SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews seven games – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BRENTFORD V CHELSEA
3pm We have a bumper Saturday from the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with a whopping seven fixtures to go through! It’s unfortunate that there isn’t an early kick off this weekend due to the FA Cup Fifth Round midweek, and we have six fixtures kicking off at 3pm. We start the day with Brentford hosting Chelsea. It was a massive week for Chelsea, they lost the Carabao Cup Final last Sunday to Liverpool and then came through a dramatic FA Cup Fifth Round against Leeds on Wednesday night. The way they played the extra-time in the Carabao Cup Final was very poor; they were very negative and I’m sure they massively regret those tactics. They basically played for penalties – a late winner against Leeds was badly needed for morale I think. Brentford are having a very average season, with Everton getting their ten point deduction reduced they jumped over them during the week. That leaves Brentford starting the weekend sitting in 16th just five points off the relegation zone. Sheffield United and Burnley look nailed on to go back to the Championship, but Luton do have a game in hand so that gap could get very uncomfortable for Brentford.
As you would expect, Chelsea come into the game as the favourites but they aren’t trading odds on. The Chelsea win is 2.26 with Brentford 3.2 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Obviously it’s been very hard to trust Chelsea this season, they have let themselves down so many times and dropped plenty of points in games that they should win. On paper, this is another game that they should win – Brentford have been poor and have conceded a lot of chances and goals this season. From that point of view the 2.26 looks big on Chelsea here, but if you’re opting to back Chelsea I would recommend low stakes! The bet I like is Over 2.5 goals at 1.59, and Both Teams To Score is also a good option at two ticks lower trading 1.57. Brentford have played a very open game this season, and obviously Chelsea have conceded plenty of goals too. I can see plenty of mistakes in this one, and the Overs looks a very nice position to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreChl
EVERTON V WEST HAM
3pm Everton host West Ham next, and it’s been a good week for Everton despite not kicking a ball. Everton were under immense pressure this season after getting a ten point deduction, but after an appeal they have got that reduced to six points. That’s moved them five points away from the relegation zone which must be a relief considering they actually sat in the bottom three for a while. They always had good stats, and were playing good football so it was always likely that they would stay up but obviously sitting in the relegation zone is never a good place to be and pressure does funny things to football teams – as we saw last year with Arsenal on the title run-in! In fairness to Everton, a ten point deduction was a very harsh judgement at the time given the circumstances. And let’s not even talk about all the charges that Manchester City are facing without anything seemingly happening there. It would cap a good week for Everton if they can win here, and you have to say that they have an excellent chance with West Ham conceding a lot of chances this season.
Everton have been playing better football than their results suggest at home. They come into the game as the 2.14 favourites with West Ham 3.75 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. West Ham finally broke their run without a win on Monday Night Football against Brentford. It was a very entertaining game and a 4-2 win was badly needed after six games without a win. I highlighted this on Monday, but West Ham have been one of the most over-performing sides in the Premier League this season. Their average xG created is only 1.13 but their actual goals scored is 1.54. That’s quite a difference, and their goals scored has them higher in the table than they should be considering they have the second worst defensive record in the Premier League. Only Sheffield United have conceded more chances on xG this season. The 2.14 on Everton is a tempting bet, but given how open West Ham have been playing Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page at 1.93 as does Both Teams To Score at 1.78. Both bets look cracking value – Everton have created a lot at home and West Ham have been scoring from all angles so I like Both Teams To Score at 1.78.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EvrWes
FULHAM V BRIGHTON
3pm We have the most open market of the day here as Fulham host Brighton. Fulham took the headlines last weekend with a 2-1 win over Manchester United at Old Trafford. It was the latest knife to United given their recent “renewed” hopes of a Top Four challenge. Perhaps that was just a case of United being United, but Fulham have been very poor in general away from home this season. As I have noted already this season, it’s been like two different sides watching Fulham at home and away! Prior to the win at Old Trafford, Fulham only had seven points away from home all season. At home, they have a reasonably impressive average xG created of 1.54 and they are conceding less chances than that at 1.29. While there is a gap between the sides in the table, and a little gulf in class to be honest, it’s easy to understand the open market when you look at Fulham’s home form. Brighton still come into the game as the favourites at 2.62 with Fulham 2.8 and the draw is trading 3.75 at the time of writing.
Brighton have been one of the more entertaining sides to watch this season; their games have been jam packed with chances and they’ve been involved in a few thrillers too. Their average xG created is a very high 1.72 – that’s the fifth best attacking figure in the Premier League this season. Why they start the weekend sitting down in seventh well off the pace in the European spots is because they have been conceding so many goals. Sloppy goals too; their actual goals conceded average of 1.58 is 0.30 over their average xG conceded. As always with Brighton, we can expect action at both ends of the pitch! They’ve only managed to keep three clean sheets in the Premier League all season. With Fulham creating a lot at home, I’m expecting goals here again. Over 2.5 goals is 1.68 and Both Teams To Score is a little shorter at 1.59. Once again I feel both a good bets, and I’m going to opt for the Both Teams To Score option again.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulBrg
NEWCASTLE V WOLVES
3pm Newcastle host Wolves next, and this is an interesting market. Newcastle are the odds on favourites, but there are plenty of willing layers around. The home win is trading 1.96 at the time of writing with Wolves 4.0 and the draw is the same price at 4.0. Newcastle were involved in a dramatic penalty shootout with Blackburn midweek in the FA Cup; we landed a nice lay on them at odds on in the 90 minutes market, but as we know Newcastle have been a different side at home this season. I’m not so keen to be against them with home advantage, however Wolves have been over-performing in front of goal. With another win over Sheffield United at the weekend, they actually moved ahead of Newcastle in the table! That’s probably a reflection of how poor Newcastle have been this season, especially away from home, and surely Eddie Howe must be feeling the heat with the big money behind Newcastle these days. It almost feels like Mark Hughes at Manchester City when the money had just arrived. It wouldn’t be a total surprise to see someone like Jose Mourinho rock up for next season would it!
Wolves come into this game full of confidence – they’ve won three of their last four Premier League and two of those have come against Chelsea and Spurs. Both of those wins came away from home too. As I mentioned above, Wolves have definitely been over-performing this season. Their average xG created is only 1.18 which is towards the bottom of the Premier League attacking figures but their actual goals scored is much higher at 1.54. They are conceding the same level of chances, and that basically equals mid-table. Newcastle are at the same level, except they are actually creating what they are scoring because their average xG created is 1.50. At home this rises to 1.79 and they have been a lot better at the back at home too. Their average xG conceded at home is only 1.30 compared to 1.77 away from home. I’m going to keep stakes small for this one, but Newcastle look the value option at 1.96 in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
One point win Newcastle to beat Wolves at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewWlv
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V LIVERPOOL
3pm Liverpool are back in Premier League action after their Carabao Cup win last weekend. Both these sides were involved in the FA Cup Fifth Round on Wednesday night with Nottingham Forest losing to Manchester United and Liverpool running out easy winners gainst Southampton. Jurgen Klopp actually moaned about having to play an FA Cup game so close to the Carabao Cup Final; I know he always complains about fixture but surely that one took the biscuit. Without having kicked a ball this week in the Premier League, Nottingham Forest find themselves in a worse position after the Everton appeal reduced their ten point deduction. That left Nottingham Forest sitting in 17th – they have a four point cushion on the bottom three, but Luton do have a game in hand so things could still get very interesting. I know Brentford are only one point ahead of Forest, but it really feels like that last spot in the relegation zone is going to be Forest or Luton.
Obviously results against the likes of Liverpool can’t be factored into whether or not Forest stay up. Anything in a fixture like this is a complete bonus. Liverpool come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.58 with Nottingham Forest 6.0 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing. There aren’t many positives for Forest this season – to be honest the only positive is that they don’t sit in the relegation zone! They are one of only three sides to have an average xG created under 1.0 this season – the other two are Sheffield United and Burnley; both nailed on to go down. They’ve been poor at the back too, and it’s very hard to see past a comfortable Liverpool win here. I know they have a couple of injuries at the moment, but I’d have them sub 1.5 here and the 1.58 feels massive in my opinion. We have one of the best attacking sides in Europe here against a very average side; the 1.58 is ten ticks too big for me and it’s worth a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Liverpool to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NttLiv
TOTTENHAM V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm We finish the bumper 3pm fixture list with Spurs hosting Crystal Palace. Spurs suffered a massive blow to their Top Four hopes last time out with a loss here against Wolves – they’ve had a break since because their fixture got postponed with Chelsea in the Carabao Cup Final – they need to regroup and come again now they are five points behind Aston Villa, but they do have a game in hand. There’s still a long way to go, I’m sure we’ll have plenty of drama too, but it’s advantage Unai Emery’s men for the time being. Crystal Palace have been through a lot lately, and it was nice to see them win last weekend against Burnley – as you would expect given how poor Burnley have been this season. That was a good start for Oliver Glasner – I know some Palace fans weren’t happy with the football that they were playing this season, but it was a very sad end for Roy Hodgson given all his time at the club. He deserved a better finish than being taken ill at their training ground and stepping down while in hospital. It will be interesting to see what type of tactics Glasner empoys here; will he attack Spurs or sit back?
I would suggest attacking Spurs is probably the better option. Spurs have been creating a lot under Ange Postecoglou but they have also been conceding a host of sloppy goals. Their average xG created is as high as 1.80 which is the fourth best attacking figure in the Premier League, but their chances conceded is far too high. For example, it’s only marginal but Spurs are conceding more chances than Palace this season. Spurs come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.54 with Crystal Palace 6.8 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. I have to say I wouldn’t be rushing to back the 1.54 on Spurs here given their issues at the back, and possible new manager bounce from Palace. I wouldn’t be a fan of Palace looking at their stats, but obviously they are in a new situation now and we have to judge these games over the next few weeks. I feel we’ll see plenty of goals here, and Over 2.5 goals stands out at 1.55 in what should be an open game with plenty of mistakes at the back too. The goals bet looks much better value compared to the Spurs win at one tick shorter.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TtmCry
LUTON TOWN V ASTON VILLA
5.30pm We finish the day with Luton Town hosting Aston Villa. This should be an interesting game – every game is massive for these two at the moment given where they sit at the top and bottom of the table. Aston Villa come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.79 with Luton Town 4.5 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. Although Everton were always very unlikely to actually go down, their ten point deduction being reduced this week was a blow to Luton. It hasn’t been a good week for them as they exited the FA Cup on Tuesday night as well; although they got drawn against Manchester City so I suppose that was to be expected. The relegation battle is going to be between Nottingham Forest and Luton, so the Everton situation isn’t really a major deal. Luton start the weekend four points behind Forest, but they do have a game in hand so things could get very close! Aston Villa are in the box seat for the final Top Four spot as I pointed out in the Spurs game above; a five point advantage is quite a nice place to be even if Spurs have a game in hand. That fixture postponed was against Chelsea too – OK Chelsea have been so poor this season but we all know London Derbies can produce plenty of drama.
On paper, this is a game that Villa should win. I have to say when I clicked into the market I felt the 1.79 was on the big side. Villa definitely had a big wobble recently, but they have steadied the ship with two wins against Fulham and Nottingham Forest. They beat Luton 3-1 earlier in the season, and they completely controlled the game too. Villa are sitting in fifth spot on the away form table, and they have been creating decent chances away from home this season. Luton have an average xG conceded of 1.77 this season which is very high; that’s the third worst defensive figure in the Premier League. At home that improves, but there’s still a huge gulf in class between the sides and I feel the 1.79 on Villa is too big to ignore. Luton had a lot of momentum recently but they’ve been conceding goals for fun lately; Villa can punish them here and the 1.79 is worth a confident bet to finish the day.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Aston Villa to beat Luton Town at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutAst
