THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games between CRYSTAL PALACE v LIVERPOOL, SOUTHAMPTON v MANCHESTER CITY, EVERTON v ARSENAL and NEWCASTLE v FULHAM with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

CRYSTAL PALACE V LIVERPOOL

12.30pm It’s the last Premier League Saturday before Christmas and we have an excellent day ahead with all football bets 0% commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! All football bets will also be 0% commission on Boxing Day which is fantastic news given the fantastic fixing list. Back to this week, and we kick off with Crystal Palace hosting Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp’s men went clear at the top of the Premier League table midweek with a 2-1 win over Spurs and they are in a fantastic position heading into the busy Christmas and New Year period. I felt a draw was a fair result against Spurs; and it will be interesting to see do Liverpool drop points or go further away from everyone over the next month like they did last season.

I must say Liverpool are a very tempting bet at 1.56. Indeed, it’s hard to find much better value when you look around at the goal markets. Crystal Palace are nowhere near this Liverpool side. They are reasonably solid at the back, but they haven’t been creating enough chances to live with a side like Liverpool. That win over Spurs would have been a massive boost them and I can see them really kicking on and blowing teams away over the Christmas period. The Liverpool win a confident bet to start the weekend and it’s a must for any BETDAQ Multiple today.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Liverpool to beat Crystal Palace at 1.56 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQcrlliv

MATCH STATS

  • Since their return to the Premier League in 2013, Crystal Palace haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their 14 league games against Liverpool (W4 D1 L9), with the Eagles losing each of their last six in a row against the Reds.
  • Liverpool have won each of their last five Premier League away games against Crystal Palace – only against Norwich (7, ongoing) and Aston Villa (6, 2011-2019) have they won more consecutively on the road in the competition.
  • Liverpool have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League away games in London (W8 D4), going down 1-2 at Arsenal last season. They’ve lost just four of their 27 league games in the capital under Jürgen Klopp, with each defeat coming against different sides (West Ham, Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal).
  • Liverpool have won their final league match before Christmas in three of their last four seasons (D1) since a 0-3 defeat against Watford in December 2015.
  • Crystal Palace have kept just one clean sheet in their last 21 Premier League matches, a 1-0 win over Southampton in their first game of 2020-21. Their current 12-game run without a shutout is their worst since a 14-game run between May and November 2017.
  • Liverpool are winless in their last five away league games (D4 L1), drawing each of their last four in a row. They last went six matches without a league win on the road in January 2011, while the Reds last drew five such games in succession back in December 1991 under Graeme Souness.
  • Crystal Palace boss Roy Hodgson has lost six Premier League matches against Liverpool since leaving the club – the only managers to lose more games against a club they have previously managed are Mark Hughes vs Man City (10) and Graeme Souness vs Liverpool (7).
  • Liverpool’s Sadio Mané has scored in each of his last six Premier League games against Crystal Palace – only three players have ever scored in more consecutive appearances against a specific opponent in the competition; Robin van Persie (8 vs Stoke), Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (7 vs West Ham) and Romelu Lukaku (7 vs West Ham).
  • After netting 89% of his Premier League goals away from home last season (8/9), all three of Roberto Firmino’s league goals this season have come in home games.
  • In 21 Premier League appearances in December, Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored 17 goals and assisted a further nine, averaging a goal or assist every 66 minutes. It is his best goal involvement ratio in any month in which he has played more than one game.

SOUTHAMPTON V MANCHESTER CITY

3pm Sometimes I feel like the Saturday 3pm fixture gets lost with the amount of sport on, and it’s a shame this week it’s a fixture like this because this is a cracker. Southampton start the weekend flying high in third position and have been excellent this season, while Man City come into the game in the unusual position of mid-table. It’s common knowledge now that City haven’t been at their best this season, but the signs have been there looking at their xG numbers for a while now. We all know about their problems at the back, but that hasn’t been the issues – they simply aren’t creating the same volume of chances that they used to.

City are trading at 1.52 and to me that looks exceptionally short. Especially when you consider you can get a marginally bigger price for Liverpool to beat Crystal Palace earlier in the day – I would much rather that bet. City were unlucky not to beat West Brom midweek but it’s been a same old story for them all season; too many points dropped in games they should be winning. Southampton are a very solid side and they have been playing good football all season – it’s hard to see the game reflecting the odds with Southampton making the game a lot closer than 1.52 suggests. For me it has to be a City lay at the odds.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Manchester City to beat Southampton at 1.52 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQsoumnc

MATCH STATS

  • Southampton are looking to win back-to-back Premier League games against Man City for the first time since May 2003 (a run of three), after winning this exact fixture 1-0 in July last season.
  • Manchester City’s 0-1 defeat in this exact fixture last season ended a run of six straight Premier League victories against Southampton, across which they had netted 17 goals.
  • Southampton’s 1-0 win against Man City in July ended a run of 16 consecutive Premier League games in which they’d conceded to the Citizens. They last recorded consecutive clean sheets against them between March 2001 and May 2003 (3 games).
  • Southampton have won their final league match before Christmas in each of their last two seasons – both away wins against Huddersfield Town and Aston Villa.
  • When their final league match before Christmas has fallen away from home, Manchester City have registered just two wins in their last 16 attempts (D5 L9), with this their first on the road since a 1-2 defeat to Arsenal in December 2015.
  • Manchester City have won their last 11 away Premier League matches kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday and haven’t lost an away Saturday 3pm game since September 2013, when they were beaten 3-2 by Aston Villa.
  • Southampton have scored at least twice in each of their last seven Premier League home games, scoring 16 goals in total in that run. Saints’ previous 16 league goals at St Mary’s had come over a period of 16 games.
  • Manchester City have drawn their last two Premier League games. They’ve not gone three without a win in the competition since a run of four in March/April 2017, the first three of which were all draws.
  • Man City’s Sergio Agüero has been involved in 10 goals in his last 10 Premier League games against Southampton, scoring six and assisting four.
  • Raheem Sterling has been involved in 148 goals in all competitions for Manchester City since Pep Guardiola joined the club and is just two goals/assists away from becoming the first player to reach 150 goal involvements for the club under the Spaniard.

EVERTON V ARSENAL

5.30pm Let’s face it; Arsenal are a very poor side but most Premier League fans will be glued to their TV’s to watch this game. It’s another game that you look at and just don’t fancy Arsenal – and who knows just how bad things could get for them. They start the weekend in the bottom six and if they don’t start picking up points the teams around them are going to create a gap. There was a lot of buzz around Arsenal at the start of the season, but as I have been saying if you looked their xG figures the signs were there that they were going to have trouble eventually. They were marginally lucky to even draw midweek with Southampton and they just look like a side very short on confidence now.

Everton went through a pretty poor spell but they bounced back with a 1-0 win over Chelsea that came from nowhere given the excellent football Chelsea were playing. They then followed that up in style with a 2-0 win away to Leicester, and this is a golden chance to beat Arsenal. The 2.42 on Everton is worth a small bet for me looking at the way Arsenal are playing. They just look short on confidence and Arteta doesn’t know his best XI either. It will be fascinating to see what happens over Christmas if Arsenal don’t start winning – how bad will the board let results get before doing something? Fascinating viewing!

The Striker Says:
One point win Everton to beat Arsenal at 2.42 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQevearl

MATCH STATS

  • Everton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last two home Premier League games against Arsenal (W1 D1), last keeping three in a row at home to the Gunners between November 1966 and April 1969.
  • Arsenal have won more Premier League games (34) and scored more Premier League goals (110) against Everton than they have versus any other opponent in the competition. Indeed, their 110 goals against the Toffees is more than any side has netted against another in Premier League history.
  • Everton haven’t won their final league match before Christmas in any of their last six seasons (D2 L4) since a 2-1 win against Swansea City in December 2013.
  • Since beating Fulham 3-0 on the opening day, Arsenal have scored just twice in their last five away league games (W1 D1 L3), failing to find the net in their last two. The Gunners last went three away league games without a goal in September 2017.
  • Arsenal have lost eight of their last 12 Premier League matches kicking off at 5.30pm (W3 D1), although one of their wins in that time was a 5-1 victory over Everton in February 2018.
  • Arsenal have won just 14 points from 13 Premier League games this season, their lowest tally at this stage of a top-flight campaign since 1974-75 (9 pts – assuming 3pts/win). Indeed, Arsenal have picked up just one win in their last nine Premier League games (W1 D2 L6).
  • Since Mikel Arteta took charge of his first Arsenal game in December 2019, the Gunners have won more matches in cup competitions (14 of 17) than they have in the Premier League (13 of 33).
  • Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti has lost his last three matches against Arsenal in all competitions – in his managerial career, he has only lost four times in a row against an opponent once previously, doing so against Inter Milan between 2009 and 2018.
  • Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored four goals in his four Premier League starts against Everton, though all of these goals have come at the Emirates.
  • Everton’s Richarlison is looking to score in consecutive Premier League appearances for the first time since February 2020, when the second game in this run came against Arsenal.

NEWCASTLE V FULHAM

8pm We finish the day with the most open market of the day as Newcastle host Fulham. Newcastle are slightly out of the danger zone as they have a game in hand and are eight points ahead of Fulham but Fulham are right in the mix to go down. If Newcastle won here and Arsenal lost earlier, it would create a bit of distance between the rest and the bottom six. Fulham have had a good run of results lately, even drawing 1-1 with Liverpool recently which they deserved too looking at xG. Newcastle lost heavily to Leeds midweek, but as I said beforehand Newcastle really suited Leeds style of play so that loss was always coming.

This is an interesting fixture and it’s not a surprise that we have such an open market. Newcastle have had a lot of goals in their games but Fulham have been keeping things tight. That puts me off the goal markets as the odds look pretty fair with under 2.5 goals trading around 1.8 – I feel that looks correct. I like a small bet on the draw here at 3.35 in what should be a very close game. I quite fancy a 1-1 given the style of play for both sides.

The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.35 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQnewful

MATCH STATS

  • Newcastle are unbeaten in their last five Premier League home games against Fulham (W3 D2), with the last such fixture ending 0-0 in December 2018.
  • Fulham have failed to score in four of their last five Premier League meetings with Newcastle, as many as they had in their first 21 games against them in the competition.
  • Newcastle United have won their final league match before Christmas in 10 of their last 15 seasons (D3 L2) and are unbeaten in their last five (W3 D2) since a 0-1 defeat to Sunderland in December 2014.
  • Newcastle are without a clean sheet in their last 10 Premier League home games, since beating Sheffield United 3-0 back in June. However, the Magpies have won three of their last five at St James’ Park (L2).
  • Newcastle are the first team to play all three promoted sides in three consecutive Premier League games since Manchester United in September 2014, who drew 0-0 with Burnley, beat QPR 4-0 and lost 3-5 against Leicester City under Louis van Gaal.
  • Fulham are looking to keep back-to-back Premier League clean sheets for the first time since April 2019 (three in a row); the Cottagers have only two clean sheets in their last 43 away matches in the top-flight, though one of those was at Newcastle in December 2018.
  • In their last match against Leeds, Newcastle conceded five goals in a top-flight league match against a newly promoted side for the first time since August 1958 against Blackburn. The Magpies have shipped 21 goals in their opening 12 league games, their most since conceding 22 in 2015/16, when they went on to be relegated.
  • Fulham are the only side yet to concede from outside the box in the Premier League this season. In their last campaign in the competition, the Cottagers were one of five sides to concede at least 10 goals from distance.
  • This is Newcastle boss Steve Bruce’s first match against Fulham since losing 0-1 in the 2018 Championship play-off final with Aston Villa – he has, however, won his last four home league matches against the Cottagers.
  • Newcastle’s Callum Wilson registered his 10th goal involvement – an assist for Jeff Hendrick – in his 11th Premier League appearance for the club against Leeds (7 goals, 3 assists), the quickest English player to reach double figures for goals/assists in the Premier League for the Magpies since Alan Shearer in October 1996 (10th match).

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