THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games between CHELSEA v WEST BROM, LEEDS v SHEFFIELD UNITED, LEICESTER v MAN CITY and ARSENAL v LIVERPOOL with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

CHELSEA V WEST BROM

12.30pm The Premier League is back and what a day we have ahead of us! All football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange too for some excellent value. We have some fantastic fixtures today, with Arsenal v Liverpool being the highlight later, but we kick off the day with Chelsea hosting West Brom. Chelsea went into the International break on a high after getting through their Champions League and FA Cup ties, but they face a real battle for their Top Four spot now. They have an advantage of two points over West Ham and three over Spurs, but some recent draws has seen the top three form a little bit of a gap. Perhaps Chelsea can close that gap with Leicester having to play City today too.

West Brom have been very poor this season, and I can’t see past a Chelsea win here. The market agrees, with Chelsea trading as short as 1.25. That’s a bet for any BETDAQ Multiple today, but I’m going to look for a little bit of value in the side markets. I think one bet stands out here and that’s Chelsea to cover the 1.5 goal handicap at 1.8. West Brom have really struggled in front of goal lately and Chelsea have been rock solid at the back. That’s been their main improvement since sacking Frank Lampard and with their good form going forward too, I fully expect them to cover the handicap.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Chelsea -1.5 goals to beat West Brom at 1.8 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQchewba

MATCH STATS

  • Chelsea are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League meetings with West Brom (W5 D2), coming from 0-3 down at half-time to draw 3-3 in the reverse fixture at the Hawthorns this season.
  • West Brom are winless in their last 15 away league games against Chelsea (D3 L12) since a 3-1 win in September 1978. In the Premier League, the Baggies have lost 10 of their 12 visits to Stamford Bridge (D2), failing to score on nine occasions in that run.
  • Since a 0-1 defeat to Bournemouth in December 2015, Chelsea have won their last 11 Premier League home games against sides in the relegation zone by an aggregate score of 31-4.
  • West Bromwich Albion have won just 10% of their Premier League games in London (W7 D19 L44), the lowest ratio of any non-London side with at least 50 visits to the capital. The Baggies are winless in their last 13 such games since a 1-0 win at Crystal Palace in August 2016 (D2 L11).
  • Chelsea have had five goalless draws in the Premier League this season, with three of those coming in their 10 games under Thomas Tuchel. Only in 1998-99 and 2001-02 (both six) have the Blues had more 0-0 draws in a single Premier League campaign.
  • West Bromwich Albion have scored fewer (9) and conceded more (30) second half goals than any other Premier League side this season. Meanwhile, no side has conceded fewer goals after half-time than Chelsea (10), while 61% of the Blues’ goals scored this term have come in the second half (27/44).
  • After conceding 28 goals in their first 10 Premier League games under Sam Allardyce (2.8 per game), West Brom have shipped just three times in their last six in the competition (0.5 per game). However, the Baggies have scored just 10 goals in 16 league games under Allardyce (0.6 per game), failing to score in their last three.
  • Chelsea are yet to concede a single goal in their five Premier League home games under Thomas Tuchel. In English top-flight history, the only team to keep a clean sheet in their first six home games under a specific manager are Manchester City under Ron Saunders in 1973-74.
  • Hakim Ziyech has scored in both of his last two appearances for Chelsea in all competitions, the same number as in his first 24 games for the club. The Moroccan hasn’t scored in three consecutive club games since a run of four in January 2016 with FC Twente.
  • All three of West Brom forward Callum Robinson’s Premier League goals have been scored against Chelsea, scoring once for Sheffield United last season and twice in the reverse fixture for the Baggies this term.

LEEDS V SHEFFIELD UNITED

3pm Another game involving a side in the bottom three here as Leeds host Sheffield United. Leeds have played very positive football all season, and they went into the International break with a draw against Chelsea and a win against Fulham. They are a solid mid-table Premier League side now, but they are very impressive going forward and if they could solve their issues at the back they could challenge for a Europa League spot in the next two years. That has to be the main job for management now, as there isn’t much work needed going forward. Their xG figures have been excellent, and they should get the job done here against a leaky Sheffield United side.

Backing Leeds on the handicap is tempting because of the prices on offer, but I’m happy to stick with the 1.57 on them to win. Sheffield United have had a reasonably tough run of fixtures, but they’ve lost their last three in all competitions without scoring and conceding nine. They managed to beat Aston Villa but that was incredibly lucky as they conceded an xG of 2.19. They have conceded xG’s of 4.36, 2.10, 2.19 and 3.0 recently – with the volume of chances Leeds create I can only see one way traffic here. I’d have Leeds a little under 1.5, and I can’t ignore the 1.57 on offer.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Leeds to beat Sheffield United at 1.57 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleeshe

MATCH STATS

  • Leeds have won two of their last three league games against Sheffield United (L1), as many as in their previous 11 against the Blades (D3 L6). They’re looking to complete their first league double over their Yorkshire rivals since their 1991-92 title winning campaign.
  • Sheffield United have won their last two away league games against Leeds – they’ve never won three in a row at Elland Road. However, in the top-flight they’ve won just one of their last 15 away games against Leeds (D4 L10), with this their first such visit since a 1-2 defeat in September 1993.
  • Leeds have kept a clean sheet in three of their last four home league games, as many as they had in their previous 27 top-flight games at Elland Road.
  • Leeds are looking to win consecutive Premier League games for just the fourth time this season, though the Whites have won all four of their meetings with sides in the relegation zone by an aggregate score of 12-4 this term.
  • Leeds have scored a league-high share of 22% of their Premier League goals from outside the box so far this season (10/45), while Sheffield United have conceded more goals from distance than any other side in the competition so far (11).
  • Leeds’ Premier League games have seen a league-high 92 goals scored so far this season, with the Whites scoring 45 and conceding 47. Indeed, Leeds’ haul of 45 goals is the most by a promoted team at this stage of a Premier League season since Sunderland in 1999-00 (46).
  • Sheffield United have scored a league-low 16 Premier League goals this season, but have an expected goals (xG) total of 26.8, meaning they’ve scored almost 11 goals fewer than expected based on the quality of their chances. Indeed, the Blades have the lowest shot conversion rate in the league this term, netting just 6.56% of their attempts (16/244).
  • Sheffield United’s Paul Heckingbottom was in charge of Leeds for 16 games in 2018. He’ll be the 14th different manager to face the Whites in a league game at Elland Road having previously managed them, with only three of the previous 13 winning their first visit back (D1 L9) – Allan Clarke in 1986 (with Barnsley), Neil Redfearn in 2015 (with Rotherham) and Neil Warnock in 2017 (with Cardiff).
  • Patrick Bamford scored the only goal in Leeds’ 1-0 win at Bramall Lane in the reverse fixture – the last Leeds player to score home and away against Sheffield United in the same league season was Peter Swan in 1987-88.
  • No player has scored the opening goal in more different Premier League games this season than Leeds’ Patrick Bamford (6). Leeds have gone on to win five of the six games in which he’s netted the first goal, losing the other at Chelsea.

LEICESTER V MANCHESTER CITY

5.30pm All eyes might be on Arsenal v Liverpool later, but this is a fascinating fixture. Indeed, it’s probably a more high quality fixture given how well the sides have played this season. While Man City are running away with the title, Leicester have also been having an excellent season. They have built a bit of a gap and they will be very hopeful of not falling out of the Top Four on the run-in this season. Not many punters will be giving them a chance against Man City, however they come into the game on the back of three wins and they hammered City 5-2 at the start of the season. City also have a Champions League fixture on Tuesday, and given how far ahead they are at the top of the table they could easily have one eye on that fixture already.

So while the task of beating Man City is always very tough, Leicester do have a handful of things in their favour here. They put on a show when beating Sheffield United 5-0 prior to the International break and they also put United to the sword in a 3-1 win. Of course, beating Man City is a totally different level. In my view, I feel the 1.61 on City is ten ticks too short. City could easily outclass Leicester, but the 1.61 is much too short given how well Leicester have played this season and I would suggest City are very close to focusing on the Champions League given their lead. While the City lay is tempting, and I couldn’t put anyone off it, over 2.5 goals looking cracking value at 2.0. I’m surprised to see a price like that between these two teams. Leicester won’t mind an open game and while City have been good at the back lately, Leicester have been creating enough to score.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.0 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleimnc

MATCH STATS

  • Leicester are looking to complete their first league double over Manchester City since the 1986-87 season, following their 5-2 win at the Etihad earlier this season.
  • Manchester City have alternated between defeat (2) and victory (2) in their last four Premier League away games against Leicester, winning this exact fixture 1-0 last season.
  • Leicester City won the reverse of this fixture 5-2 in September – no team has ever scored six league goals in a single season against a side managed by Pep Guardiola before.
  • Leicester could become just the fourth team to complete a league double over a side managed by Pep Guardiola, after Chelsea in 2016-17 and Manchester United and Wolves last season.
  • Manchester City have conceded just eight away goals in the Premier League this season, with Tottenham in November the only side to score more than once at home to the Citizens this term (2-0). Man City have won each of their last eight away league games by an aggregate score of 22-3.
  • Leicester are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the fourth time this season, and first since January. However, the Foxes have lost 13 of their last 15 Premier League meetings against the league leaders (D2) since winning 1-0 at Manchester United in January 1998.
  • Manchester City have won their last 14 away games in all competitions, extending the all-time record among teams in England’s top four tiers. The Citizens have also kept more clean sheets (27) and conceded fewer goals (26) in all competitions among all teams in Europe’s top five leagues.
  • Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored eight goals in nine Premier League games against Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, twice as many top-flight goals as any other player has netted against sides managed by the Spaniard. Two of Vardy’s three Premier League hat-tricks have come against Guardiola’s City, in December 2016 and in the reverse fixture at the Etihad this season.
  • Leicester striker Kelechi Iheanacho has scored five goals in his last three Premier League games, netting his first ever hat-trick in the competition against Sheffield United last time out. With six league goals this term, this is the Nigerian’s best goalscoring season in the Premier League since his maiden campaign with Man City in 2015-16 (8).
  • Man City’s Riyad Mahrez has been involved in 11 goals in his last 13 Premier League starts (8 goals, 3 assists). The Algerian has also been involved in four goals in his last three league appearances against former side Leicester City (2 goals, 2 assists).

ARSENAL V LIVERPOOL

8pm What a way to finish an excellent Saturday, especially after the International break when we have missed the Premier League! Unfortunately for both these sides, we don’t have the importance in this fixture that the sides would like. Liverpool started the day in 7th, with Arsenal in 9th and while Liverpool could still get into the Top Four they really have to start winning games. They managed to grind out a 1-0 win away to Wolves prior to the International break, but they looked average and Wolves actually created more. They need to bring some of their Champions League form to the Premier League if they’re going to get a Top Four spot!

It’s hard to see Liverpool turning around a five point gap on Chelsea, but if they are going to do it they need to win games like this. Arsenal have been very average this season, as their position in the table reflects. That being said, they were playing their best football of the season prior to the International break. That has come at a terrible time for Arsenal, but have been creating some excellent chances – even when they struggled against West Ham they came from 3-0 down for a draw, and in the 1-1 draw with Burnley they created an xG of 2.86 in a game they clearly deserved to win. The Liverpool price of 2.3 looks a little short, but I don’t fancy this Arsenal side either. I feel over 2.5 goals is the bet to have here, both sides like to play an open game and with Arsenal playing some good football lately I expect a lot of goals.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.81 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarslvr

MATCH STATS

  • Arsenal won this exact fixture 2-1 last season and are looking to beat Liverpool in consecutive home league games for the first time since April 2015.
  • Liverpool have won just two of their last 20 Premier League away games against Arsenal (D9 L9), winning 2-0 in August 2011 and 4-3 in August 2016.
  • No fixture in Premier League history has seen more goals scored than Arsenal vs Liverpool (166). 94 of these goals have been scored by Liverpool, the most goals the Gunners have shipped against a single opponent in the competition.
  • Arsenal vs Liverpool has seen more hat-tricks scored than any other Premier League fixture (6), with Thierry Henry and Andrey Arshavin scoring for Arsenal, and Robbie Fowler (x2), Peter Crouch and Roberto Firmino netting for Liverpool.
  • Arsenal have lost just one of their last eight home Premier League games (W4 D3), though they haven’t won back-to-back home league games since their first two this season against West Ham and Sheffield United.
  • Liverpool have won four of their five Premier League games in London this season (D1) – they last won more in the capital in a single campaign back in 1989-90 (5).
  • Arsenal haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last eight Premier League matches, last having a longer run without one in December 2019 (9). The Gunners have conceded the first goal in four of their last five league games, but have come back to win two of those games (D1 L1).
  • Each of Liverpool’s last five Premier League victories have come away from home. In their league history, only once have they had a longer such run, with each of their six victories between February and August 1955 all coming on the road.
  • Alexandre Lacazette has scored in each of Arsenal’s last two Premier League games against Liverpool – the last player to score in three consecutive league games against the Reds for the Gunners was Robert Pires between January 2003 and April 2004.
  • Five of Sadio Mané’s seven Premier League goals for Liverpool this season have come away from home, with four of those coming in London – it’s his only Premier League campaign so far where he’s scored more away goals than home. The Senegalese has also scored seven Premier League goals against Arsenal, only netting more against Crystal Palace (10).

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