SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews a bumper seven matches in the Premier League on Saturday starting with BRENTFORD v LIVERPOOL all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BRENTFORD V LIVERPOOL
12.30pm We have a massive Saturday of Premier League action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! Seven fixtures headlined by Manchester City hosting Chelsea later in the day. We start the day with Brentford hosting Liverpool on Jurgen Klopp’s favourite kick off time! No doubt this will be a topic of discussion heading into the game, but you have to say Liverpool have had a lot of early Saturday fixtures recently. I suppose the reality is that the TV companies want to show them, and there’s only so many TV slots over the weekend. So far Liverpool have managed to hold off the challenge of Manchester City to still sit top of the table, but that might change soon – after the loss to Arsenal, City are now only two points behind and they have a game in hand. Liverpool will be expected to win here, and they come into the game as the odds on favourites. Jurgen Klopp’s men are trading 1.62 with Brentford 3.8 and the draw is 4.6 at the time of writing. Brentford have struggled to get results this season – they are only six points away from the relegation zone, that win against Wolves last weekend was desperately needed! They are too good to go down obviously, but they have definitely been too close for comfort recently.
I have to say I was surprised to see Liverpool trading as high as 1.62 when I clicked into the market. I thought they would be sub 1.5 if I’m honest. They have been absolutely superb this season; their average xG created is 2.1 which is the joint-best attacking figure this season along with Manchester City. Obviously they do conceded more chances than City, and that’s where the difference is. However, Liverpool’s average xG conceded is 1.21 which isn’t too bad, and you’d call it impressive compared to Brentford at 1.59. Brentford have been playing a very open game this season, and they have been pretty average at the back too. I just can’t see them coping with Liverpool going forward here, and I feel that Brentford are there for the taking. Brentford are still conceding more chances than they create at home, and at 1.62 I feel we’re getting enough value for a Max Bet on Liverpool to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Liverpool to beat Brentford at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrtLiv
BURNLEY V ARSENAL
3pm We have a very busy Saturday afternoon with five fixtures kicking off at 3pm. We start the action with the shortest price of the weekend too as Burnley host Arsenal. Everyone will be expecting an Arsenal victory here – anything bar that would be a surprise! Arsenal come into the game as the red-hot favourites trading 1.34 – the only side close to that price this weekend is Manchester City at home later to Chelsea – and that’s a big reflection on how far Chelsea have fallen! After looking so good in the Championship last season, Burnley just haven’t been up to Premier League standard and they are long odds on to get relegated now. They started the summer without being one of the favourites, but they have looked likely to go down since the season kicking off to be honest. Sheffield United did them a favour last weekend beating Luton Town but Burnley are still in a desperate situation – they are six points behind Everton and seven behind Luton Town. Arsenal are at the other end of the table, and a recent win over Liverpool got them back in the title mix. They start the weekend two points behind Liverpool and level on points with Manchester City, although Pep Guardiola’s men have a game in hand on both their title challengers.
There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides here, and I’d happily include Arsenal in any weekend Acca at 1.34. It’s a little short to recommend as an outright bet – no prizes for those odds – so we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. Burnley have one of the worst attacking figures in the Premier League – they are one of only three sides with an average xG created of under 1.0. Arsenal have the joint-best defensive figure too; they are conceding an average xG of just 0.92 which is level with Manchester City. Arsenal have been great going forward, but most pundits give them a better chance in the title race this season because they have been so good at the back. I feel they can keep a clean sheet on the way to winning here, and Both Teams Not To Score looks a nice position at 1.87. Burnley have been average at home as well as away.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrnArs
FULHAM V ASTON VILLA
3pm Fulham host Aston Villa next, and you get the feeling that the wheels are coming off for Aston Villa. Unai Emery men need a win and they’ve definitely suffered a massive dent in their Top Four hopes in recent weeks. Just two wins in their last seven Premier League games isn’t good enough, and now they find themselves one point behind Spurs rather than being ahead. To be fair, they are still in an excellent position – no doubt about it that they would have taken this spot at the start of the season – but you just feel they have lost a bit of momentum in recent weeks. They need a comfortable win here without any drama. Those two wins have come against Burnley and Sheffield United too; the bottom two in the table. It’s hard to believe that the home draw against Sheffield United kicked off this poor run; that was the shortest price I ever saw for Aston Villa in the Premier League – they started that game trading in the low 1.2’s! And don’t forget they lost from being 2-0 up at Old Trafford recently afterwards. United put another dent in their Champions League football hopes when winning 2-1 at Villa last weekend, and it will be interesting to see what type of performance we get from Villa here.
We can’t be overly harsh on Villa. Let’s not forget that they were closer to the relegation battle than the European spots when Emery took over! They come into this game as the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. Aston Villa are 2.32 with Fulham 3.1 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. Fulham have almost had two teams this season – the one who play at home and the one who play away! They have been exceptionally poor away from home; they sit in 19th on the away form table, and they have conceded an average xG of 1.81 away. At home though, they are eighth and create more chances than they concede. You can understand why Aston Villa aren’t odds on here. Overall though, Villa have obviously been very good this season. I think the draw is a good value bet here at 3.9 – Fulham have been solid enough at home to get a result here, and while Villa are going through a rough patch I can see the sides cancelling each other out – the 3.9 looks too big.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FlmAvl
NEWCASTLE V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm Newcastle meet Bournemouth next, and this is an interesting market. I’m sure Newcastle will be a popular bet at the odds. The home win is trading 1.89 with Bournemouth 4.1 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. Bournemouth have been enjoying a good season – they put together a run of seven unbeaten Premier League games including six wins from those seven games. They shot up the table and away from the relegation zone, as well as that they included a 2-0 win over Newcastle that kicked off that run. Since then though they have bumped into Spurs and Liverpool, and all of a sudden they’ve gone five games without a win including a 3-1 loss at Fulham last weekend. They have been playing a very open game, and watching their games has been very entertaining however they are conceding close to two goals per game on average. That’s well over their average xG conceded of 1.54 which is still pretty high to be honest, but it highlights that they have been sloppy at the back. I was surprised to see Newcastle trading as high as 1.89 when I clicked into the market.
Newcastle have had their issues this season and they have been well documented. Most of those issues have come away from home however; they’ve almost been like two difference sides. Obviously with that long losing run away from home, morale took a hit and their home performances suffered too. However recent wins against Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest away will surely give them a boost, more mentality so than anything else. At home they have been creating an average xG of 1.79 which is impressive and I would have them shorter than 1.89 here. This game also screams goals, and Newcastle have had a lot of goals in their recent games too. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.51 so the market is expecting goals, however I still feel that’s a good value price. I wouldn’t put anyone off the Overs bet, however at the odds I marginally prefer the Newcastle win bet. I’d have them the other side of 1.8 here so I feel we’re getting plenty of value at 1.89.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Newcastle to beat Bournemouth at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NwcBou
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V WEST HAM
3pm This might not be the most glamorous fixture today, indeed it’s highly likely that Nottingham Forest v West Ham is a fixture most casual fans will skip over. It’s the classic fixture that only gets two minutes on Match Of The Day unless something dramatic happens with VAR or something. It is very interesting though; it’s an interesting market as well. Nottingham Forest are the favourites which might surprise a few football fans just looking at the table, however any fans of xG will understand why West Ham aren’t favourites here. There’s some major red flags in the West Ham performance figures. Nottingham Forest are trading 2.46 with West Ham 3.05 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. West Ham have been one of the most over-performing sides in the Premier League this season – their average xG created is only 1.12 which is the fourth worst attacking figure but they have been scoring well over that. They’ve also had major issues at the back, but sides are starting to take their chances against them now. Their average xG conceded is a whipping 1.78.
That’s the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League – even worse than the likes of Luton Town and Burnley! Manchester United and Arsenal have probably highlighted their issues at the back in recent weeks, but to be honest they’ve been gifting a lot of chances all season and sides haven’t been taking advantage. Plus, clearly they are over-performing in front of goal. They face a very poor Nottingham Forest side here though; Forest are one of only three sides to have an average xG created under 1.0 this season. They’ve also been quite poor at the back as well, so there really isn’t much between the sides. West Ham have been a side I’ve wanted to be against a lot given their performance levels but they meet a very poor side here too. I feel the 2.46 is a little short on Forest to be honest, and I wouldn’t be keen backing that despite the issues for West Ham. Over 2.5 goals looks a nice position at 1.92 considering how poor both sides have been at the back.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NttWhu
TOTTENHAM V WOLVES
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Spurs hosting Wolves. It could be a big afternoon in the Top Four battle with Aston Villa also in action away to Fulham – Spurs fans will be fully aware that Aston Villa have lost a lot of momentum in recent weeks, and now if Spurs can put together a decent run they can claim that fourth spot quite early. I know Manchester United have been winning some games recently, but they aren’t good enough to catch Spurs in my opinion. Spurs recorded a massive win last weekend too; coming from 1-0 down here against Brighton to win 2-1 with the winning goal coming in the 96th minute. We saw incredible scenes here; a win like that is always good for morale and the stadium experience is immense. They will be expected to follow that up with another win here, and they come into the game decent odds on favourites. The home win is trading 1.58 with Wolves 5.7 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing. That win over Brighton meant that Spurs have won their last five home Premier League games, but Wolves did recently beat Chelsea 4-2 away from home.
That’s probably a reflection of how bad Chelsea have been this season rather than Wolves being superb. However, Wolves bossed that game – I think it surprised people how easily Chelsea rolled over.
Wolves only have an average xG created of 1.17 this season, so scoring four goals in a game is very rare! Spurs have been playing a very open game this season, and their games have been very entertaining so we could easily see drama here. Spurs have an average xG created of 1.79 which is the fourth best attacking figure in the Premier League this season; they do deserve that fourth spot in my opinion. Obviously they have been conceding a lot more chances compared to the other top sides, but we are talking about Spurs here. Disaster at the back is never too far away! Over 2.5 goals is an option at 1.46 however it’s clear that the market is expecting goals. It’s probably a better bet to include in an Acca rather than an outright bet. I prefer the Spurs win at 1.58 from a value point of view; both sides have their flaws at the back but Spurs are much better going forward, and that will be the difference.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Tottenham to beat Wolves at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotWlv
MANCHESTER CITY V CHELSEA
5.30pm The Premier League have saved the best until last on Saturday as Manchester City host Chelsea. This used to be a massive Top Four clash, even a big clash in the title race maybe, but it’s a very different story now. Chelsea have become a mid-table side, not just in terms of where they sit in the table but their actual performance level too. As I said above, it’s a sign of the times that Manchester City come into the game such short favourites. Pep Guardiola’s men are trading as short as 1.37 at the time of writing with Chelsea 9.2 and the draw is 6.0. That 1.37 isn’t far off the shortest price of the weekend! The way Chelsea have been playing this season it’s hard to see anything bar a comfortable City win here, but there is definitely a lot of talent within the Chelsea squad – they can turn up here; a bit like Manchester United turned up in big games and threw away the “easier” fixtures before Erik ten Hag arrived. We saw one of the most entertaining games of the season when the sides met in November, it finished 4-4 and even if we get half the drama here we’ll have a cracker.
Prior to that 4-4 thriller, City had won the last six meetings. One of those was a 4-0 win, but usually it’s a grind for City and they only win by one goal. With the home win trading so short, that does make the Handicap markets very interesting. However, Chelsea have been so poor this season it’s hard to support them in any form; even on the handicap! Their xG figures are basically mid-table level, a few spots ahead of where they actually sit but they have been leaking far too many goals. They face the best attacking side here too – City’s average xG created is 2.1 along with Liverpool. You also have to think if Chelsea are shipping four goals at home to Wolves, what are City going to do. The market is expecting goals here with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.49, however I feel that price still offers value. We know City are going to play an open game here, they go toe-to-toe with everyone but Chelsea have been involved in high scoring games too. Six of their last seven in the Premier League have had Over 2.5 goals. Here’s another stat for you; Chelsea haven’t drawn a Premier League game since that City 4-4 back in November! I think we’ll have a lot of action here, and Overs looks a nice bet to finish the day.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.49 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MncChe
