SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews a busy Saturday in the Premier League with the action underway at 3pm. All games include a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOURNEMOUTH V LUTON TOWN
3pm It’s a busy Saturday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and I think it has something for everyone! Very short odds on favourites and games that will have a big impact on the relegation battle! We have no early kick off this week, so we begin with four games starting at 3pm. The first of those is Bournemouth hosting Luton Town, and Bournemouth will be viewing this as a superb opportunity to claim three points and move further up the table. Bournemouth have won five of their last seven Premier League games, and their other two were against Manchester City and Aston Villa – they even picked up a draw at Aston Villa! After the 3-0 win at Old Trafford last weekend, of course all the headlines were about Erik ten Hag and Manchester United but you have to give Bournemouth massive credit. They are playing with a huge amount of confidence, and they come into this game as the odds on favourites. The home win is trading 1.54 at the time of writing with Luton Town 7.0 and the draw is 4.7.
As expected given the way they were playing, Everton have jumped over Luton now, dropping Luton into the relegation zone. All three sides currently in the bottom three – Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton – are all odds on to get relegated this season. They aren’t going to be better than Everton, so realistically their best chance seems to be catching Nottingham Forest. There’s actually a huge gap in performance level between Sheffield United and Luton compared to the rest. For example, the overall performance level from Luton is -0.98 and the next worst is -0.59. That’s a huge gap really! Luton have been poor going forward with an average xG created of 0.86 and poor at the back with an average conceded of 1.84. There aren’t many positives to say about Luton this season, and Bournemouth can continue their excellent run here with another win.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Bournemouth to beat Luton Town at 1.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouLut
CHELSEA V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm Next we have one of the shortest prices of the weekend as Chelsea host Sheffield United. Chelsea come into this game as the red-hot favourites and they are trading as short as 1.27 at the time of writing. That’s not the shortest price of the weekend – that goes to Manchester City at home to Crystal Palace and then we also have Liverpool 1.35 to beat Manchester United as well. Compared to backing Manchester City and Liverpool at short odds with home advantage, I wouldn’t exactly be rushing to add Chelsea to make it a treble given their results this season! That being said, Sheffield United have been very poor this season, they don’t look up to Premier League standard and even with a surprise win last weekend against Brentford they remain bottom of the table. Sheffield United have only been creating an average xG of 0.78 which is the worst attacking figure in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of 1.95 is the worst defensive figure too! Chelsea have had a lot of issues this season, they look like a mid-table side, but surely they can beat Sheffield United with home advantage?
It’s very hard to see past a Chelsea win here; to be honest anything else would be a major shock. I just don’t fancy backing Chelsea at 1.27 given their results this season. It’s also a factor that Sheffield United have a new manager, and finally managed to break their run without a win last weekend. They will still go down of course, but they are probably in that ‘new manager bounce’ period. Chelsea have conceded plenty of sloppy goals this season, and we know that Sheffield United have been very poor at the back this season too. I’m happy to focus on the goals market here, and Over 2.5 goals looks nice value at 1.58. We should have a very end-to-end game here, and I’d be surprised if we didn’t see goals. There’s plenty of mistakes in both sides at the back!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheShe
MANCHESTER CITY V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm We have the shortest price of the Premier League weekend next as Manchester City host Crystal Palace. Anything bar a comfortable City win would be a massive shock here, and they are trading as short as 1.19 at the time of writing. City have gone through a difficult time recently, but their performance level hasn’t really dropped. They were unlucky not to beat Spurs, and then of course the Chelsea 4-4 was very dramatic. The 1-1 with Liverpool was fair enough given the quality of both sides, and although they lost 1-0 to Aston Villa we know Villa have been superb under Emery. It looked like they could extend that run when 1-0 down against Luton last weekend, but they turned that around in a couple of minutes and then grinded out a 2-1 win. It will be interesting to see how they perform here, on paper they should blow away this Crystal Palace side. I can’t see past a City win to be honest, and we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value with City trading as short as 1.19. Unlike Chelsea, City are a good option to add to any Acca this weekend!
If you do fancy a shock here however, Crystal Palace are trading 19.5 and the draw is 8.6. There aren’t many signs that Palace will spring a surprise here though. Their average xG created is only 1.14 this season which is the sixth worst attacking figure in the Premier League this season – only Sheffield United, Luton, Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Burnley are worse going forward – not exactly a good list! Roy Hodgson has been trying to make them as solid at the back as possible, and their average xG conceded is 1.35 which isn’t too bad considering their level. With City not exactly blowing sides away recently, and they did make very hard work of beating Luton last weekend, I don’t see them running riot here. I’m going to have a small bet on Palace +2.5 goals at 1.62 in the Handicap market. I wouldn’t be surprised if City conceded a sloppy goal, but Palace can keep the score line respectable in defeat.
The Striker Says:
One point win Crystal Palace +2.5 goals to beat Bournemouth at 1.62 with Betdaq Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciCrl
NEWCASTLE V FULHAM
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Newcastle hosting Fulham. We have another odds on favourite here, but the biggest price of the home sides in the 3pm games! Newcastle are trading 1.88 at the time of writing with Fulham 4.3 and the draw is 4.1. Newcastle have to pick themselves up after crashing out of Europe on Wednesday night. It was all going very well for them as they lead 1-0 against AC Milan and Dortmund lead 1-0 against PSG; within a few minutes both games were 1-1 but then Newcastle went on to lose 2-1 and finish bottom of the Group. They started that game odds on to win – a few ticks away from the price they are here – so it was obviously very disappointing that they ended up finishing bottom of the table. The only positive is they can focus on their domestic football, but they already have a massive amount of work to do to reclaim their Top Four spot. They start the weekend seven points behind Manchester City sitting in fourth. They have Spurs and Manchester United just above them, so they might be able to get a Europa League spot.
It would make an interesting debate to say that maybe Newcastle’s success last season came too quickly. It was only the start of the project – they basically jumped from relegation candidates to Top Four contenders. I thought they’d spend a few years aiming for a Europa League spot maybe; hopefully the fanbase can keep their feet on the ground! Newcastle have had a lot of issues away from home, but in front of their own fans they have been very good in the Premier League and I feel the 1.88 is good value here. Fulham have been pretty average away from home – their average xG created is only 1.14 away from home and they are conceding an average xG of close to 2.0! It’s been a different story for them at home, but we have a side comfortable at home here against a side who have been playing poorly away. I’m happy with a limited stake bet on the home win at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Newcastle to beat Fulham at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewFlm
BURNLEY V EVERTON
5.30pm We finish the day with Burley hosting Everton. Technically, this could be billed as a “massive relegation battle” with sitting in 17th and Burnley in 19th. However, I really don’t see Everton being in the relegation battle; I don’t think many football fans do either! They have been fantastic this season, and a ten point deduction isn’t going to send them down either. Even when they got that ten point deduction, you knew by the way that they were playing that they would be able to handle it. Their average xG created is 1.53 while their average conceded is 1.33. For reference, Manchester United and Chelsea have the same average xG figure with Newcastle marginally below at 1.52. Plus Everton are conceding less chances on average than Manchester United, Chelsea and Newcastle! I know you could say those three have been disappointing in their own way this season, but it just highlights how good Everton have been playing. They were a relegation contender when Dyche took over, and you could easily call them a mid-table side now. They might not finish there with the ten points taken off them this season, but that’s where their performance level will put them really.
They come into this game as the favourites, but they aren’t odds on. This is the only game that we don’t have an odds on favourite today! Everton are 2.18 with Burnley 3.8 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. At the start of the season, Everton would have been talked about as a bigger relegation contender than Burnley after their impressive Championship season. It hasn’t worked out that way, and the Burnley performance level has been pretty low. Their average xG created of 1.11 is the joint-fourth worst figure in the Premier League. Their average xG conceded is 1.59 and that puts them in the bottom five at the back; combine them and you have major issues. Burnley having home advantage is obviously a positive for them, plus you have to also consider that Everton have been superb at home. However, there is a big gulf in performance levels between the sides and I would have Everton shorter here – I wouldn’t have them odds on or anything like that, but I still feel the 2.18 is a few ticks too big and it’s worth taking.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Everton to beat Burnley at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BurEvr
