SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s action which starts with WOLVES v SPURS at 12.30pm. All matches include a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WOLVES V TOTTENHAM
12.30pm We have another massive weekend in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We head into an International Break after this weekend, which I know a lot of football fans don’t enjoy! We’ve actually had a lot of International Breaks recently for the Nations League, and after this next one ends we have a clean run at domestic football until March 2024. We have five fixtures to enjoy on Saturday and another five on Sunday, and we kick off the weekend with Wolves hosting Spurs. I said it my preview of Monday Night Football that a lot of people were waiting for the Spurs bubble to pop and everything to come crashing down; was the 4-1 defeat to Chelsea the start of that? Two red cards and injuries, along with losing top spot in the table was a terrible evening for Spurs – it basically couldn’t have gone any worse. It will be fascinating to see how they bounce back now; winning the title was a pipedream at the start of the season – they need for forget about the title race, even though they are only one point behind City, and focus on getting a spot in the Top Four this season for Champions League football.
More dropped points here could see the panic button pressed the way Spurs have behaved over the last few seasons, although Ange Postecoglou seems very level headed. His reaction to Monday was very classy. For a side who have played so well, it’s a side that the market still doesn’t fully trust them that they are trading odds against here. The away win is 2.18 at the time of writing with Wolves 3.4 and the draw is 3.9. It’s easy to understand the Spurs price here, they are missing Van de Ven, Maddison, Romero and Udogie after all. The jury is definitely out on what type of performance we can expect with so many changes needed by Postecoglou – it’ll impact the whole system. Spurs had been playing some excellent football this season; their average xG created is 1.82 at the moment that’s only behind Manchester City and Liverpool. They are conceding sloppy goals, but they are also playing an open game. Wolves are very average going forward; their average xG created is 1.11 and they concede a lot of chances. I’m definitely worried about Spurs here because of the players missing, so I feel it’s best to focus on the goals market. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.66 and given both sides are conceding plenty of chances we should have an attacking game here. You wouldn’t be surprised to see a classic Spurs 2-2 or 3-3 draw like we had last season a few times for them!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolTtm
ARSENAL V BURNLEY
3pm We have three games kicking off at 3pm, not as busy as last weekend but a nice amount. It’s a lot easier to follow three games compared to five! We start them with the shortest price of the weekend as Arsenal host Burnley. Arsenal were involved in huge VAR drama again last weekend with their loss against Newcastle – there’s no doubt that VAR is under immense pressure after the Liverpool decision earlier in the season. I don’t agree with Arsenal putting out a club statement and Jamie Carragher spoke a lot of sense on Sky Sports last weekend. That result is in the past now anyway, and Arsenal have to get on with it – it was a big setback in the title race for them. City look like taking over again, and they start this weekend with a one point advantage over Spurs, and Arsenal are now three points behind City. Anything bar a comfortable home win would be a big shock here, and Arsenal are trading as short as 1.2 at the time of writing – the only side even close to that price this weekend is Brighton at home to Sheffield United on Sunday. Despite all the drama around Arsenal, they are playing excellent football on the pitch. Their average xG conceded is only 0.85 – one of only two sides in the Premier League with an average xG of under 1.0 – the other being Manchester City of course. I feel this will be a case of how many goals Arsenal score rather than will they win.
If you look at overall performance level, Arsenal’s is currently +0.81 on xG – that’s second best only behind Manchester City. While there still might be a big gap between Arsenal and City, it’s clear that they are the closest title challengers to City performance wise. Burnley are the opposite – they are in big trouble with only four points from 11 games. They would have went into this season thinking they were too good for a relegation battle, but they have one on their hands now. They are one of only three sides with an average xG created of under 1.0 in the Premier League this season – the other two were the sides who came up with them, Sheffield United and Luton Town. Not only do they have issues going forward, they are conceding chances at the back too. This is generally the type of fixture Arsenal do very well in – home advantage against a weak side who concede a lot of chances, and I feel Arsenal will run riot. Any Other Home Win (Arsenal to score four or more goals and win) is trading 3.4 in the Correct Score market and that looks nice value.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win at 3.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsBrn
CRYSTAL PALACE V EVERTON
3pm Next we have Crystal Palace hosting Everton, with Arsenal and Manchester United both in action at 3pm this fixture won’t be the main focus for a lot of football fans. This might not be the most high quality game of football this weekend, but we do have an interesting market. We have the most open market of the day here; Crystal Palace are 2.56, Everton 3.2 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. Although Everton were talked about as one of the favourites for relegation (from the current Premier League sides, outside of the ones who came up from the Championship) they have actually played good football this season. They got off to a bad start, but results have started to come now and even though they start the weekend sitting in 16th, it would be a big surprise in my opinion if they went down. Their average xG created is 1.52 – that’s not the figure of a side who gets relegated. They would have to be exceptionally unlucky to go down; compare that to Sheffield United for example who only create an average xG of 0.79. Now that’s relegation form!
Crystal Palace actually create less than Everton – their average xG created is only 1.25. That improves marginally at home to 1.31, but they are still conceding more chances than they are creating at home which has to be a major worry. I fully accept that fact that Everton are a lot more comfortable at home, and that they concede more chances away from home, however I feel the 2.56 is a little short on Crystal Palace here. I know we have an open market, but I would actually have it even more open! I would have Palace a little bigger and Everton a little shorter. If you just look at overall xG stats, Everton are +0.19 and Crystal Palace are -0.16. Everton play the better football, but they also need to start taking their chances at the same time. Home advantage clearly isn’t a huge factor for Palace, and while being away is a negative for Everton I still feel the 2.56 is worth a small lay on the home win here.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Crystal Palace to beat Everton at 2.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryEvr
MANCHESTER UNITED V LUTON TOWN
3pm We finish the 3pm games at Old Trafford with Manchester United hosting Luton Town. On paper, this is a fixture that should be a bread-and-butter win for United but it’s exceptionally difficult to trust them given the way they have played this season. They come into this game as the red-hot favourites, but you wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.33. If you fancy a shock, Luton Town are 10.0 and the draw is 6.0. It’s actually as sign of how far United have fallen that they are trading at a bigger price to beat Luton than Liverpool were away from home last weekend. Liverpool were trading as short as 1.26 last weekend, but we all know that doesn’t mean they just win – favourite backers got their fingers burnt there! I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here; there’s a big gulf in class between the sides and Luton haven’t looked up to Premier League standard this season. I know they got a result against Liverpool last weekend, but they conceded a very high xG figure and it was just one of those games for Liverpool. I wouldn’t be looking to include United in an Acca this weekend either.
I feel with this United side, it’s just a case of how can you trust them at the moment. They are making very hard work of winning relatively easy fixtures on paper, and they are getting hammered when they meet the top sides. You would have got a much bigger price in-running on most of their wins this season – you have to give them credit for finding a way to win and scoring late goals, but they’ve been dreadful at times. Their average xG conceded this season is 1.52 which is very poor, and ironically they are creating the same figure. Luton might not be able to take advantage of them at the back here because they actually have an xG created of under 1.0, but United do make a lot of mistakes at the back. Their habit of not tracking back from midfield has cost them time and time again this season. This is definitely a game to keep stakes small in, and Over 2.5 goals is my selection at 1.6. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Luton score at some stage, but I prefer Overs than Both Teams To Score at slightly odds on.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunLut
BOURNEMOUTH V NEWCASTLE
5.30pm We finish Saturday in the Premier League with Bournemouth hosting Newcastle. This is an important fixture for both sides – Newcastle need to follow up their win against Arsenal last weekend, plus bounce back from defeat to Dortmund midweek in the Champions League! While Bournemouth have slipped into the relegation zone – I would suggest Sheffield United and Luton Town will go down this season, and then one of Burnley and Bournemouth. There really is a bottom four this season, I can’t see anyone else getting involved. Obviously Bournemouth have to target their home games; home form is always vital in a relegation battle but whether or not they have the ability to deal with this Newcastle side in another matter. Bournemouth have very poor stats – their average xG created is only 1.12 and they are conceding an average of 1.81. That conceded average is definitely a major red flag – it’s the second worst figure in the Premier League, the only side worse at the back is Sheffield United. Newcastle have been solid at the back, and their average xG created of 1.55 isn’t as good as last season, but it’s decent.
The biggest question here is Newcastle’s away performances. They still create more than they concede away from home, but there’s a big drop off compared to their home form. That’s why we have plenty of punters willing to lay them at 1.74. Bournemouth trade 5.1 while the draw is 4.2. The only question here is do we have enough confidence in Newcastle away from home to win, and my answer is yes. I feel the 1.74 is worth backing, and I would have them under 1.7 here to be honest. Bournemouth have been bang average at home as well – their average xG created is only 1.13 and they are conceding plenty of chances too. There isn’t actually a positive about Bournemouth this season, they have been average all over the park and it’s easy to see why they sit in the bottom three. The 1.74 is at least five ticks too big on Newcastle for me, and it’s worth a confident bet to finish the day.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Newcastle to beat Bournemouth at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouNwc
