PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews EVERTON v ARSENAL, CRYSTAL PALACE v BRIGHTON and ASTON VILLA v NOTTINGHAM FOREST with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EVERTON V ARSENAL
12.30pm It’s another excellent Premier League Saturday on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We had a hectic week with a full midweek fixture list as it was FA Cup Quarter-Final weekend last weekend, and the fixtures come thick and fast now. We kick off the day with Everton hosting Arsenal. Everton lost the Merseyside Derby 1-0 midweek, most of the debate was around the “no red card” VAR decision! While Arsenal ran out 2-1 winners over Fulham – there are a few pockets of Arsenal fans who still believe that the title race is still on, but they just aren’t closing a twelve point gap on Liverpool. This is an interesting fixture because Everton have been much improved under David Moyes and with home advantage, it’ll be interesting to see can they get a result. Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites, but there are plenty of willing layers. Arsenal are trading 1.8 with Everton 6.0 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. That loss for Everton in the Merseyside Derby was their first loss in ten Premier League games, and you can easily forgive anyone losing 1-0 away to the best side in the league this season too.
Everton’s stats aren’t too impressive, but obviously they were in a bad place when Moyes took over. They seem to have got their spirit and backbone back; Moyes has actually done a wonderful job since the Manchester United failure – it seems clear now that job was too big for him, but he is ideal for clubs like West Ham and Everton. You wouldn’t be surprised if he got Everton back in the mix for a Europa Conference League spot in the coming seasons. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here because the 1.8 on Arsenal doesn’t make too much appeal – they’ve been exceptionally solid at the back since the start of the season but they clearly haven’t been creating the same volume of chances as they did last season. Arteta has been criticised for going into his shell this season; the under-lining figures do support that. I’m going to keep stakes small here, but Under 2.5 goals looks a nice position at 1.69 in what could be a very cagey game.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EvrArl
CRYSTAL PALACE V BRIGHTON
3pm We have three fixtures kicking off at 3pm, and Crystal Palace hosting Brighton looks the most interesting in my opinion. We have a very open betting heat here; Crystal Palace come into the game as the favourites at 2.5 with Brighton 3.0 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. Brighton had a massive setback midweek when losing 3-0 to Aston Villa; that was a hammering with home advantage. That saw Villa jump over them in the table, and now while still in the mix, Brighton are on the backfoot in the race for European spots. From a Brighton point of view, it’s been the same problem all season – they’ve been far too sloppy at the back. It’ll be interesting to see if Crystal Palace can take advantage – they have been impressive since a very slow start. They’ve only lost three times in their last 21 Premier League games. It was very disappointing to see them only draw 1-1 with Southampton midweek though, especially given how poor Southampton have been this season. Palace had to wait until the 92nd minute for the equaliser too – they dominated possession but didn’t create much; their xG figure was just 1.22.
When the sides met earlier in the season, Palace ran out 3-1 winners in an entertaining game. Brighton actually finished the game with the higher xG figure – classic Brighton being sloppy at the back. I would lean towards Palace in the match odds market here, but I’m happy to look elsewhere. This game screams goals and chances at both ends of the pitch. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.83 and Both Teams To Score is 1.68. Palace are conceding their fair share of chances this season too; their average xG conceded is actually higher than Brighton, it’s just Brighton have been too sloppy at the back. I have to say I was very surprised to see Overs trading as big as 1.83 when I clicked into the market here – I feel these sides will gel together very well for an entertaining game. In my opinion, we’re getting so much value at 1.83 that Overs is worth a Five Star NAP!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CrlBha
ASTON VILLA V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
5.30pm We finish Saturday with another very competitive looking game as Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest. As I have said for a number of weeks now, everyone is expecting Nottingham Forest to slip up and fall out of the Top Four, but they just keep grinding out wins. Another 1-0 win midweek over Manchester United will surely have the squad believing they can hang on now for a famous result. Champions League football would be an absolutely incredible achievement – plus they have an FA Cup Semi-Final to look forward to with a day out in Wembley. It’s been a dream season for the fans anyway! This is yet another tough challenge for them – Villa were impressive midweek and Rashford is seemingly finding form again since moving away from Manchester United. Forest have built up a very nice cushion in the Top Four race now as the season draws to a close – you could even say that it would be a surprise at this stage if they fell out of the Top Four, which no one would have said only a few weeks ago. They can obviously a afford a setback now; but even a draw here would be a nice result for Forest.
Aston Villa come into the game as the favourites at 2.04 with Nottingham Forest 4.0 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. I have to say it’s been hard to judge Forest games recently – it’s clear that they are massively over-performing this season but you just can’t knock the momentum and confidence they’ve built up. They’ve been massively getting away with things at the back; their average xG conceded is as high as 1.65 which is in the bottom six defensive figures this season. Their actual goals conceded average is only 1.17 though, and they’ve also been over-performing in front of goal too. On paper, Villa have played the better football this season but Forest have a lot more points! Just purely from a stats point of view, the 2.04 on Villa is a tempting bet but you have to respect Forest getting so many results this season. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market, and the bet I like is Both Teams To Score at 1.73 in what should be an open game. Villa looked in great form in front of goal midweek, and Forest have found a way to get results even playing badly so we should see action at both ends of the pitch here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstNfo
