PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews ASTON VILLA v LEEDS, WEST HAM v BOURNEMOUTH and MANCHESTER CITY v NEWCASTLE all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ASTON VILLA V LEEDS
3pm We have a cracking Saturday of Premier League action on Betdaq Betting Exchange! We have no early kick off this week, so we kick off the action at 3pm with three fixtures – the pick of which is Aston Villa hosting Leeds in my opinion. Villa are firmly in the mix for a Champions League spot and every point matters, while Leeds are still not quite safe but very close to being able to relax in fairness. Daniel Farke’s side have been difficult to beat on their own patch this season, but their away form has been a real concern – only eight points away from home all season puts them in the bottom three on the away table. Villa have been massively over-performing this season and while they have dropped a few points recently – it doesn’t feel like Manchester United, Chelsea or Liverpool are really putting pressure on them. Villa have an average xG created of 1.46 which is a mid-table figure in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded is also 1.46. Creating what you concede usually put you in mid-table in most of Europe’s elite leagues – you can see why Villa fans are calling Emery the “xG killer” this season!
This should be a competitive game, but given Leeds away results and Villa getting so many results this season, it’s no surprise to see Villa come into the game as the odds on favourites. Aston Villa are 1.88 with Leeds 4.7 and the draw 3.8 at the time of writing. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.88 on Villa here with their performance levels – Leeds have an average xG created of 1.36 which isn’t too far off Villa and they actually have a marginally better defensive figure too by 0.02! I wouldn’t mind a Villa lay because I feel we’ll have a closer game than those odds suggest, but the Leeds away form is a negative – on balance this is definitely a game for small stakes. It’s also hard to have a very strong opinion on the goals market – Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.92 and you can see why that market is so even – both sides leak chances but haven’t exactly got an impressive attacking figure. On paper, we have two very close sides and I feel the Villa price is giving us a little value in the market so I’m happy with a small bet on the draw at 3.8.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLAsLe
WEST HAM V BOURNEMOUTH
5.30pm Next we have West Ham hosting Bournemouth at the London Stadium. This should be an interesting game – every game is massive for West Ham at the moment sitting in the relegation zone, but they have closed the gap in recent weeks with Nottingham Forest. Obviously Nottingham Forest have hit the panic button again and sacked Sean Dyche. Three wins from five games along with a draw here against Manchester United is the best run West Ham have put together this season though, so morale in the camp is going to be at its highest all season. Things looked quite grim at the start of the season, but it finally feels like they have a bit of a spark. The under-lining numbers are still quite grim though – an average xG created of only 1.19 is the fourth worst attacking figure in the Premier League. Their defensive figure is even more damning – an average xG conceded of 1.76 is the second worst in the league and obviously they are conceding chances for fun. Conceding chances has also been an issue for Bournemouth – their average xG conceded of 1.52 is in the bottom five defensive figures.
Bournemouth have been very entertaining to watch – they have an average xG created of 1.56 which is seventh in the Premier League. You could actually make the argument that Bournemouth have been the most entertaining side to watch this season given the end-to-end nature of their games. We have an open betting heat here – it’s actually a very interesting betting heat as West Ham are the favourites, obviously the market is jumping on their momentum. West Ham are 2.5 with Bournemouth 2.92 and the draw is 3.8 at the time of writing. I know we have an open market, but I would actually have the market even more open – I cannot get behind West Ham at these odds given how poor they have been all season and I’d have Bournemouth marginal favourites. That being said, I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here because this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.58 and that jumps off the page here given how poor these two are at the back. Bournemouth create a good volume of chances and West Ham have been scoring recently too – I’m happy with a Five Star NAP on Overs!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLWhBo
MANCHESTER CITY V NEWCASTLE
8pm We finish Saturday with the headline game of the day as Manchester City host Newcastle United! All eyes turn to the Etihad in the title race now after Arsenal fluffed their lines midweek against Wolves. They had a 2-0 lead and threw it away to draw 2-2; we all questioned would Arsenal handle the pressure of a title race, and maybe that was the first big sign that they are cracking? They have a huge North London Derby on Sunday too! City simply cannot afford to drop points at home now that the door has been opened on Wednesday night; ironically the last time City started getting close they lost 2-1 to Newcastle just after they had beaten Liverpool 3-0! A win here would close the gap to just two points, and how much pressure would Arteta be under heading into the Spurs game on Sunday. Obviously there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge until we get to the end of the season, but given the situation this certainly feels like a must win game for City. They cannot let the opportunity slip. With home advantage, City are the odds on favourites at 1.49 with Newcastle 6.8 and the draw is 5.3 at the time of writing.
Newcastle had a huge win midweek in the Champions League; they won 6-1 away to Qarabag and while they were expected to win that, it does take the pressure off the second leg which is handy with a hectic fixture list. Newcastle have been struggling to convert their chances all season; they have an average xG created of 1.58 is sixth in the Premier League but they come into the weekend sitting down in tenth. That Qarabag result might be the confidence boost they needed to finally start converting their chances. City have been superb at the back though; their average xG conceded of 1.15 is the second best defensive figure in the Premier League, behind only Arsenal. It will be fascinating to see what approach Eddie Howe takes to this game; can Newcastle actually go toe-to-toe with City? The attacking figures aren’t far off; City have an average xG created of 1.67, the fourth best attacking figure just ahead of Newcastle. I do feel the 1.49 is a little short on City given how good Newcastle have been playing this season, but obviously they have been struggling for results. We saw goals when the sides met earlier in the season and with both of them in good form and creating chances, I feel we’ll have an entertaining game to finish the day here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.48 and that looks a better value option than City at one tick bigger.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLMcNe
