SATURDAY FA CUP: The Striker previews EVERTON v LUTON TOWN and FULHAM v NEWCASTLE both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EVERTON V LUTON TOWN
3pm The FA Cup Fourth Round continues on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with two all Premier League clashes to enjoy on Saturday. We start the action with Everton hosting Luton Town, and if this fixture landed in the Premier League it would be a huge relegation clash. As things stand after the Premier League Winter Break, Everton sit just outside the bottom three while Luton are only one point behind them. Luton actually have a game in hand too, so things could get very interesting over the next few weeks. Obviously Everton have been playing some very good football this season, especially at home, but they find themselves under pressure after the ten point deduction. You can understand why they come into this game as the odds on favourites – the home win is trading 1.55 with Luton Town 7.2 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. You have to give Luton some credit for getting as many points as they have so far, even if they still remain odds on to go down. Their stats make for very poor reading – they have an average xG created of 0.94 which is the second worst attacking figure and then they have an average xG conceded of 1.79 which is the second worst defensive figure.
It’s clear that they are the second worst side in the Premier League behind Sheffield United, but to their credit they seem the only side within the bottom three at the moment with a realistic chance of staying up. I feel both sides will be watching Nottingham Forest carefully for the next few weeks! Premier League sides take a dim view on the FA Cup these days, but I don’t see any reason for a weaker than usual starting XI from either side here. The biggest factor here for me is Everton’s home form – at home in the Premier League this season they have an average xG created of 1.63 which is pretty impressive. It’s worth mentioning however that Luton did beat them 2-1 here earlier in the season – Everton can say that they were unlucky there though as they finished the game with an xG of 2.32. Since that home game, Everton have only been beaten here by Manchester United and Manchester City. The 1.55 does make appeal but I do feel we’ll see an open game here. I couldn’t put anyone off the Everton bet, however Both Teams To Score looks a nice price at 2.0. We saw plenty of chances when the sides met earlier in the season and we can see goals again.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveLtn
FULHAM V NEWCASTLE
7pm We have no fixture around the 5-30pm slot which is surprising, and we go straight to a 7pm kick off as Fulham host Newcastle. This should be another interesting all Premier League clash, and it’s another big Cup game for Fulham this week. They went up against Liverpool in the Carabao Cup Semi-Final on Wednesday night, and although they gave a good account of themselves in a 1-1 draw at Anfield they had lost the first leg 2-1 so crashed out. Fulham will have to take the positives of a great Cup run; Liverpool were massive odds on favourites in fairness. They’ll need to dust themselves off and go again here – we have a much more open market. Newcastle come into the game as the favourites at 2.36 with Fulham 3.05 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. Newcastle have had a number of issues this season and while Fulham haven’t been overly impressive there is only five points between them in the Premier League. It’s been quite the drop off for Newcastle this season, and Eddie Howe really needs something good to happen soon otherwise he will be feeling the pressure. Both sides have been poor at the back this season, so I would expect an open game here.
Fulham’s average xG conceded is 1.55 quite Newcastle’s is just marginally under that at 1.51. Obviously Fulham are basically a mid-to-low table standard, but Newcastle have had major issues away from home this season. Their average xG conceded away from home in the Premier League is as high as 1.79! That has meant they have lost six of their last seven games, and it’s clear that run has knocked their confidence between they lost 3-1 to Nottingham Forest at home too. Their only win in that run? A 3-0 win against Fulham! Newcastle absolutely bossed that game, but I do feel home advantage has been key for them this season. They’ve only actually managed one away win all season in the Premier League; they did that in style too beating Sheffield United 8-0! I do like goals here, and Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.79 which is tempting, however I feel the best value position is the Newcastle lay here at 2.36. They just haven’t been good enough away from home to justify those short odds.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Fulham at 2.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FlmNew
