PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews NOTTINGHAM FOREST v BRIGHTON, BOURNEMOUTH v LIVERPOOL and WOLVES v ASTON VILLA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V BRIGHTON
12.30pm Another month begins on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and we have big Premier League Saturday ahead! We kick off the weekend with the most open market of the matchday as Nottingham Forest host Brighton – it’s been a dream season so far for Nottingham Forest, but they had their first setback for a while last weekend when getting hammered 5-0 by Bournemouth. They stayed in third spot, and it’ll be interesting to see how they bounce back here – everyone is waiting for them to fall out of the Top Four as the season goes on – it is interesting to see how long they can hold on for! Nottingham Forest come into the game as the favourites at 2.56 with Brighton 2.98 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. While Forest broke a run of eight games without a loss last weekend, Brighton have recently broke a run of eight games without a win. Brighton have had a pretty disappointing season – after getting back-to-back wins against Ipswich and Manchester United to break that poor run, they lost 1-0 at home against Everton last weekend. I know Everton have a new manager with David Moyes back, but that’s still a poor result.
There isn’t much between the sides on attacking figures. Brighton have an average xG created of 1.48 with Forest 0.07 behind them on 1.41. Both figures are mid-table level. Forest have been massively over-performing at the back this season – their average xG conceded is 1.56 which is a mid-to-low table figure but their actual goals conceded figure is only 1.17. So far they have been getting away with sides not taking their chances, and that’s why they are so high in the table. Brighton have been the opposite – they have the fourth best defensive figure but they have been sloppy at the back. I know you have to give Forest massive credit for all the results they have managed to grind out this season, but it is hard to make a massive case to back them as favourites when they aren’t playing exceptional football. Brighton have fluffed their lines a lot this season; they always tend to play well but fall short on results. I feel on balance here the draw is too big at 3.55 in a game where there really isn’t much between the sides.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NfoBri
BOURNEMOUTH V LIVERPOOL
3pm We have a busy afternoon with four fixtures kicking off at 3pm, and in my opinion Bournemouth hosting Liverpool is the pick of them. These two sides are having excellent seasons with Bournemouth in with a shout of the European spots and Liverpool having one hand on the title already. What a start for Arne Slot this season has been – they bring a six point lead into this weekend with a game in hand too. Whatever about one hand on the title, I would say that they have two – I just cannot see them being caught by Arsenal this season. This should be an entertaining game because Bournemouth don’t sit back, and they have been very entertaining to watch this season too. Liverpool come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.71 with Bournemouth 5.0 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. Bournemouth have been exceptionally impressive going forward this season – their average xG created at 1.71 is the fourth best attacking figure in the Premier League. They are over-performing at the back; their average xG conceded is 1.52 but their actual goals conceded average is only 1.13! That’s quite a difference – in terms of entertainment and how open games have been, Bournemouth have been the best to watch this season for open end-to-end games.
That average xG conceded figure of 1.52 is a very high figure when you face a side like Liverpool. Not only have Liverpool been exceptional going forward under Arne Slot, he seems to have fixed their issues at the back. With Manchester City conceding more chances this season, Liverpool now have the second best defensive figure in the Premier League. I know sides haven’t been taking their chances against Bournemouth, but they have certainly been conceding chances – this game screams goals and I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as big as 1.53 when I clicked into the market. I felt we’d definitely see that trading sub 1.5 – maybe even closer to 1.4. Obviously another option is the Liverpool win given how good they have been this season; the 1.71 is a very tempting bet and I couldn’t put anyone off that bet to be honest, but I do feel we’re getting a lot of value on the Overs here – at 1.53 I’m happy with a Five Star NAP!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BthLiv
WOLVES V ASTON VILLA
5.30pm We finish Saturday in the Premier League with another interesting market as Wolves host Aston Villa. You get the feeling that we could see plenty of action in the relegation race this week with Everton and Leicester meeting as well as Wolves in action here. Back-to-back wins for Everton with David Moyes back has saw them move away from danger for the time being – they come into this weekend seven points ahead of Wolves who sit inside the relegation zone. Those wins have created a bottom four at the moment – from a Wolves point of view that win for Leicester from 1-0 down away to Spurs must have been painful to watch, and now they are under immense pressure. If Everton beat Leicester earlier in the day, it’s good for Wolves but it definitely creates a bottom four – the bottom five actually have the five worst attacking figures, so no one complain. Wolves had their “new manager bounce” earlier in the season, but four losses in a row means a win over Manchester United and a draw against Spurs is long forgotten. It’ll be interesting to see how they perform here – we break for the FA Cup next weekend, and then Wolves face Liverpool so they have a tough fixture list.
Aston Villa recorded a big 4-2 win over Celtic midweek in the Champions League which moved them into the top eight and that is the golden ticket in the Champions League this season. They have a decent chance of getting to the Quarter-Finals, and then it gets tough! Aston Villa come into this game as the favourites at 2.18 with Wolves 3.6 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. Villa have done remarkably well in the Champions League this season, but they have been a little lacklustre in the Premier League. Their average xG created is only 1.33 which is the sixth worst attacking figure – only the bottom five have created less. Obviously they deserve a lot of credit for grinding out as many results as they have done, and they are tough to beat, but you can see why they sit in mid-table even allowing for the likes of Manchester United and Spurs not being involved at all in the race for European spots this season. While Villa have struggled to create good quality chances, Wolves will likely gift them some chances here – Wolves have been very poor at the back and they have been very poor in general really. For that reason, I’m happy to have a small position on Villa at 2.18 to get the job done here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Aston Villa to beat Wolves at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WlvAvl
