PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews LIVERPOOL v FULHAM and NOTTINGHAM FOREST v ASTON VILLA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LIVERPOOL V FULHAM
3pm We begin another weekend of Premier League football on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and we have a shorter than usual fixture list on Saturday after a busy midweek for sides in Europe. We have no 12.30pm kick off, so we start at 3pm with four fixtures. We have four odds on home favourites, but obviously it’s only marginal for Wolves at home to Ipswich. Arsenal are in action against Everton, but for me the highlight is Liverpool hosting Fulham. Liverpool come into the game as the red-hot favourites, but Fulham have been playing some decent football this season. Liverpool are trading 1.34 with Fulham 10.0 and the draw is 6.2 at the time of writing. Liverpool haven’t done much wrong this season, but they did drop points for the first time in a while last weekend with a 3-3 draw away to Newcastle – that was a dramatic game and if we even get half the drama we’re in for a thriller here. Fulham are sitting in mid-table, and that’s more-or-less been their performance level this season. Their average xG created is decent at 1.48 – obviously not at the level Liverpool are at but a solid mid-table figure, and they are creating more chances than they are conceding.
I know Liverpool have been exceptionally good this season – Arne Slot has seemingly solved their issues at the back. They’ve kept their attacking flare under Klopp, and improved at the back – there’s no wonder they are sitting at the top of the table, and the top of the Champions League too. With that being said, I still feel the 1.34 is a little short on Liverpool – I feel Fulham will make the game closer than those odds suggest, even if they still might not get a result. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market, and I wouldn’t be keen including Liverpool in a weekend Acca at those odds. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.5, and while it’s expecting Liverpool to do most of the work, Both Teams To Score is still odds on at 1.85. I’m happy to keep stakes small here, but in my opinion Fulham have been creating enough this season to suggest they can score at some stage, and I’m happy with BTTS at 1.85.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LvpFul
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V ASTON VILLA
5.30pm We finish Saturday with Nottingham Forest hosting Aston Villa, and we have a very interesting market here. It’s the most open betting heat of the weekend in the Premier League, and I’m sure we might have a lot of chopping and changing favourites given the sides are so close together – there’s only four ticks between the sides at the moment. Nottingham Forest are marginal favourites at 2.74 with Aston Villa 2.78 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. Villa had a superb win midweek in the Champions League beating RB Leipzig 3-2 and that’s put them in a brilliant position – it looks like they could easily finish in the top eight which would be a brilliant result. They haven’t been playing very impressive football in the Premier League this season, but to their credit they have been grinding out a lot of results. Their average xG created is only 1.38 which is in the bottom half of the table, but they are bang in the mix for the European spots again at the moment. So are Nottingham Forest, and both clubs have a very similar profile coming into this game – they have the exact same record too!
Nottingham Forest have been creating marginally more chances – their average xG created is 1.44 compared to Aston Villa at 1.38. Villa have definitely been better at the back – their average xG conceded is 1.25 compared to Nottingham Forest 1.46. Villa have been sloppy at the back though, while Forest have been over-performing. I would say Villa have been marginally playing the better football, but Forest having home advantage should bring the sides closer together. You have to give both sides credit for the amount of results they have been able to grind out so far this season, and I can fully understand why we have such an open market. It’s hard to have a strong opinion on the goals market here because both sides have either over or under performed in that department. I don’t see a better value bet here than the draw at 3.55 – this game screams a very close game without much between the sides, and I’d have the draw a little shorter with each side a little bigger in the market.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NfoAst
