THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games which get underway at 12.30pm with NORWICH v WEST HAM – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

NORWICH V WEST HAM

12.30pm It’s another Premier League Saturday jam packed with action! Who else is loving the new staggered kick off times? It’s certainly much better from a fans point of view and hopefully the new times are here to stay. We need to see more games on TV! We kick off the day with Norwich hosting West Ham. The Hammers cost us money midweek when they lost to Burnley, but in fairness they were much the better side – they just didn’t score. They won the game 2.14 to 0.97 on xG. I like them again today at a shade of odds against.

I just feel that you have to be against Norwich at the moment. They’re on a big losing run since returning from lockdown and have nothing to play for. I noted at the time that the loss to United in the FA Cup would have been seasoning ending result and we’ve collected three times opposing them since. I’m happy to oppose them again with a West Ham side in excellent form – they may have lost to Burnley on paper but their last three xG’s have been 2.14, 2.33 and 2.38. They play to a similar level and they win.

The Striker Says:
Four points win West Ham to beat Norwich at 2.04 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQnorwhu

MATCH STATS

  • Norwich are unbeaten in their last 17 home league games against West Ham (W9 D8) since a 0-1 loss in February 1973 – they’ve never gone 18 without defeat against an opponent in their league history.
  • West Ham are looking for their first league double over Norwich since 1972-73, following their 2-0 win at the London Stadium in August.
  • Defeat here will see Norwich relegated from the Premier League for the fifth time since the competition began in 1992-93 – more than any other side.
  • Norwich have lost each of their last six Premier League games, scoring just one goal in that run. Only in April/May 1995 (seven games) have they had a longer losing run in the competition.
  • Norwich have scored just five goals in their 14 Premier League games so far in 2020, and never more than once in a match. Indeed, the Canaries have failed to score in a league-high 16 Premier League games this season.
  • West Ham had 21 shots in their 0-1 home defeat against Burnley, their most in a Premier League game this season and most in a game without scoring since December 2016 against Leicester City, when they had 24.
  • West Ham have earned just one point from their last 24 available on the road in the Premier League (W0 D1 L7), though that point came in their last away game against Newcastle.
  • West Ham have lost 19 Premier League games this season, with the Hammers only losing more in 2006-07 (21) and 2013-14 (20).
  • Emiliano Buendía scored his first Premier League goal for Norwich in his 33rd appearance against Watford last time out. He last scored in back-to-back games for the Canaries in March 2019.
  • West Ham’s Michail Antonio has been involved in three goals in his last three Premier League games (2 goals, 1 assist) – just one fewer than in his first 17 appearances in the competition this season (2 goals, 2 assists).

WATFORD V NEWCASTLE

12.30pm Watford finally collected three points last weekend and that is a boost for them in their battle to stay up. We can’t get carried away with that result though as it came against Norwich who have been woeful since lockdown. Newcastle were hammered 5-0 against Manchester City midweek but we seen that result coming with an Any Other Home Win back of City as Newcastle have been very poor this season – they have just been getting away with it. xG has Newcastle bottom of the table.

Even allowing for the poor performances of Newcastle, I feel Watford at 1.87 is one of the worst prices of the day. Clearly there’s a “need to win” factored in but they haven’t been playing well since lockdown. They didn’t exactly blow Norwich away last weekend either, and in their three games previous they created xG’s of 0.58, 0.78 and 0.84. I don’t like this Newcastle side in general, but I have to lay Watford at the odds here. It’s an awful price.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Watford at 1.87 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwatnew

MATCH STATS

  • Watford are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League home games against Newcastle (W2 D3), more than they’ve faced any other side without defeat at Vicarage Road in the competition.
  • After winning two of their first three Premier League meetings with Watford (D1), Newcastle have won just one of their last eight against the Hornets (D3 L4).
  • Watford’s comeback win against Norwich last time out ended a run of three consecutive defeats and five games without a win in the Premier League. The Hornets last won back- to-back league games in January.
  • Only Burnley and Manchester City have kept more home clean sheets than Watford this season (7). Overall, the Hornets have kept nine clean sheets in the Premier League this season, only keeping more in the competition in 2015-16 (11).
  • Before the break, Newcastle’s 29 Premier League games this season had seen just 2.3 goals-per-game (F25 A41), the third lowest average in the division. Since the restart, their five games have seen 3.8 goals scored on average (F10 A9).
  • Newcastle are averaging just 37.5% possession in the Premier League this season, the lowest in the division. It’s also the Magpies’ lowest figure in a single Premier League campaign since this data is available (2003-04).
  • Under Nigel Pearson, Watford have converted 12% of their shots in the Premier League (22 goals from 183 shots). Under Quique Sánchez Flores this season it was just 6% (7/117), and just 3.6% under Javier Gracia (2/55).
  • Newcastle’s 0-5 defeat to Man City was only the sixth time in 426 Premier League games that a side managed by Steve Bruce had shipped five goals in a game. Despite this, Bruce has the worst goal difference of any manager in Premier League history (-128 – F437 A565).
  • Danny Welbeck’s winner against Norwich last time out was his first Premier League goal for Watford, and his first overall in the competition in 682 days. He last scored in consecutive Premier League appearances back in February 2016.
  • Despite both players only playing 22 of Newcastle’s 34 Premier League games this season, Jonjo Shelvey (6 goals, 1 assist) and Allan Saint-Maximin (3 goals, 4 assists) have registered more goal involvements than any other Newcastle player this season. They’ve also created more chances than any other player at the club (Shelvey 38, Saint-Maximin 29).

LIVERPOOL V BURNLEY

3pm I have to say that Liverpool have been a mystery to me recently! We’ve lost our last three bets involving them and they continue to win playing some poor (for them) football. They beat Brighton 3-1 but lost on xG 2.88 to 2.68 and managed to beat Aston Villa 2-0 creating an xG of only 0.82. They have celebrated the title too much, and perhaps they will get back to business soon. They are short to win here and I couldn’t invest in the handicap given their performances.

Burnley managed to beat West Ham midweek although they lost the game 2.14 to 0.97 on xG. I’m surprise to see Both Teams To Score odds against here at 2.06. Liverpool have been giving up a host of chances recently and Burnley are the type of side that keep trying. They aren’t very creative but they can get on the scoresheet against a lacklustre Liverpool side. Their loss 5-0 away to City is a worry and with Liverpool hard to predict it’s worth keeping stakes to a minimum here.

The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 2.06 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQlivbur

MATCH STATS

  • Liverpool have won 82% of their Premier League games against Burnley (9/11), their best winning ratio against a side they’ve faced at least 10 times in the competition.
  • Burnley have taken just one point from their last 18 available away against Liverpool in the top-flight (W0 D1 L5), with their last league win at Anfield coming in September 1974 (1-0).
  • Liverpool’s current unbeaten home run in the Premier League stands at 57 games, while the Reds have won each of their last 24 at Anfield in the competition. The Reds have netted 149 goals in those 57 games, while conceding just 32 in return.
  • Victory here will see Liverpool equal the record for most home wins in a single Premier League campaign (18), while it will also put them a step closer to becoming just the second team in top-flight history to win 100% of their home games in a single season, after Sunderland in 1891-92 (13/13).
  • Burnley have won 14 Premier League games this season, equalling their best season for wins in the competition in 2017-18. They last won more in a top-flight season in 1974-75, winning 17 on their way to finishing 10th.
  • Liverpool have won 30 of their 34 Premier League games this season, equalling their best ever tally from a single top-flight campaign (also in 1978-79 and 2018-19).
  • Both Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mané have scored four goals in their last three Premier League games for Liverpool against Burnley, with each player netting a brace in this exact fixture last season as the Reds won 4-2.
  • Burnley’s Nick Pope has kept 14 Premier League clean sheets this season, more than any other goalkeeper. The last English goalkeeper to keep more than 14 in a season was Joe Hart in 2015-16 for Man City (15), while no English keeper has kept an away league clean sheet at Anfield since Jack Butland in April 2018 for Stoke City.
  • Against Brighton, Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah registered his 100th Premier League goal involvement for the club in his 104th appearance (73 goals, 27 assists). Only Alan Shearer at Blackburn Rovers (100 apps) has reached 100 goals/assists for a single club in fewer appearances in Premier League history.
  • Mohamed Salah has 19 Premier League goals this season, and could become the first Liverpool player to score 20+ in three consecutive top-flight campaigns since Roger Hunt (4 between 1962-63 and 1965-66).

SHEFFIELD UNITED V CHELSEA

5.30pm After coming back from lockdown with some terrible performances, Sheffield United have put themselves back in the race for Europe with a 1-0 win over Wolves during the week. They won’t be aiming for Top Four anymore however they must fancy their chances of finishing 6th. They finish the season with something to play for now! A few more losses and they wouldn’t have finished in the top half which would have been a great shame after their strong start to the season.

Chelsea games have been very entertaining lately and I’m surprise to see over 2.5 goals odds against on BETDAQ Exchange. I can understand the price; it’s because Sheffield United have had tight games recently but Chelsea’s games have been very open. I expect Sheffield United to get on the scoresheet here now they have their confidence back and Chelsea have been excellent going forward this season. Overs looks nice value at 2.04.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.04 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQsheche

MATCH STATS

  • After winning their first three Premier League games against Chelsea between 1992 and 1993, Sheffield United are winless in their last four against the Blues (D1 L3).
  • Chelsea won their last league visit to Bramall Lane, 2-0 in October 2006. They’ve not won consecutive away league games against Sheffield United since October 1965.
  • None of the last 14 league meetings between Sheffield United and Chelsea in Sheffield have been drawn, with the Blades winning eight to Chelsea’s six since a 1-1 draw in August 1963.
  • Chelsea have won their last five Premier League games in Yorkshire and are unbeaten in their last nine (W7 D2) in the county since a 0-2 loss at Leeds in December 2002.
  • Against Wolves last time out, Sheffield United won 1-0 for the seventh time in the Premier League this season – more than any other side. The Blades are looking to secure four consecutive Premier League home wins for the first time.
  • Chelsea have scored at least twice in each of their last eight Premier League games – only once have the Blues had a longer such run in the competition (10 games between May-September 2009).
  • Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham has scored three goals in his two league appearances against Sheffield United, though this will be his first match at Bramall Lane.
  • Tammy Abraham has scored nine away goals for Chelsea in the Premier League this season – only Didier Drogba (15 in 2009-10) and Nicolas Anelka (11 in 2008-09) have netted more on the road in a single campaign for the Blues.
  • After a run of 72 games without a goal in all competitions, Sheffield United’s John Egan has scored in back-to-back games for the Blades, netting an 80th minute leveller vs Burnley and a 90th minute winner vs Wolves.
  • Chelsea’s Olivier Giroud has scored four goals in his last six Premier League games, including in each of the last two. He’d only scored in four of his previous 40 in the competition, while he last scored in three consecutive league games in January 2017 (4, with Arsenal).

BRIGHTON V MANCHESTER CITY

8pm Brighton had a massive win against Norwich recently and that has put them a little away from the danger in the bottom five. They performed superbly against Liverpool, winning the game on xG and it will be interesting to see how they perform tonight. The Champions League draw was made on Friday and surely it won’t be long before City turn their attentions there. That has to be their target at the moment and I will watch their fixtures with interest to see does their level drop off.

There was no signs of that midweek when they hammered Newcastle 5-0, however that was coming on paper. I think we’ll see a very open game here with Brighton “going for it” like they did against Liverpool. City have nothing to gain at the moment and with their talent on show, we could see some very entertaining games to finish their season. Over 3.5 goals is worth a small bet at 2.4.

The Striker Says:
One point win Over 3.5 goals at 2.4 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQbhamci

MATCH STATS

  • Brighton have lost all five of their Premier League meetings with Manchester City, conceding 15 goals and scoring just twice in return.
  • Man City haven’t lost any of their last eight top-flight league meetings with Brighton (W7 D1), since a 1-4 loss away from home in October 1981.
  • Brighton have lost three of their last four Premier League home games (W1), as many as they had in their previous 13 at the Amex Stadium (W4 D6 L3).
  • Manchester City have lost their last three Premier League away games, last losing four in a row on the road in April 2015 under Manuel Pellegrini.
  • Since winning 6-1 at Aston Villa in January, Man City have scored just three goals in their last six Premier League away games. In these six games, the Citizens have had 99 shots (30 on target), and have an expected goals total of nearly 13.
  • Manchester City have had 654 shots in the Premier League this season, at least 87 more than any other side. They’re averaging 19.2 shots-per-game in the Premier League this term, the most by a side since Liverpool in 2012-13 (19.4).
  • Man City’s win against Newcastle last time out was the 18th time the Citizens have scored 5+ goals in a Premier League game under Pep Guardiola (148 games). Only Alex Ferguson (44) and Arsène Wenger (41) have seen their sides net 5+ goals more often in the competition.
  • Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne is just two assists away from becoming only the second player in Premier League history to record 20 in a single season, after Thierry Henry in 2002-03. The Belgian is also currently on 98 goal involvements in his Premier League career (34 goals, 64 assists).
  • Phil Foden has scored four goals in five Premier League games since the restart, more than any other Manchester City player.
  • Leandro Trossard has scored in back-to-back Premier League games for Brighton, having netted in just two of his previous 25 in the competition.

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