THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The action starts at 12.30pm with BURNLEY v EVERTON.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

BURNLEY V EVERTON

12.30pm After an excellent November with an ROI of 26% following on from an ROI of 23% in October, we tackle December with a brilliant Saturday in the Premier League! All football bets are 0% commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today, and we have some excellent games ahead. We start the day with Burnley hosting Everton hoping to recover quickly after getting hammered by Man City last weekend. Everton lost 1-0 to Leeds and their bubble has been well and truly burst after a very promising start to the season. They’ve only managed one win in their last six now and that came against Fulham when they were lucky with Fulham missing a penalty for a draw.

This is a tricky fixture to call because I want to be against Everton at the moment – they are giving away too many chances looking at the xG figures. For example, Leeds beat them 1-0 but their xG was 3.38 so it could have been much worse. Newcastle racked up an xG of 2.78 against them too. The problem from a betting point of view is do you want to trust Burnley? They are in the bottom three and shipped five goals last weekend. I’m going to have a small Everton lay at the odds, because prior to that Man City defeat Burnley beat Crystal Palace here and in general they have been creating a reasonable amount of chances. They aren’t a flash side who create a lot, but with Everton having obvious problems at the back the percentage call is a small Everton lay for me.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Everton to beat Burnley at 2.04 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQburEve

MATCH STATS

  • Burnley have won four of their six Premier League home games against Everton (L2), winning this exact fixture 1-0 last season.
  • Everton have never kept a clean sheet in their six Premier League away games against Burnley (W2 L4). Only at QPR (7) have they played more games in the competition without recording a clean sheet.
  • None of the 12 Premier League meetings between Burnley (5 wins) and Everton (7) have been drawn, with only Man Utd v Wigan (16), Aston Villa v Derby (14) and Man Utd v Watford (14) being played more often in the competition without a draw.
  • No side has scored fewer Premier League goals than Burnley this season (4), while the Clarets have also attempted the fewest shots (83) and shots on target (24) in the competition so far (albeit having played a game fewer than most).
  • Having kept a clean sheet in their opening weekend victory at Spurs, Everton have now conceded in each of their last nine Premier League matches, with only Sheffield United (13) on a longer current run without a shutout in the competition.
  • Burnley are looking to win consecutive Premier League home games for the first time since October 2019, the second win of which came against Everton. However, when conceding at least one goal at home, Burnley have managed to win just one of their last 18 Premier League games (D3 L14), beating Leicester 2-1 in January.
  • In their first five Premier League games this season, Everton had an expected goals (xG) total of 9.9, and had scored 14 goals from 64 shots (21.9% conversion rate). Over their last five league games, they have an xG total of just 5.5, and have converted just 9.6% of their shots (5/52).
  • Burnley have had the most build up attacks against them (sequences of 10+ passes that end with a shot or touch in the box) in the Premier League this season (37), while at the other end of the pitch the Clarets have had fewer build up attacks than any other side (5).
  • This game will be Burnley manager Sean Dyche’s 200th Premier League match in charge, making him the 35th different manager to reach that milestone. Only four of the previous 15 English managers to reach the milestone have won their 200th match (Alan Pardew, Roy Hodgson, Steve Bruce and Glenn Hoddle).
  • Everton striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored the opening goal in more different Premier League games than any other player this season (4).

MANCHESTER CITY V FULHAM

3pm You’ve had a tough start the Premier League season but you finally get out of the bottom three – then look at the fixture list to see Man City away is the next game! The markets can only see one result here, with City trading as short as 1.13 at the time of writing. Fulham did well to beat Leicester last weekend, and in fairness they have been showing some signs of promise in their last few fixtures. Their xG figures from their last six games read; 1.98, 1.90, 1.89, 1.53, 1.04 and 1.82. They are good figures and as the saying goes “score goals, win games.” Their main issues have come at the back however, and that’s something they’re going to have to correct if they want to stay in the Premier League.

It’s clear to everyone now that Man City haven’t been at their best this season. They turned on the style against Burnley last weekend when scoring five times, but if haven’t seen that as much this season compared to previous seasons. They had to settle for a 0-0 draw against Porto midweek in the Champions League; although xG says they were very unlucky not to win the game as they completely bossed it with an xG of 2.87 to 0.04. I feel that the bigger sides will give City problems this season, but with Fulham leaking goals at the back it feels like this will be one way traffic. I also feel that Fulham can score given their chances created, and instead of backing a very high line in the goals market I’m going to have a small bet on Both Teams To Score at 2.14.

The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 2.14 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQmciFul

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester City have won each of their last nine meetings with Fulham in all competitions, netting 27 goals while conceding just three in this run.
  • Fulham are winless in their last 15 meetings with Man City in all competitions (D3 L12) since a 3-1 Premier League win at the Etihad in April 2009.
  • Manchester City have only failed to score in one of their 26 Premier League meetings with Fulham (W13 D9 L4), doing so in a goalless draw at the Etihad in March 2004.
    o 75% of Fulham’s Premier League victories against Man City have come away from home (3/4), with the Cottagers winning at the Etihad in April 2006 (2-1), April 2008 (3-2) and April 2009 (3-1).
  • Man City are looking to win back-to-back Premier League games for the first time this season, netting as many goals in their 5-0 victory against Burnley last time out as they had in their previous six Premier League games combined.
  • Manchester City’s 5-0 victory over Burnley last time out was the 45th time the Citizens have scored 5+ goals in a single Premier League match, with only Manchester United (46) doing so more often in the competition’s history. 21 of these 45 have been under Pep Guardiola’s management.
  • Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 39 Premier League home games against promoted sides (W35 D4), winning the last seven in a row by an aggregate score of 21-1. Only Chelsea (43 between 2001-2015) and Man Utd (40 between 2001-2015) have had longer unbeaten home runs against promoted sides in the competition, with Man City’s last such defeat coming in February 2007 (0-2 vs Reading).
  • Following their 2-1 win at Leicester last time out, Fulham are looking to pick up consecutive away Premier League victories for the first time since August 2013, while they last won two in a row on the road within the same season back in May 2011.
  • Riyad Mahrez is Man City’s highest Premier League goalscorer this season with four goals, netting a hat-trick last time out against Burnley. Each of the Algerian’s last eight Premier League goals have been scored at the Etihad.
  • Since his Premier League debut in August 2013, Kevin De Bruyne has provided 71 assists in the Premier League, at least eight more than any other player – this despite the Belgian playing just three games across the first two seasons in that run.

WEST HAM V MANCHESTER UNITED

5.30pm A fascinating fixture. This is my highlight of the day! United have come through two tough away fixtures when beating Everton and then coming from 2-0 down against Southampton to win last weekend. I laid United last weekend at around about the same odds at they are trading this weekend and I must say, it’s very tempting to lay them again. They might have come out on top against Southampton but we were in a fantastic trading position at 2-0 Southampton and United won’t come back from those situations all the time. Plus West Ham have been in excellent form this season, creating plenty of chances and they can have success against this United side.

West Ham have been putting in some eye-catching xG performances all season; however they were very lucky to beat Aston Villa 2-1 last weekend. They actually lost 2.72 to 0.59 on xG which has been their worst performance for a while. United have been very unreliable for a while now and I just can’t have them at prices like 2.12 away to sides playing decent football like West Ham. Perhaps it’s a bet to go mad about, but it’s definitely worth laying Man Untied this weekend at the odds.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat West Ham at 2.12 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwhuMun

MATCH STATS

  • West Ham have won their last two Premier League home games against Manchester United – they’ve not won three in a row at home against the Red Devils in the top-flight since a run of four between January 1974-December 1977.
  • After a run of 11 wins in 12 Premier League games against West Ham (D1) between 2008-2014, Manchester United have won just three of their last 11 against the Hammers in the competition (D5 L3).
  • This will be just the fourth Premier League meeting between West Ham and Man Utd with the Hammers starting above the Red Devils, following a 0-0 draw in August 1998, and 2-1 wins for Man Utd in August 1995 and September 2014.
  • Manchester United have won each of their last eight Premier League away games, their longest winning away run in their league history. The Red Devils are looking to win their first five games on the road in a single league campaign for the first time since 1985-86.
  • West Ham have scored the opening goal in five consecutive Premier League games, their longest such run since March 2006 (also a run of five). Only in April 2002 have the Hammers previously scored the opening goal in more consecutive matches in the competition (a run of seven).
  • Manchester United have won more points from losing positions than any other Premier League side this season (12), coming from behind to win all four of their away games so far in 2020-21.
  • Since Bruno Fernandes’ Premier League debut for Man Utd, the Red Devils have earned more Premier League points-per-game than any other side (2.09). Man Utd’s 48 points in their 23 league games since his arrival is 17 more than they earned in the same number of games before his debut (31).
  • Edinson Cavani is averaging a goal or assist every 32 minutes in the Premier League so far this season (3 goals, 1 assist, 128 minutes), having a hand in all three of Man Utd’s goals after coming off the bench in their 3-2 comeback win at Southampton last time out.
  • Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes has scored in each of his last five Premier League away games – the last player to score in six consecutive away league appearances for the Red Devils was Denis Law in March 1964.
  • 11 of Bruno Fernandes’ 15 Premier League goals for Man Utd have come away from home (73.3%) – of all players in the competition’s history to have scored at least 15 goals, only Johan Elmander (73.7% – 14/19) has scored a higher share on the road.

CHELSEA V LEEDS

8pm We have another excellent fixture to end the day as Chelsea host Leeds. I hope I don’t jinx this fixture by saying this but we can expect loads of goals and an excellent high quality game here. Chelsea have been excellent this season, and they impressed everyone with their 4-0 win over Sevilla midweek in the Champions League. They have been playing some good football for quite a while now, and perhaps we can count them as title contenders given Liverpool and Man City aren’t as clear this season compared to previous seasons. Leeds have really impressed me since coming up to the Premier League, and this will be a great test to see just what bracket we can put them in.

The impressive things about Leeds has been their chances created. They’ve also been excellent to watch for the neutral football fan as they play a very open game so we see plenty of chances at both ends of the pitch. That has cost them this season, but you can’t knock their tactics going forward. Even in their 0-0 draw with Arsenal recently they created an xG of 2.01. Chelsea are trading in the 1.5’s, but so is over 2.5 goals and I’d much rather be on that compared to the Chelsea win. With 0% commission today, the 1.53 is very much worth backing.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQcheLee

MATCH STATS

  • Chelsea won their last meeting with Leeds in all competitions, winning 5-1 at Elland Road in a League Cup tie in December 2012. This will be the first league meeting between the sides since a 1-0 win for the Blues at Stamford Bridge in May 2004.
  • Leeds have lost their last three Premier League away games against Chelsea (between 2002-2004), as many as they’d lost in their first nine in the competition at Stamford Bridge (W2 D4 L3).
  • Leeds have won just one of their last 21 away league games against London sides (D6 L14), beating QPR 3-1 in December 2017. In the top-flight, the Whites have lost their last four games in the capital by an aggregate score of 1-12.
  • Of all Premier League sides to have played in more than one season, Chelsea have the best win rate in home games against promoted sides (82% – 68 wins in 83 games). Indeed, the Blues have lost just three such matches in the competition – 0-2 vs Nottingham Forest in January 1995, 0-1 vs Charlton in April 2001 and 0-1 vs Bournemouth in December 2015.
  • Only Tottenham (9) are on a longer current unbeaten run in the Premier League than Chelsea (8), while no side has kept more clean sheets than the Blues in the division this term (5).
  • Leeds have won three of their five Premier League away games this season (L2), as many as they had in the whole of their previous campaign in 2003-04 (W3 D2 L14). The Whites have kept a clean sheet in each of these three victories.
  • Leeds’ Premier League matches this season have seen more shots taken than any other side in the competition (289), with the Whites ranking second for most shots (153) and fifth for most shots faced (136). Five of Leeds’ 10 Premier League games this season have seen 30+ shots.
  • This will be Chelsea manager Frank Lampard’s first meeting with Leeds since the 2018-19 Championship season with Derby – the Whites won the first three matches back then (2x regular season, 1x play-offs), before Derby won 4-2 at Elland Road to reach the play-off final.
  • Leeds full-back Luke Ayling has made more tackles than any other defender in the Premier League this season (30), while only two defenders (João Cancelo and Andrew Robertson) have created more chances from open play than Ayling this term (11).
  • Only Son Heung-min (7) and Jamie Vardy (7) have scored more away Premier League goals than Leeds’ Patrick Bamford this season, with six of his seven strikes in the competition so far coming on the road (86%).

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