THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s four Premier League games with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. The action gets underway at 12.30pm with BRIGHTON v MANCHESTER UNITED.

BRIGHTON V MANCHESTER UNITED

12.30pm We have another superb Saturday in the Premier League and we can enjoy extra value on BETDAQ today as all sports are 0% Commission. Hopefully we can find some winners! We start with a fascinating tie as Manchester United look to get their first points of the season away to Brighton. They got a win under their belts midweek in the Cup but their performances didn’t set the world alight; although we saw a host of changes to their starting XI. Brighton have had three wins without conceding since Chelsea beat them on Matchday 1; however two of those have come against lower opposition and the other was Newcastle.

Despite those three Brighton wins coming against poor quality opposition, they couldn’t go into this game with their confidence higher. They didn’t concede and scored nine goals. They will fancy beating this United side who played very poorly against Crystal Palace in their opening game and I can’t have them at the odds here. They look very short at 1.83. United were impressive when they played Brighton off the park towards the end of last season but the jury is out after last weekend. They got another penalty midweek, and one wonders how much they can create with no penalties. I’m looking forward to seeing how this one goes, but at the odds I’m happy to lay United.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United at 1.83 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbhamun

MATCH STATS

  • Brighton have won three of their last four home league games against Manchester United, though they did lose this exact fixture 0-3 last season.
  • Manchester United have won each of the last three Premier League meetings with Brighton – of all current top-flight sides, only against Leicester (4) are the Red Devils on a longer current winning run.
  • Brighton have won two of their last three Premier League games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 17 (D9 L6). The Seagulls are looking to pick up back-to-back league wins for the first time since November 2019.
  • Brighton have won just one of their 10 Premier League home games so far in 2020 (D4 L5), beating Arsenal 2-1 in June. The Seagulls have lost four of their last five at the Amex Stadium (D1), shipping at least three goals in each defeat.
  • Manchester United haven’t lost both of their opening two games in a Premier League season since the inaugural campaign in 1992-93 (1-2 vs Sheffield United, 0-3 vs Everton), when they went on to lift the title.
  • Manchester United have won their last four Premier League away games by an aggregate score of 10-0. The last Premier League team to win five consecutive away games without conceding were Manchester United themselves in December 2011.
  • Manchester United haven’t won their first away league game in either of the last two seasons (D1 L1), including a 2-3 loss at Brighton in 2018-19.
  • Neal Maupay was involved in all three of Brighton’s goals in their 3-0 win against Newcastle last weekend (2 goals, 1 assist); the Frenchman hadn’t scored or assisted more than one goal in a game in any of his previous 38 appearances in the competition.
  • Pascal Groß has either scored (3) or assisted (1) in each of his last four Premier League appearances against Manchester United, scoring the winning goal in both of Brighton’s victories against the Red Devils in the competition.
  • Against Crystal Palace in their opening match, Bruno Fernandes had the joint-most shots (3), most chances created (5), most touches (123), most passes (94) and open play crosses (6) of any Manchester United player.

CRYSTAL PALACE V EVERTON

3pm This should be an excellent affair. Both sides have won their opening two games and they have faced some quality opposition too. Everton beat Spurs on the opening weekend and Crystal Palace put Manchester United to the sword at Old Trafford last weekend. Everton have been going well in the Carabao Cup too, and they scored five goals again midweek after scoring five on their way to beat West Brom. Their xG numbers have been impressive under Ancelotti and if he can keep them in this form they should be pushing for a Europa League spot.

It’s hard to know what to make of the Palace win against Manchester United last weekend. On the one hand, it’s very impressive to win at Old Trafford but on the other United were dreadful. I guess we’ll find out today what kind of season Palace can have; an above average one or their usual 11th to 15th position. Everton have impressed me at the start of this season, and they look good value at 2.16 here. Palace struggled to create chances at home last season and with Everton in great goal scoring form that can be the winning of the game.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Everton to beat Crystal Palace at 2.16 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcryeve

MATCH STATS

  • Crystal Palace are winless in each of their last 11 Premier League games against Everton since a 3-2 win at Goodison Park in September 2014 (D6 L5), failing to score in six of those games.
  • Each of the last three Premier League games at Selhurst Park between Crystal Palace and Everton have ended level, including back-to-back 0-0 draws most recently. Indeed, the Toffees have only suffered one defeat in 11 visits to the Eagles in the competition (W5 D5), 0-1 in October 1994.
  • Other than Goodison Park, Everton have kept more Premier League clean sheets at Selhurst Park than any other venue (9), with six of those coming in their last seven visits to the stadium.
  • Following their 1-0 win at Tottenham on the opening weekend, Everton are looking to win back-to-back Premier League games in London for the first time since May 2015. Including the win against Spurs, they’ve won just three of their last 27 league games in the capital (D11 L13).
  • Crystal Palace have kicked off a top-flight campaign with two consecutive victories for the first time in their history. They last won their first three league games in a single season in the 2006-07 Championship campaign.
  • Everton are looking to start a Premier League campaign with three straight wins for the first time since 1993-94.
  • Crystal Palace are averaging just 27% possession in the Premier League this season, the lowest of all the sides to have played twice. The Eagles have the highest direct speed in their open play sequences this season (2.46 metres-per-second), highlighting their ability to attack sides quickly when they get the ball.
  • Everton are averaging 16 shots-per-game in their two Premier League games this season, with a conversion rate of 18.8%. Last season, the Toffees were averaging 12 shots-per-game, and had a conversion rate of just 9.4%.
  • Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored three goals in his two league games so far this season, netting the winner in both matches. It’s just one goal fewer than he scored in 38 Premier League games last season.
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored his first senior hat-trick in Everton’s 5-2 win against West Brom last time out, taking his tally to four goals in two Premier League games this season. The last player to score in each of Everton’s first three league games in a single campaign was Steven Naismith in 2014-15.

WEST BROM V CHELSEA

5.30pm West Brom face another difficult game on Saturday evening as they welcome Chelsea. It hasn’t been a good start to the season for West Brom, although the fixture list hasn’t been kind to them. They had to play Leicester and Everton, and now face Chelsea. In fairness they wouldn’t have been expected to win either of their opening games, although the manner in which they have lost would suggest they will find life very difficult in the Premier League this season.

Chelsea were beaten 2-0 by Liverpool last weekend; however they lost a man in the first half and you always got the sense that Liverpool would make that count in the second half. They performed OK considering, but they were never going to be able to compete with Liverpool with only ten men. They bounced back with a smooth 6-0 win midweek in the Carabao Cup, and I’m very happy to take the 1.4 on them here, especially with 0% commission. West Brom have looked poor and Chelsea can outscore and outclass them here.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Chelsea to beat West Brom at 1.4 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbache

MATCH STATS

  • West Bromwich Albion have lost more Premier League games against Chelsea (18) than they have against any other opponent, including each of their last four in a row without scoring a single goal.
  • Chelsea have won each of their last three away league games at West Brom; they have beaten them in four or more consecutive such outings twice previously – eight in a row from April 1985 to April 2011 and five between December 1964 and March 1969.
  • Chelsea have lost three of their last seven away Premier League games at newly promoted sides (W4), including their most recent such clash at Sheffield United in July last season (0-3); they had only lost three of their previous 19 such matches before this (W11 D5).
  • West Brom have conceded more goals than any other Premier League side so far this season (8); indeed, their eight goals against is the most they’ve ever shipped in their first two games of a league campaign.
  • Chelsea have just kept one clean sheet in their 20 Premier League away games under manager Frank Lampard, winning 2-0 at Spurs in December 2019. The Blues’ last league clean sheet outside of London came in May 2019 (0-0 vs Leicester).
  • West Bromwich Albion have won just 11 points from their last 48 available in the Premier League (W3 D2 L11), with all of these points being earned in Darren Moore’s six games in charge in April/May 2018 (W3 D2 L1).
  • Chelsea boss Frank Lampard has won both of his previous meetings with West Bromwich Albion as a manager, winning home (3-1) and away (4-1) with Derby in the 2018-19 Championship season.
  • Matheus Pereira has had a hand in both of West Brom’s Premier League goals this season (1 goal, 1 assist). Indeed, since the start of last season he’s had a hand in 26 league goals for the Baggies (9 goals, 17 assists), 11 more than any other player at the club.
  • Centre-back Kurt Zouma and midfielder Jorginho are the only two players to have had more than one shot on target for Chelsea across their two Premier League games so far (2 each).
  • Branislav Ivanovic made 261 Premier League appearances for Chelsea between 2008-2016, scoring 22 goals, including one against new club West Brom back in February 2014.

BURNLEY V SOUTHAMPTON

8pm We finish the day with what should be a very close game. It’s been a poor start to the season for both sides, with Burnley losing their opening game 4-2 against Leicester last weekend and Southampton losing their first three games of the season with one of those coming in the Carabao Cup. It was very unlike Burnley to be involved in a game with six goals, usually they have very tight games with few changes. Southampton conceded five against Spurs too, and both teams will be looking to improve at the back.

Looking at the xG numbers, neither side has performed as bad as their results. Southampton lost 1-0 to Palace, but created an xG of over 1 themselves and were unlucky to lose. While the xG from Leicester v Burnley was 1.33 to 1.43 but ended up 4-2! I think we’ll see a very close game here, and I am interested in under 2.5 goals at 1.8 as well as the draw at 3.4. On balance, I’m going to have a small investment on the draw as that looks marginally better value – however I expect a low scoring game.

The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.4 with BETDAQ Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbursou

MATCH STATS

  • Burnley are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League meetings with Southampton (W4 D3), having lost two of their first three against them in the competition (W1).
  • Southampton have only won one of their 11 top-flight away games against Burnley (D3 L7), a 1-0 win in March 1971. Indeed, Saints have never scored more than once in an away top-flight game against Burnley (6 goals).
  • Burnley have played more Premier League home games against Southampton without ever suffering defeat than they have against any other side (W3 D2).
  • Burnley have lost their last two Premier League games (v Brighton in July and v Leicester last weekend); the Clarets had lost just one of their previous 15 in the competition prior to this (W8 D6).
  • Southampton haven’t begun a Premier League season with three consecutive defeats since their first season back in the division in 2012-13.
  • Since their 0-9 defeat against Leicester last season, Southampton are unbeaten in their five evening kick-offs in the Premier League (7pm or later), winning three and drawing two.
  • Burnley have lost their first home game in four of their previous six Premier League campaigns (W2), though they did win their opener at Turf Moor last season – 3-0 against Southampton.
  • Since Ralph Hasenhüttl’s first game in charge in December 2018, Southampton have dropped more points from winning positions than any other Premier League side (37), letting a further three slip from a 1-0 lead in their defeat vs Spurs last weekend.
  • Burnley striker Ashley Barnes has scored seven goals in only 12 English league appearances against Southampton, more than against any other side. He has netted in each of the last three meetings between the sides at Turf Moor (four goals).
  • Since the start of last season, Danny Ings has scored 24 of Southampton’s 53 Premier League goals (45%) – no other player has scored more than five for Saints in that time.

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