PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews NEWCASTLE v ARSENAL, LIVERPOOL v BRIGHTON and WOLVES v CRYSTAL PALACE all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NEWCASTLE V ARSENAL
12.30pm We have a cracking Premier League Saturday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have a fascinating weekend ahead, and the way the fixture list has fallen means we don’t have any exceptionally short favourites. Liverpool and Manchester City have been starting in the 1.1’s recently, but not this weekend. We kick off the day with Newcastle hosting Arsenal – we should have some big opinions on the Arsenal price here on either side of the book! They come into the game as the 2.02 favourites with Newcastle 3.9 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. Arsenal dropped more points last weekend, but a draw against Liverpool isn’t the worst result, even with home advantage. Once again Arsenal fans had a long list of reasons why they were “robbed” but that seems to be the case in every game when they drop points. The biggest change with Arsenal this season is they are conceding more chances. Their average xG conceded this season is 1.39 compared to 0.92 last season – which was the best defensive figure in the Premier League (just 0.01 better than Manchester City!). It’s only natural that they are going to get themselves in more tricky positions when they are conceding more chances.
They are actually getting away with things at the back a little too. Their actual goals conceded average is 1.11, so things could be even worse for Arsenal at the back! Another side getting away with things at the back is Newcastle – their average xG conceded is as high as 1.65 but they have actually conceded the same amount of goals as Arsenal have this season! Newcastle did manage to beat Spurs and grind out a 1-1 draw with Man City here, so while there are a lot of red flags in their performance figures, I wouldn’t exactly be rushing to back Arsenal here at 2.02 with the increased volume of chances they are giving away this season. I feel this game screams goals, and there’s two options – Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.88 and Both Teams To Score is 1.76. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest – we should have an entertaining and end-to-end game here, but sometimes we do get the odd boring 12.30pm kick off! I’m not going to get carried away with the stakes here, but I’m very happy with Both Teams To Score at 1.76.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NwcArl
LIVERPOOL V BRIGHTON
3pm We have a busy Saturday afternoon with five games kicking off at 3pm. We have a couple of massive games that could have a big impact on the relegation battle – Ipswich host Leicester and Southampton host Everton. Manchester City are trading around 1.6 away to Bournemouth too who have been playing well, but the most interesting game for me is Liverpool hosting Brighton. We might have the shortest price of the weekend here, but we should have a very exciting game. Liverpool come into the game as the red-hot favourites at 1.43 with Brighton 7.6 and the draw is 5.6 at the time of writing. There’s never really a dull moment when you’re watching these two sides – they both like to play an open and attacking game. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.45 – Overs has landed in the last five meetings between the sides and it is hard to see anything bar an open game with goals here. Liverpool have been very much improved at the back this season though – their average xG conceded is only 1.18 and as I said last week, if Arne Slot can make them solid at the back while keeping the attacking flare then Liverpool will challenge for the title.
Brighton are always an entertaining game to watch, it’s still early in the season and they’ve already been involved in two 2-2, a 4-2 and a 3-2. Obviously the 3-2 was their win from two goals down against Spurs when Ange Postecoglou stood in shock after the final whistle on the pitch. I can’t see Brighton sitting back here, that’s just not their style, but at the same time that should play into the hands of Liverpool. It’s funny how the fixture list throws out things during the season, but the sides clashed midweek in the Carabao Cup too – compared to some of the other games in the Last 16 they were actually one of the lower scoring games at half-time as Liverpool lead 1-0 – we’d already had six goals between Manchester United and Leicester by half-time in another game! I do feel this game screams goals, but Liverpool are only two ticks below the price of Overs, and I much prefer that position. The 1.43 is worth a confident bet on a home win in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Liverpool to beat Brighton at 1.43 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivBrg
WOLVES V CRYSTAL PALACE
5.30pm We finish Saturday in the Premier League with Wolves hosting Crystal Palace. This is a huge game for both sides as they come into this weekend sitting in the bottom four – indeed they were both in the relegation zone before Crystal Palace recorded their first win of the season last weekend at home to Spurs. That was badly needed – after finishing last season on such a high after Oliver Glasner the start of this season was a big bang back down to earth for Palace fans. Wolves fans are also having a tough time of things; they are still waiting on their first win of the Premier League season and their odds on relegation are coming in each passing week. You get the feeling that a win here for either side could easily kick start their season and see them beginning to move away from danger – on the other side of the coin, the loser is certainly under pressure in the relegation battle. You’d have to expect Crystal Palace to be good enough to not be involved too heavily in the relegation battle this season, but you’d also have to fear for Wolves in that regard.
The three sides that got promoted this season are still odds on to go back down, so these two won’t be hitting the panic button yet – however it feels like they are next in line, those recent wins for Leicester will definitely have them worried! As you would expect, we have a very open betting heat. Wolves are the favourites with home advantage at 2.66 with Crystal Palace 2.94 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing. As you’d expect with where they are both sitting in the table, both sides have their issues. Palace are struggling to convert their chances – their average xG created is 1.4 and they are converting less than half of those chances. They face the side who are conceding the most goals in the Premier League here though, so they will get chances! Wolves have an average xG conceded of 1.82 which is very high, and their actual average conceded is close to three! Those figures make for some grim reading to be honest, and I do feel that the 2.66 is too short on Wolves here – it’s not like they are creating a lot to counter being so poor at the back. From a value point of view, I’m happy with the Wolves lay.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Wolves to beat Crystal Palace at 2.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WlvCry
