THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The highlight very much comes at 5.30pm with MANCHESTER UNITED v MANCHESTER CITY !!
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
WOLVES V ASTON VILLA
12.30pm Another excellent day in the Premier League! All football bets are also 0% commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today and with the Manchester Derby on later it’s bound to be an excellent day of action! We start with Wolves hosting Aston Villa in a very interesting game from a betting point of view. It’s fair to say a lot of us thought Villa’s bubble had popped when losing to Leeds and Southampton after an excellent start to the season but in fairness to them they have responded very well. They beat Arsenal 3-0 and although they have lost two close games – you can see by looking at their xG figures they have been playing some excellent football.
Villa have been exceptionally unlucky to lose those two games, finishing ahead on xG 2.17 to 1.42 against Brighton and 2.72 to 0.59 against West Ham. Wolves have been a little below their best this season. They have been grinding out results as they usually do but they have thrown in some very poor performances. I think Villa will get a result here and Wolves are much too short at the current 2.38. I fully expect Villa to make the game closer than those odds suggest with the amount of chances they are creating.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Wolves to beat Aston Villa at 2.38 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwolavl
MATCH STATS
- Wolves won both Premier League meetings with Aston Villa last season – they last won three league games in a row against the Villans between 1957 and 1960 (a run of seven).
- After an 11-game unbeaten away run against Wolves in all competitions between 1978 and 2012 (W7 D4), Aston Villa have lost each of their last three visits to Molineux.
- Wolves have conceded fewer home goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (5). Indeed, they’ve kept eight clean sheets in their last 12 Premier League games at Molineux.
- Aston Villa have won three of their last four Premier League away games, though they did lose their last such match at West Ham (1-2). The Villans had won just three of their previous 40 on the road in the competition (D8 L29).
- Following an unbeaten run of eight Premier League games, Aston Villa have now lost four of their last five in the competition (W1), conceding at least twice in each defeat.
- Wolves have conceded 3+ goals in three of their 11 Premier League games so far this season, already more than they had in the whole of the 2019-20 campaign (2).
- Aston Villa have scored in 12 of their last 13 Premier League games, netting 25 goals in total. They had failed to score in six of their last eight prior to this run, with their previous 25 league goals coming over a period of 27 games.
- Wolves manager Nuno Espírito Santo has lost just two of his 16 home Premier League meetings with English managers (W9 D5), remaining unbeaten in his last nine such games since a 2-5 loss against Frank Lampard’s Chelsea last season.
- Only Bruno Fernandes (35) and Kevin De Bruyne (28) have created more chances for their teammates this season than Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish (26). Meanwhile, among midfielders only Fernandes (11) has been involved in more goals than Grealish so far this term (10 – 5 goals, 5 assists).
- Aston Villa’s Trézéguet has had more shots without scoring than any other player in the Premier League this season (22), while second on this list is Wolves’ Rúben Neves (17) – both players scored in this exact fixture last season.
NEWCASTLE V WEST BROM
3pm An interesting game towards the bottom of the Premier League. West Brom have been very poor this season but they will see this as a chance to pick up points against an average Newcastle side. Newcastle haven’t been impressive this season, but they have done enough to pick up enough points to not be involved in the fight at the bottom of the table. They haven’t played since the 27th of November because of issues with Covid19 but they beat Crystal Palace 2-0 in a solid display. West Brom got thrashed 5-1 by Crystal Palace last weekend, and they are already in serious danger of going down.
West Brom did manage to win recently with a 1-0 victory over Sheffield United but they were extremely lucky to do so. Sheffield United created an xG of 3.25 – they are just having one of those season when nothing goes right for them. I feel Newcastle will beat this West Brom side and they are worth backing at 2.24. I’m not a big fan of Newcastle so it won’t be a bet to go mad about for me, but I feel they should be closer to 2.0.
The Striker Says:
One point win Newcastle to beat West Brom at 2.24 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQnewwba
MATCH STATS
- Newcastle lost their last meeting with West Brom in the Premier League, going down 0-1 at home in April 2018. They’ve not lost consecutive league games against the Baggies since a run of three between 1977 and 1984.
- West Brom are looking to win consecutive away league games against Newcastle for the first time since September 1966, following their 1-0 win at St James’ Park in April 2018.
- Newcastle are looking to pick up back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since June, which was also the last time the Magpies kept consecutive clean sheets in the competition (in a run of three).
- West Bromwich Albion have conceded the most goals (23), have the highest expected goals against total (22.2), faced the most shots (167) and shots on target (68) in the Premier League this season.
- No team has failed to score in more different Premier League games than West Bromwich Albion this season (6). After netting five goals in their first three league games this season, the Baggies have netted just three in their last eight.
- Though Newcastle have had the fewest shots (86) and second fewest shots on target (28) in the Premier League this season, no side has scored with a higher percentage of their efforts on target than the Magpies this term (42.9% – 12/28).
- Newcastle manager Steve Bruce has lost more Premier League games against promoted sides than any other manager in the competition’s history (28). Meanwhile, of the 31 managers to have taken charge of 30+ such games in the competition, only Tony Pulis and Jim Smith (33.3%) have a lower win rate vs promoted sides than Bruce (35.9% – won 23/64).
- Callum Wilson has netted the winning goal in all four of Newcastle’s Premier League victories so far this season – only Son Heung-min (5) has scored more winning goals in the competition this term.
- Newcastle’s Callum Wilson has been involved in 75% of Newcastle’s 12 Premier League goals this season (7 goals, 2 assists). Indeed, his nine goal involvements in nine Premier League games this season is as many as he managed in 35 league appearances last season (8 goals, 1 assist).
- Conor Gallagher has scored in his last two Premier League games – the last English player to score in three consecutive Premier League appearances for West Brom was Geoff Horsfield in August 2005.
MANCHESTER UNITED V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm The Manchester Derby, what a fixture! We’ve had a lot of massively important fixtures between these two throughout the years, and perhaps this is a massive game for different reasons. Neither side have been at their best this season. You can probably say that about United for the last number of years, but after crashing out of the Champions League on Tuesday the pressure is firmly on Solskjaer. Guardiola has a different pressure – his side haven’t been creating a huge amount of chances this season and although they have a game in hand, they are already six points behind table toppers Spurs. That’s an unusual position for City, and it’ll be interesting to see how they react as the season goes on.
For today, it’s hard not to see City taking advantage of United at the back. United have consistently got themselves into bad positions with poor defending and although they have been coming back against the likes of Everton, Southampton and West Ham we seen midweek that you don’t come back against the top teams. City of course have their problems and they haven’t been at their best this season, but they can surely outscore this United side who leave too many gaps at the back. We should have an excellent game, but City will win for me.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester City to beat Manchester United at 1.79 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQmnumci
MATCH STATS
- Manchester United won both Premier League meetings with Manchester City last season – they last won three in a row in the competition against their local rivals between November 2008-April 2010 (four wins).
- Manchester City have won seven Premier League away games at Old Trafford, more than any other visiting side, with six of their seven such victories away to Manchester United coming in the previous nine seasons.
- Just 21% of Manchester United’s Premier League points this season have been won in home games (4/19), the lowest share in the division so far this term.
- Manchester United have won a league-high 15 points from losing positions this season (all away from home), with their victory against West Ham last time out putting them top of this particular stat all-time for the Premier League (385 points).
- Manchester City have lost five Premier League away games in 2020, last losing more in a single calendar year in the competition back in 2015 (7).
- Manchester City have won their last two Premier League games by an aggregate score of 7-0 – that’s as many goals as they’d netted in their previous seven league games combined, while they’re looking to keep three consecutive league clean sheets for the first time since a run of four in April/May 2019.
- Of all managers to have faced Man City boss Pep Guardiola at least four times in all competitions, Man Utd’s Ole Gunnar Solskjær has the highest win rate against the Spaniard, with the Norwegian winning three of their five meetings (60%).
- Man Utd’s Anthony Martial has scored in three of his last four Premier League appearances against Man City, including netting home and away against the Citizens last term. The last Man Utd player to score in three consecutive Manchester derby appearances in the league was Eric Cantona, who did so in five straight games between March 1993-April 1996.
- Since his Premier League debut in February, Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes has been involved in more goals in the competition than any other player, racking up 15 goals and 11 assists in just 24 games.
- Man City’s Raheem Sterling has never scored in 16 Premier League appearances against Manchester United, at least 10 games more than he’s faced any other side in the competition without a goal. Sterling has had 29 attempts in these matches (13 on target), while the last English player to score in a Manchester derby for City in the league was James Milner in April 2013.
EVERTON V CHELSEA
8pm We finish the day with Everton hosting Chelsea and I really like the Chelsea bet at 1.84 here. It’s going to be a very rare max bet for me. Chelsea have been excellent this season and they arrive here in top form. You only have to look at their xG figures to see that they are playing some top quality football. Apart from the very cagey 0-0 draw with Spurs recently they have been creating two or more goals per game. They finished with an xG of 4.66 against Leeds last weekend and they also meet this Everton side at a perfect time to beat them.
Everton started the season very strongly, but in hindsight now apart from the Spurs win on the opening weekend they had a relatively easy fixture list and their bubble has been popped since. They have been very poor lately, only winning once in their last six and they were lucky to beat Fulham who missed a penalty for a draw. Leeds played them off the park recently with an xG of 3.38 and so did Newcastle with an xG of 2.78. I believe this is the perfect time to back Chelsea and at 1.84 they are a max bet for me.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Chelsea to beat Everton at 1.84 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQevechl
MATCH STATS
- Everton have won their last two Premier League home games against Chelsea, last winning three in a row against the Blues between February 2010-February 2012.
- Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in six of their last eight Premier League meetings with Everton, losing both games in which they conceded (W4 D2).
- Everton boss Carlo Ancelotti took charge of 76 Premier League games with Chelsea from 2009 to 2011, averaging 2.07 points per game in his spell with the Blues. Current Chelsea boss Frank Lampard played in 60 of these 76 matches, scoring 32 goals; only under José Mourinho did Lampard score more in the Premier League (49 in 140 appearances).
- Chelsea have won just two of their last 15 away Premier League games against fellow ever-present sides in the competition (D5 L8), with those victories coming at Tottenham and Arsenal in December last year.
- Everton have lost their last two Premier League home games (vs Man Utd and Leeds) – they’ve not lost three in a row at home since March 2016, while manager Carlo Ancelotti hasn’t lost three consecutive home league games since November 2006 with Milan.
- Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three Premier League away games, as many as they had in their previous 35 in the competition. They last went four in a row without conceding on the road back in February 2016.
- Managers to have previously taken charge of Chelsea in the Premier League have won just five of their 34 meetings against them in the competition (D8 L21), with Chelsea unbeaten in their last eight such games since Rafael Benítez’s Newcastle won 3-0 in May 2018 (W6 D2 since).
- In his first five Premier League games this season, Everton’s James Rodríguez was involved in six goals (3 goals, 3 assists), and created on average 3.2 chances per 90 minutes. He’s not registered a single goal involvement in his subsequent five games, averaging 2.1 chances created per 90 minutes in those games.
- Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the Premier League’s top scorer so far this season with 11 goals in 11 games – just two fewer than he netted in 36 appearances in the competition last term.
- Olivier Giroud has scored in each of his last six Premier League starts for Chelsea – only Mark Stein (seven between December 1993 and February 1994) has scored in more consecutive starts for the Blues in the competition.
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