PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews the Premier League games including FULHAM v SPURS at 5.30pm – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BURNLEY V BRENTFORD
3pm We have a shorter than usual Premier League fixture list this Saturday as it’s an FA Cup Quarter-Final weekend on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Nevertheless, we have three fixtures to enjoy – all eyes will be on Luton against Nottingham Forest in a massive relegation battle but we also have Spurs in action too as they battle for a Top Four spot. We start the day with Burnley hosting Brentford however, and this should be a very competitive game. Both sides will be bitterly disappointed with their seasons so far. Burnley look nailed on to go back down to the Championship while Brentford are looking like they will be dragged into a relegation battle now too. Brentford fans must have been on the edge of their seats when Luton lead Bournemouth 3-0 before a remarkable second half comeback. That was a huge turnaround from a Brentford point of view in my opinion – if Luton had held on that would have left Brentford only two points off the relegation zone starting today. As things stand, they are just far enough away that they don’t have to panic – the reality is however is they just haven’t been good enough this season. They come up against one of the worst sides in the league here though, which should make for an interesting betting heat.
Brentford come into the game as the favourites at 2.26 with Burnley 3.35 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. Brentford have only won three times in their last 17 Premier Leagues – those wins came against Luton, Nottingham Forest and Wolves – you could also put Burnley in that range of average sides too so while Brentford come into the game in poor form, as I said above they face a poor side here. There aren’t many positives with Burnley this season – they have an average xG created of 0.94 which is the second worst attacking figure – only Sheffield United are creating less. Both sides have been poor at the back too; there’s actually only 0.04 between them at the back, both sitting in the bottom six on defensive figures. It’s hard to have confidence in either side here; you’d say Burnley could get a result with home advantage but then they’ve only managed five points here all season which is the worst home record in the Premier League. Over 2.5 goals is worth a small bet at 1.81 given all the mistakes at the back from these two – perhaps the draw is value at 3.75 but I prefer the Overs bet.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.81 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BurBre
LUTON TOWN V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm Luton host Nottingham Forest next and while this might not be the most high quality game of the day, it’s certainly the highlight with so much on the line in the relegation battle. It’s already been a dramatic week for both sets of fans as they watched Bournemouth beat Luton 4-3 on Wednesday night. Luton had a 3-0 lead at half-time only to throw it away in the second half – Forest fans would have been on a total rollercoaster watching that. Luton fans must have been absolutely gutted. After all that, Luton stayed on 21 points with Nottingham Forest three ahead of them on 24. I’ve been saying for a few weeks now that Sheffield United and Burnley are nailed on for the bottom two spots and then it will be either one of these sides that joins them in the Championship. A win over Bournemouth midweek would have been absolutely fantastic for Luton, but they have to get over that quickly – they can still jump ahead of Forest with a win here. The goal difference is only two at the moment. What a massive game then, and Luton will be pleased to have home advantage. However, they do sit in the relegation zone on the home form table – only 11 points at home from 14 games.
They meet a side who sit in the relegation zone on the away form table however! Forest have only managed nine points from their 14 away games this season, once again struggled on the road just like last season. I have to say I was very surprised when I clicked into the market here. I was expecting to see Luton as the favourites but that isn’t the case! Nottingham Forest are the favourites at 2.56 with Luton 2.88 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. I’m very surprised to see Forest as the favourites with their away form, and let’s be honest – we have two poor sides here and there isn’t much between them looking at the stats. Luton have actually created more than Forest this season, Forest are one of only three sides with an average xG created under 1.0. I know Luton are conceding more, but hopefully they can get over the result midweek and focus on this game. They are definitely creating more over the last few weeks and they can get a result here.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Nottingham Forest to beat Luton Town at 2.56 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutNot
FULHAM V TOTTENHAM
5.30pm It’s a London Derby to finish Saturday in the Premier League as Fulham host Spurs. This could cap off an excellent week for Spurs as we head into the International Break after this weekend. A massive 4-0 win away to Aston Villa last weekend was a huge boost in the Top Four battle, and now they have a chance to jump over Villa into fourth with a win here. That will give Spurs a one point advantage with the sides having played the same amount of games, however Aston Villa are in action on Sunday away to West Ham so Villa could reclaim that fourth spot! Of course, the game in hand for Spurs will come against Chelsea as that was the fixture postponed during the Carabao Cup Final weekend. There’s plenty of drama to come, but Spurs are definitely the favourites now – for the time being at least! There would be nothing as “classic Spursy” than beating Aston Villa 4-0 and then losing to Fulham the next weekend! As you would expect, Spurs come into the game as the favourites but there are plenty of willing layers and they aren’t trading odds on. Spurs are 2.1 with Fulham 3.5 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing.
Overall this season Spurs have been a much better side. Their average xG created is 1.79 which is the fourth best attacking figure in the league. If indeed they do end up finishing in that fourth spot, they would deserve it in my opinion. The major issue here though, and the reason why Spurs aren’t odds on, is that Fulham have been a different side at home compared to away from home. At home, Fulham have been playing some excellent football – their average xG created at home is 1.53 and they are conceding less at 1.33. Away from home their average xG conceded is a whopping 1.78. While Spurs have definitely been an improved side under Ange Postecoglou but I have to say the 2.1 doesn’t jump off the page here as value. With both sides playing an open game this season, I feel this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.55 so while the market is expecting goals, I still feel there’s value in the price. It’s worth a confident bet to finish an interesting Saturday in the Premier League!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulTtm
