THE STRIKER: previews the Premier League games on Saturday starting with WOLVES v WEST BROM at 12.30pm. All games previewed with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

WOLVES V WEST BROM

12.30pm Yet another fascinating Saturday ahead in the Premier League! The fixture just keep coming after another busy midweek schedule, and we have another midweek schedule after this weekend too. With so many games at the moment, it’s really make or break for sides at the top and bottom to gain (or lose) ground. All football bets are 0% commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today too, so hopefully we can find some good value winners. We start the day with Wolves hosting West Brom as the home side slipped further down the table midweek after a loss to Everton. We landed a nice lay on Wolves as they just haven’t been themselves this season. This game is interesting from a betting point of view however as West Brom are a very poor side.

I think it’s fair to say that Big Sam hasn’t changed much as West Brom now – he’s had a few games in charge and we haven’t seen a “new manager bounce” that we sometimes get. They did well to draw with Man City and Liverpool recently but it’s hard to see where those results came from looking at the 5-0 loss to Leeds and 4-0 to Arsenal. Wolves probably get the job done, but they have been poor this season and I don’t fancy backing them at 1.66. They’ve slipped down to 14th and I think this will be a cagey game. I’m going to take a chance on under 1.5 goals at nice odds for a small bet to start the weekend.

The Striker Says:
One point win Under 1.5 goals at 3.1 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwolwes

MATCH STATS

  • Wolves and West Brom haven’t met in the Premier League since a 5-1 win for the Baggies at Molineux in February 2012, their biggest away league win against Wolves since 1962.
  • West Brom haven’t won consecutive away league matches against Wolves since a run of three between 1929 and 1931, though this is their first Molineux visit since 2012.
  • Wolves have won eight of their last 10 Premier League games against promoted sides (D1 L1), with their only defeat in that time coming at Sheffield United last season. At home, they’re unbeaten in eight such games (W5 D3) since a 0-3 loss to QPR in September 2011.
  • Wolves have lost eight of their 18 Premier League games this season (W6 D4), only one fewer than they lost in the entirety of last season (W15 D14 L9). Wolves’ eighth defeat in 2019/20 wasn’t until their 34th game of the season.
  • West Brom have conceded 39 goals in the Premier League this season, more than any other side. However, despite being winless away from home so far, just 38% of those goals conceded have come on the road (15/39).
  • After netting five goals in their first three league games this season, West Brom have netted just six in their last 14, and never more than once in a match in that time.
  • Wolves have won each of their last six home Premier League games against teams starting the day in the relegation zone without conceding a single goal, since losing 2-0 to Huddersfield Town in November 2018.
  • Wolves’ Pedro Neto created four chances in their 2-1 defeat to Everton – the Portuguese forward has created the most chances in the Premier League for Wolves this season (32) and has the most league-wide of any player younger than 21.
  • West Brom manager Sam Allardyce has faced Wolves more often without losing than any other side in the Premier League (P5 W3 D2), with this his first meeting against them since a 3-0 win in December 2010 with Blackburn.
  • Rúben Neves has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances for Wolves (two goals), scoring as many as in his previous 57 in the competition. Only four Portuguese players have scored in three consecutive Premier League appearances – Cristiano Ronaldo (seven times), Luís Boa Morte, Raul Meireles and Bruno Fernandes (three times).

LEEDS V BRIGHTON

3pm Fulham managed to close the gap on Brighton to two points midweek with a draw against Spurs, while Brighton were beaten by Man City. Fulham have two games in hand over Brighton, and they need to start getting results otherwise they’re going to slip into the bottom three. Even West Brom would be within three points if they won their game in hand. I think this match is made for an impressive Leeds win. Leeds have conceded a lot of goals this season, but that is always going to happen when you play such an open game. Brighton concede a host of chances looking at their xG figures, and Leeds will absolutely love going forward against this Brighton side.

I can see a very similar game to the Leeds games against Newcastle and West Brom, where Leeds scored five on both occasions. Personally I’d have Leeds odds on as Brighton have been poor this season. The 2.24 on Leeds appeals as the best bet of the day for me. Even in the 1-0 loss to Man City midweek, Brighton conceded an xG of 2.41 and they don’t create enough to out-score this Leeds side, who granted are likely to give away some chances along the way. Leeds have been in the headlines because of the 3-0 loss to Crawley in the FA Cup but they made a host of chances, and they didn’t play as badly as the 3-0 loss to Spurs suggests. I’m a big fan of the 2.24.

The Striker Says:
Four points win Leeds to beat Brighton at 2.24 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleebri

MATCH STATS

  • Leeds United have lost seven of their last nine league matches against Brighton (W2), though the Whites won 2-0 the last time the sides met in March 2017 courtesy of a Chris Wood brace.
  • This is the first top-flight meeting between Leeds and Brighton since May 1982, a 2-1 victory for Leeds at Elland Road. Leeds have never lost at home against Brighton in the top-flight (P3 W2 D1).
  • Leeds have conceded 33 goals in their 17 Premier League games this season – the Whites had only conceded 35 in their 46 Championship games last term.
  • Leeds are looking to win three consecutive home games in the Premier League for the first time since a run of five between April-August 2001 under David O’Leary.
  • Brighton are winless in their last nine Premier League games (D5 L4), the longest current run in this season’s competition.
  • Leeds United have lost their first two matches in 2021 in all competitions, 3-0 defeats to both Spurs and Crawley, last losing their first three matches in a year back in 2014 under Brian McDermott, when they lost their first four.
  • Brighton are averaging 12.3 shots per game in the Premier League this season, their highest in a single Premier League campaign. However, just 28% of these shots have been on target, their lowest ratio in a single season in the competition.
  • Brighton have dropped more points from winning positions than any other side in the Premier League this season (12).
  • Brighton striker Neal Maupay has scored in three of his four league matches against Leeds, netting three times for Brentford in the Championship between November 2017 and April 2019, scoring home and away against Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds in 2018-19.
  • Since his first Premier League start for Leeds in November, only Patrick Bamford (36) has had more shots for the Whites than winger Raphinha (27), with the Brazilian having nine carries ending with a shot, five more than any other Whites player in that time.

WEST HAM V BURNLEY

3pm Another big game towards the bottom of the table. Not for West Ham though, for Burnley! With West Brom, Brighton and Fulham along with them all in action today we should have a bit of movements towards the bottom. This will be a tough game for Burnley, but they performed reasonably well in their 1-0 loss to Manchester United midweek. They deserved a draw looking at the xG figures. They have had their confidence boost by a good run of results without the performances to match; however that’s what happens when you go on a good run! This should be a good game with West Ham getting back to winning wats recently after a run with a win.

West Ham will have a lot of backers are 1.9 and while I feel that is a tempting bet, I feel under 2.5 goals offers more value at 1.77. I couldn’t but anyone off the West Ham win as they have been impressive this season, however Burnley play a very cagey game and looking at West Ham’s recent games they haven’t been creating a huge amount of chances. I can see the Hammers grinding out a 1-0 win, or possibly 2-0, but I think this fixture just screams lack of goals and chances. I’d have unders closer to 1.6, and the 1.77 has to be taken.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.77 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwhubrn

MATCH STATS

  • West Ham lost just two of their first nine Premier League games against Burnley (W6 D1) but have since lost their last three in a row without finding the net.
  • Burnley are looking to win consecutive away league trips to West Ham for the first time since April 1961 under Harry Potts.
  • West Ham are looking to win their opening three matches in a calendar year in all competitions for only the second time in the last 28 years, achieving it in 2016 under Slaven Bilic.
  • Burnley have won their last three away top-flight matches in London, as many as they’d won in their previous 35 visits to the capital in the top-flight. The Clarets are looking to win four consecutive away top-flight matches in London for the first time, last managing that in any league back in December 2001 in the second tier.
  • Burnley have won just one of their last eight away league games (D3 L4) and have failed to score in five of their last six on the road with the exception in both cases being a 1-0 victory against Arsenal.
  • West Ham have scored in 14 of their 17 Premier League games this season, with only Liverpool (15) finding the net more often so far this term. However, having netted 12 goals in their first six league games this season, the Hammers have scored the same amount in their last 11.
  • Burnley boss Sean Dyche has lost none of his four Premier League meetings with West Ham’s David Moyes (W3 D1), the joint-most he has faced a manager without losing in the top-flight (also four vs Chris Hughton and David Wagner).
  • Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored six goals in six Premier League appearances against West Ham, averaging a goal every 58 minutes against the Hammers.
  • West Ham’s Tomas Soucek has scored eight Premier League goals but is yet to register an assist – only Dean Ashton (15) has scored more Premier League goals without an assist for the Hammers.
  • Tomas Soucek is West Ham’s top scorer in the Premier League this season with five goals, while the Czech international has also been involved in more open play sequences ending in a goal than any other player for the Hammers this term (7).

FULHAM V CHELSEA

5.30pm This fixture was rescheduled for this afternoon from Friday night, and Spurs v Fulham replaced Spurs game with Aston Villa on Wednesday night. Fulham would have been delighted with a draw away to Spurs, and they are creeping closer to Brighton – they have two games in hand which will come in handy but they have to start winning games rather than drawing. Looking at their xG figures, they didn’t deserve the draw with Spurs – however they have played well and deserved to draw against Southampton, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool so we can’t take that away from them.

Chelsea have been going through a mini-crisis since around this time in December. Unfortunately for them it seems to have carried on into January, and Frank Lampard needs to find a way to turn things around. At the start of the weekend they sat in 9th position and they don’t have any games in hand too – it’s remarkable really given their start to the season – they were even touted as title challengers! In fairness they were unlucky not to beat Villa and unlucky to lose against Arsenal. They need a good performance however, and I feel it’s worth backing them to win today. Fulham are playing reasonably solid football, but they don’t create much and the best they can hope for seems to be a draw. I feel Chelsea will create enough to out-score them and they’re worth backing at 1.57.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Chelsea to beat Fulham at 1.57 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQfulche

MATCH STATS

  • Fulham have won just one of their 28 Premier League matches against Chelsea (D10 L17), winning 1-0 in March 2006 under Chris Coleman at Craven Cottage.
  • In all competitions, Chelsea have lost just one of their last 19 away matches against Fulham (W12 D6) since losing four in a row between 1975 and 1977.
  • Among the 373 fixtures to have been played at least 50 times in the English top-flight, the lowest win percentage by a team against an opponent is Fulham vs Chelsea (6%), with the Cottagers winning just three of their 50 games against the Blues.
  • Fulham’s 1-1 draw with Spurs last time out ended a run of 13 consecutive Premier League defeats in London derbies. They last avoided defeat in back-to-back such games during a run of three wins between January-April 2013.
  • Chelsea have lost four of their last six Premier League games (W1 D1), as many as they had in their previous 23 in the competition (W14 D5).
  • Chelsea lost 1-3 against Manchester City in their first league game of 2021 – they’ve not started a calendar year with two consecutive league defeats since 1993, with their first defeat in that year being at home against Manchester City.
  • Fulham have drawn each of their last five Premier League games, as many draws as they’d had in their previous 45 top-flight matches. The Cottagers last had a longer run of consecutive league draws between December 2006-January 2007 (6).
  • Fulham have lost 12 of their last 14 home top-flight London derbies (W1 D1), losing the last seven in a row, a record run by a London team in the top-flight. Manager Scott Parker played in Fulham’s last home top-flight London derby win against West Ham in January 2014.
  • Scott Parker’s first match as Fulham manager was a 1-2 defeat against Chelsea in the Premier League in March 2019. With Frank Lampard in charge of the Blues for this game, this is the first top-flight meeting between the clubs with both having an English manager since December 1967 – Vic Buckingham (Fulham) and Dave Sexton (Chelsea).
  • Chelsea’s Timo Werner has failed to score in any of his last nine league games, his longest drought in top-flight football since a run of 11 between March-September 2016. The German has played 663 minutes across these nine matches but managed just seven shots on target.

LEICESTER V SOUTHAMPTON

8pm We finish the day with a fascinating fixture. Both these sides have been rock solid this season, and while Leicester are bang in the mix for a top four finish, Southampton have a decent chance of claiming a Europa League spot. It’s a bit of a log jam between third and tenth at the moment with only six points between them. Southampton are only three points behind Leicester though, and a win here would be massive for them. They will fancy their chances too; they had an excellent record away from home last season and while Leicester are sitting in the top four at the moment, they have shown at times they are very beatable this season.

Southampton will be full of confidence after beating Liverpool 1-0, and that ended a spell of four games without a win. Three of them ended with a draw however, so they weren’t playing badly. The Leicester lay makes a lot of appeal to me at 1.88 – I really feel this one should be closer than those odds suggest. I couldn’t put anyone off a Leicester lay, however that won’t be my recommended bet as I feel under 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 2.02 – odds against with 0% commission offers a lot of value for me. Southampton always keep things very tight and I can see this being a very close and cagey affair between two very solid sides. I wouldn’t even rule out 0-0.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleisth

MATCH STATS

  • Leicester have lost their last two home Premier League matches against Southampton, one more than they did in their first 12 home games against Saints in the competition (W7 D4).
  • Southampton are unbeaten in their last four away top-flight matches against Leicester (W2 D2), winning their last two at the King Power Stadium.
  • The away team has won the last four Premier League matches between Leicester and Southampton, with the last home win in this fixture back in January 2017 (3-0 Saints). The last Premier League fixture to see five consecutive away wins was Crystal Palace vs Liverpool between May 2015 and April 2017.
  • Just 31% of Leicester’s Premier League points this season have been won in home games, the lowest ratio in the division. The Foxes have lost four of their eight home league games so far this term (W3 D1).
  • Leicester City are looking to win their first two top-flight league matches in a calendar year for the first time since 1984 under manager Gordon Milne.
  • Southampton are looking to keep four consecutive Premier League clean sheets for the first time since a run of six in January/February 2016. Saints have kept eight clean sheets in 17 Premier League games this season, just one fewer than they kept in 38 games last term.
  • Having scored in 12 consecutive Premier League matches between September and December (25 goals scored), Southampton have failed to score in three of their last four league games (1 goal scored).
  • Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has lost five of his last nine home league matches (W3 D1), as many as he suffered in his previous 77 games (W57 D15) spanning spells at Liverpool, Celtic and the Foxes. Having lost four home league games this season, Rodgers has only lost five in a season once previously, with Reading in the Championship in 2009/10.
  • All five of Leicester striker Jamie Vardy’s Premier League goals against Southampton have been scored away from home – in six home appearances, he has only managed seven shots and three on target against Saints.
  • Each of Danny Ings’ last five Premier League goals have all been scored in different months (September, October, November, December, January) – this is the second consecutive season Ings has scored in each of his first five months of a Premier League season.

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