🆕 THE STRIKER: Got off to a flying start with his selections on the Premier League. He now previews Saturday action which starts with WATFORD v LEICESTER at 12.30pm. Don’t miss his preview with recommended BETDAQ bets and extended match stats.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
WATFORD V LEICESTER CITY
12.30pm We had to wait quite a while, but a Saturday of Premier League action is finally here! The way they have staggered the starting times is brilliant for football fans and now it’s time to find some value winners. This should be a good game. Watford went into lockdown with only one win in seven games, with that win ironically coming against Liverpool of all teams! Leicester have been excellent away from home this season and the behind closed doors element should suit them here.
Leicester are scoring 2 goals per away game and actually conceding less than one goal per game – however their xG is 1.31. Watford have been conceding more goals at home than Leicester away; however, Watford’s numbers aren’t as bad as their league position this season. xG takes them away from the fight at the bottom of the table. I’m very surprised under 2.5 goals is odds against here, it’s 2.04 with BETDAQ Exchange. All the numbers point towards a tight game here. Watford are reasonably solid at home and with Leicester solid at the back, I expect a quiet affair to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.04 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwatlec
MATCH STATS
- Watford have won their last three home Premier League games against Leicester City, with each victory coming via a 2-1 scoreline.
- Leicester have won just two of their last 10 league visits to Watford (D1 L7), winning most recently during their title-winning season in 2015-16.
- Nine of the 11 Premier League meetings between Watford and Leicester City have been won by the home side (82%), including each of the last seven. Among fixtures to have been played 10+ times, only Birmingham City vs Middlesbrough (90%) has seen a higher percentage of home wins.
- 24% of the Premier League goals scored in fixtures between Leicester and Watford have been penalties (6/25), the highest ratio of any of the 469 fixtures to have seen at least 20 goals scored.
- Watford have won just one of their last seven Premier League games (D2 L4), though that victory was in their last home game and came against runaway leaders Liverpool (3-0).
- Since Nigel Pearson’s first home match in charge of Watford (22nd December), only Liverpool (18) have won more points in home Premier League games than the Hornets (13 – W4 D1 L1).
- Leicester are winless in their last three Premier League away games (D1 L2), failing to score in their last two. The Foxes last went three away league games without a goal back in February 2017 under Claudio Ranieri (a run of four).
- Watford have failed to score in a league-high 13 different Premier League games this season. However, they’re yet to go consecutive league games without a goal under Nigel Pearson.
- Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored 99 Premier League goals; his next strike will see him become the 29th player to reach a century in the competition, and the 16th to do so for a single club.
- Watford’s Troy Deeney has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League home games (4 goals, 2 assists), as many as he had in his previous 25 at Vicarage Road (5 goals, 1 assist).
BRIGHTON V ARSENAL
3pm Arsenal were given a footballing lesson by Manchester City on Wednesday as the Premier League returning, however they did start the game reasonably well. David Luiz came on and it all went downhill from there! Arsenal are having a “disappointing” season sitting barely in the top half, but xG actually puts them lower and it seems Arteta hasn’t improved them either. Since he came in, they have been conceding close to 2 goals per game. And here’s a stat – no other Premier League team has created fewer chances since he took over.
Brighton shouldn’t be as low as they are in the table, they are actually ahead of Arsenal in the xG table and nearly getting into the top ten. They are rock solid at home and their numbers could even be better, they have created an xG of 22 goals but only scored 17. Clearly the behind closed doors element will suit Arsenal given how poor they usually are away from home, but I still can’t get away from the Arsenal lay here at 2.42. It’s an exceptionally short price for a team badly struggling.
The Striker Says:
Four point (liability) lay Arsenal to beat Brighton at 2.42 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQbriarn
MATCH STATS
- Brighton lost their first Premier League meeting against Arsenal in October 2017 but are unbeaten in four games against the Gunners since (W2 D2).
- Arsenal are winless in their last four away league games against Brighton (D1 L3), last winning there back in April 1981.
- Brighton remain the only side without a win in the Premier League in 2020, with the Seagulls drawing six and losing three since the turn of the year.
- Brighton are unbeaten in all three of their Premier League home games against the six ever-present sides in the competition this season, beating Spurs and Everton before drawing with Chelsea.
- Arsenal have won just one of their last seven Premier League away games against south coast sides (D3 L3), winning 2-1 at Bournemouth in November 2018.
- Arsenal have lost two of their last seven Premier League games against sides starting the day in the bottom six (W2 D3), more than they had in their previous 19 such games (W15 D3 L1).
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 23 Premier League games kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday (W19 D4), since a 0-1 loss against West Brom in November 2015.
- Brighton manager Graham Potter has won his last two games against Arsenal in all competitions, winning 2-1 away with both Östersunds FK in the Europa League in February 2018 and Brighton earlier this season. His only previous home game against the Gunners was a 3-0 defeat in February 2018 with Östersunds FK.
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored both of Arsenal’s two Premier League goals at the Amex, scoring in March and December 2018. The last Gunners player to score their first three Premier League goals at a stadium was Ian Wright at The Dell in March 1994.
- Adam Webster and Neal Maupay scored Brighton’s goals in their 2-1 win at Arsenal earlier in the season – no Brighton player has ever scored home and away against the Gunners in the same campaign before.
WEST HAM V WOLVES
5.30pm West Ham have been very poor all season, and must be one of the more likely teams to go down. They sit in 16th heading into this tie but there’s barely anything in it towards the bottom of the table and their process has been very poor. xG puts them in 18th and most models say they will go down by the end of the season. David Moyes hasn’t improved them either. Maybe the break will have done them good, but if they are going to get close to this Wolves side they’ll have to show a lot of improvement.
Both sides are performing reasonably close to their xG level in terms of goals. If this game does go in line with xG, then Wolves win. The away side have been very impressive on the road this season, they have an xG of close to 2 per game and are only giving up an xG of 1.23 chances at the other end. That’s impressive, especially considering West Ham are conceding nearly two goals per home game. Wolves are close to being a Top Four on numbers – this clearly allows for the top in level of the likes of Spurs, United, Arsenal etc – but they should be odds on to beat West Ham and I’m happy to back them at 2.22.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Wolves to beat West Ham at 2.22 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwhmwlv
MATCH STATS
- West Ham United have lost their last three Premier League games against Wolves, with all defeats coming since the start of last season.
- Wolves are looking to win consecutive away league games at West Ham for the first time, having won 1-0 at London Stadium last season.
- West Ham have won just one of their last nine Premier League games (D2 L6), beating Southampton 3-1 in their last home game. They’ve not won back-to-back Premier League games at the London Stadium since September.
- West Ham have lost more points from winning positions than any other side in the Premier League this season (22), while Wolves have won more points from losing positions than anyone else this term (21).
- Starting with a 0-2 loss at Wolves in December, West Ham have lost their last eight Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top half of the table, with their last such victory coming at Chelsea in November.
- Wolves are unbeaten in five Premier League games (W2 D3), keeping a clean sheet in four of those matches. They’d only kept a clean sheet in four of their first 24 league games this season.
- Wolves are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League matches in London (W4 D5) since losing 0-5 at Fulham in March 2012. Only Liverpool (current run of 10 games) and Manchester United (3 separate runs of 10+ games) have gone on longer unbeaten runs in the capital among non-London sides in the competition.
- Wolves manager Nuno Espírito Santo’s best 100%-win record against an opponent in his league managerial career is against West Ham, winning all three games against the Hammers.
- In his English league career, West Ham’s Michail Antonio has only played more minutes against Arsenal (542) without scoring than he has against Wolves (516).
- Wolves’ Diogo Jota has been involved in four goals in his last three Premier League appearances (3 goals, 1 assist), more than he had in his first 22 games this season (3 goals, 0 assists).
BOURNEMOUTH V CRYSTAL PALACE
7.45pm It’s fair to say that Crystal Palace are one of the sides with nothing to play for as we finish the season. They could push for a Europa spot but are unlikely to achieve it and won’t be getting into a fight to go down after three straight wins before lockdown. On the other hand, Bournemouth have everything to play for as they start the weekend in the bottom three. They would have been happy to see Villa draw their game in hand, but things are so tight that one win could push them into 15th if other results go their way.
Looking at the goal stats from both sides, this game screams unders and I’m surprised to see Under 2.5 goals as big as 1.8 on BETDAQ Exchange. Bournemouth have been poor this season and their league position reflects that, but there’s very little goals between these too. Bournemouth have scored 17 in 14 home games, while Palace have scored as few as 14 in 14 away games – and that’s in line with xG too. I lean towards Bournemouth getting a win however Under 2.5 goals is the stand out value bet here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQbrmcpl
MATCH STATS
- Bournemouth have lost their last two Premier League games against Crystal Palace, though both defeats came away at Selhurst Park.
- Crystal Palace are looking to complete a league double over Bournemouth for only the third time, previously doing so in 1935-36 and 1987-88; this is the 37th season they’ve met.
- Since their 1-0 win at Chelsea in December, Bournemouth have taken just eight points from their subsequent 12 Premier League games (W2 D2 L8) – no side has won fewer points in that time. However, all eight of those points have been won in home games.
- Crystal Palace have won their last three Premier League games, each by a 1-0 scoreline. They last won four in a row in August 2018, while they’ve never won four consecutive top-flight games without conceding.
- No side has kept fewer clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Bournemouth (4). Indeed, the Cherries have conceded at least once in each of their last 12 Premier League games, the longest current run in the competition.
- Crystal Palace haven’t scored more than twice in any of their 29 Premier League games this season. The last time they managed this was on the final day of the 2018-19 season in
a 5-3 win against Bournemouth. - So far in 2019-20, Bournemouth are averaging their lowest average possession (44.3%), lowest passing accuracy (75.9%), lowest shots on target per game (3.4) and highest shots on target faced per game (5.3) figures in any of their five Premier League campaigns.
- Crystal Palace’s Patrick van Aanholt has scored more Premier League goals against Bournemouth than he has vs any other side (3). The Dutchman netted home and away against them for the Eagles last season.
- After a run of 15 Premier League games without a goal, Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson has scored three in his last six. However, at home the England forward has netted just one goal in his last 10 Premier League matches.
- Jordan Ayew’s eight Premier League goals have been worth 14 points to Crystal Palace this season. Crystal Palace’s record when Ayew scores this season is W6 D2 L0, with five of the Ghanaian’s strikes being the winning goal of the game.
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