PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s eight games starting with FULHAM v MAN CITY at 12.30pm – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FULHAM V MANCHESTER CITY
12.30pm It’s a bumper Premier League Saturday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We have eight fixtures to go through in a hectic day that should have plenty of drama. We kick off the action with a big game in the title race as Fulham host Manchester City. For the first time in weeks, Manchester City get a chance to play before Arsenal who play Manchester United on Sunday. A win here would see City top the table for the first time in a while, and they will be fully expected to bag the three points. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.26 with Fulham 13.5 and the draw is 7.2 at the time of writing. That 1.26 is the shortest price of this Premier League matchday, and I have to say I was a little surprised to see City trading that short when I clicked into the market! I was expecting to see them in the 1.3’s – this is very much a need to win price in my opinion, and while it’s exceptionally hard to see past a win for Pep Guardiola’s men I wouldn’t be rushing to include them at 1.26 in your weekend Acca. I know Fulham have been finishing the season poorly, but they have been much better at home this season.
It’s been like we’ve had two different Fulham sides this season – the one who plays at home and the one who plays away! They have actually picked up a few recent results away from home, but only Brentford, Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Luton Town and Sheffield United have less points away from home. At home, they have a decent average xG created of 1.5 and they are also creating more than they are conceding. Decent form, although not at a level that suggests they can handle City. With that being said, I still feel the 1.26 is exceptionally short here. With City so short, we’re forced to look around the side markets for some value here, and the bet that catches my eye is Both Teams To Score at 1.82. The market is expecting City to do all the work in the goals market here with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.38. This is definitely a game for small stakes, but Fulham have created enough at home to suggest that they can score at some stage.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.38 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FlmMci
BOURNEMOUTH V BRENTFORD
3pm We have a hectic afternoon with six fixtures kicking off at 3pm! We only get more fixtures on the Final day when all ten games kick off together, other than that eight fixtures is the biggest the Premier League tend to go. We start with Bournemouth hosting Brentford, and this is an interesting market. Bournemouth come in as the favourites at 2.06 with Brentford 3.65 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. We have two sides here who will have very different feelings towards their seasons – Bournemouth will be absolutely delighted and they have a decent chance of finishing in the top half which will be a great result for them. Brentford finished in the top half last season, and they might have gone into this season with hopes of European football – something like the Europa Conference League – and they have been hanging around the relegation battle all season. In fairness to them, they have got results at the business end of the season when it looked like they might get dragged into big danger. They come into this game off the back of only one loss in seven games.
Bournemouth have been creating a lot more this season – they have been playing a very open game and although they’ve conceded a lot of chances too, things have worked out for them. It’s not a surprise to see Bournemouth as the favourites – they have a better average xG than Brentford, have home advantage and in general have been a better side than Brentford. However, both sides have been very poor at the back this season. Not only do they reasonably high average xG conceded figures, they are both conceding more goals than they should be looking at that figure. Sloppy at the back is probably the best way to describe them, and I feel we’re going to get a lot of mistakes here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.53 and that looks cracking value in what should be an open game – it looks one of the best bets of the day in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouBrt
EVERTON V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm A couple of weeks ago, you could have said this is a must win game for Everton looking at their situation. However, they moved away from the relegation battle in style recently and although that’s not a surprise considering they were only there because of their points deduction, it’s definitely welcome. Although it’s not a must win game anymore, it’s a game that they should win. Sheffield United have been woeful this season – not only have they been the worst performing side in the Premier League, their overall performance figure is the worst from any side in Europe’s elite leagues this season. Everton come into the game as the heavy odds on favourites at 1.45 with Sheffield United at 7.8 and the draw is 5.3 at the time of writing. We haven’t had any signs of things changing at Sheffield United recently – obviously they are confirmed as going back down to the Championship and sometimes that can free up sides. A new manager, change in tactics, or removal of pressure – nothing has improved the Sheffield United performances!
They come into this game off the back of five straight losses, it’s been a winless run of 12 games now, and there aren’t many positive things to say about Sheffield United at the moment. It seems like they have switched off to be honest – they’ve conceded 16 goals in their last four games now. While Everton wouldn’t be a side that you’d want to lump on at short odds, it’s hard to get away from the 1.45 here. Sheffield United just don’t look up to Premier League standard. The only thing worth mentioning is that Sheffield United have attacked a lot more in recent weeks – they have managed to score in eight of their last nine games which is an interesting stats. Both Teams To Score is trading 1.78 which is an appealing price, however I’m happy to keep things simple here. Sheffield United are there for the taking and the 1.45 on Everton is worth a confident bet. They are definitely a good option to be included in any weekend Acca too.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Everton to beat Sheffield United at 1.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveShe
NEWCASTLE V BRIGHTON
3pm We have another odds on favourite next as Newcastle host Brighton, and another interesting market with Brighton breaking their poor run last weekend with a win against Aston Villa. Newcastle are trading 1.58 with Brighton 5.6 and the draw is 5.0 at the time of writing. Newcastle definitely had a big wobble this season, mainly due to their away form, but they are finishing the season well and now there’s a chance that they could actually catch Spurs for fifth. Obviously things have to go their way because they start the weekend four points behind Spurs, although Spurs have to play Manchester City their other two fixtures are against Burnley and Sheffield United so Newcastle have a very slim chance of catching them with that fixture list. Brighton will be gutted with their season to be honest – after tasting European football they aren’t even in the top half of the table coming into this weekend. They managed to stop the rot with a win over Aston Villa last weekend – no mean feat considering how good Villa have been this season – and that stopped a run of six games without a win.
It did come at home though, and the winning goal was in the 87th minute so they didn’t have to hang on for long. It will be interesting to see how open this game is here; neither side has any reason to sit back really. Brighton have been very poor at the back this season – their average xG conceded of 1.31 is a very respectable figure but they have conceded a lot more than they should. Sloppy is the best word to describe them. An average goals conceded of 1.68 per game is why they are sitting in mid-table – considering they have the fifth highest average xG created, they should be competing for the European spots. This game absolutely screams goals in my opinion – Newcastle have been very poor this season too, and granted that most of their problems have been away from home they still have an average xG conceded if 1.52 this season. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.38 so the market is fully expecting goals here – I feel Both Teams To Score offers a lot of value at 1.49 however. That looks the wrong price in what should be an end-to-end game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.49 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NwcBri
TOTTENHAM V BURNLEY
3pm We have the shortest home price of the day next as Spurs host Burnley. Both sides come into this game in a terrible place – Spurs have thrown away a lot of work in the past few weeks with four straight losses. They were always going to have a difficult run-in but losses away to Newcastle and Chelsea have added to their woes as well as losing to Arsenal and Liverpool. That leaves Spurs starting this weekend seven points behind Aston Villa, and although they have a game in hand they realistically aren’t closing that gap – they still have to play Manchester City too! Last weekend was a terrible weekend for Burnley too; they lost to Newcastle and with Nottingham Forest beating Sheffield United too that was the final nail in the relegation coffin for Burnley. They start this weekend five points behind Nottingham Forest so anything bar a win here will see the news confirmed. It’s been a bitterly disappointing season for Burnley – after running away with the Championship last season they weren’t even in the relegation discussion for most Premier League fans this season. The reality is that they just haven’t been good enough.
Spurs come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.38 with Burnley 8.0 and the draw is 6.4 at the time of writing. Although Spurs have been all over the place in recent weeks, and you could see Ange Postecoglou getting more and more angry on the touchline too. However, they should get the job done here – I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.38 but it’s not a price I’d want to lay either. Burnley only have an average xG created of 1.13 this season and their average conceded is 1.7 – they are in the bottom five in every area; put them together and you obviously have massive problems. While Spurs have been very sloppy at the back, and maybe that’s something that will never change, they have the fourth best attacking figure with an average xG created of 1.76. I feel this game screams goals, and Over 2.5 goals is trading exceptionally short at 1.26 so the market is obviously expecting goals! I’m happy to go a step further because Over 3.5 goals looks cracking value at 1.61 in what should be a very entertaining game.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 3.5 goals at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TtmBur
WEST HAM V LUTON TOWN
3pm West Ham host Luton Town next, and this should be an interesting clash. You don’t need me to tell you that it’s a must win game for Luton – they start the weekend three points behind Nottingham Forest. That draw they picked up against Everton last Friday could prove very important – Forest were always likely to beat Sheffield United last weekend who have been so poor this season. Obviously we’re at the stage of the season when every game is massive, but you have to say that this could be a good weekend for Luton. They face a West Ham side who have been very poor at the back this season while Nottingham Forest meet Chelsea in the late game today. However, the market doesn’t agree with me here because Nottingham Forest are actually trading marginally shorter to win compared to Luton here! West Ham are the odds on favourites at 1.88 with Luton Town 3.95 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. It’s been a big week for West Ham with the news that David Moyes is leaving at the end of the season – after delivering the clubs first European success, it’s been a poor season.
Football is data driven these days, and while some football fans might not like that, it’s just the way the game has gone these days. While West Ham were massively over-performing and sitting in the top six at times, there were always some major red flags in their performance figures. Their average xG conceded is a whopping 1.82 and that’s the second worst defensive figure in the Premier League this season. Only Sheffield United have conceded more chances. Not only that, but the Hammers’ attacking figure is poor too – they have an average xG created of 1.17 and that are massively over-performing in this area as their actual goals scored works out at 1.6. That’s what has them so high in the table, when really their figures have them not far away from a relegation battle! It will be interesting to see what type of performance we get from West Ham here with the David Moyes news, and I know that Luton have been so poor this season, however I feel West Ham are worth a small lay here at 1.88. I just expect a closer game than those odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) West Ham to beat Luton Town at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesLut
WOLVES V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm We finish the bumper Premier League 3pm fixtures with Wolves hosting Crystal Palace. This is the most open market of the Premier League weekend. Crystal Palace come into the game as the favourites at 2.54 with Wolves 2.96 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. Crystal Palace come into this fixture on a high – they embarrassed Manchester United on Monday night with a 4-0 win and although United have been woeful at the back this season, Palace took full advantage. They were all the rage in the market beforehand and it was shrewd money! They are finishing the season strongly – that’s four wins from five unbeaten games now and they have been scoring goals too. Wolves are in danger of actually getting caught by Palace here in mid-table; they are three points ahead of them at the moment! In that 11th to 14th range I always look for sides that could be “on the beach” early as the say, and Wolves were one of the sides I thought this might be possible. They can’t achieve anything so they are going through the motions.
One win from their last eight games is a major red flag – that win came against Luton too with home advantage and in the other two games they got draws in – they came against Burnley and Nottingham Forest; two sides in the relegation battle. Both sides are right beside each other in the xG table – Crystal Palace have an average xG created of 1.15 and it’s 0.01 lower for Wolves. Palace are obviously heading in the right direction though; this is their best run of the season and they are full of confidence too. Wolves have conceded more chances than Palace as well this season, and while it isn’t a game that you want to go crazy with the stakes on, the 2.54 on Palace is hard to ignore. This game just falls at the perfect time for Palace in my opinion and it’s a good time to ride on that momentum. The reality is both sides have played average football this season, but Palace are on a high at the moment and they can claim three points.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Crystal Palace to beat Wolves at 2.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolCrl
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V CHELSEA
5.30pm We finish the Premier League Saturday with Nottingham Forest hosting Chelsea. As I touched on above, this is another massive game in the relegation battle – Forest fans will be glued to the Luton game earlier in the day, and the squad will know what is needed when they go out here. Although Chelsea should win on paper, we all know that they have been all over the places at times this season and they have had a number of issues. Despite all that though, it’s not a surprise to see them come into the game as the favourites at 2.04 with Nottingham Forest 3.75 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Forest recorded a huge win last weekend against Sheffield United – that was a game that they needed to win and they delivered too. As I said above, that gives them a three point advantage over Luton heading into today, and that’s a nice position to be in with only two games left – although things could change today! Forest have been battling very hard recently, but Chelsea have been finishing the season strongly. Obviously they have been the headlines for the wrong reasons – the 5-0 loss against Arsenal and then the fighting between themselves for a penalty etc, but they’ve only lost once in their last 12 games.
That’s not a stat that you want to hear if you’re a forest fan! Chelsea have finally started scoring goals for fun, mostly led by Cole Palmer. Their average xG created has kept up to 1.62 which is the sixth best attacking figure in the Premier League. Obviously Chelsea have leaked goals and they’ve been sloppy at the back, but if they can iron out those issues then they can compete for the European spots next season. They might still get a European spot this season too, especially given there will be extra spots if Manchester City beat Manchester United in the FA Cup Final, which is expected really. There’s definitely a little gulf in class between the sides in my opinion – I’m very happy to keep stakes reasonably small here because Chelsea haven’t been a side that you can trust this season, however I would have them odds on here. They come into the game in a good place, scoring goals and getting results. Forest have been poor at the back, and Chelsea can take advantage – they are worth backing at 2.04.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Chelsea to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotChl
