PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews BOURNEMOUTH v SUNDERLAND, LIVERPOOL v WEST HAM and LEEDS v MANCHESTER CITY all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BOURNEMOUTH V SUNDERLAND
12.30pm Another Premier League Saturday rolls around on Betdaq Betting Exchange as the football fixtures keep coming thick and fast! We have some very interesting markets to go through, and we kick off the day as Bournemouth host Sunderland at the Vitality Stadium. Both sides have been having an excellent season – obviously Sunderland have been massively over-performing but considering they were odds on for relegation this season I doubt their fans will care about under-lining numbers at the moment! Bournemouth are flying high – they have been one of the stories of the season – they are sitting in eighth spot, and have the seventh best attacking figure in the Premier League with an average xG created of 1.55. Bournemouth have an average xG conceded of 1.53 and they have been one of the most open and entertaining sides in the Premier League this season! Sunderland have an average xG created of just 1.15 which is the third worst attacking figure in the Premier League, while their average xG conceded of 1.63 is also in the bottom three defensive figures. On those underlying numbers alone, you’d have them deep in a relegation battle. I know I said their fans won’t care, but surely the red flags are waving in the background with a view to next season. They will have work to do in the transfer market in the summer.
It’s no surprise to see Bournemouth as the odds on favourites here with home advantage. Bournemouth are trading 1.85 with Sunderland 4.7 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. The 1.85 on Bournemouth is a tempting bet here, Sunderland have been playing poor football, but in fairness they have getting results. That would make me reduce stakes a little, but I do feel that the 1.85 is too big on the home win. Another option has to be Over 2.5 goals though; given how open Bournemouth games have been this season and the volume of chances Sunderland concede, this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.87 which is two ticks bigger than a Bournemouth win. That looks cracking value – indeed I couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest. The only negative is Sunderland have been massively getting away with things at the back – their actual goals conceded average is only 1.22 compared to the xG figure at 1.63. On balance, I’m going to go with the Bournemouth bet at 1.85 – Sunderland are quite limited in attack, so I marginally prefer the Bournemouth win compared to Overs.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Bournemouth to beat Sunderland at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLBoSu
LIVERPOOL V WEST HAM
3pm We have three games kicking off at 3pm, and the pick of them in my opinion is Liverpool hosting West Ham. This is a massive game for both sides. Obviously every point is massive for West Ham at the moment as they sit in the relegation zone; they have closer the gap to two points on Nottingham Forest but to be honest surely they will be viewing this fixture as a bonus because not many people will be expecting them to get a result at Anfield. You could also say that every point is massive for Liverpool too – they are locked in a fierce battle for a Top Four spot and simply cannot afford to drop points against sides they should be beating. Although that’s been happening a lot this season. It’s no surprise to see Liverpool come in as the heavy favourites. Liverpool are trading 1.44 with West Ham 7.6 and the draw is 5.5 at the time of writing. Liverpool should be higher in the table – their average xG created of 1.74 is the joint-second best attacking figure in the Premier League with Arsenal – ironically only Manchester United edge them out at the top. They have a decent average xG conceded figure at 1.26 but the problem for Liverpool this season has been that they’ve been sloppy at the back and they haven’t been taking all their chances.
Put that together and you can see why they aren’t sitting in the Top Four. This is a game that they should win on paper, but you wouldn’t exactly be rushing to take the 1.44. West Ham have been poor this season, there’s no getting away from it. Their average xG created of 1.22 is one of the lower figures in the Premier League (fourth worst), and their average xG conceded of 1.75 is the second worst defensive figure. Relegation figures basically, but the recent signs have been positive. They are grinding out results – effort level is much improved, and they have only lost once in their last six Premier League games. Maybe they believe for the first time this season. Anfield is going to be a very tough place to go and get a result with the performance level we’ve seen all season. However, you do feel that this Liverpool side will give you chances, and we should get an entertaining game here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.47, which looks a much better value bet compared to the Liverpool win in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.47 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLLiWh
LEEDS V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm We finish Saturday with a cracker as Leeds host Manchester City at Elland Road. We know this will be an incredible atmosphere, and City need to win every game at the moment to put pressure on Arsenal at the top of the table. A win here would close the gap to two points again before Arsenal have to play Chelsea on Sunday. Pep Guardiola’s side have been playing some excellent football in recent weeks and they are absolutely flying – they seem to have the momentum in the title race at the moment – obviously that draw for Arsenal against Wolves was a big blow. City have an average xG created of 1.68 which is the fourth best attacking figure in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of 1.16 is the second best defensive figure. City had an average xG created around 2.0 when they were at their peak, and this side just isn’t as good, but they are slap bang in the title race still. Leeds have been on a good run recently – for a side who came into the season as one of the three favourites to go down, they have only lost twice in their last 14 Premier League games, and one of those came against Arsenal.
Leeds were close to the relegation battle towards the start of the season, but they have the under-lining numbers of a mid-table side. Their average xG created of 1.36 is a mid-table figure attacking, and average xG conceded of 1.45 is also mid-table standard. Solid figures considering they came up from the Championship. At the same time, it’s no surprise to see City come in as the odds on favourites. Manchester City are trading 1.63 with Leeds 5.5 and the draw is 4.7 at the time of writing. City at 1.63 will be a popular bet given the momentum they have – there is a little gulf in class between the sides, and Leeds will be relying on Elland Road’s atmosphere. Leeds have been quite sloppy at the back though, and that might be the difference here – City are a tempting bet at 1.63. Another option is Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 in what should be an attacking game, but I do prefer the City win at four ticks shorter. That looks the value call here, and I’m happy to finish Saturday with a confident bet on City!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City to beat Leeds at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PLLeMc
