THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games between NEWCASTLE v WEST HAM and WOLVES v SHEFFIELD UNITED with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
NEWCASTLE V WEST HAM
12.30pm We have a shortened Premier League fixture list due to the FA Cup Semi-Finals this weekend but we have two fascinating markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and all football bets are 0% Commission today too! We start the day with Newcastle hosting West Ham, and you have to feel this is an excellent chance for West Ham to really put the pressure on the likes of Leicester, Chelsea and Liverpool. Leicester and Chelsea are in action in the FA Cup and Liverpool don’t play until Monday – a win for the Hammers would see them go into third and leave Liverpool six points behind them. It must be exciting times for the club as they wouldn’t have imagined they would get Champions League football – it will be a nervy run-in for them.
West Ham have been one of my favourite teams to back in the Premier League this season because of the incredible value they have offered. I feel we have more great value today as they look far too big at 2.16. They have been excellent this season and their place in the table reflects that; but they have got to where they are by creating a host of chances. You only have to look at their xG figures this season to see how good they are playing. Newcastle eased the pressure on themselves last weekend with three points, but that came against Burnley who have been playing badly. They still conceded an xG of 2.34 and that’s a very worrying figures given how much Burnley have struggled to create chances. West Ham will surely benefit from how poor Newcastle are at the back and I would have them odds on here. We landed a nice Max Bet on West Ham to beat Wolves recently and 2.7 and we can land another Max Bet on them here – 2.16 is far too big.
The Striker Says:
Five points win West Ham to beat Newcastle at 2.16 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewwhu
MATCH STATS
- Newcastle are looking to achieve their fifth Premier League double over West Ham (1993-94, 1994-95, 2010-11 and 2017-18), something they’ve only done as many times in the competition against Spurs.
- West Ham have won just two of their last 16 Premier League away games against Newcastle (D6 L8), winning 1-0 in November 2012 and 3-0 in December 2018.
- Since David Moyes returned to the club, West Ham are unbeaten in all 22 of their Premier League games against sides in the bottom half of the table (W14 D8). Meanwhile, Newcastle have won just four of their 23 games against sides in the top four since returning to the Premier League in 2017 (D2 L17).
- Newcastle’s win against Burnley last time out ended a run of seven Premier League games without a victory (D4 L3). The Magpies are looking to secure back-to-back league wins for only the second time this season (also in December).
- West Ham have scored three goals in each of their last three Premier League games – they last scored 3+ goals in four top-flight games in a row back in August/September 1928.
- West Ham have gone 3-0 ahead in each of their last three Premier League games – in the competition’s history, only Manchester United have scored the first three goals in four consecutive matches before, doing so twice in February 2010 and September 2011.
- Newcastle’s Callum Wilson has scored more Premier League goals against West Ham than he has vs any other side in the competition, netting eight goals in nine appearances against the Hammers.
- Jarrod Bowen has scored in each of his last three Premier League games for West Ham – he last scored in four consecutive league games in November 2019, in the Championship with Hull City. No West Ham player has been involved in more league goals than Bowen this season (12 – 8 goals, 4 assists).
- Newcastle’s Allan Saint-Maximin has been involved in five goals in his last six Premier League appearances (2 goals, 3 assists), as many as in his previous 19 in the competition. The Frenchman has exactly the same tally of goals (3) and assists (4) in 18 games this season as he got in 26 appearances last season.
- With eight goals in just nine Premier League games at West Ham this season, Jesse Lingard has equalled his best goal tally in a single top-flight campaign (also 8 in 33 apps in 2017-18).
WOLVES V SHEFFIELD UNITED
8.15pm We finish the day with Wolves hosting Sheffield United at the later time of 8-15pm as to not clash with the funeral of Prince Phillip. Many football fans might find this fixture a little dull and while it’s definitely not the most glamourous of fixtures, it is very interesting from a betting point of view. Sheffield United have been nailed to the bottom of the Premier League all season, but Wolves have been pretty poor this season. Wolves managed to get a win against Fulham, and as I said in my preview of that game you could see that win coming as their xG figures had been pretty good in defeat recently. For example they created an xG of 2.57 against West Ham, 1.29 against Liverpool which was higher than Liverpool and then 2.0 against Aston Villa. The Fulham game was scrappy but they grinded out a win.
You get the feeling that this game will be scrappy too, and while I’m happy to limit stakes here given it’s hard to trust Wolves this season – they are playing well enough at the moment to beat a poor Sheffield United side. Sheffield United have lost their last five in all competitions and you get the feeling they have given up on the season since losing to Chelsea in the FA Cup. Who could blame them really as some players will know they will change clubs when they go down etc. Their xG figures have been very poor recently – they are barely creating anything and that’s very different to the early part of the season when they were creating chances but still losing games. Even in their 1-0 win over Villa, they didn’t deserve to win as they gave away an xG of 2.19. It’s been a while since they created an xG of over 1 in a game and Wolves should out score them in a reasonably low quality game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Wolves to beat Sheffield United at 1.72 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwolshu
MATCH STATS
- Wolves are looking to secure their first league double over Sheffield United since the 2013-14 League One campaign, following their 2-0 win at Bramall Lane earlier this season.
- Sheffield United have won just one of their last 13 away league games against Wolves (D6 L6) and are winless in seven at Molineux since a 3-1 victory in October 2002.
- Wolves are looking to win consecutive Premier League games for just the third time this season. However, they’ve lost their last two home games in the competition, last losing three in a row at Molineux in November 2018.
- Sheffield United scored at least twice in two of their first three Premier League away games last season (2-2 v Chelsea, 2-0 v Everton). Since then, they’ve only scored twice in two of their 31 away league games, failing to score 16 times in that run.
- Sheffield United have won just four points from a possible 45 away from home in the Premier League this season (W1 D1 L13), with the Blades netting just seven times on the road this season.
- Sheffield United have scored a league-low 17 goals so far in the Premier League this season but have an expected goals (xG) total of 28.2, meaning they’ve scored roughly 11 goals fewer than expected. Only Fulham (12) have a bigger such difference this term.
- Sheffield United’s 25 league defeats this season is just one off their record number of defeats in a league season, with the Blades losing 26 times in both 1975-76 (out of 42 games) and 2010-11 (46 games).
- Wolves are averaging 11.8 shots-per-game, and just one goal-per-game in the Premier League this season – of their seven campaigns in the competition, they’ve only averaged lower for both in 2009-10 (11.5 shots, 0.8 goals).
- Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, only Liverpool (7) have scored more winning goals in the 90th minute or later than Wolves (5).
- After a run of 35 Premier League games without a goal or assist, Wolves’ Adama Traoré has either scored (1) or assisted (1) a goal in his last two appearances, netting a 90th minute winner against Fulham last time out.
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