PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews the six games on Saturday starting with NEWCASTLE v SPURS at 12.30pm all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NEWCASTLE V TOTTENHAM
12.30pm It’s another bumper Saturday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with six Premier League fixtures to go through. With Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool all involved in the Champions League and Europa League Quarter-Finals in Europe midweek, Saturday is mainly about the Top Four race and relegation battle – although City are in action at home to Luton; they’ll be expected to win that. We start the day with a huge game in the Top Four race as Newcastle host Spurs; as things stand Spurs moved into fourth after a win over Nottingham Forest last weekend while Aston Villa could only draw at home to Brentford. After those results it’s definitely advantage Spurs; they have a game in hand as well, although that comes against Chelsea. Villa have to play Arsenal away on Sunday, so a win here for Spurs could easily see them looking at a three point advantage by the end of the weekend. Newcastle have been pretty average this season, they’ve had a huge drop off since last season, however they have been a much better side at home so this should be a very interesting game to start the day.
We have a very open betting heat here, and Spurs are the favourites at 2.42 with Newcastle 2.82 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. This should be an entertaining game – both sides have made a lot of mistakes at the back this season but they have also been creating decent chances. Newcastle have an average xG created of 1.53 while for Spurs it’s 1.79. That 1.79 figure is the fourth best attacking figure in the Premier League; you can say they do deserve that fourth spot more than Aston Villa in my opinion. The thing about Spurs however is that disaster is never far away at the back. Both sides are conceding more goals than their average xG conceded, Newcastle have been very sloppy at the back. I would lean towards Spurs in the match odds market, but this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.4 so the market is expecting goals, however I like Over 3.5 goals at 1.97 which looks a very nice position to start the day. This is going to be a very end-to-end game with plenty of chances.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 3.5 goals at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewTtm
BRENTFORD V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm We have four fixtures kicking off at 3pm, and we start the afternoon with Brentford hosting Sheffield United. This is an interesting market; Sheffield United have been very poor this season but Brentford are only four points away from the relegation zone and they have really struggled to win games this season. They come into the game as the hot favourites, but I’m not sure I’d be rushing to back Brentford at odds on! The home win is trading 1.47 with Sheffield United 7.6 and the draw is 5.2 at the time of writing. I have to say if you’re having an Acca this weekend, Brentford aren’t the type of side to include in it at 1.47 – they just haven’t performed well enough this season and they haven’t had as many wins as you’d like when considering to back a 1.47 shot. I know there aren’t any positives with Sheffield United this season so I’m not going to recommended a Brentford lay, but this definitely looks like a match odds market to avoid looking at those odds. Brentford have only had four wins at home all season which is a pretty poor return – they’ve just been so open and sloppy at the back.
As I have highlighted for the past few weekends, Sheffield United are not only the worst performing side in the Premier League but the whole of Europe. Their stats make for very grim reading, and it’s just a case of there’s nothing positive to say about them. They have been desperate going forward and at the back. They’ve only managed one win away from home all season, only six points away from home is the worst away record in the Premier League. I can understand why the market has Brentford so short, I just don’t want to back them at those odds. Sheffield United are nailed on to go down, and they have started attacking more in recent weeks – they have managed to score in their last four Premier League games. I feel they can find the net at some stage here too; Both Teams To Score is trading 1.78 and that is worth backing considering how poor Brentford have been at the back.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreShu
BURNLEY V BRIGHTON
3pm Next we have Burnley hosting Brighton, and it goes without saying that every game is a must win game for Burnley at this stage of the season. A win last weekend for Luton made their situation even worse – they start this weekend now six points behind Nottingham Forest and Luton. I can’t see them catching both of them, but they do still have to play Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest. They also have Manchester United and Spurs to play; granted both of those sides can throw in the odd shocker – especially Manchester United! Brighton have struggled to win games this season and sit down in 10th, so Burnley will give themselves a decent chance here. They did have a big setback last weekend though; after putting together four games without a loss they lost 1-0 to Everton. I know it was only three draws and a win, but it was still their best run of the season! On paper, this is a game that Brighton should win but they’ve only managed four wins from their last 16 Premier League games. It’s also only one win from their last six Premier League games too – you can see why they aren’t trading odds on.
Despite not being odds on, Brighton are still strong favourites. They are trading 2.1 with Burnley 3.6 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. It’s hard to have a lot of faith in Brighton given their record this season, but to their credit they have beaten Nottingham Forest and Sheffield United recently – you’d put Burnley in that bracket. It’s worth mentioning though that Burnley held them to a 1-1 draw when Brighton had home advantage earlier in the season. Brighton’s average xG created this season is 1.68 which is the fifth best attacking figure in the Premier League; they really should be winning more games! The issue for them is they have been very poor at the back; their actual goals conceded average this season is a high 1.58. That figure, plus their failure to win games, puts me off the 2.1. I feel Burnley can score at some stage, very similar thoughts to the Brentford game above, and Both Teams To Score is worth backing at 1.61.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrnBri
MANCHESTER CITY V LUTON TOWN
3pm We have the shortest price of the Premier League weekend here as Manchester City host Luton. City are trading as short as 1.12 at the time of writing, and if you fancy a shock then Luton are 29.0 with the draw at 14.0. It’s fair to say anything bar a comfortable City win here would be a shock – it is worth mentioning from a trading point of view that Liverpool started at a shorter priced to beat Sheffield United last week, and they traded higher in-running before scoring to take the lead in the 76th minute. You’d have to expect City to score early and control the game here though. This is going to be a case of how many goals can City score rather than will they win. Luton did record a massive win over Bournemouth last weekend – that was a huge result in the relegation battle and means they go into this weekend level on points with Nottingham Forest; but obviously Premier League fixtures don’t come more difficult than City away. Anything here would be a complete bonus for Luton in the relegation battle.
The best Luton can hope for here is a draw, and I’d expect them to approach the game very negatively. They’ll just have to put XI men behind and ball and hope for an off day from City. Luton have an average xG conceded of 1.72 this season which is the fourth worst defensive figure in the Premier League. Given City have average xG created of 2.19 which is the second best attacking figure – only 0.01 behind Liverpool – it’s hard to see how Luton can stop City here. You can understand why the market has them trading so short! Obviously with odds of 1.12 in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value here. The market is expecting goals; Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.3 but most of the damage is expected from City because Both Teams To Score is 2.2. Luton have actually managed to score in 19 of their last 20 Premier League; including a home game against City. The 2.2 looks a bit of value here; happy to keep stakes a little low given City will very likely boss the game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciLut
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V WOLVES
3pm We finish the 3pm fixtures with Nottingham Forest hosting Wolves. This is a huge game in the relegation battle – obviously Luton are away to City so this is a chance for Forest to put some points between the sides. As things stand, Forest and Luton have the same amount of points but Forest have a better goal difference and they also have an appeal against their points deduction too – we could actually decide the relegation battle off the pitch this season! Although Luton have to play City this weekend, Forest also have a fixture left against City so it’s not like either side has an easier run-in. Forest still have to play Sheffield United and Burnley however, and we know how poor those sides have been this season. I have to say I was slightly surprised when I clicked into this market and saw the odds. Forest are quite clear favourites, and I wasn’t expecting to see them trading as short as 2.24 while Wolves are 3.5 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. I know Wolves have been over-performing this season, but the 2.24 definitely looks a little short.
There’s plenty of points between the sides given Wolves are sitting in mid-table, but looking at the stats there isn’t much between the sides. They are both performing the same at the back; Forest have an average xG conceded of 1.52 while for Wolves it’s 1.53. The main difference is going forward; Forest have an average xG conceded of just 0.98 while for Wolves it’s 1.18. Still a reasonably poor figure, but like I said they are over-performing in front of goal this season and that’s why they sit in mid-table. Forest are one of only three sides with an average xG created under 1.0, and I just can’t have them as short as 2.24 here. I know Wolves aren’t exactly the most reliable side, especially away from home, but I do expect a closer game than the odds suggest here and I’m very happy with the 2.24 lay. It’s my most confident bet of the 3pm games.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Nottingham Forest to beat Wolves at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NttWlv
BOURNEMOUTH V MANCHESTER UNITED
5.30pm We finish Saturday in the Premier League with a fascinating market! It’s also the most open market of the day – Bournemouth are the favourites at 2.48 with Manchester United 2.82 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Those odds would be very surprising to the casual football fans; less surprising to most Premier League fans, and not surprising at all to anyone who enjoys looking at the xG figures. Bournemouth might be in 12th and Manchester United in 6th with eight points between the sides, but Bournemouth have been playing the better football this season! There isn’t much between the sides, but the major difference has been at the back. United have been all over the place this season; their average xG conceded is a whopping 1.73 – that’s the third worst defensive figure in the Premier League which is shocking for a club as big as United. They are no where near a Top Four battle, and until they sort out their issues at the back they won’t be involved in Champions League football for a long time. As we have saw time and time again this season; when you are that bad at the back, no position is safe. They can lose from being one goal ahead in the 100th minute like the Chelsea game!
Bournemouth have also been reasonably poor at the back, but their average xG conceded is 1.54 and that’s lower than United’s. Both sides actually have the exact same attacking figure; their average xG created if 1.48. If I had to have a bet in the match odds market I would lean towards a Manchester United lay, however I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here because this game screams goals. Both sides have a lot of issues at the back; we were able to land a confident bet on Overs in the Chelsea game and this is another game that just screams goals. Neither side seem good enough to keep a clean sheet! Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.47 and I wouldn’t put anyone off that bet, I would have it trading sub 1.4 to be honest but I think we can aim higher here. Over 3.5 goals is 2.13 and that looks a cracking bet in what should be a very entertaining game to finish the day. Drama is never far away with this United side, you wouldn’t be surprised to see a 4-4!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 3.5 goals at 2.13 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouMnu
