SATURDAY FA CUP: The Striker previews the FA Cup third round clashes between SUNDERLAND v NEWCASTLE and MIDDLESBROUGH v ASTON VILLA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SUNDERLAND v NEWCASTLE
12.45pm We have a fantastic FA Cup Saturday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s an exceptionally busy day, as it always is on FA Cup Third Round Saturday, however two fixtures really catch the eye. Sunderland v Newcastle was undoubtedly one of the highlights of the draw and that’s where we start. Old enemies meet for the first time since May 2016; a lot has changed since then but Sunderland will feel that they have an excellent chance of an upset here. Newcastle have been really struggling lately, especially away from home. Newcastle come into the game as the odds on favourites, but I’m sure there will be plenty of willing layers. The away win is 1.78 with Sunderland 4.5 and the draw is also 4.5 at the time of writing. Obviously there is a gulf in class between the sides, but Newcastle have had major issues away from home all season. They’ve only had one win in the Premier League away from home all season, albeit a headline grabbing 8-0 win against Sheffield United – who have been the worst side in the Premier League this season in fairness. Since then Newcastle have gone seven away Premier League games without a win and they haven’t had a difficult fixture list either.
The Geordies had to settle for draws with West Ham and Wolves, and then lost to Bournemouth, Everton, Spurs, Luton and Liverpool. You can forgive them the Liverpool loss of course, but they conceded the highest xG figure of the season in the Premier League – they were clearly all over the place and it could have easily been ten goals for Liverpool – that’s not being over the top either! The big question here of course is can Sunderland take advantage? They sit sixth in the Championship table, and they seem likely to make the playoffs at the moment. Their average xG created is a very good 1.62 – that’s the third best attacking figure in the Championship and they have been solid at the back too. On paper, Newcastle should win this given they’ve been playing at a much higher level but I really feel that the 1.78 is too short here given their issues away from home. The atmosphere is going to be fantastic, Sunderland have been playing very good football in the Championship and it’s likely they’ll come into this game with more confidence than Newcastle!
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Sunderland at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SunNew
MIDDLESBROUGH v ASTON VILLA
5.30pm We finish the day with another Championship v Premier League clash on TV as Middlesbrough host Aston Villa. These two sides are having very different seasons; Middlesbrough have been struggling in the Championship – after finishing fourth last season they now sit down in 12th. While they are only four points off Sunderland who sit in sixth, there’s definitely a lot of negativity around the club this season. Michael Catterick seems to be doing a great job though – for example their average xG created is 1.58 which is pretty much playoff places standard. The major issue for Middlesbrough this season however is that they have been leaking goals from everywhere. They are conceding more than they should looking at their xG figures, and they have just been sloppy in general at the back. It will be interesting to see what kind of XI Unai Emery decided to name here with Aston Villa sitting in second place in the Premier League, just three points behind Liverpool. You could even argue that Villa should actually be top – they dropped points at home to Sheffield United and then lost to Manchester United after going 2-0 up; on paper they were two games they should have won really. Emery has Villa playing some excellent football this season, but he could rest players here.
I would be keen to keep stakes reasonably small on this one until seeing the team news. At the time of writing, Aston Villa are the odds on favourites at 1.61 with Middlesbrough 5.9 and the draw is 4.5. Villa have been superb this season in the Premier League, there’s no getting away from that, however I would like to see the team news before taking the 1.61. Middlesbrough have only been conceding an average xG of 1.16 at home in the Championship this season which is solid form, however I accept they have been conceding more goals than the stats say they should! I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here because Over 2.5 goals looks a nice value bet at 1.6 or bigger. It’s only one tick lower than the Villa win but I expect an open game here. We have two decent attacking sides and I can’t see either of them employing cagey tactics here. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see goals.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MidAst
