SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews the five Premier League matches each with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER UNITED V EVERTON
12.30pm A cracking Premier League Saturday awaits on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have had some very busy Saturday’s recently, and we “only” have five fixtures to enjoy. We kick off the day with Manchester United hosting Everton – these two clubs have been in the headlines this season for all the wrong reasons. United have obviously been struggling, and then Everton had their point deduction – so far you could say it’s been a season to forget for both of them. That being said, they’ve played better football this season than the last two season and they would haven’t been involved in the relegation bar the point deduction. As you would expect with home advantage, Manchester United are the odds on favourites. A reflection of how average they have been this season is the fact that they are trading as high as 1.93 though, while Everton are 4.2 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. On the bare figures, Everton have been a better side than Manchester United this season which is remarkable. The two sides have very similar attacking figures; Manchester United have an average xG created of 1.49 with Everton just 0.01 under at 1.48. The difference between the sides is at the back, and that’s were United have been so poor.
Everton have an average xG conceded of 1.44 – with that level of form and an overall figure of +0.04 they are basically your average mid-table side. Manchester United’s average xG conceded is a very high 1.65 however. That’s a huge figure for a side aiming for the European spots to be honest. It’s actually the fifth worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season. If United are going to get better they have to sort the issues out at the back, and it’s hard to have any confidence in them at the moment. Just when you think they have good momentum they produce a performance like they did against Fulham here two weeks ago. United have had Over 2.5 goals in their last nine Premier League games, and that’s trading a very big 1.75 to make it ten in a row. Goals are never far away with this United side given they have been so poor at the back, and Everton have leaked chances away from home too. This should be an open game and at 1.75 Over 2.5 goals looks worthy of a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MnuEve
BOURNEMOUTH V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm We have three fixtures kicking off at 3pm, and we start with Bournemouth hosting Sheffield United. It’s fair to say Bournemouth will go into a lot of Acca’s this weekend after how poor Sheffield United have been recently. They were completely embarrassed on Monday Night Football by Arsenal, but as anyone who is a fan of xG will know they have been nailed on to go back down to the Championship for a while now. Not only are they the worst performing side in the Premier League, they are the worst performing side from all of Europe’s elite leagues. Bournemouth come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.37 with Sheffield United 9.8 and the draw is 5.8. at the time of writing. It’s not often Bournemouth would be odds on favourites, never mind as short as 1.37! It’s not the shortest price of the day, that title goes to Arsenal later, but it’s definitely the shortest price I’ve saw Bournemouth trade in the Premier League. It’s just hard to say anything positive about Sheffield United to be honest, and you can’t blame the market for having Bournemouth so short. In terms of value, I wouldn’t want to lumping on Bournemouth at such short odds but it’s hard to see past a home win.
With the match odds market the way it is, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. Over 2.5 goals is the obvious place to start, especially considering how many goals Sheffield United have conceded recently. That’s trading 1.58 but I would expect Bournemouth to have to do most of the work there. Sheffield United have failed to score in four of their last five Premier League games, and Both Teams Not To Score is trading 2.02. Bournemouth aren’t exactly solid at the back however, their average xG conceded is 1.57 which is pretty high. I know they are up against the worst attacking side in the league here, but Bournemouth have been playing a very open game this season – their actual goals conceded average is higher than their xG at 1.81. I prefer the Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.58 compared to the Bournemouth clean sheet, but this is a game for small stakes in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouShu
CRYSTAL PALACE V LUTON TOWN
3pm Crystal Palace host Luton next, and this is a huge game for Luton. As things stand they are four points behind Nottingham Forest, they have a game in hand and on the run in they have to play Spurs, Arsenal and Manchester City. They have a huge couple of weeks coming up as they have this fixture, Bournemouth and then Nottingham Forest before they get to a difficult period. I believe they will have to overtake Forest before they get there, which is very possible given the Bournemouth fixture is their game in hand. Nottingham Forest have to play Brighton, Spurs, Manchester City and Chelsea in their run-in. Luton are definitely the favourites to go down, but they’ve given themselves a fighting chance unlike Burnley and Sheffield United. If they are indeed going to stay up though, they need to be getting points in games like this – even away from home. Palace are an average side – they are only eight points off the relegation zone after all and they’ve been conceding plenty of goals lately. Both sides have been very limited going forward, Luton are actually marginally creating more.
Luton’s average xG created is 1.13 while the Crystal Palace figure is 1.12. Both are poor, sitting in the bottom five attacking figures in the Premier League. The major difference is Palace have been a lot better than Luton at the back. Luton’s average xG conceded is a whopping 1.77 – the third worst defensive figure in the league. You can see why Crystal Palace are the odds on favourites here at 1.82 but I wouldn’t be rushing to take that price – Luton are 4.9 with the draw 4.0 at the time of writing. While Luton’s attacking figure is low, they have been involved in plenty of dramatic games lately. Over 2.5 goals has collected in their last six Premier League games, and Both Teams To Score has won is eight of their last nine too – the only loser being the 4-0 win for Luton against Brighton; who saw that coming! I do like goals here; I know both sides aren’t great going forward but they are poor at the back. Over 2.5 goals looks a nice position at 1.84, while I wouldn’t put anyone off Both Teams To Score at only one tick lower.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryLut
WOLVES V FULHAM
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Wolves hosting Fulham. This isn’t the most glamorous fixture today, and it screams a type of game that gets glossed over on Match Of The Day unless something dramatic happens with VAR or something. Both sides start the weekend sitting comfortably in mid-table – Chelsea are sitting between them but there’s only three points between them. Too low to be considered for European football, too high to be in the relegation talk – you could say they are going to have quite a boring run-in. I suppose when the term “on the beach early” comes into play, it’s usually sides like this that have nothing to play for. We have the most open market of the day – indeed it’s the most open market of the entire weekend. Wolves are the favourites at 2.66 with home advantage while Fulham are trading 2.9 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. Home advantage could be absolutely key here; I know Fulham picked up a win recently at Old Trafford but they have been poor away from home this season.
Prior to the win at Old Trafford, and let’s face it Manchester United have been so poor this season, Fulham only had seven points away from home all season. That put them in the bottom three; of course they’ve moved up a little with those three points. Only Nottingham Forest, Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United have less away from home this season now. Looking at their xG figures, it’s been like two different sides. At home, Fulham create more chances than they concede. Away from home, they have a whopping average xG conceded of 1.83 and create 1.21. Those figures are very poor, and while Wolves are quite average I feel they can get the job done here. I’m definitely keen to keep stakes small – Wolves have been poor going forward this season and at home their average xG created is only 1.2 but Fulham concede so many chances here they can grind out a win.
The Striker Says:
One point win Wolves to beat Fulham at 2.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolFlm
ARSENAL V BRENTFORD
5.30pm We finish Saturday with Arsenal hosting Brentford, and anything bar a comfortable home win will be a massive shock. This could be a huge weekend for Arsenal – win here and then sit back to watch Liverpool v Manchester City on Sunday afternoon. They could easily be sitting top of the table by the end of the weekend – a draw is a pretty likely result between the top two. Arsenal will be fully expected to win here, and they are trading at the shortest price of the weekend. The home win is 1.25 with Brentford 14.0 and the draw is 7.6 at the time of writing. Brentford have been having a very poor season – they start the weekend just six points away from the relegation zone. Obviously they are your classic example of being “too good to go down” but their place in the table just highlights how poor they have been. With Arsenal in superb form, I feel this is a case of how many goals can Arsenal score rather than will they win. They put Sheffield United to the sword on Monday night quite quickly, and you wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar happen here. Sitting in behind Liverpool and Manchester City with no pressure seems to suit Arsenal.
They’ve put together seven Premier League wins in a row now, and since they beat Liverpool 3-1 to get back into the title rave they’ve won 6-0, 5-0, 4-1 and 6-0. I know they had three easy fixtures there along with the 4-1 win over Newcastle, but they are absolutely full of confidence at the moment. They’re scoring so many goals too; one might ask if they hit top this weekend is it too soon given how they handled the run-in last season! Brentford picked up a much needed 2-2 draw against Chelsea last weekend; Chelsea have been so poor this season though. From their last 13 Premier League games Brentford have lost ten. They did hold Manchester City to “just” a 1-0 loss, but they shipped four goals against Liverpool. I expect Arsenal to win comfortably here, and they can cover the Handicap too. They are trading 1.69 -1.5 goals and that looks cracking value – I felt we’d see that price sub 1.6 before clicking into the market. I feel we’re getting so much value at 1.69 it’s worth a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Arsenal -1.5 goals to beat Brentford at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsBrt
