SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games starting with WEST HAM v MAN U all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V MANCHESTER UNITED
12.30pm It’s the last Saturday before Christmas in the Premier League, and we have a fascinating day ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. The day is headlined by Liverpool hosting Arsenal in the evening kick off, but we have plenty of interesting markets at 3pm and we start the day with a cracker too as West Ham host Manchester United. There always seems to be a drama of some sort at Old Trafford these days, and the latest news on twitter this week was United were thinking of terminating Jadon Sancho’s contract if they don’t find a buyer in January. That move would see a huge change in the dynamic of player power over the last few years at Old Trafford; interesting times ahead! On the pitch, there are still plenty of question marks about this United side, and this is another fixture where it’s hard to trust them away from home. We just don’t know what kind of United performance we’re going to get at the moment – they beat Chelsea, lose 3-0 to Bournemouth and then get a 0-0 draw away to Liverpool! It’s very hard to predict what kind of United performance you get, and that’s very difficult from a betting point of view.
We have an exceptionally open market – both sides are trading the same price at the time of writing. Both sides are 2.7 with the draw trading 3.75. Both sides start this weekend sitting right beside each other in seventh and eighth, only one point between them. To be honest, there’s some major red flags in the stats of both sides. West Ham have an average xG conceded of 1.70 which is the third worst defensive figure in the Premier League at the moment. They are basically conceding that, and what is saving them is that they are massively over-performing up front. Their average xG created is 1.3, but their actual goals scored is average 1.71. United have been very poor at the back too, they are conceding more chances than they are creating – the issue for them is that they aren’t taking their chances. Their average xG created is 1.49, but their actual goals scored is as low as 1.06. Both sides clearly have issues, and it’s no surprise to see them trading at the same price – it is indeed very hard to actually pick a favourite here and be confident! I expect a very close game, and the draw is good value at 3.75 in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuMnu
FULHAM V BURNLEY
3pm We have four games kicking off at 3pm, and four very interesting markets too – three odds on favourites you can pick holes in and then a very open market. We start the afternoon with Fulham hosting Burnley – the home side come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.74 with Burnley 5.3 and the draw is trading 4.0 at the time of writing. A gap has definitely formed to the bottom three with Nottingham Forest now five points ahead of the relegation zone, and they sacked their manager! Burnley just haven’t been good enough this season; after running away with the Championship title they weren’t expected to be even in the relegation battle but now they are odds on to go down. It’s hard to see any of the current bottom three getting out of danger, and in fairness the only side who could take their place is Nottingham Forest. I said above that we have three odds on favourites that you can pick holes in, and looking at the stats there actually isn’t much between these sides. There is 13 points between the sides of course with Fulham grinding out a lot of points, but their stats are very similar. For example, Fulham have an overall performance figure of -0.45 while for Burnley it’s -0.49.
I wouldn’t be rushing to back Fulham here at odds on to be honest. It’s hard to make the case that they should be massively shorter than 1.74 and thus make that a value price. The positive for Fulham backers here however is their home form. They have been marginally creating more than they are conceding at home which is always good, and their stats are woeful away from home. They’ve also recorded back-to-back 5-0 wins over West ham and Nottingham Forest here which is impressive. I would expect Fulham to win, but I just don’t feel the 1.74 is value – and betting is all about getting value. Burnley are conceding a lot of chances away from home, and Fulham like to play an open game – I like a small bet on Over 2.5 goals at 1.91. We have two sides who do make mistakes at the back here, I feel we’ll see goals.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulBrn
LUTON TOWN V NEWCASTLE
3pm Next we have a very interesting market! Luton Town host Newcastle and I’m sure we’ll have some big opinions either side of the book here. We all know Newcastle have been having a huge amount of issues away from home this season, but they face a very limited side here – it’s an interesting market to break down! Newcastle are the odds on favourites at 1.7 with Luton Town 5.5 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. Luton just haven’t been up to Premier League standard; they are sitting in the bottom three five points away from Nottingham Forest but they do have a game in hand after the Premier League decided that their abandoned game against Bournemouth was going to be replayed in full. If they won that, things might get interesting in the relegation battle. Their stats don’t give them much hope however; their xG figures are very poor and they are comfortably the second worse side in the Premier League. For example, their overall performance figure is -0.98; Sheffield United have a worst figure than that but the next closest team is -0.58 so there’s quite a gap.
Luton have struggle going forward and at the back – their average xG created is only 0.86 and they are conceding an average of 1.84 – very poor figures. Newcastle are obviously better, but they have had major issues away from home. Since beating Sheffield United 8-0 away from home, they are five games without a win. They’ve lost to Spurs, Everton and Bournemouth and drawn 2-2 with Wolves and West Ham. They haven’t exactly had a difficult fixture list on paper, but Eddie Howe isn’t getting half the pressure that Erik ten hag faces at Manchester United – there’s only one point between Newcastle and Manchester United too! Luton are a very limited side, but it’s hard to support Newcastle away from home at the moment. They are conceding a lot of chances – their average xG conceded away is 1.61 and they are creating less. I just feel that the 1.7 doesn’t offer any value, and I’m happy to have a small bet on Both Teams To Score at 1.85. With all Newcastle’s issues at the back, I feel Luton can get on the score sheet at some stage.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutNew
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm We have the most open market of the 3pm games here as Nottingham Forest host Bournemouth. Fair to say Nottingham Forest hit the panic button this week when they sacked Steve Cooper. Some of the media interviews with the fans were very sad, and obviously they had a very strong connection with Steve Cooper. A lot of stories came out about things he did in and around the town without the media knowing or reporting. The reality is Nottingham Forest just weren’t playing good football this season and something had to give. It will be interesting to see what impact Nuno Espirito Santo has a new manager – he was appointed very quickly, and obviously the feelers were put out before Steve Cooper was sacked. We have a gap to the bottom three, but then come Nottingham Forest and their figures are so poor that you wouldn’t be surprised if they got heavily involved in the relegation battle – more so than now anyway! This is a big game for them, it will be interesting to see do we get a new manager bounce.
Looking at the stats, Forest are the third worst side in the Premier League behind Sheffield United and Luton Town. They are the only three sides with an average xG of under 1.0, and they are conceding an average xG of 1.51. Bournemouth are actually conceding more chances because their figure is 1.64, but they are creating a lot more in front of goal to counter that. The away side are the favourites at 2.66 with Nottingham Forest 2.88 and the draw is 3.55. It’s hard to be confident on either side here to be honest; we have two average sides. Bournemouth have conceded a lot of chances away from home, but they have been consistent up front – I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here. I feel we’ll see plenty of mistakes at the back from both sides, and Both Teams To Score looks a very nice position at 1.78. I’d expect an open game, the home fans will want to get behind the new manager – I’d be surprised if we didn’t see goals here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotBun
TOTTENHAM V EVERTON
3pm We finish the 3pm games with a very interesting clash between Spurs and Everton. Both sides have had rollercoaster seasons so far; Spurs started the season on fire under Ange Postecoglou but Spurs are never too far away from drama – injuries and suspensions saw them saw them lose to Chelsea, Wolves, Aston Villa and West Ham – in between those games, in classic Spurs fashion to be honest, they drew 3-3 with Manchester City! They have steadied the ship with wins against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest, but Everton will be a good test for them here. They have been playing some superb football under Sean Dyche this season. Everton’s average xG created is 1.53 which is very high for them – that’s a higher figure than Manchester United for example! The big negative for Everton here however is that their away form hasn’t matched their home form – they have been conceding more chances than they are creating away from home. They have managed to win their last five away games against Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace and West Ham – a reasonably easy fixture list in fairness. Everton are overall having a great season though; they got their ten point deduction in a good season because they won’t go down even with that!
Spurs have been fantastic going forward under Postecoglou, but they are still conceding chances. You always feel something “Spursy” as Roy Keane says is around the corner. They are trading odds on here, but there are plenty of willing layers. The home win is 1.86 with Everton 4.2 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. I’m going to keep stakes small here, but the 1.86 on Spurs feels too short in my opinion. I fully accept the fact that Everton haven’t been as good away from home compared to at home performance level wise, but they have been getting results away from home. Spurs always feel like they will give chances away at some point, and although Over 2.5 goals is an option at 1.6 along with Both Teams To Score at one tick bigger at 1.61, I feel the best value option is the Spurs lay at 1.86. I just feel we’re going to see a closer game than those odds suggest, and I’m happy with a small value lay on Spurs.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Everton at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotEvr
LIVERPOOL V ARSENAL
5.30pm What a blockbuster fixture to finish Saturday before Christmas! Liverpool host Arsenal in a top of the table clash – if we have a winner here they will be massively in the title race with Manchester City already five points behind Arsenal and four behind Liverpool. Towards the start of the season, it looked like City might run away with the title but they have dropped a lot of points recently – these two will be thinking they have a superb chances. At the moment, both sides haven’t been shorter to win the title! We have an open market for this game with Liverpool the favourites with home advantage. Jurgen Klopp’s men are trading 2.48 with Arsenal 3.0 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. Although Liverpool ran out easy winners in the Carabao Cup Quarter-Final on Wednesday night, Klopp again criticised the home atmosphere. That’s two home games in a row where the Anfield atmosphere was very poor; Sky Sports said it was the “worst it ever was” in the Manchester United game. It will be interesting to see does that get a reaction from the fans, surely it will get a reaction from the Kop, this is a huge game – the biggest of the season.
Both sides have been excellent this season, and it’s hard to pick holes in either. Liverpool are still conceding plenty of chances of course, but they have been superb going forward. Liverpool’s average xG created of 2.04 is the best attacking figure in the Premier League this season – while Arsenal’s average xG conceded of just 0.89 is the best defensive figure this season! We have the best attack against the best defence – it will be interesting to see who wins! Arsenal have been good going forward too; their average xG created is a very decent 1.8 – that’s the fourth best figure in the league. The market has Over 2.5 goals trading odds on at 1.72 but I’m not sure I agree with that. I know Liverpool like to play a very open game but that’s not the way Arsenal have gone in big games. I can see Arteta setting Arsenal up to be very cagey, especially in the first half, and I like Under 2.5 goals at 2.32. Everyone was expecting goals when Liverpool met the two Manchester sides as well, and we saw 0-0 against United and 1-1 against City. I like the Unders here – I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see a 0-0 to be honest.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.32 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivArl
