PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews MANCHESTER CITY V CRYSTAL PALACE, NOTTINGHAM FOREST V EVERTON and ARSENAL V BRETFORD with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER CITY V CRYSTAL PALACE
12.30pm Another fascinating Premier League Saturday rolls around on Betdaq Betting Exchange! It’s a massive day in the Top Four race with Manchester City and Nottingham Forest both at home – City come into the weekend sitting in sixth but obviously there’s very little between them and Chelsea in fourth. There’s only two points between Chelsea, Newcastle, Manchester City and Aston Villa so the race for fourth will go right down to the wire. That’s a great thing as well given the title race is over and the relegation battle has also been decided, so at least we’ll get some drama in the race for Champions League football! We start the day with City hosting Crystal Palace, and with Palace in good form this could be a very interesting game. City just haven’t been themselves this season as we’ve all seen. Nevertheless, they come into the game as the odds on favourites – City are trading 1.55 with Crystal Palace 6.4 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. Palace have been on a great run recently – they won four of their last five Premier League games – indeed they’ve only lost four times in their last 22 games after a very slow start to the Premier League this season.
Usually, this would be a bread-and-butter win for City but things have been different this season. I really wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.55 on City here – even in the Manchester Derby they were lacklustre, and I went into that game saying it was far more important to City than United given the situation in the top Four race! I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Palace win here to be honest; City have just been too easy to play through this season. However, I’m going to stay out of the match odds market here – I wouldn’t put anyone off a City lay but I feel we’ll see an open and entertaining game here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.62 and Both Teams To Score is 1.76. City have been so sloppy at the back this season, I like the Both Teams To Score option at 1.76. Much has been made of Manchester United being a laughing stock this season but they’ve only conceded one more goal than City! Palace have been creating enough to score here, and they are conceding a decent volume of chances too – their average xG conceded this season is 1.43 so we should see an end-to-end game here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.76 with Betdaq Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MncCry
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V EVERTON
3pm We have three games kicking off at 3pm, and the pick of them is easily Nottingham Forest hosting Everton. Brighton will be expected to beat Leicester given they have home advantage and who isn’t beating Leicester at the moment, while Aston Villa be also be expected to beat Southampton even away from home. As I said above, it’s a massive day in the Top Four race and we could see a lot of movement today depending on the results for Manchester City, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa. Forest are having a dream season, but they are massively over-performing. They are on such a run of confidence and momentum, it’s actually hard to judge their games from a betting point of view. Their stats are really not impressive, but they keep grinding out results. They have an average xG created of 1.41 which in the bottom seven attacking figures, and they have an average xG conceded of 1.67 which is in the bottom six defensive figures. Those stats and getting Champions League football is remarkable; there’s no other word for it. Forest are over-performing at both ends of the pitch, but especially at the back.
Their actual goals conceded average is only 1.19, which is a huge difference between that and 1.67 as the xG figure. Forest come into the game as the favourites at 2.2 with Everton 3.9 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Everton broke their unbeaten run with a 1-0 loss away to Liverpool, but you could forgive anyone that given how good Liverpool have been this season – they were able to grind out a 1-1 draw last weekend against Arsenal though. David Moyes has really restored the confidence and morale around the club – it’s good to see him back after everything he’s been through to be honest. I’m going to keep stakes low here because Forest just keep on getting results, but as I highlighted their performance levels are average at best, and they come up against a solid Everton side under Moyes here. I’d have Forest much bigger than their current 2.2, and I’m very happy to lay them from a value point of view – just keeping stakes a little limited.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Nottingham Forest to beat Everton at 2.2 with Betdaq Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NfoEve
ARSENAL V BRENTFORD
5.30pm We finish Saturday with Arsenal hosting Brentford. The Emirates is going to be still rocking after the incredible scenes here midweek in the Champions League! An incredible 3-0 win over Real Madrid was the stuff of dreams; they needed to bring a result to Madrid to have a chance of getting through, and they’ve gone close to putting the tie to bed. The two Declan Rice free kicks were special; very interesting that one of the coaches was telling him to cross it – it highlights again that football is almost too micromanaged these days, and when that happens it takes away the brilliant moments. Good job Saka told him to give it a hit, the xG was low so the coach might have been “right” but what a moment, and football is about brilliant moments after all! It’s hard to see anything other than a Liverpool win in the Premier League this season, but a loss last weekend against Fulham would have kept the most optimistic Arsenal fans interested for the time being anyway – it would have been better if Arsenal beat Everton but here we are! Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.63 with Brentford 5.9 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing.
We should have an entertaining game here. It will be interesting to see what XI Arteta names too; will he already have one eye on the second leg in Madrid next week? He probably would have rested a lot more players if Liverpool beat Fulham, but the door hasn’t fully slammed shut yet. Brentford have been one of the most entertaining sides to watch in the Premier League this season. They have been woeful at the back though – their average xG conceded is as high as 1.86! That’s the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season, only Southampton have conceded more chances. So far this season Brentford have been massively over-performing. They are scoring more than they should, and sides haven’t been converting their chances against them either. Looking at the stats, it’s hard to see past Arsenal here but given this fixture falls between the Champions League Quarter-Finals, I’m going to reduce stakes a little. However, they are still my most confident bet of the day and the 1.63 looks too big to ignore.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal to beat Brentford at 1.63 with Betdaq Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsBtf
