PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews NEWCASTLE v CHELSEA, TOTTENHAM v LIVERPOOL and EVERTON v ARSENAL all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NEWCASTLE V CHELSEA
12.30pm We have a superb Saturday from the Premier League on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We have some top class fixtures – you could say that Spurs v Liverpool will take all the headlines but Everton host Arsenal in the late kick off which could be a massive talking point depending on how Arsenal perform – for the first time in a while they are under pressure with City just behind them. We kick off the day with a cracker though as Newcastle host Chelsea – both sides were in Carabao Cup action midweek and they both progressed into the Semi-Finals. Newcastle have been playing some good football this season, but they haven’t been getting results. They come into this weekend sitting down in 12th spot on the same amount of points as Spurs, but they should be higher in the table They are creating a decent amount with an average xG created of 1.49 but they haven’t been converting those chances. Chelsea are in the top five on chances created, but they have actually been more impressive at the back – they have an average xG conceded of 1.15 which is the third best defensive figure in the Premier League this season – only Arsenal and Manchester City have conceded less chances, and with City the difference is only 0.01!
We have a blockbuster Saturday with eight fixtures, and this is one of the most open betting heats. Chelsea come into the game as the favourites at 2.62 with Newcastle 2.86 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. Chelsea have struggled a little in their last two away Premier League games; they drew 0-0 at Bournemouth and were beaten 3-1 by Leeds. Bournemouth fully deserved that draw and obviously they rotated the squad away in the Carabao Cup midweek too. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 2.62 on Chelsea here – it’s clear that they have been playing the better football compared to Newcastle this season but I would actually have the sides closer together in the betting. As I said above, Newcastle have been playing better than their results suggest, and obviously St James’ Park is always a tough place to come. I would be tempted by Under 2.5 goals at 2.28 given the way Chelsea have defended this season, but they have leaked more goals away from home and Newcastle are better than the goals they have actually converted this season. From a value point of view however, I feel the Chelsea lay is the best option to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Newcastle at 2.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLNeCh
TOTTENHAM V LIVERPOOL
5.30pm We have the highlight of the day next as Spurs host Liverpool – it’s easy to pick holes in both of these sides at the moment and it’ll be fascinating to see how it plays out. It’s no surprise that Liverpool come into the game as the favourites at 2.14 with Spurs 3.6 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing. Obviously we’ve had a tonne of drama around Liverpool lately – the Mo Salah saga seemed to have been smoothed over last weekend with the 2-0 win at Brighton. He did pick a bad time to go public with just two wins from ten Premier League games but life goes on. Spurs have clearly had their issues this season, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 2.14 on Liverpool here – their last two away Premier League wins have come against Burnley and West Ham – two sides in the relegation battle. With that being said, when you look at the under-lining numbers from Spurs this season, they are relegation standard. Spurs have an average xG created of only 1.18 this season which is the fourth worst attacking figure in the Premier League. Thomas Frank must be starting to feel the heat.
Only Wolves, Burnley and Sunderland have created less this season – Spurs were massively over-performing at the start of the season and without those points, things could be looking very different. Another defensive howler last weekend against Nottingham Forest screamed classic Spurs and now they have two wins from their last nine Premier League games. The reality with these two sides is they haven’t won enough games recently to have a lot of confidence – obviously you could say that Liverpool turned a corner with the Inter Milan win and then followed that up last weekend. However, I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here. This game screams goals, and if we’re honest these two sides have had their fair share of carnage this season. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.71 which looks cracking value – I really wasn’t expecting that to be trading so high when I clicked into the market. There’s been plenty of mistakes from both sides at the back this season, and I feel we’ll see a very end-to-end attacking game here. In my opinion, we’re getting so much value at 1.71 I’m happy with a Five Star NAP on Overs!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLToLi
EVERTON V ARSENAL
8pm We finish a cracking Saturday with another very interesting game as Everton host Arsenal. Obviously there’s a big gulf in class between the sides and Arsenal will be expected to win here by most Premier League fans, but Everton have been pretty solid at home since David Moyes came back. I know they have moved stadiums now, but they have managed to bring the steel with them – they’ve only been beaten twice at home this season. When you look at their performance levels, Everton are like two different sides this season – away from home they have an average xG created sub 1.0 but at home they create much more and they also concede less too. As I said above in an earlier game, this is a first time that Arsenal have been put under a little pressure by Manchester City – it’ll be interesting to see how they handle that over the hectic Christmas period. The win over Wolves was a complete rollercoaster; looking like they would drop points with a late Wolves equaliser before Arsenal finally found a winner. Arsenal come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.65 with Everton 6.6 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing.
Despite being so impressive this season, I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.65 on Arsenal here. As I said, Everton are pretty solid at home and I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market. Arsenal have the second best attacking figure in the Premier League this season, but where they have been really impressive is at the back. Their average xG conceded is only 0.86 which is an exceptionally impressive figure given how competitive the Premier League is – that’s the best defensive figure in Europe – even better than Bayern Munich in a weaker Bundesliga for example. I feel Moyes will set his side up to be quite negative and defend here, and with Arsenal being so solid at the back I feel we won’t see many goals here. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.84 and that looks very nice value to end the day. For those more brave, Under 1.5 goals is worthy of consideration at around the 3.5 mark, but Under 2.5 goals looks the standout play in what feels like a cagey game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Everton grind out a 0-0 draw to be honest.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLEvAr
