THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League matches with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. The action starts at 12.30pm with MAN CITY v WEST HAM.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

MANCHESTER CITY V WEST HAM

12.30pm We’re all set for another action packed Saturday of Premier League action with all football bets 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today! We start the day with the Champions in waiting Man City hosting West Ham. City have been absolutely superb since Christmas and they have shot ten points clear at the top of the table. They’ve gone into 1.03 for the title and who can blame the market – the others simply aren’t good enough to catch them now. West Ham have been one of my favourite teams to back this season as they have been playing some excellent football and rightly sit in the top four. It will be interested to see how they cope with this fantastic City side!

The Hammers grinded out a nice 2-1 win over Spurs last weekend, however we all know Spurs have been very poor recently. It’s hard to see them getting a result here despite their good form, and the market agrees with City trading as short as 1.25. With odds like that, City will be in a lot of Acca’s this weekend and so they should be. However, the bet I like is over 2.5 goals at 1.6. Both sides like to play an attacking game of football and you wouldn’t be very confident on City keeping a clean sheet looking at the West Ham xG figures – although they are much improved at the back in recent weeks – probably because they have been dominating games so much. With both sides playing impressive football, overs looks the value call for me and I’d expect a great game to start the weekend!

The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmciwhm

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League meetings with West Ham (W8 D2) since a 1-2 home loss in September 2015.
  • West Ham are looking to avoid defeat in both league meetings with Man City in a Premier League campaign for the first time since 2015-16 (W1 D1). However, the Hammers have lost 10 of their last 11 league visits to the Etihad (W1).
  • Since losing 2-5 against Leicester in September, Man City have conceded just three goals in 15 home games in all competitions (W13 D2). The Citizens have won their last six Premier League home games without conceding, with Chelsea the last team to have a longer such run in the competition (9 between April – November 2010).
  • Only Man City (33) have won more Premier League points so far in 2021 than West Ham (22). The Hammers have won seven of their nine league games in this calendar year – they didn’t reach their seventh win until their 23rd match in 2020.
  • West Ham have won just two of their 23 Premier League away games against the league leaders (D3 L18), with both of those victories coming in Manchester (v Man Utd in May 2007 and Man City in September 2015).
  • Manchester City are looking to record the sixth ever run of 14 consecutive top-flight victories. This had happened just once across the first 118 seasons of English top-flight football (by Arsenal in 2002), with the last four such runs occurring over the past four campaigns (2x Liverpool, 2x Man City).
  • Man City’s Raheem Sterling has been involved in 14 goals in 15 Premier League appearances against West Ham (8 goals, 6 assists), more than he has versus any other opponent in the competition.
  • In his first four seasons with Man City, 71% of Raheem Sterling’s Premier League goals came at the Etihad Stadium (34/48). In the last two campaigns, just 31% of his league goals have come in home games (9/29).
  • Jesse Lingard has scored three goals in four Premier League appearances for West Ham, as many as he did in his final 36 for Manchester United. However, no side has he faced more without ever scoring or assisting a Premier League goal than he has Man City (9 games).
  • Michail Antonio has scored 42 Premier League goals for West Ham, making him their third top scorer in the competition behind Paolo Di Canio (47) and Mark Noble (46). He’s looking to become the first West Ham player to score home and away against Man City in a league season since Iain Dowie in 1995-96.

WEST BROM V BRIGHTON

3pm I really fancied Brighton to get the job done on Monday night against Crystal Palace and it’s hard to believe they lost 2-1. Brighton finished the game with an xG of 3.03 compared to just 0.27 from Crystal Palace; but the overwhelming feeling after the game was “Isn’t that classic Brighton?” Unfortunately for them it’s becoming a running joke how good they have been performing in defeat. The xG table puts them in fifth and yet they are sitting all the way down in 16th just four points off the relegation zone. The reality is they just have to keep playing like they have been and the results will eventually come, but as we all know these days football is a very fast game/ It’s hard to believe the board could consider changing anything though looking at the underlining numbers.

We have the same issue heading into this fixture however – Brighton are a reasonably short price but jump off the page looking at the performances. The question you have to ask yourself is how many times do you want to be disappointed. The answer for me is I’m not finished backing them yet; especially against poor sides like West Brom. It’s hard to see West Brom creating many chances – they’ve also scored four times in their last six games and two of those goals came against Fulham. They have been very poor this season and Big Sam hasn’t improved them. Brighton have been exceptionally unlucky to not beat Aston Villa and Crystal Palace – they are probably playing some of their best football all season and I have to take a chance on them again here at 2.02.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton to beat West Brom at 2.02 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwbabri

MATCH STATS

  • West Brom have never lost in 10 previous home league meetings with Brighton (W6 D4). It’s the most they’ve faced an opponent at home in the Football League without ever suffering defeat.
  • Brighton have only won one of their 11 top-flight meetings with West Brom (D6 L4), winning 3-1 in September 2017.
  • West Brom are winless in their last seven Premier League games (D3 L4), and also their last seven Premier League home games (D2 L5). The Baggies have conceded a league-high 55 Premier League goals so far this season.
  • West Brom are averaging just 7.8 shots per game in the Premier League this season, the lowest rate on record in a single campaign in the competition (since 1997-98).
  • Brighton have lost just one of their last six away league games (W2 D3), with that defeat coming at league leaders Manchester City.
  • All four of Brighton’s games against teams starting the day in the relegation zone this season have ended in a draw, with three of those finishing goalless.
  • Brighton’s first eight away league games this season saw 24 goals scored, at an average of three per game (F11 A13). The Seagulls’ last four on the road have seen just five goals scored, just over one per game (F3 A2).
  • Only Manchester City (54) and Chelsea (72) have faced fewer shots on target in the Premier League this season than Brighton (81). However, the Seagulls have shipped 32 goals, meaning 40% of their shots on target faced have ended in goals.
  • Against no side has West Brom manager Sam Allardyce faced more often without losing in English league football than he has Brighton (9 – W6 D3). The Seagulls are also one of just two sides Allardyce has beaten in each of the top four tiers of English football, along with Cardiff.
  • After netting four goals in his first four league appearances this season, Brighton striker Neal Maupay has netted just three in his subsequent 19 Premier League games. However, 71% of his league goals this season have come away from home (5/7).

LEEDS V ASTON VILLA

5.30pm Another fascinating fixture and match odds market. Leeds got back to winning ways on Tuesday with a smooth 3-0 win over Southampton – xG didn’t have them as clear as the final result but they are another side like Brighton in the sense that they always create good figures and chances but fail to win games they should. I mentioned above how West Ham have been one of my favourite sides this season, well so have Aston Villa but they have slowed down in recent weeks looking at their performances. They lost a very tight game against Leicester at the weekend, but they have been creating the same volume of chances that they have towards the start of the season. I would suggest they are playing their worst football of the season at the moment – but I’m not saying that’s a terrible standard, just their standard has dropped.

It will be very interesting to see how this match plays out as both sides have enjoyed attacking football this season. Looking at their xG numbers, I would suggest Leeds come into this fixture in better form than Aston Villa, but they market has them trading 2.26 which I feel is too short. I would definitely have Leeds favourites, but I wouldn’t have them at those odds. With Villa struggling I’m not confident on the lay either. The bet I like is over 2.5 goals at 1.7 which looks a very attractive price looking at both sides. Leeds have been one of the best sides to watch this season with plenty of chances at both ends of the pitch and I don’t see Aston Villa sitting back and playing negative football so I expect a very end-to-end game here and overs looks the best value bet.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleeast

MATCH STATS

  • Leeds are looking to complete their first league double over Aston Villa since the 1975-76 campaign, following their 3-0 win at Villa Park earlier this season.
  • Aston Villa have won just two of their last 17 away league games against Leeds (D9 L6), with those victories coming in January and December 2000.
  • Leeds are looking to win consecutive league games against Aston Villa for the first time since April/August 1995. In the Premier League, the Whites have lost just one of their last eight meetings with the Villans (0-2 in February 2004).
  • Only Manchester United (17), Liverpool (14) and Newcastle (14) have won more Premier League away games in Yorkshire than Aston Villa (13). However, the Villans have failed to score in their last three top-flight visits to the county since beating Hull 2-0 in April 2010.
  • Leeds have lost five of their eight Premier League games played on Saturdays this season (W2 D1), while Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last six Saturday league games (W5 D1), keeping a clean sheet each time.
  • All three of Aston Villa’s Premier League games against promoted sides this season have finished 3-0, with the Villans beating Fulham and West Brom and losing to Leeds. Aston Villa are looking to win away against all three promoted teams in a single Premier League season for the first time.
  • When conceding at least once, Aston Villa have won just one of their last 22 Premier League games (D4 L17), losing nine of their last 10 since beating Liverpool 7-2 in October.
  • Leeds’ Patrick Bamford has scored five goals in his three starts in all competitions against Aston Villa, including the first Premier League hat-trick of his career in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
  • Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins has faced Leeds United more often than any other opponent without scoring in his English league career, drawing a blank in each of his seven appearances against the Whites.
  • Aston Villa keeper Emiliano Martínez has a save percentage of 77.4% in the Premier League this season, the highest on record in a single top-flight campaign for the Villans (since 2003-04, min. 10 games). The Argentine has also kept 12 clean sheets this term, with Brad Friedel the last Villa goalkeeper to keep more than 12 in a top-flight season (15 in 2009-10).

NEWCASTLE V WOLVES

8pm We finish a Super Saturday on BETDAQ with Newcastle hosting Wolves. Newcastle have had a tough run of fixture in recent weeks having had to play Chelsea and Manchester United but now the pressure is really on them at the bottom of the table. With Fulham starting to collect points there is only three points between Newcastle and Fulham. Every game is massive now, but it’s fair to say this is a massive game for Newcastle as Fulham will fancy their chances of beating Crystal Palace tomorrow and if Newcastle lose here then they will be level on points. It seemed like Fulham were miles away only weeks ago but now it’s looking like an excellent battle.

Although Newcastle are indeed under pressure, they will fancy this game against a Wolves side who have been poor this season. They sit all the way down in 12th starting the weekend and that’s after two recent weeks – that’s not where they want to be as they should be challenging for at least a Europa League spot. They were exceptionally lucky to beat Leeds last time out too, winning 1-0 but conceding an xG of 2.73. That has been their problem this season – conceding too many goals. Newcastle are a very limited side, but I feel Wolves are too short here in what should be a close game. Wolves are bound to give away chances and Newcastle could keep them out if they score first. I would have the sides pretty even in the betting so the 2.42 Wolves lay looks very nice value.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Wolves to beat Newcastle at 2.42 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewwlv

MATCH STATS

  • Since a 4-1 victory in April 2011, Newcastle are winless in their last four home league games against Wolves (D2 L2).
  • Of all the Premier League fixtures to have been played at least 10 times, Newcastle v Wolves has seen the highest percentage of games finish in a draw (73% – 8/11). Each of the last four league meetings between the sides has finished 1-1.
  • Both teams have scored in all 11 Premier League meetings between Newcastle and Wolves, making it the most played fixture in the competition in which neither side has kept a clean sheet.
  • Newcastle have had a player sent off in each of their last three home league games against Wolves – Vurnon Anita in September 2016, DeAndre Yedlin in December 2018 and Sean Longstaff in October 2019.
  • Newcastle have lost eight of their last 10 Premier League games, winning the other two. Indeed, the Magpies have lost more league games in 2021 than any other Premier League side (8).
  • Wolves have won three of their last four Premier League games (D1), as many as they had in their previous 16 beforehand (D5 L8). They’re looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since June 2020.
  • Newcastle have conceded exactly twice in each of their last four Premier League home games – they’ve not shipped 2+ goals in five consecutive league games at St. James’ Park since September 1991 in the second tier.
  • Each of Newcastle’s last five Premier League goals have come in the first half – just four of their first 21 Premier League strikes this season had come before half-time prior to this.
  • Wolves have conceded the first goal in 16 Premier League games this season, with only bottom two sides West Brom (17) and Sheffield United (19) doing so in more. However, only Manchester United (22) have won more points from losing positions in the division this term than Wolves (12).
  • Wolves’ Leander Dendoncker has had more shots without scoring than any other player in the Premier League this season, with the Belgian failing to find the net with any of his 26 attempts so far this term.

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