PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews BURNLEY v CHELSEA, LIVERPOOL v NOTTINGHAM FOREST and NEWCASTLE v MANCHESTER CITY all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BURNLEY V CHELSEA
12.30pm The Premier League is back, and we have a wonderful Saturday ahead on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We had a dramatic International Break given it was crunch time in the World Cup Qualifiers for some sides, but it’s nice to have domestic football back and now we have a massive clean run where sides can really start building momentum. We have a hectic day ahead with seven fixtures, and we kick it off with Burnley hosting Chelsea in the early kick off. After coming into the season as a lot of Premier League fans dark horses, Chelsea have been a little lacklustre – however, back-to-back wins heading into the International Break left them sitting in third spot. That win over Spurs was a massive boost, and they still have an outside chance at a title run – that being said they are trading over 20.0! This is the type of game where they cannot afford to drop points though if they want to have any say in the title race, but Burnley are fighting for their lives too – they come into the matchday sitting just outside the relegation zone but it’s wide open at the moment. They have the same amount of points as West Ham just below them, and they’re only one ahead of Nottingham Forest too.
It feels like the relegation battle is quite open at the moment apart from Wolves, but obviously with Burnley there are some huge red flags in their performance levels. They have the worst attacking figure in the Premier League – the only side with an average xG created under 1.0. They also have the worst defensive figure too – an average xG conceded of 1.99 is massive; basically you don’t win many games conceding two goals! It’s no surprise to see Chelsea come into the game as the odds on favourites here – Chelsea are trading 1.55 with Burnley 6.8 and the draw is 4.7 at the time of writing. Everyone has dropped points at some stage this season, Arsenal have been the most consistent of course, but Chelsea have the best attacking figure in the Premier League at the moment. They are also in the top three on defensive figures too; there’s a huge gulf in class between the sides here and Burnley are there for the taking. I have to say I expected Chelsea to be closer to 1.45 than 1.55, and I feel we’re getting enough value to have a Five Star NAP to start the weekend!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Chelsea to beat Burnley at 1.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLBuCh
LIVERPOOL V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm We have a very busy Saturday afternoon with five games kicking off at 3pm – we actually haven’t had that for a while with so many sides having European commitments prior to the International Break. We have some very interesting betting heats, but for me easily the pick of the five games is Liverpool hosting Nottingham Forest. We have two sides here who desperately need a positive run now that International football is over for a while – for different reasons too! Arne Slot is going through his first rough patch as Liverpool manager – it was all too easy for him last season. That hasn’t been the case this time around, and a comfortable win for Manchester City before the International Break left Liverpool miles behind in the title race. You felt that game would decide who would be the main challenger to Arsenal this season, and City absolutely dominated Liverpool. Major signing Wirtz has been an expensive flop so far – he would be under immense pressure if the likes of Arsenal or Manchester United paid the money. He was completely bullied in midfield against City, and it goes without saying Liverpool need more.
Nottingham Forest run a good run too; for different reasons! They still sit in the relegation zone, but obviously morale is quite high around the club with Sean Dyche taking over. Ange Postecoglou was a disaster, but it seems like the owner has really put the club in an awkward spot this season with snap decisions. Ironically, Forest have been creating more this season compared to last – they have an average xG created of 1.44 this season and last season it was 1.28 but they massive over-performed! Liverpool come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.46 with Nottingham Forest 8.0 and the draw is 5.1 at the time of writing. No surprises to see Liverpool that price, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take it given the goals they have leaked this season. I feel we’ll see goals and chances at both ends of the pitch here, and Both Teams To Score looks the value bet at 1.81. Another option is Over 2.5 goals, but that’s shorter at 1.59 – I prefer the BTTS score option.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLLiNo
NEWCASTLE V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm We finish Saturday with the highlight of the day as Newcastle host Manchester City. This should be a cracker – obviously the North London Derby is the highlight of the weekend on Super Sunday but this is an intriguing fixture. It’s a massive game for Pep Guardiola’s side in my opinion – their win over Liverpool before the International Break has put them into the main challenger position against Arsenal this season. We all know that they haven’t quite been at their brilliant best, but if they really want to put pressure on Arsenal then this is the type of fixture that they have to be winning. It’s being dramatic to call it a “must win game” but after the Liverpool win, it does feel like following that up here is exceptionally important. Newcastle come into this weekend sitting down in 14th spot, but they have played better than their results suggest – they are in the top six on attacking figures, but they are really struggling to convert their chances. Their average xG created is 1.46 but they’ve only actually scored an average of one goal per game. They are in the top three under-performing sides in front of goal this season.
It’s no surprise to see Manchester City are the favourites, but this is always a tough place to come and win so they aren’t odds on. City are 2.06 with Newcastle 3.8 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. City should have taken a lot of confidence from the win over Liverpool, they absolutely bossed that game, and it was a shame from their point of view the International Break arrived when it did. City were quite easy to play against last season, especially in midfield, but Guardiola has corrected that this season in my opinion. They are creating less than when they were at their peak, but they have been exceptionally solid at the back – second best defensive figure behind Arsenal and they are conceding less than a goal a game on average. It’ll be interesting to see what Newcastle can do here given they have struggled so much in front of goal this season – they are really missing Isak for goals, and that’s something they will have to look at in the January transfer window. The market is expecting goals here with Over 2.5 goals the favourite, but I don’t agree with that. I feel City will have to grind out a win here and Newcastle are clearly struggling to get the ball in the net too – I feel the value play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.26.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLNeMc
