PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews WOLVES v SOUTHAMPTON, BRIGHTON v MANCHESTER CITY and BRIGHTON v MANCHESTER CITY all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WOLVES V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm It’s another cracking Saturday from the Premier League with some massive games on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have no early kick off this week as we have an 8pm fixture instead – we have four games kicking off at 3pm but by far the most interesting game in my opinion is Wolves hosting Southampton. Everyone might have only played ten games coming into this weekend, but this is already a massive relegation battle. Wolves sit bottom of the table still waiting for their first win of the season whole Southampton are only one point ahead of them. Their already more than a win away from Crystal Palace in 17th, and Leicester’s recent wins weren’t good news for these two either. Obviously most Premier League fans would have been expecting Southampton to struggle – Wolves sitting at the bottom is a slight surprise though and while the relegation market currently believes they will get themselves out of trouble, they are already under massive pressure – we might see a big shift in the relegation market if Wolves don’t get the win here. It’s only marginal, but Wolves come into the game as the odds on favourites – all the pressure is on Wolves here to be honest.
Wolves are trading 1.98 with Southampton 3.95 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Sitting bottom without a win yet this season, I don’t think it’s too dramatic to call this a must win game for Wolves given they have home advantage. Southampton and Ipswich look short of Premier League standard so far this season, so on paper Wolves aren’t going to get many better opportunities for three points. Southampton have the second worst attacking figure in the Premier League while Wolves have the fourth worst – the bottom three are the three sides that came up from the Championship. The two sides have been all over the place at the back – again both in the bottom four on defensive figures with Wolves the third worst and Southampton the fourth. Both are conceding a high volume of chances – Wolves have an average xG conceded of 1.82 and Southampton 1.78. This should be a low quality game, but obviously the stakes are high which makes it interesting. I have to say from a value point of view the 1.98 is too short on Wolves in my opinion – I don’t want to go crazy with the stakes here, but both sides are clearly playing poor football and we should have an odds on favourite here, even with home advantage.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Wolves to beat Southampton at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolSth
BRIGHTON V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm We have a fascinating fixture next as Brighton host Manchester City! It’s been a hugely difficult week for Pep Guardiola and his Manchester City side – a loss last weekend away to Bournemouth meant Liverpool come into this weekend sitting top of the table, and then they followed that up with a 4-1 loss away to Sporting Lisbon. Most Manchester United fans really enjoyed watching that given Ruben Amorim is on his way there, but Old Trafford has ruined many good footballers and managers over the last few years. This is another tricky away fixture, and City are clearly not firing at the moment either so we have a fascinating game coming up. City still come into the game as the odds on favourites – the away win is trading 1.78 with Brighton 4.6 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. Brighton like to play an open and attacking game, that should suit City to be honest, and on paper we should have a very entertaining game. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.59 and Both Teams To Score is one tick bigger at 1.6 – to be honest I expected to see shorter odds than that when I clicked into the market.
What has been getting City in trouble this season is how sloppy they have been at the back. They have really struggled keeping clean sheets, and that’s putting them under pressure. A bit like Arsenal this season; they are dropping more points because they are conceding more chances. City still have an average xG conceded under 1.0 which is very impressive. They’ve only managed two clean sheets in the Premier League this season – one against Chelsea on the opening weekend and then the other was Southampton at home. Not exactly the best record, and Brighton do create a lot. With home advantage and how open I expect the game to be – I’d be surprised if Brighton couldn’t score at some stage. For me the biggest question here is do I go with Overs or BTTS given they are only one tick apart. Over 2.5 goals has landed a lot in Brighton games this season, and I really like the goals bet here – I feel Over 2.5 goals is worth a Five Star NAP.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BhaMci
LIVERPOOL V ASTON VILLA
8pm We have another cracker to finish Saturday in the Premier League as Liverpool host Aston Villa. I know we don’t get 8pm Saturday fixtures often, and maybe it is a pain for travelling fans, but I have to say it’s an ideal time for watching on the TV! Liverpool come into this weekend sitting top of the table, and depending on the City result above they could have a chance to extend their lead here. So far, Arne Slot has been living the dream as Liverpool manager – their one blip being a loss here against Nottingham Forest, which came from nowhere! It’s been hard to fault Liverpool this season to be honest; their attacking figure isn’t as good as it was under Klopp, but they are vastly improved at the back. Their average xG conceded is only 1.2 this season, which is the third best defensive figure in the Premier League – they have been over-performing in that area too however; so far sides are only converting half of those chances so perhaps we can expect to see more goals conceded in the figure but their attacking numbers are still impressive. It’ll be interesting to see how they approach this game, Villa are usually quite cagey away from home.
Liverpool come into the game as the favourites at 1.49 with Aston Villa 6.8 and the draw is 5.3 at the time of writing. Villa suffered their first Champions League defeat midweek away to Club Brugge – that was clearly disappointing given they managed to beat Bayern Munich a few weeks ago. They weren’t odds on to win, but on paper it’s a game that they should be winning – especially if they want to get into that top eight. Liverpool have no problems beating Bayer Leverkusen, they hammered them 4-0. Villa have been a little disappointing going forward this season – their average xG created is only 1.31 – they have been over-performing in front of goal with an actual goals scored average of 1.7. That chances created figure is a major worry though – and it’s hard to see past the Liverpool win here. Villa are just behind Liverpool in the xG conceded table, and you know Emery will set them up very well at the back here so we might see a quiet start, perhaps a 0-0 at half-time, but the market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.5. I’m not sure I agree with that, but I do feel the stand out bet is the Liverpool win at 1.49.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Liverpool to beat Aston Villa at 1.49 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LvpAst
