THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s three Premier League games with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The action starts at 12.30pm with MAN CITY v LEEDS.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
MANCHESTER CITY V LEEDS
12.30pm We have a shorter than usual Premier League fixture list on Saturday but we have a fascinating day ahead nonetheless, plus it allows us to focus on El Clasico in La Liga tonight too. All football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today too, so let’s find some great value winners. We start the day with Champions Elect Manchester City hosting Leeds in what should be an excellent game to watch. Leeds have the comfort of having nothing to lose here given the position in the table, and surely they can have a good go at City. After winning against Leicester, City moved 14 points ahead at the top of the table and with a massive Champions League game midweek, they could easily be forgiven for having one eye on that fixture.
We have an interesting market too, as City look a little short at 1.32. It’s hard to go against City given how good they have been this season, but this could be a good time to have a small lay. Leeds have had a pretty easy fixture list recently as they have played Fulham and Sheffield United, they came away with two 2-1 wins, but they were lucky to beat Fulham in fairness. City have been excellent but they still needed a late goal to beat Dortmund during the week. Given their lead in the Premier League, I can see Guardiola resting some players here for a massive game midweek – especially with Dortmund getting an away goal too. It doesn’t make much sense for City to go all out for a win here, but I fully respect the fact that they could easily outclass Leeds. I can see Leeds attacking City, and they have been excellent going forward this season so I feel City are worth a small lay at the odds.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Manchester City to beat Leeds at 1.32 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmcilee
MATCH STATS
- Manchester City are set to host Leeds for a match for the first time since February 2013, a 4-0 win in the FA Cup. In the Premier League, the sides have only met at the Etihad once, a 1-1 draw in December 2003.
- Leeds have only won one of their seven away Premier League matches against Man City (D4 L2), a 4-0 victory at Maine Road in January 2001 with goals from Eirik Bakke, Lee Bowyer and a Robbie Keane brace.
- Leeds enjoyed 52% possession in the 1-1 draw with Man City earlier this season – no team has ever had more possession in both top-flight league meetings in a season with a side managed by Pep Guardiola across his spells with Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Man City.
- Leeds United have won only one of their 19 Premier League games against the side starting the day top of the table (D9 L9), failing to win each of their last eight such matches since beating Middlesbrough in August 2000 (2-1).
- Manchester City have gone unbeaten in each of their last 41 Premier League games against newly promoted sides at the Etihad Stadium (W36 D5), since a 0-2 loss to Reading in February 2007 under Stuart Pearce.
- Manchester City have kept a league-high 17 clean sheets in the Premier League this season, just three behind their best tally of shutouts in a Premier League campaign (20 in 2018-19). Indeed, since the turn of the year, the Citizens have kept a clean sheet in 10 of their 17 league games, conceding just nine goals in the process (W16 L1).
- Leeds United’s total of 42 points from 30 Premier League games is their best tally at this stage of a top-flight campaign since 2001-02 (51 pts), when they finished fifth. Indeed, their total of 47 goals is their highest return at this stage of a Premier League campaign since 1999-00 (49).
- Man City boss Pep Guardiola has registered at least one win over 75 of the 77 opponents he has faced in his top-flight league managerial career – Leeds are one of the two he hasn’t beaten (P1 D1), along with Middlesbrough (P2 D2).
- Man City striker Sergio Agüero netted a brace in his only previous appearance against Leeds, a 4-0 win in the FA Cup in February 2013. It would be his first Premier League game against the Whites, with the Argentinian scoring against 32 of the 33 previous opponents he’s faced, failing only against Bolton Wanderers.
- No Leeds player has created more chances (55) or provided more assists (6) in the Premier League this season than Raphinha. The winger has been directly involved in 12 Premier League goals in 2020-21 (6 goals, 6 assists), only four Brazilians have registered more goal involvements in their first Premier League season: Felipe Anderson (13 in 2018-19), Roberto Firmino (17 in 2015-16), Elano (17 in 2007-08) and Robinho (19 in 2008-09).
LIVERPOOL V ASTON VILLA
3pm Liverpool are another side who have a huge Champions League midweek as they have to try and comeback from 3-1 down against Real Madrid after the first leg on Tuesday. While Man City can afford to take their eye off the ball today, Liverpool have to keep winning if they want to see Champions League football next season. They start the weekend in 7th, however they are only three points behind West Ham in 4th. It’s likely they will get knocked out of the Champions League midweek unless they can produce a wonderful comeback, so they have to focus on getting into the Top Four. Aston Villa haven’t been playing as good as they were at the start of the season, but we all know how poor Liverpool have been at home recently!
It’s hard to pin-point where Liverpool have gone wrong this season, but they defended terribly against Real Madrid midweek. They have dropped a lot of points against sides in the bottom half of the table this season, and they will have bad memories of this fixture after conceding seven against Villa earlier in the season! I fully take on board Villa have been playing their best lately, the draws against Newcastle and Wolves were particularly poor, however Liverpool look a little short here at 1.59. They have had a lot of issues at the back this season, but they aren’t creating much going forward either. Their recent record at Anfield is very poor and with a Champions League game midweek too they have a lot going on. I’d have them much bigger than 1.59, and they are worth laying.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Aston Villa at 1.59 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQlivavl
MATCH STATS
- Liverpool have won their last two home Premier League meetings with Aston Villa, last winning more consecutively between 2003-04 and 2006-07 (four in a row).
- Following their 7-2 win earlier in the campaign, Aston Villa are looking to complete a Premier League double over Liverpool for the first time since the inaugural season in 1992-93 under Ron Atkinson.
- Liverpool have lost six home Premier League games against Aston Villa, only losing more against Manchester United (12) and Chelsea (7).
- Aston Villa have already netted seven league goals against Liverpool this season, with only Man City in 2017-18 ever scoring more against the Reds in a single Premier League season (8). The last team to score as many as 10 goals against Liverpool in a top-flight season was Arsenal in 1952-53 (10).
- Liverpool have lost their last six home Premier League matches, with Huddersfield Town the last team to lose seven in a row back in February 2019. Prior to this season, the highest a team has finished in a top-flight season when they’ve lost six or more home games in a row is ninth, achieved by Sunderland in 1946-47.
- Aston Villa have only won one of their last 27 top-flight away games against the reigning champions (D6 L20), winning 1-0 against Man Utd at Old Trafford in December 2009. The last reigning champions Villa did the league double over was Arsenal in 1989-90.
- No side has kept more away clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Aston Villa (8), while they have never kept more than eight shutouts on the road in a single top-flight campaign.
- Sadio Mané has scored eight goals in seven appearances in all competitions against Aston Villa across spells with Southampton and Liverpool, netting in all three games for the Reds against Villa (four goals in total).
- After a run of 32 shots without a Premier League goal since July, Aston Villa forward Trézéguet has found the net with two of his last three attempts in the competition.
- Liverpool’s Diogo Jota has scored more Premier League goals as a substitute this season than any other player (4), while only Christian Benteke (6 in 2015-16) has scored more substitute goals for Liverpool in a Premier League campaign than the Portuguese forward.
CRYSTAL PALACE V CHELSEA
5.30pm Another massive game for Chelsea. Unlike Liverpool, they find themselves in a good position in the Champions League after winning 2-0 against Porto. That was a nice bounce back after losing 5-2 against West Brom last weekend, and that has thrown the race for the Top Four wide open. Chelsea will have one eye on the Liverpool result earlier in the day, as a win would put them above Chelsea as well as West Ham. Despite Crystal Palace getting some decent results recently, I’m very happy to take the 1.58 on Chelsea here. Palace were exceptionally lucky to get a 1-1 draw with Everton last weekend, as the game finished 2.83 to 0.77 to Everton on xG. In fairness to Palace, they have been good at grinding out results but Chelsea will outclass them this evening.
While Palace have been picking up results recently, their performances have been very poor. As I said above, they conceded an xG of 2.83 against Everton – even worse they conceded an xG of 3.03 against Brighton recently in a game they somehow won 2-1. They very rarely create an xG of over 1 and while I respect the fact that they can grind out results and they can possibly stop Chelsea from playing good football – I feel that’s all they can do. However, looking at the xG figures it would be a massive surprise if Palace didn’t give away a host of chances and this Chelsea side can take full advantage. I’d have Chelsea shorter than 1.5 here, and at 1.58 with 0% Commission they are the best bet of the day.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Chelsea to beat Crystal Palace at 1.58 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcrychl
MATCH STATS
- Crystal Palace have lost their last six Premier League matches against Chelsea, their worst-ever losing run against the Blues in league football.
- Chelsea have won eight of their last 10 away Premier League matches against Crystal Palace (L2), with those eight wins coming under seven different managers (Hoddle, Gullit, Mourinho x2, Hiddink, Conte, Sarri & Lampard).
- None of the last 19 Premier League meetings between Crystal Palace and Chelsea have ended as a draw – only Newcastle vs Spurs between August 1999 and December 2010 has had a longer run of games without a drawn game in the competition (21).
- Chelsea have won 1.82 points-per-game in Premier League London derbies, the best ratio amongst sides from the capital. In contrast, only Fulham (0.81) have averaged fewer points-per-game in such matches than Crystal Palace (0.93).
- Chelsea are yet to lose on the road under Thomas Tuchel in the Premier League (W3 D2) – the only Blues manager to avoid defeat in his first six away games in the competition was Felipe Scolari (unbeaten in first 10).
- Crystal Palace have kept five clean sheets in the Premier League at Selhurst Park since the turn of the year, two more than in the entirety of 2020 (3). The Eagles will be looking to keep four consecutive home shutouts in the top-flight for the first time since April 1992 (5).
- Crystal Palace manager Roy Hodgson has lost six consecutive Premier League matches against Chelsea. The only opponent he has lost seven consecutive games against as a manager in the competition is Tottenham (between November 2011 – September 2019).
- Crystal Palace striker Christian Benteke has been directly involved in eight goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances against Chelsea (6 goals, 2 assists). He has scored in three home games against them and is yet to end on the winning side (D1 L2), with only Matt Le Tissier vs Nottingham Forest (five) and Jermain Defoe vs Man Utd (four) scoring in more home games against a team without ending on the winning side.
- Chelsea’s third and fourth goals against Crystal Palace in a 4-0 win earlier this season were penalties by Jorginho – prior to this, only one of the 63 goals in Premier League fixtures between the sides had been a penalty. The last player to score three pens against an opponent in a season was Graham Alexander against Hull in 2009-10.
- Timo Werner has been directly involved in more Premier League goals this season than any other Chelsea player (11 – 5 goals, 6 assists). However, the German striker has scored with just one of his last 42 shots in the competition, netting against Newcastle in February.
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