THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games between BURNLEY v ARSENAL, SHEFFIELD UNITED v SOUTHAMPTON, ASTON VILLA v WOLVES and BRIGHTON v LEICESTER all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

BURNLEY V ARSENAL

12.30pm After a busy midweek in the Premier League, we go full steam ahead into another full fixture list at the weekend! This season has been relentless; however I’m not complaining it’s been great enjoying all the games and the staggered TV approach is excellent. Once again all football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today and also every Saturday in March – so hopefully we can continue the good form after going three from three on Thursday evening! We start the weekend with Burnley hosting Arsenal in an interesting fixture from a betting point of view. Burnley have been poor lately – but can we trust Arsenal at odds on?

I’m not a huge fan of Arsenal, indeed I’m not a fan at all, but I believe today is a good time to back them. Ironically both clubs have played their last game against Leicester, with Arsenal winning 3-1 and Burnley drawing 1-1. Burnley were very poor against Spurs before that and with the game behind closed doors it does take away the “Arsenal are dodgy away from home” element too. Backing Arsenal will always come with a wealth warning for me, but I feel they will thrive against this Burnley side who have been struggling to create chance lately. I can’t see Burnley putting the pressure on Arsenal and when Arsenal aren’t under pressure they play good football. Stakes should be kept low, because it’s Arsenal, but the 1.68 is worth backing to start the weekend.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Arsenal to beat Burnley at 1.68 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburarl

MATCH STATS

  • Burnley are looking to complete their first league double over Arsenal since the 1962-63 campaign, following their 1-0 win at the Emirates earlier this season.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten in their last eight away league games against Burnley (W4 D4), keeping a clean sheet in four of their last five. Their last league defeat at Turf Moor was in December 1973.
  • Arsenal have conceded just seven goals in their 13 Premier League meetings with Burnley, and never more than once in a match. It’s the most they’ve faced a side in the competition without conceding more than one goal in any of their meetings.
  • Burnley have won just one of their nine Saturday Premier League matches this season (D3 L5), winning 3-0 at Crystal Palace last month. Their only 12.30 Saturday kick-off this season ended in a 1-1 draw at home to Everton.
  • Arsenal have won four of their last six Premier League away games (L2), as many as they had in their previous 18 on the road (D6 L8).
  • Following 3-2 and 3-1 victories against Benfica and Leicester respectively, Arsenal are looking to score 3+ goals in three consecutive games in all competitions for the first time since September 2019 under Unai Emery.
  • Ashley Barnes has scored 43% of Burnley’s Premier League goals against Arsenal (3/7) – he’s the only current member of their squad to score a league goal for the Clarets against Arsenal.
  • Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored more Premier League goals against Burnley than he has any other side in the competition (7). However, the Gunners captain scored the winning goal at the wrong end in the reverse fixture this season.
  • Arsenal’s Nicolas Pépé has scored in four of his last five away games in the Premier League, having netted in just two of his first 18 on the road in the competition.
  • Arsenal’s Alexandre Lacazette has scored seven away goals in the Premier League this season, more than he had in 2018-19 and 2019-20 combined (6). Seven of the Gunners’ 11 Premier League victories this season have been in games in which Lacazette has scored.

SHEFFIELD UNITED V SOUTHAMPTON

3pm Most football fans will look at this fixture and pass over it quite quickly as it’s not the most glamorous of ties! However, I find it fascinating – especially from a betting point of view. We all know Sheffield United have been poor this season, but Southampton have been going through a tough patch and they arrive here trading 2.14. The question is does that losing run continue or will they beat a poor Sheffield United side? I feel when you look at the recent xG figures there is only one answer – Southampton break their losing run and win the game for me.

Sheffield United may have beat Aston Villa 1-0 midweek, but the final score doesn’t tell the full story. The Blades were exceptionally lucky to win 1-0 conceding an xG of 2.19 – it was just one of those nights for Villa; they couldn’t put the ball in the net. While Southampton have been losing games, they actually haven’t been playing that badly. They haven’t been creating so much they deserve to win, but they should have drawn with Everton and they played well against Leeds, Chelsea and Wolves – and then shouldn’t have lost to Newcastle. This is their chance to get back to winning ways and granted they might play well and fail to win again – however the 2.14 is worth backing as I believe they should be odds on looking at the underlining numbers.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Southampton to beat Sheffield United at 2.14 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQshusou

MATCH STATS

  • Sheffield United have lost two of their last three home league games against Southampton, more than they had in their previous 15 at Bramall Lane (W11 D3 L1).
  • Southampton have won their last three league meetings with Sheffield United, last winning four in a row against them in 1950 in the second tier.
  • Sheffield United have won just one of their seven Premier League meetings with Southampton (D2 L4), with that victory coming in the first such meeting between the sides in October 1992 (2-0).
  • Since their return to the Premier League in 2012, Southampton have won four of their seven Premier League games in Yorkshire (D1 L2), as many as they had in their first 25 in the competition between 1992-93 and 2004-05 (W4 D10 L11).
  • Sheffield United have lost all eight of their Premier League games played on Saturdays this season – as it stands, it’s the highest number of games a team has played on a specific weekday within a single Premier League season with a 100% loss rate.
  • Southampton are on the longest current winless run in the Premier League, losing eight of their last nine games (D1) since beating Liverpool in January.
  • After scoring in 12 consecutive league games between September – December (averaging 2.1 goals-per-game), Southampton have failed to score in eight of their last 13 Premier League matches (averaging 0.5 goals-per-game).
  • Away from home, Southampton have lost their last five Premier League games by an aggregate score of 18-2. They last lost more consecutive away games in the top-flight between November 2004 and February 2005 (7).
  • Southampton striker Che Adams has scored more Premier League goals against Sheffield United than he has versus any other side, netting three goals in three appearances against his former employers.
  • Sheffield United striker David McGoldrick has scored six Premier League goals for the Blades this season, twice as many as any other player (Billy Sharp, 3). He is looking to score in consecutive league games for the first time since January 2019 in the Championship.

ASTON VILLA V WOLVES

5.30pm We have another very competitive betting heat today, indeed it’s an excellent day for interesting betting markets. As I mentioned above, Aston Villa were desperately unlucky to lose midweek against Sheffield United – creating an xG of 2.19 in a 1-0 loss. Villa have been superb going forward this season and I feel they deserve to be higher in the table. They have certainly had some unlucky results when they have played well. They have an excellent chance to bounce back to winning ways quickly against a poor Wolves side this season. It was nice to land a 4.1 shot on the Wolves game midweek as they lost 4-1 to City, but I’d be more worried about their performances against other sides rather than losing to City.

They could only draw with Newcastle and they were exceptionally lucky to beat Leeds before that. They won 1-0 but conceded an xG of 2.73. That has been a big issue for Wolves this season – they have just been conceding too many chances and I feel Aston Villa will really enjoy playing them this evening. Villa have been excellent going forward, and with the number of mistakes Wolves have at the back it’s hard to see Villa not scoring and getting a lot of chances. Wovles have been creating a lot going forward either, and Villa look an excellent value bet at 2.52 to outscore Wolves.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Aston Villa to beat Wolves at 2.52 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQastwol

MATCH STATS

  • Aston Villa are looking to secure their first league double over Wolves since the 2003-04 campaign, following their 1-0 win at Molineux back in December.
  • Wolves won this exact fixture 1-0 last season – they haven’t won consecutive away league games against Aston Villa since a run of three between 1957 and 1960.
  • Aston Villa have won just one of their last six home league games against Wolves (D3 L2), having won six of their seven prior to that (L1).
  • Aston Villa have won all five of their Premier League home games when scoring first this season and lost all five at Villa Park when conceding first. The other game finished goalless, making Villa Park the only ground not to see a single point gained/lost from a losing/winning position this season.
  • Aston Villa have the highest win rate in Premier League games played on Saturdays this season (75% – 6/8), while Wolves (5 games) are one of two sides yet to win on Saturday in the top-flight so far this term (along with Sheffield United).
  • Aston Villa netted 27 goals in their first 13 Premier League games this season, netting 3+ goals on six separate occasions – in their last 12 games, they have scored just 11 goals, failing to score more than twice in any game.
  • Only Sheffield United have conceded the first goal in more different Premier League games than Wolves this season (18). Indeed, Wolves have opened the scoring in just one of their last 17 league games, doing so in their 1-0 victory against Leeds last month.
  • Wolves have conceded 23 away goals in the Premier League this season, already two more than they did on the road in the whole of 2019-20.
  • Ollie Watkins has scored seven home Premier League goals this season – the last Aston Villa player to net more at Villa Park in a top-flight campaign was Christian Benteke in 2012-13 (11), while the last English player to do so was Darius Vassell in 2001-02 (8).
  • In their last game against Man City, Wolves defender Conor Coady scored with his first ever Premier League shot on target, in what was his 103rd appearance in the competition. It’s the longest an outfield player has waited for their first shot on target in the Premier League since Paulo Ferreira (105 games between 2004 and 2010).

BRIGHTON V LEICESTER

8pm We finish an intriguing Saturday with an intriguing game! It’s the most open market of the day and these two are in desperate need of a win. This might be a routine fixture for the casual football fan, but this is actually a massive game for both sides. Leicester need to steady the ship in the race for the Top Four after losing some valuable ground recently and Chelsea catching up quickly. While Brighton need a win – they just need a win. They are three points away from the relegation zone and they play like a top eight team. Indeed, the xG table puts them in fifth. Their last three games have been remarkable – they created an xG of 2.44 in a 0-0 draw with Aston Villa, 3.03 in a 2-1 loss to Crystal Palace and 3.28 in a 1-0 loss to West Brom.

Playing as good as that and not winning from three games must be very high odds! It’s tough on morale but the reality is they just have to keep playing like they have been and the results will come. They have been exceptionally unlucky. Imagine if they got relegated playing football like this? It would be incredible! I think they are meeting Leicester at a good time too – Brendan Rodgers took a chance and rested players for the Europa League, they got knocked out and then lost their important game against Arsenal. They couldn’t put Burnley away midweek and have been giving up plenty of chances. Brighton will create a lot going forward and at 2.68 they are worth backing. It’s quite simple really – they just have to take their chances! They are playing their best football of the season at the moment though, and it’s a good time to back them.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Brighton to beat Leicester at 2.68 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbhalei

MATCH STATS

  • Brighton are winless in all seven of their Premier League meetings with Leicester (D2 L5), failing to score on five occasions in this run.
  • Leicester have faced Brighton without ever losing more than they have any other side in the Premier League (7 – W5 D2).
  • Leicester have already beaten Brighton twice this season (3-0 in Premier League, 1-0 in FA Cup). The last time they won three games against the same top-flight club in the same season was back in 1962-63, doing so against Ipswich, Leyton Orient and Liverpool.
  • Brighton have lost their last two Premier League games, last losing three in a row in November 2019. Over these two games, the Seagulls have had 40 shots (11 on target) to their opponents nine (four on target), averaged 72.5% possession, and have an expected goals total of 5.5 (compared to 1 against).
  • Brighton have won eight penalties this season, more than in any of their previous three campaigns in the competition. However, the Seagulls have missed three of those spot kicks this term (including two against West Brom last time out), just one fewer than in their previous three campaigns combined (missed 4/15).
  • Brighton have won just 10 home Premier League points this season (P13 W1 D7 L5), with no side collecting fewer this season. Eight of the previous nine sides in Premier League history to win one or fewer game in their first 13 home games in a season have been relegated, with Wigan Athletic in 2011-12 the only exception.
  • Leicester are unbeaten in their last 12 away games in all competitions (W7 D5), only having one longer away unbeaten run in their entire history, a 14-match stretch between April and December 2015.
  • Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has been involved in eight goals in his last six Premier League appearances against Brighton (5 goals, 3 assists), having a hand in all three in the Foxes’ 3-0 win in the reverse fixture (1 goal, 2 assists).
  • Since Brighton were promoted to the Premier League in 2017-18, only Kevin De Bruyne (339) has created more chances in the top-flight than Pascal Groß (242), with the German creating the most chances in all four seasons for the Seagulls, including 2020-21 (47).
  • Leicester’s Kelechi Iheanacho has scored three goals in his last six appearances in all competitions, as many as in his previous 23 for the Foxes. One of those goals was a 90th-minute winner in Leicester’s 1-0 FA Cup win over Brighton last month.

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