PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews a bumper Easter Saturday of Premier League action all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NEWCASTLE V WEST HAM
12.30pm The Premier League is back with a bang on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have a bumper day of action with eight fixtures to go through, only the Final day of the season will have more fixtures than this! We start the day with Newcastle hosting West Ham. This should be an interesting game – West Ham are above Newcastle in the table but their performance level has been way lower. You’d have to say that West Ham have been very lucky to have the amount of points that they have managed this season – their xG figures have a lot of red flags! They only have an average xG created of 1.17 but their actual goals scored average is 1.59 – that’s a huge difference but eventually they will stop scoring from awkward angles. I know xG isn’t for everyone and football is all about putting the ball in the net to get results, but it’s a superb guide of probability. Eventually the Hammers will run into trouble because they aren’t creating enough and their average xG conceded is 1.77 which is the third worst defensive figure in the Premier League. Only Sheffield United and Luton are conceding more, and they both are in the relegation fight.
Newcastle have had a tonne of issues this season, after the high of a Top Four finish they have reverted to a mid-table club. On reflection, you’d have to say that they peaked too soon; when the Saudi money came in they were in the relegation fight. They jumped straight up, and I hope that doesn’t cause trouble with fans and manager/player decisions from the owners. Manchester City didn’t become as good as they were over-night – Newcastle are based at the stage when Mark Hughes was manager of City. Nevertheless, this is a game that they should win with home advantage and they come into the game as the odds on favourites. Newcastle at 1.9 with West Ham 4.1 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. It’s hard to have confidence in Newcastle given their season, but they have obviously been much more comfortable at home. They have conceded a lot less chances too; their average xG conceded at home is 1.31 compared to 1.76. I’m not going to go crazy with stakes, but West Ham are a side to be against looking at their performances and Newcastle can grind out a win here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Newcastle to beat West Ham at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewWhu
BOURNEMOUTH V EVERTON
3pm We have five fixtures kicking off at 3pm and they pretty much have everything you could ask for. Red-hot favourites, competitive markets and games that will have a big impact on the relegation battle. We begin with Bournemouth v Everton, and we have an interesting market here. Bournemouth are the favourites at 2.22 with Everton 3.4 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. Everton have been on a woeful run recently – they have gone 11 games without a win now, but five draws have kept them out of the relegation zone. Plus obviously they got their points deduction reduced on appeal which helped a lot – they are still hanging around the relegation battle; they start the weekend only four points away from the bottom three but the reality is Nottingham Forest and Luton have been worse. The four points deduction for Nottingham Forest has helped Everton too, obviously. In fairness to the Toffees they have played reasonably good football, they’ve just struggled for results. Their average xG created is 1.49 for example which is within 0.02 of Chelsea, Manchester United and Newcastle – they’ve actually conceded less chances than all of those three too.
I know they are all having disappointing seasons, but it highlights that Everton have pretty much been playing to a mid-table standard. You have to include Bournemouth in that bracket too; their average xG created is 1.51 – the same as Chelsea and 0.01 better than Manchester United and Newcastle. Their average xG conceded is a little higher at 1.56, but Manchester United have been conceding more chances! Bournemouth have played a very open game this season and it has worked for them – yes, they concede chances and goals but they’ve created enough to not be involved in the relegation battle which was the case last season and then obviously they went down in 2019/20. I can see a very open and entertaining game here, and Over 2.5 goals makes a lot of appeal at 1.78 – Everton concede a lot more away from home, and we know Bournemouth will play an open game too. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see goals here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouEvr
CHELSEA V BURNLEY
3pm The Chelsea saga continues next as they host Burnley; this is a game they should win on paper but as we all know, Chelsea have been hard to trust this season. They are the red-hot favourites here – currently trading 1.33 at the time of writing while Burnley are 11.0 and the draw is 6.2. There aren’t many positives with Burnley this season, but you still wouldn’t be rushing to lump on Chelsea at 1.33 given the way they have played at times this season! You couldn’t exactly put them in an Acca as your weekend banker. They have put together four games without losing though, and that included a 1-1 draw away to Manchester City. They conceded in every game though, and obviously attention will be on the goals market here. Chelsea have actually only kept one clean sheet in their last ten Premier League games; that was here against Fulham who have been very poor away from home this season. The issue here from a betting point of view is that Burnley have been woeful this season, and the question is are they good enough to take advantage of a few Chelsea mistakes to get on the score sheet.
Burnley have an average xG created of 0.95 this season. They are one of only three sides with an average xG created under 1.0, and only Sheffield United have created less. It’s easy to see why Sheffield United and Burnley take up the bottom two spots in the table. A recent win over Brentford has given them a slim chance of getting back into the mix – they start the weekend five points away from Luton in 17th. They need that Nottingham Forest appeal to fail to have any chance of staying up really. Away from home their stats are dismal – their average xG created is only 0.82 and their average conceded is as high as 1.87. Chelsea have been conceding a lot of chances this season, and goals, but Both Teams To Score is trading odds on at 1.91 and I’m not going to back Burnley at odds on to score. I’m keeping stakes low here because Chelsea have been so disappointing at times this season, but they can cover the 1.5 Handicap here and that’s worth backing at 1.87.
The Striker Says:
One point win Chelsea -1.5 goals to beat Burnley at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheBrn
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Next we have a huge game in the relegation battle as Nottingham Forest host Crystal Palace. A four points deduction for Nottingham Forest for breaching Premier League profitability and sustainability rules was a hammer blow and put them into the relegation zone. They have launched an appeal, and all eyes will be on that given there’s only one point between themselves and Luton. The relegation battle could easily be decided off the pitch this season! It goes without saying that it has been hard to take for most football fans this season to see Everton and Nottingham Forest handed points deductions while Manchester City face 115 chargers and seemingly nothing is happening. Money most certainly talks in the Premier League. Nevertheless, Forest have to focus on their own situations. They actually haven’t got a bad run-in, but they definitely have some games that are more winnable than others – they face Manchester City and Chelsea here for example. I would suggest their best chance of points come from this fixture, Fulham here, Sheffield United and Burnley both away from home too.
Palace have been through a lot recently with Roy Hodgson being taken ill and thus having to step down from his role. I know Palace fans were unhappy at the time with their style of play but he offered so much to the club he deserved a better ending to his career. Palace have played a more open game since, and while I don’t read too much into their overall stats because of the change their average xG created is 1.13 this season which is poor. Obviously Nottingham Forest have an average under 1.0 which is even worse, but as I said above this is a still a chance for them to get a result against another average side. While this is the most open market of the 3pm games, we still have a decent favourite. Nottingham Forest are 2.3 with Crystal Palace 3.5 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing. I have to say I expected a much more open market, and was a bit surprised to see Forest trading as short as 2.3. From a value point of view I’m very happy with a Forest lay here – they just haven’t created enough to justify odds so short, even against a limited side like Palace.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Nottingham Forest to beat Crystal Palace at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotCrl
SHEFFIELD UNITED V FULHAM
3pm Another fixture involving a side in the relegation battle as Sheffield United host Fulham. The only thing to say here is can we even say Sheffield United are in a “battle?” They are nailed to the bottom of the table, and I don’t give them any chance of staying up. 14 points from 28 games leaves them eight points off Luton in 17th – they won’t even get back into the mix to stay up never mind actually go past three sides. The reality is that they just haven’t been good enough – they have an overall performance level of -1.10 which is the worst figure from the whole of Europe’s elite leagues, not just the Premier League! To highlight how poor Sheffield United have been this season, the only figure close to them is Lorient in Ligue 1 with -0.89. Sheffield United have an average xG created of just 0.82 which is the worst attacking figure in the Premier League and they also have the worst defensive Premier League figure with an average xG conceded of 1.92. With issues all over the pitch, where do you even begin to solve the problems? It just looks like we’re all going through the motions now until the end of the season.
It’s a sign of how badly the market rates Sheffield United that Fulham are trading as the odds on favourites away from home, when they have been pretty poor on the road. Fulham are trading 1.77 with Sheffield United 4.9 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. Fulham put a massive dent in Spurs Top Four hopes with a 3-0 win prior to the International Break, but that fixture came with home advantage. Away from home, Fulham have been conceding chances left, right and centre. Their average xG conceded away from home is 1.78 compared to their created average at 1.27. At home, they are creating more than they are conceding and they’ve been like a different side. I know they beat Manchester United recently at Old Trafford, but we know United have had a tonne of issues – only Sheffield United and Burnley have recorded less points on the road this season. That puts me off the 1.77, but it is hard to support Sheffield United – with all the chances Fulham have been conceding away from home I feel the best position here is a small bet on Both Teams To Score at 1.72.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ShuFul
TOTTENHAM V LUTON TOWN
3pm We finish the 3pm fixtures with the shortest price of the weekend as Spurs host Luton. It’s not often that Spurs will take the title of shortest price of the weekend, especially with Liverpool and Manchester City at home too but they play Brighton and Arsenal on Super Sunday. Spurs put themselves into a superb position in the race for fourth when beating Aston Villa 4-0 away from home, but then – as if anything screamed the term Spursy – they lost 3-0 to Fulham in the following game. This is a game they simply cannot afford to mess up in, and the market is confident too. Spurs are trading as short as 1.24 at the time of writing with Luton 13.5 and the draw is 8.2. Luton fans would have been “happy” to see the Nottingham Forest points deduction news – as happy as football fans could be given Manchester City’s punishment is seemingly nowhere to be seen. Luton fans just want to stay in the Premier League, and if a points deduction for another side does that then so be it. Obviously we have to wait for the appeal, but I do feel Forest have an easier run-in compared to Luton.
Out of the nine games they have left, Luton have to play Spurs here, Arsenal and Manchester City all away. They don’t have many home games where you’d say they have a superb chance of winning – Brentford and Fulham probably their best chance of wins. They have to just keep grinding away and see what happens – they need to improve at the back though because their average xG conceded is a very high 1.78. Only Sheffield United have conceded more chances. For all the mistakes at the back Spurs have made this season, they have the fourth best attacking xG figure. I think this is a case of how many goals can Spurs score rather than will they win, but Both Teams To Score will also be a popular bet at 1.68 given how open Spurs have been. I wouldn’t put anyone off that bet, but that’s a reasonably short price for Luton to score. I prefer Spurs to cover the Handicap, they are trading 1.6 -1.5 goals and that looks a very nice position. Luton concede close to two goals while Spurs create similar – they can cover the Handicap on the way to winning.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Tottenham -1.5 goals to beat Luton Town at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotLut
ASTON VILLA V WOLVES
5.30pm We have two TV evening games which is fantastic, and we start with Aston Villa hosting Wolves. As I mentioned above, Villa suffered a massive setback when losing 4-0 here to Spurs, but then Spurs went and lose to Fulham so that has opened things back up. Villa would have been disappointed to only draw 1-1 with West Ham before the International Break, but basically where we are now is Villa have a three points advantage over Spurs while Spurs have a game in hand which is a London Derby against Chelsea. Interesting times ahead; there’s bound to be drama! Spurs are the marginal favourites comparing their run-in fixtures in my opinion, but there isn’t much in it. When you look at the fixture list, you’d have to say that this is a must win game for Villa – they still have to play Manchester City and Arsenal, along with tricky fixtures against Chelsea and Brighton – plus they are in the Europa Conference League Quarter-Finals. They come into this game as the odds favourites – the home win is trading at 1.68 with Wolves 5.2 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing.
Wolves sit comfortably in mid-table, and you have to give them credit for grinding out as many results as they’ve had this season. However, their average xG created is only 1.18 which is pretty low. That’s in the bottom seven attacking figures wise – they are far too good to be close to the relegation battle at the same time they don’t have stats that reflect a team sitting in ninth. Away from home they are conceding an average xG of 1.6 which is pretty high; they did manage a 1-1 draw when they had home advantage against Villa earlier in the season however – plus Wolves have recently beat Chelsea and Spurs away from home! It feels like Villa have lost momentum in recent weeks, and although Wolves are a limited side the 1.68 does feel a little short here. The recent wins for Villa have all come against the lower sides – they have played the bottom three, but they did concede twice against Nottingham Forest and Luton too. I’m happy to keep stakes small, but the Villa lay is the best call from a value point of view in my opinion. I just expect Wolves to make it closer than those odds suggest but I fully respect that Wolves xG figures don’t make for good reading!
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Wolves at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AvlWol
BRENTFORD V MANCHESTER UNITED
8pm It’s not often that we get an 8pm Saturday kick off, but it’s always enjoyable – I’m actually surprised we don’t see this TV slot more. Brentford host Manchester United in what should be a very entertaining game. We have two very open sides here and this game screams goals to be honest. Manchester United are the favourites at 2.3 with Brentford 3.15 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. It’s a sign of the times that United don’t come into this game as the odds on favourites given Brentford are sitting down in 15th only five points off the relegation. The reality is it’s very hard to have confidence in this United side, and you can completely understand why they might be a popular lay. They have struggled to score goals at times this season, but their stats reflect that most of their issues are at the back. They have an average xG conceded of 1.66 this season which is very poor – that’s more than their average xG created of 1.5 and it’s the fifth worst defensive figure in the Premier League. The only good news for United fans is that Brentford have the fourth worst defensive figure!
As I said above, I feel this game screams goals and Over 2.5 goals is a very appealing bet at 1.6. Both Teams To Score is also a nice option at 1.54, but I marginally prefer the Overs bet. Over 2.5 goals has collected in nine of United’s last ten Premier League games – the only losing time was a 2-0 home win against Everton just before the International Break. Brentford have very similar good stats for Overs. That’s collected in 11 of their last 13 Premier League games. I was actually surprised to see Overs trading as big as 1.6 when I clicked into the market – it’s just hard not to see goals between these two, they make so many mistakes at the back! Brentford are going to play an open game too, they will know they can have success if they attack this United side, and United usually fight fire-with-fire even if it doesn’t work out for them sometimes. I feel we’re getting so much value at 1.6 it’s worth a Max Bet at the odds!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrtMun
