THE STRIKER: previews the Premier League games on Saturday with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. ARSENAL v MAN U looks the highlight of the day at 5.30pm.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

EVERTON V NEWCASTLE

12.30pm It’s a very busy Saturday in the Premier League with six matches! All football bets are 0% commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today too, so let’s hope we can find some good value winners. We start the day with Everton hosting Newcastle after a decent home with Leicester midweek – they will be very confident of winning here and see this as a great opportunity to close the gap on the top four. Newcastle come into the fixture on a woeful run and have been slipping down the table. They are lucky they had a good start to the season as they still have a six points cushion on the bottom three, but they need to improve their performances soon.

Everton look cracking value here at 1.58. Looking at the Newcastle xG figures you can see why they are on such a poor run – they are consistently giving away too many chances, and they aren’t creating enough themselves. Aston Villa had an xG of 2.60 in a game they bossed, Arsenal 2.41 to 0.19, even Sheffield United created an xG of 2.13 against them. Everton have been on a good run recently and it’s hard not to see them creating enough not to beat this poor Newcastle side. It’s an ideal time to back Everton.

The Striker Says:
Four points win Everton to beat Newcastle at 1.58 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQevenwc

MATCH STATS

  • Everton have lost one of their last 16 home Premier League matches against Newcastle (W10 D5), a 1-0 defeat in September 2010.
  • Newcastle United haven’t recorded a Premier League double over Everton since the 2001-02 season under Bobby Robson, winning 3-1 away and 6-2 at home that season.
  • Last season’s Premier League meeting between Everton and Newcastle at Goodison Park saw Florian Lejeune score two goals in the 90th minute to earn the Magpies a 2-2 draw, the first instance of a player scoring twice in the last minute of an away top-flight match since April 2001 – Gustavo Poyet for Chelsea vs Derby County.
  • Everton have lost just one of their last eight Premier League games (W5 D2), going down 0-1 against West Ham on New Year’s Day.
  • Newcastle have lost their last five Premier League away games, failing to score in any of the last four. They last lost six in a row in April 2016 (a run of 9), while they last lost five in a row without scoring in May 2015 – both runs included 0-3 defeats at Everton.
  • No Premier League side is on a longer current run without a win than Newcastle (9), while the Magpies’ run of five consecutive defeats in the competition is also the current longest in the division.
  • In their first nine Premier League games this season, Everton conceded 16 goals from 42 shots on target faced (38%), shipping at least twice seven times. In their last nine, the Toffees have conceded just six goals from 32 shots on target faced (19%), and never more than once in a match in that run.
  • Just four of Newcastle’s 19 Premier League goals this season have been scored in the first half of games, both a league-low total and percentage (21%).
  • Newcastle had 22 shots (5 on target) in their 1-2 defeat against Leeds last time out, their most in a Premier League game this season. Indeed, it was more than the Magpies had managed in their previous three league games combined (18, also 5 on target).
  • Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored in each of his last four Premier League appearances against Newcastle, netting five goals. The last player to score in five consecutive appearances against the Magpies was Sergio Agüero between 2013 and 2016.

CRYSTAL PALACE V WOLVES

3pm I look at this fixture and I can only see a close game. Both sides actually have identical records in the Premier League this season as they sit right beside each other in 13th and 14th. Wolves won’t be happy to be there however, but I feel it’s a fair reflection on the type of football they have played this season. They haven’t been themselves is the best way to describe them – they have been giving away too many chances and haven’t been grinding out wins like they usually do. They managed to hold Chelsea to a 0-0 draw midweek, but it was a very boring affair.

Palace have been struggling to score goals and create a lot of chances, and perhaps both sides will cancel each other out here. It’s hard to see a very open game looking at the way the both play, and it’s no surprise to see such an open market. The draw is a very tempting bet at 3.25, but I can’t get away from under 2.5 goals at 1.61. This game absolutely screams unders looking at how they set up, and neither comes into the fixture in good form either. I wouldn’t rule out a 0-0, but I do like the unders at the odds.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.61 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcrywlv

MATCH STATS

  • Crystal Palace have lost their last three matches against Wolves in all competitions, failing to score in each defeat – the Eagles have never lost four in a row against Wolves.
  • Wolves are looking to complete their first league double over Crystal Palace since 2008/09 in the Championship, while in the top-flight they last did so in 1971/72 under Bill McGarry.
  • Wolves have already beaten Crystal Palace twice this season, once in the Premier League and once in the FA Cup; they haven’t beaten the same team three times in a season since winning three games against Reading in 2002/03.
  • Crystal Palace are looking to avoid losing three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since a run of seven in June/July 2020. The Eagles have lost 0-4 and 2-3 in their last two games, last losing three in a row while conceding at least three goals each time in November 2016.
  • Only West Bromwich Albion (48) have conceded more Premier League goals this season than Crystal Palace (36). The Eagles’ ratio of 1.8 goals conceded per game is their second highest in a single Premier League campaign, after 1997-98 (1.9).
  • Wolves are winless in their last seven Premier League games (D3 L4), last having a longer run without victory in the competition between February 2012-August 2018 (17 games).
  • Only Tottenham have scored more goals in the opening 15 minutes of Premier League games than Crystal Palace this season, with a league-high 29% of the Eagles’ goals coming in this timeframe (7/24). Last season, Palace only scored once in the opening 15 minutes.
  • In their 0-0 draw with Chelsea last time out, Wolves failed to have a single shot on target in a Premier League game for the first time since a 0-1 loss to Huddersfield in February 2019.
  • Crystal Palace have played more games in the traditional Saturday 3pm slot than any other Premier League side this season (6). The Eagles have won four of their six such games this term (L2), accounting for 67% of their total league victories.
  • Crystal Palace forward Wilfried Zaha has scored nine goals in 17 Premier League appearances this season – only in 2018-19 (10) has he scored more in a single campaign in the competition.

MANCHESTER CITY V SHEFFIELD UNITED

3pm Sheffield United done Manchester City a massive favour midweek when beating Manchester United 2-1 at Old Trafford, but don’t expect the favour returned here! With United in action later today, City will be four points clear at the top of the table by the time they kick off. City hammered West Brom midweek with a 5-0 win, and as I noted in that preview you can really see that they are hitting form at the right time. I fully expect them to put distance between themselves and the rest at the top of the table over the next few weeks. Their xG figures are very impressive recently.

It’s hard to see anything but an easy City win here, even allowing for Sheffield United taking confidence from their win against United. Sheffield United have clearly benefitted from the change to FA Cup action – they got a much needed win to boost their confidence and that has transferred over to the Premier League. They meet City at the wrong time however. City are playing perfect football at the moment and they can cover the handicap here. I like the odds against on -2.5 goals.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester City -2.5 goals to beat Sheffield United at 2.1 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmcishu

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 11 home games against Sheffield United in all competitions (W6 D5), since a 3-2 league defeat at Maine Road in October 1987, with Chris Wilder playing the full 90 minutes for the Blades.
  • Sheffield United haven’t won a Premier League match against Manchester City in nine attempts (D3 L6), scoring just one goal across those games, a Brian Deane goal in a 1-1 draw in April 1993.
  • Man City have kept a clean sheet in each of their last eight each home league matches against Sheffield United – in English league football, the last team to keep nine home clean sheets in a row against an opponent was Liverpool vs Stoke between 1983 and 2014.
  • Only West Bromwich Albion vs Liverpool (0) have scored fewer goals in their first nine Premier League meetings against an opponent than Sheffield United vs Man City (1). No team has ever scored just one goal in their first 10 games against an opponent in the competition.
  • Man City are unbeaten in their last 32 home Premier League matches against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (W28 D4), since losing 2-1 against Spurs in November 2008, who started the day bottom of the table.
  • Manchester City have won their last 11 games in all competitions, conceding just three goals in that run. They’ve never won 12 in a row in their history, while the last top-flight team to do so was Arsenal between August-October 2007.
  • Following their 2-1 victory at Old Trafford in the week, Sheffield United are aiming to win away at both Manchester clubs in the same top-flight season for the first time since 1973-74. The last side to do so in the top-flight was Liverpool in 2008-09, while the last side to do so in consecutive games was Liverpool in April 1982.
  • After a run of 20 Premier League games without a win, Sheffield United have now won two of their last three in the competition (L1). They’ve scored four goals in their last three league games, as many as they had in their previous nine.
  • Man City’s Ilkay Gündogan is enjoying his best ever goalscoring season in his top-flight league career, netting seven Premier League goals so far this term. He could become the first German player to score in four consecutive Premier League appearances.
  • 10 of Riyad Mahrez’s last 12 Premier League goal involvements have been in 5-0 victories (8 goals, 2 assists), with the exception being a goal and assist in Man City’s 2-5 defeat against Leicester earlier this season.

WEST BROM V FULHAM

3pm A massive game at the bottom of the Premier League table. We have had some big games towards the bottom this season, but there’s so much on the line here – it’s probably the biggest game of the season towards the bottom of the table. Fulham are sitting in 18th position with 13 points and West Brom sit in 19th with 11 points. Fulham have a game in hand, but they are five points away from Brighton while West Brom are seven points. If there’s a loser here, they will go down – I feel it’s that simple. The winner might be able to tag onto Brighton and Newcastle, and battle it out for the rest of the season. The stakes couldn’t be higher here.

West Brom were hammered 5-0 by Man City midweek, but we won’t read too much into that as it was expected. Fulham drew 0-0 in another big game with Brighton, however xG says they were very lucky to do so – with the game finishing 2.37 to 0.56 in Brighton’s favour. If I had to pick a winner, I would go for Fulham because they have been the better team this season – however they are a little short for my liking at 2.4 here. West Brom have been very poor this season, but Fulham aren’t exactly creating chances for fun. I like a small bet on the draw at 3.35 in what should be a low quality affair.

The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.35 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbaful

MATCH STATS

  • West Bromwich Albion are winless in their last eight Premier League matches against Fulham (D4 L4), since a 2-1 win in October 2010 under Roberto Di Matteo.
  • Three of the last four league meetings between West Brom and Fulham at the Hawthorns have been draws, with Fulham winning the other 2-1 on New Year’s Day 2013.
  • West Brom have lost each of their last five home league games, shipping at least three goals each time. In English Football League history, only Rochdale have ever lost more consecutively on home soil while shipping 3+ goals each time, losing seven in a row in Third Division North between February-May 1932.
  • Each of the last 21 Premier League goals scored at The Hawthorns has been scored against West Bromwich Albion – it’s the longest run of goals at a stadium scored against a single team in the competition’s history.
  • West Bromwich Albion are averaging just 2.7 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season (54 in 20 games), their lowest rate in a single campaign in the competition.
  • No side are currently on a longer winless run in the Premier League than Fulham (9 – D6 L3). The Cottagers have alternated between not scoring (5) and scoring just once (4) in each of those nine games, drawing 0-0 with Brighton last time out.
  • In their first nine Premier League games this season, Fulham had conceded 18 goals, at an average of two per game. In their last 10 matches, the Cottagers have conceded just nine goals (0.9 per game).
  • Fulham are looking to keep consecutive away clean sheets in the Premier League for the first time since May/August 2013. Each of the Cottagers last three league games on the road has finished level.
  • West Brom manager Sam Allardyce has won six of his last seven home Premier League meetings with Fulham (D1), since losing 2-0 as Bolton manager in May 2004. This is, however, his first such home match against the Cottagers since November 2013 with West Ham (a 3-0 win).
  • In all competitions, Hal Robson-Kanu has scored five goals in six appearances against Fulham, although he hasn’t scored in either of his two games against them for West Brom. Robson-Kanu scored three goals in two Premier League matches against the Cottagers for Reading in 2012/13.
  • West Brom have conceded 22 goals in just seven Premier League matches under Sam Allardyce, a rate of 3.1 per game. Allardyce’s previous worst goals conceded per game ratio with a Premier League club was 1.6 with Newcastle.

ARSENAL V MANCHESTER UNITED

5.30pm Manchester United blew their chance to go back to the top of the Premier League on Wednesday when they lost 2-1 at home to Sheffield United. After so many signs of promise, losing at home to the bottom of the table club was a return to the Man United we’ve seen in recent years. It will be interesting to see how they respond here against a very average Arsenal side. Arsenal have been woeful this season, and have just made it into the top half of the table with a 3-1 win over Southampton. They do have confidence after some recent wins, and they did manage to beat United at Old Trafford this season.

I’ve been saying for a number of weeks that although United put themselves into a brilliant position in the table, they weren’t playing like Champions. They have been giving away too many sloppy goals and while they have come from behind and won – they weren’t playing well enough to do that midweek. That was always likely to happen at some stage given the problems they gave themselves. xG says they were unlucky to lose, but the simple fact is they concede too many goals to win the title. I’m not a fan of Arsenal by any means, but I feel they can win this evening and are worth a small bet at 2.96. I wouldn’t have United clear favourites at 2.58 as there isn’t much between the teams and Arsenal are definitely the value call.

The Striker Says:
One point win Arsenal to beat Manchester United at 2.96 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarlmun

MATCH STATS

  • Arsenal have won their last two Premier League matches against Manchester United, last winning three in a row in September 1998 under Arsène Wenger.
  • Manchester United are winless in all four Premier League games against Arsenal under Ole Gunnar Solskjær (D1 L3) – the Norwegian is the only Red Devils manager to face Arsenal more than once in the top-flight without winning a game.
  • Arsenal are looking to record a Premier League double over Manchester United for only the fourth time – the Gunners have won the league on two of the previous three occasions they’ve done so (1997/98 and 2001/02), also managing it in 2006/07, finishing 4th.
  • Manchester United haven’t lost three consecutive away top-flight games against Arsenal since May 1991 – the Red Devils last lost three away league games in a row against any single opponent versus Brighton between 1982 and 2018.
  • Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three home games in all competitions, as many as they had in their previous 19 at the Emirates. They Gunners last recorded four consecutive shutouts at home in April 2019, a run that included a home win over Manchester United.
  • Manchester United are unbeaten in 17 Premier League away games, their joint-longest run without defeat on the road in their top-flight history (also September 1999). The Red Devils have won 26 points away from home so far this season, more than any other Premier League side (W8 D2).
  • Arsenal have won five of their last six Premier League games (D1), one more than they had in their first 14 this season (W4 D2 L8). The Gunners have netted 14 goals in these six games, two more than they had in their opening 14 (12).
  • Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta is looking to become the first ever Gunners manager to win his first three league matches against Manchester United, and only the fourth to win their first three Premier League games for any club against the Red Devils, after Carlo Ancelotti, Manuel Pellegrini and Garry Monk.
  • In all competitions, Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored in four of his last five games against Manchester United, scoring the winner earlier this season at Old Trafford. The last Gunners player to score home and away in a league season against Man Utd was Mesut Özil in 2015-16, while the only player to score the winning goal in both top-flight matches for Arsenal vs Man Utd in a season was Jimmy Brain in 1925-26.
  • Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka has been involved in seven Premier League goals this season (5 goals, 2 assists), more than any other teenager this term. The last teenager to be involved in more goals in a league campaign for Arsenal was Cesc Fàbregas in 2006-07 (2 goals, 11 assists).

SOUTHAMPTON V ASTON VILLA

8pm We finish the day with an intriguing affair between Southampton and Aston Villa. Both these clubs let us down with our bets midweek as Southampton lost 3-1 to Arsenal and Aston Villa lost 3-2 to Burnley. Villa were very unlucky however, with xG having them 2.98 to 0.79 up at the end of the game. This will be a very good game between two solid sides who have played well this season – it’s not a surprise to see an open market. I have to say when you look at the full fixture list in the Premier League this weekend, this game is probably the toughest to call.

Southampton have been tough to beat this season and don’t give away too many goals. They would have been bitterly disappointed to lose 3-1 to Arsenal midweek – especially after beating them here in the FA Cup at the weekend. This is a game for small stakes for me as I don’t have a very strong opinion – however I’ve been a big fan of Villa this season looking at their xG numbers. They create a lot and they should get more chances to in the game than Southampton. From that point of view, the 2.52 on Villa is worth a small bet to finish the day.

The Striker Says:
One point win Aston Villa to beat Southampton at 2.52 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsouavl

MATCH STATS

  • Southampton have won their last four Premier League matches against Aston Villa, their best top-flight winning run against the Villans since August 1989, when they also won four consecutively; they’ve never won five in a row against Villa in the top tier.
  • Aston Villa are winless in their last eight Premier League matches against Southampton (D3 L5) since a 3-2 win in December 2013.
  • Southampton are looking to win five consecutive top-flight matches against an opponent for the first time since a run of five against West Ham between 1988 and 1992.
  • Southampton have lost their last two Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 15 in the competition (W8 D5). They last lost three in a row in November 2019.
  • After winning five of their first seven away league games this season (D1 L1) and keeping five clean sheets in the process, Aston Villa have lost each of their last three on the road, conceding at least twice each time.
  • Since Ralph Hasenhüttl’s first game in charge in December 2018, Southampton have dropped more points from winning positions than any other side in the Premier League (47).
  • Southampton striker Shane Long has been directly involved in 12 goals in 16 Premier League appearances against Aston Villa (7 goals, 5 assists). In all competitions, Long has scored nine goals against Villa, more than he has against any other club in his professional career.
  • With four goals and five assists so far, Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse is enjoying his most productive Premier League season in terms of goal involvements in 2020-21. He made his 250th Premier League appearance against Arsenal last time out, just the fourth player to do so for Southampton in the competition.
  • Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish has been involved in 14 Premier League goals in 18 games this season (6 goals, 8 assists), the same number he was involved in in 36 appearances last season (8 goals, 6 assists).
  • Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time, last doing so in league competition in August 2018 with Brentford in the Championship.

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