THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League matches with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. The action starts at 12.30pm with LEICESTER v LIVERPOOL.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

LEICESTER V LIVERPOOL

12.30pm We have a fantastic day ahead in the Premier League on Saturday! All football bets are 0% commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and hopefully we can find some nice winners to get the weekend started. We start with Leicester hosting Liverpool in an intriguing affair. Liverpool have been very poor recently and while Roy Keane said “they’ve been poor Champions” at the weekend, that was probably for a reaction on TV but he wasn’t far off the mark in my opinion. They have dropped points against teams that they should be beating comfortably and at this stage you have to suggest the side is burnt out after an excellent season. It will be very interesting to see how they finish the season, and can they make the top four.

This is a massive game for Liverpool. Leicester are already three points ahead of them and a loss would put a bit of distance between themselves and the top three, and then it’s highly likely Chelsea and possibly West Ham could go past them afterwards – Everton have two games in hand too. Leicester are in good form too and have been creating plenty of chances. They have kept three clean sheets in a row in all competitions now and that’s a big positive with Liverpool struggling to score their usual amount of goals. I expect a close game here and the 2.16 on Liverpool looks way too short. I’m very happy to start the weekend with a lay!

The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Leicester at 2.16 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleilfc

MATCH STATS

  • Leicester have lost their last three home Premier League games against Liverpool, their worst ever losing run in the league against the Reds.
  • Liverpool have won 12 of their last 17 Premier League matches against Leicester (D3 L2), winning six of their last seven against the Foxes.
  • Leicester haven’t lost four consecutive home top-flight matches against an opponent since a run of five defeats between 1999 and 2003 against Manchester United.
  • Leicester have lost 16 of their last 20 Premier League games against reigning champions (W2 D2), keeping just one clean sheet in that run. However, they have won two of their last four such games at home (L2), beating Chelsea in 2015-16 and Man City in 2018-19.
  • Liverpool are looking to win three consecutive away Premier League matches for the first time since winning eight in a row between November 2019 and February 2020.
  • Leicester have lost five home Premier League games this season, one more than they lost last season (4). Manager Brendan Rodgers has never lost six home league matches in a single season, also losing five in 2009-10 with Reading in the Championship.
  • Liverpool have lost consecutive league games for the first time under Jürgen Klopp – they’ve not lost three in a row in the Premier League since November 2014 when managed by Brendan Rodgers.
  • Managers who’ve previously managed Liverpool have lost their last 12 Premier League matches against the Reds by an aggregate score of 39-8. The last former Reds boss to win against them in the Premier League was Roy Hodgson in April 2012 with West Brom.
  • Leicester’s James Maddison has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League home games (4 goals, 2 assists), as many as in his previous 31 at the King Power Stadium (3 goals, 3 assists).
  • Liverpool have failed to win five of their last 10 Premier League games in which Mohamed Salah has scored for them (W5 D3 L2). Before this, they had won 35 consecutive league games in which the Egyptian found the net, and only lost one of the previous 58 such matches.

CRYSTAL PALACE V BURNLEY

3pm An interesting clash and this should be a very close game. Burnley would have been bitterly disappointed to get knocked out of the FA Cup midweek against Bournemouth. It was a very poor result after what was one of their best performances of the season against Brighton last weekend. They only drew 1-1 but they created an xG of 2.11. It’s rare you see Burnley create an xG of over 2! Palace will be well rested having had no midweek fixture, but they have a huge problem at the back and need to correct that. They have given up xG’s of 2.60, 2.43 and 3.42 recently and they haven’t exactly been playing the top sides either.

It’s unlikely Burnley will go all-out attack here and create similar xG’s, even after their recent performance against Brighton, so we have an interesting game ahead. I feel if Burnley defend well then Palace will give them chances. I think the market has Palace a little too short here at 2.46 – I take on board the fact that Burnley have been very average too this season, but I would have a more open market here with the sides priced evenly. Palace have struggled for goals and we could see a 0-0 or 1-1 here. I’m happy to have a small lay on Palace in what should be a close affair.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Crystal Palace to beat Burnley at 2.46 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcrybrn

MATCH STATS

  • Since a 0-0 draw in their first Premier League meeting in September 2014, both Crystal Palace and Burnley have won five games each of 10 top-flight meetings.
  • Burnley are looking to win consecutive away league matches against Crystal Palace for the first time since December 2001 under Stan Ternent.
  • Since a 3-0 win at West Ham in March 2018, Burnley have lost 11 of their 15 Premier League games in London (W3 D1), conceding 34 goals in the process. However, 33% of their Premier League wins in the capital have come against Crystal Palace (2/6).
  • Crystal Palace have won two of their last three Premier League home games (L1),as many as they had in their previous 12 at Selhurst Park (D4 L6). The Eagles have kept two clean sheets in this run, more than they had in their previous 12 (1).
  • Burnley have scored fewer away Premier League goals than any other side this season (5) – the Clarets have netted just two goals in their last nine games on the road, but those goals have come in 1-0 victories at both Arsenal and Liverpool.
  • Crystal Palace have an expected goals total (xG) of 21.2 in the Premier League this season, the third lowest in the competition so far. However, the Eagles have scored 27 goals, six more than would be expected based on their quality of chances. Only four clubs are outperforming their xG by more in the Premier League this term.
  • Burnley had 20 shots against Brighton last time out, more than they’d managed in their four previous Premier League games combined (19). The Clarets also had seven attempts on target in that match, having failed to register a single one in their previous two matches.
  • Burnley are averaging just 8.9 shots and 2.9 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, their lowest averages in any of their seven campaigns in the competition.
  • Crystal Palace (29y 203d) and Burnley (28y 271d) have the oldest average starting XIs in the Premier League this season. Between them, the Eagles (18) and the Clarets (6) have named the 24 oldest starting XIs in the Premier League this season.
  • Crystal Palace have lost 17 of their last 19 Premier League games in which Wilfried Zaha hasn’t played, with the Eagles failing to score in 15 of those 17 defeats.

MANCHESTER CITY V TOTTENHAM

5.30pm A couple of months ago this would have been a massive game! City started the season poorly and Spurs were flying at the top of the table – only a few short months later we come into the fixture with City as short as 1.36 on BETDAQ! Looking at the way Spurs are playing at the moment it’s hard to argue with the odds too – they have been really struggling lately and Mourinho looked very moody midweek when losing to Everton in the FA Cup. The question now is can he keep the dressing room together? Top four isn’t out of the question, but obviously needs a little help from the other sides like Liverpool and Chelsea dropping points. There seems to be an issue with Bale and Mourinho now too – plenty of drama with Spurs!

City are in peak form however, and this should be a straightforward home win. They have grabbed the bull by the horns in recent weeks in the race for the title, going five points clear with Man United dropping points. Their xG figures look incredible, and anyone who follows xG would have seen this run coming as they had been creating some incredible numbers in 2021 without the score lines reflecting it. I’m happy to back City on the handicap here – they are 1.81 -1.5 goals and that looks cracking value against a Spurs side conceding goals for fun. It was lovely to hand our Max Bet on City at the weekend, and while we won’t go all out stakes wise this weekend, the 1.81 is a nice bet.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Tottenham at 1.81 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmcitot

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester City have won seven of their last 10 Premier League home matches with Tottenham (D2 L1), though drew 2-2 with them last season at the Etihad.
  • Since José Mourinho took over, Spurs have won both of their Premier League meetings with Man City, though both were in matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in February and November 2020.
  • Tottenham are looking to win away against both Manchester clubs in a single top-flight season for the first time since 1959-60, following their 6-1 win at Old Trafford earlier this term. The last side to do so in the Premier League was Liverpool in 2008-09, while the last London side to achieve it was Arsenal in 1990-91.
  • Since losing 0-2 against Spurs in November, Manchester City have remained unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League matches (W12 D2) and have won the last 10 in a row. The Citizens have shipped just three goals in those 14 games (0.2 per game), having conceded 11 in their first eight this season (1.4 per game).
  • Spurs have won just one of their last six Premier League away games (D3 L2), having won four in a row before that. However, they’ve not lost consecutive away league games since a run of three in October 2019 under Mauricio Pochettino.
  • Tottenham haven’t won an away league game against the team starting the day top of the table since their first such match in the Premier League back in November 1992 (2-0 at Blackburn), with Spurs drawing three and losing 21 times since.
  • After winning just three of his first 17 matches against Pep Guardiola in all competitions, Spurs boss José Mourinho has won four of his last seven (D1 L2). Mourinho is looking to become the first manager to win three away games against Guardiola in all competitions, having won with Real Madrid in 2012 and Man Utd in 2018.
  • Son Heung-min has scored six goals in his last eight appearances against Man City for Spurs in all competitions – since Pep Guardiola took over at Man City, only Jamie Vardy (9) has scored more goals against City than Son.
  • Man City midfielder İlkay Gündoğan is the highest scorer in the Premier League so far in 2021 with seven goals in eight games. The German’s previous seven goals in the competition came over a period of 62 games, dating back to 2018.
  • Phil Foden has scored 11 goals and provided six assists in the Premier League for Man City – only Gabriel Jesus (23 – 16 goals, 7 assists) has been involved in more Premier League goals for the club before turning 21.
  • Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored the opening goal in more different Premier League games than any other player this season (6). Spurs have won four and drawn two of those six games.

BRIGHTON V ASTON VILLA

8pm We finish the day with the most open market of the day as Brighton host Aston Villa. Brighton would have been disappointed to lose midweek against Leicester in the FA Cup – I said before that game that Brighton went into that game playing their best football of the season but credit to Leicester, they are playing good football this season. Villa have been one of my favourite sides to support this season as they have been playing excellent football – their xG figures have been impressive and they’ve been creating a lot of chances. They got back to winning ways last weekend with a 1-0 win over Arsenal and they should be well rested given they had no midweek action.

Despite Brighton losing in the FA Cup midweek, I think it would be very unwise to right them off here. Not that the market is doing that; they aren’t far away from the Villa price. Like I said, I’m a big fan of Villa but I’m not 100% keen on them here with Brighton playing such good football. I think we’ll have a very close and competitive affair here and the draw is worth a small bet at 3.55 which looks a shade of value. Brighton have kept games very tight recently and I think if there is to be a winner there will only be one goal in it but the draw looks a nice bet, and possible trade in-running too.

The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.55 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbhaavl

MATCH STATS

  • Brighton and Hove Albion are looking to complete a league double over Aston Villa for the first time in what is their 11th season facing the Villans.
  • Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last four away league matches against Brighton (W1 D3), since losing 1-0 in December 1980 to a Michael Robinson goal.
  • Brighton’s last three home Premier League wins have all been in three different years, winning in December 2019, June 2020 and January 2021. The Seagulls haven’t won consecutive home games since November 2019.
  • Brighton are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games (W3 D2), with only Manchester City on a longer current run without defeat in the competition (14).
  • Only Tottenham (32%) have conceded a lower proportion of their Premier League goals in the first half than Aston Villa this season (33% – 8/24), while no side has conceded fewer goals in the opening 30 minutes of Premier League games this term than the Villans (3).
  • Aston Villa have won 11 Premier League games this season, keeping a clean sheet in 10 of those victories. The only victory in which they conceded was their 7-2 triumph against Liverpool in October, with the Villans losing eight and drawing one of their nine games in which they’ve conceded since that win.
  • Aston Villa’s 11 Premier League wins this season is their most in a single top-flight campaign since 2010-11 (12), while their six away wins is their most in the Premier League since 2009-10 (9).
  • Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish has been directly involved in five goals in his last five appearances against Brighton in all competitions (4 goals, 1 assist), scoring in his last two at the Amex.
  • Of all keepers to have played at least 10 Premier League games this season, only Ederson (one every 145 minutes) and Édouard Mendy (114 minutes) have a better minutes per goal conceded rate than Brighton’s Robert Sánchez (one every 98 minutes).
  • Ollie Watkins has scored 10 Premier League goals for Aston Villa this season, the most by an English player in a top-flight campaign for the Villans since Gabriel Agbonlahor in 2009-10 (13).

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