THE STRIKER: previews the Premier League games on Saturday with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. The action starts at 12.30pm with ASTON VILLA v ARSENAL.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

ASTON VILLA V ARSENAL

12.30pm Another excellent Saturday ahead in the Premier League and we have some cracking markets today. All football bets are 0% commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange too, so hopefully we can find some winners. We start the day with Aston Villa hosting Arsenal with both sides hoping to bounce back after losses midweek. Just when Arsenal fans though they had turned a corner with a 3-1 win over Southampton and a draw against Man United; they come crashed back down to earth with a 2-1 loss to Wolves. xG says the loss was very fair, and Wolves have been pretty poor this season – let’s not forget xG also said they were very lucky to draw with United and beat Southampton.

The reality is Arsenal have been very poor this season, and although they were once a great club, they look like a bang average mid-table side these sides. That doesn’t seem to be changing either, and it seems Europa League is their best outcome from now on. Villa have been one of my favourite sides this season, however we landed a nice bet against them midweek with West Ham at 3.5. They have been poor in their last two games, which is unfortunate as I would really like to take on Arsenal here with decent stakes. As it stands, I still feel Villa are worth a small bet at 2.7 – they have been much better than Arsenal this season and created a lot more chances. Hopefully they can improve from their performances against West Ham and Southampton.

The Striker Says:
One point win Aston Villa to beat Southampton at 2.7 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQavlars

MATCH STATS

  • Aston Villa haven’t completed a league double over Arsenal since the first Premier League season in 1992/93 under Ron Atkinson, winning 1-0 in both games.
  • Arsenal haven’t lost three league games in a row against Aston Villa since November 1993, when they lost their first three Premier League encounters with the Villans.
  • Arsenal have failed to score in their last two league matches against Aston Villa, managing just two shots on target across those games, both in their 0-3 defeat earlier this season.
  • Aston Villa have lost four of their last six Premier League games (W2), as many as they had in their previous 18 in the competition (W10 D4 L4).
  • Arsenal lost their last match against Wolves, ending a seven game unbeaten run for the Gunners in the Premier League (W5 D2). They last lost consecutive league games in November/December, a run of three which began with defeat to Wolves.
  • Aston Villa have conceded on average 1.6 goals per Premier League home game this season (14 goals in 9 games), in contrast to their away form which has seen them ship just 0.9 goals per game (10 in 11).
  • Since Mikel Arteta’s first game in charge of Arsenal in December 2019, the Gunners have had more Premier League red cards than any other side (9). Arsenal saw both David Luiz and Bernd Leno sent off in their last league match against Wolves.
  • Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins netted twice at the Emirates earlier this season against Arsenal in their 3-0 Premier League win – only Didier Drogba has ever scored 2+ goals in consecutive Premier League games against the Gunners, doing so in the 2009/10 season.
  • Aston Villa goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez kept a clean sheet in his first Premier League appearance against Arsenal earlier this season; the only two goalkeepers to keep clean sheets in their first two Premier League appearances against a club they’ve previously appeared for in the competition are Shaka Hislop vs Newcastle (1998-99) and Mark Schwarzer vs Middlesbrough (2008-09).
  • Arsenal’s Nicolas Pépé has scored in each of his last three away games in the Premier League, having scored in just two of his first 18 on the road in the competition. The last Arsenal player to score in four straight away league games was Olivier Giroud between September-November 2015.

BURNLEY V BRIGHTON

3pm An interesting fixture. Brighton have pushed themselves away from danger in the last week with wins over Spurs and Liverpool – it wasn’t so long ago that they were in danger of the bottom three but they have won three of their last four games and were exceptionally unlucky not to beat Fulham. That game finished 0-0 but Brighton had an xG of 2.37 to 0.56! You could say similar about Burnley in the sense that they looked in trouble before Christmas but they have put together a good run of results too. They have lost their last two games, but that would be expected against Chelsea and Man City.

As I have noted in previous previews, Burnley have had a good run of results but they haven’t had the performances to match. They have been pretty poor and very lucky in general to win the games they have. For example, they beat Aston Villa 3-2 but the game finished with an xG of 2.98 to 0.79 and then they managed to beat Liverpool but xG had it 1.92 to 1.10 to Liverpool. That was still a good performance by Burnley, but you can see they didn’t deserve to win. Brighton were far more impressive against Liverpool midweek and they bossed Spurs last weekend. This game seems an ideal time to back Brighton as they are in superb form at the moment and I’m happy to take the 2.3.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton to beat Burnley at 2.3 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburbha

MATCH STATS

  • Three of the seven Premier League meetings between Burnley and Brighton have ended goalless, including the reverse fixture this season. Among fixtures played five or more times, none have a higher ratio of 0-0 draws than this one (43%, level with Leicester vs Wolves & Brighton vs Newcastle).
  • Brighton are looking to record consecutive away league wins against Burnley for the first time, having beaten them 2-1 last season at Turf Moor.
  • With both games ending goalless between Burnley and Brighton in 2017-18 and a 0-0 in November this season, this could be the first fixture in Premier League history to see no goals scored in both matches in two separate campaigns.
  • Burnley are looking to avoid losing three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since October, while the Clarets have failed to find the net in a league-high 12 different Premier League games this term.
  • Burnley have mustered just three shots across their last two Premier League games (1 v Chelsea, 2 v Man City), failing to register a single effort on target in these matches. Since 2003-04, no side has ever failed to land a shot on target in three consecutive Premier League games.
  • Brighton have won three of their last four Premier League games (D1), as many as they had in their previous 23 in the competition. The Seagulls are looking to pick up three consecutive league wins for the first time since October 2018.
  • Brighton have kept four consecutive clean sheets for the first time in the top-flight. Indeed, the last time the Seagulls went five without conceding in the league was in March 2016 in the Championship.
  • Burnley’s Premier League games have seen fewer goals than any other side in the division so far this season (41), with the Clarets scoring a league-low 13 times (conceded 28).
  • Burnley striker Chris Wood has scored more English league goals against Brighton than he has versus any other side (8).
  • Leandro Trossard has either scored (vs Spurs) or assisted (vs Liverpool) the winning goal in each of Brighton’s last two Premier League games. The Belgian is yet to register a goal involvement in three consecutive Premier League appearances.

NEWCASTLE V SOUTHAMPTON

3pm After a 2-0 win against Everton that seemingly came from nowhere, Newcastle were very unlucky not to beat Crystal Palace on Tuesday! I mentioned it was very rare for Newcastle to score two goals in one game against Everton, but then they created an xG of 2.43 to 0.76 against Crystal Palace. They somehow managed to lose; usually we see xG’s the other way and they fluke a win – xG had them bottom of the table last season. Southampton suffered the embarrassment of losing 9-0 against Manchester United on the same night, and they have to dust themselves down and go again here.

I’m sure a lot of football pundits will be jumping on the anti-Southampton bandwagon this weekend after the 9-0 loss, but the xG figures actually suggest Newcastle are good value here at 3.2. It’s very rare I say that too! Southampton suffered with players missing against United, and in fairness to them they were very unlucky to lose against Aston Villa at the weekend. They created an xG of 2.51 but lost 1-0. They are a better side than Newcastle, but Newcastle are playing their best football of the season and this looks the ideal time to back them. I’m happy with a small bet as I’m not a fan of Newcastle in general, and Southampton aren’t as bad as the United game made them look – but the 3.2 is certainly a bit of value on the home side.

The Striker Says:
One point win Newcastle to beat Southampton at 3.2 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewsth

MATCH STATS

  • Newcastle United have lost just one of their last 15 home Premier League matches against Southampton (W11 D3), winning each of their last three in a row.
  • Southampton are looking to record only their third Premier League double over Newcastle, previously doing so in 1993/94 and 2014/15.
  • Newcastle have only won more home Premier League games against Aston Villa and Everton (14 each) than they have against Southampton (13).
  • Southampton’s 9-0 defeat against Manchester United was only the third instance of a team losing by 9+ goals in a Premier League match and the Saints have ended on the losing side of two of them – also Man Utd 9-0 Ipswich (1995) and Southampton 0-9 Leicester (2019).
  • Newcastle United have lost six Premier League matches in 2021, at least two more than any other club.
  • Southampton haven’t lost five consecutive league matches since September 1998 under Dave Jones, while this current four-game losing run is the longest in Ralph Hasenhüttl’s league managerial career.
  • Since Southampton returned to the Premier League in 2012/13, the only manager to lose more top-flight games against the Saints than Newcastle boss Steve Bruce (5) is Alan Pardew (6), despite Bruce not facing Southampton in any league season between 2015/16 and 2018/19.
  • Newcastle striker Callum Wilson has been directly involved in 15 Premier League goals in his first 20 appearances for the Magpies (10 goals, 5 assists), the most in a Newcastle player’s first 20 games in the top-flight since Demba Ba in February 2012 (16 goals, 1 assist).
  • Only Arsenal (12) have had more Premier League red cards since Ralph Hasenhüttl’s first game in charge of Southampton in December 2018 than the Saints (8).
  • Jonjo Shelvey’s strike in the 2nd minute against Crystal Palace was Newcastle’s third goal in the opening two minutes of a Premier League game this season – the last side with more in a season were Chelsea in 2014/15 (4).

FULHAM V WEST HAM

5.30pm The pressure is growing and growing on Fulham as the clubs just above them are winning. The gap is getting bigger and after Brighton beat Liverpool midweek they have probably moved far enough away that they can’t be caught. That leaves Newcastle and Burnley, but both those clubs are still eight points ahead of Fulham and that gap just looks too big at the moment. Newcastle are playing well too. The reality is Fulham need to start winning games – they had been performing well recently but they have been drawing too many games and that just isn’t enough in their position. It will take a huge effort to even tag onto the rest, never mind go past them.

They face a tough game here too against an excellent West Ham side. David Moyes has the Hammers playing some excellent football this season, and we landed another nice bet on them midweek at 3.5. They have been one of my favourite sides to back in the Premier League this season with the value on offer – and it’s no surprise they are sitting in fifth position – they can go past Liverpool with a win here! They are worth backing again at 2.14 to beat this poor Fulham side. Fulham just don’t create enough to live with this West Ham side who create a huge amount of chances. Their xG figures were good again midweek against Aston Villa, and they can notch up another three points here.

The Striker Says:
Three points win West Ham to beat Fulham at 2.14 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQfulwhu

MATCH STATS

  • Fulham have lost their last three Premier League games against West Ham, last losing four in a row between January 2008 and January 2009.
  • West Ham have only won more Premier League games against Southampton (18) and Spurs (15) than they have against Fulham (14), despite facing them just 23 times. Their 61% win ratio against the Cottagers is their best against a team they’ve faced 5+ times in the Premier League.
  • Fulham are winless in their last 19 Premier League London derbies (D2 L17), with only Crystal Palace having a longer such run in English top-flight history (31 between August 1969 and March 1973). The Cottagers have also conceded in each of their last 28 London derbies in the Premier League.
  • West Ham won their last away London derby in the Premier League (3-2 vs Crystal Palace), ending a run of six without a win in such fixtures in the competition (D1 L5).
  • Fulham have won only two of their 21 Premier League games this season – before this season, 13 of the 15 previous Premier League sides to win two games or fewer after 21 were relegated at the end of the season, although one of the sides to survive were Fulham in 2007-08.
  • Fulham have gone 11 games without a win in the Premier League (D7 L4) – the current longest such streak in the competition, failing to score on six occasions in this run.
  • Fulham have won just one of their last 12 Premier League home matches (D3 L8), losing each of the last three in a row. Indeed, no side has scored fewer home goals in the Premier League this season than the Cottagers (7).
  • West Ham have won three consecutive Premier League away games for the first time since December 2018. The Hammers are looking to win four away matches in a row in the competition for the first time since September 2007 under Alan Curbishley.
  • Fulham manager Scott Parker has won none of his six Premier League London derbies as a manager (D1 L5) – the only manager to take charge of more without tasting victory is Egil Olsen, who managed eight without success with Wimbledon in 1999/00.
  • West Ham’s Jesse Lingard has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances (three goals), although 192 days separated those two games – he has never previously scored in three consecutive appearances in the competition (134 PL games).

MANCHESTER UNITED V EVERTON

8pm We finish a fascinating day in the Premier League with Man United hosting Everton fresh off a 9-0 win here midweek! United have really struggled to score goals at home this season, but they decided to make up for that against poor Southampton! Everton got back to winning ways with a good performance against Leeds to win on Wednesday night and that was very positive for them after losing 2-0 to Newcastle at the weekend which came as a shock. I had egg on my face after laying United against Southampton, but I feel United are too short again here at 1.57.

Nothing went right for Southampton midweek and after they lost a man early, it was always going to be a tough battle. I said before that game that United weren’t playing well enough to be 1.55 but they hammered them. I feel at similar prices it’s worth laying them again tonight. Everton have been playing better football than Southampton this season, and one performance from United at home shouldn’t change things – for me they still struggle to score here and they also concede too many goals. They were so poor here against Sheffield United, and I feel Everton will make this game closer than odds of 1.57 suggest – for me it’s a value lay to finish the day.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Everton at 1.57 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmunevr

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester United have lost one of their last 27 home Premier League games against Everton (W20 D6), a 1-0 defeat in 2013/14 under David Moyes.
  • Everton’s only win in their last 11 Premier League matches against Manchester United was a 4-0 victory at Goodison Park in April 2019 under Marco Silva (D4 L6).
  • Since a run of six Premier League matches without a win at Old Trafford, Manchester United have won five of their last seven home games in the competition (D1 L1), scoring 20 goals and conceding just five.
  • Everton are looking to win five consecutive away league games for the first time since April 1970 under Harry Catterick, a season which saw them win their seventh top-flight title.
  • Only Manchester United and Leicester (8 each) have won more Premier League away games than Everton this season (7), with this the Toffees’ most wins on the road in a single league campaign since 2013-14 (8).
  • This will be Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s 100th Premier League match as a manager (18 with Cardiff, 82 with Man Utd). He is the 70th different manager to take charge of 100 games, though none of the three who managed their 100th game against Everton have won: Dave Bassett in 1998 (lost 0-2), Roberto Martínez in 2012 (drew 1-1) & Paul Lambert in 2014 (lost 1-2).
  • Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti has led two teams to victories at Old Trafford, winning with Milan in February 2005 and Chelsea in April 2010. Ancelotti could be only the second manager to win away to Manchester United with three different teams in the Premier League era, after José Mourinho (Chelsea, Real Madrid, Spurs).
  • Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes ended a run of five Premier League matches without a goal or assist against Southampton, scoring once and assisting two more. Fernandes netted his 10th penalty goal in what was his 36th appearance, the fastest player to reach that tally in appearances since Andy Johnson in April 2005 (32nd appearance).
  • Man Utd forward Anthony Martial has been directly involved in nine goals in his last 11 appearances against Everton in all competitions (6 goals, 3 assists), scoring and assisting as a substitute in their 2-0 win in the League Cup earlier this season.
  • Anthony Martial’s next appearance for Manchester United will be his 250th in all competitions for the Red Devils, becoming the third Frenchman to reach this milestone for the club after Mikael Silvestre and Patrice Evra.

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