THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games between LIVERPOOL v NEWCASTLE, WEST HAM v CHELSEA and SHEFFIELD UNITED v BRIGHTON with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

LIVERPOOL V NEWCASTLE

12.30pm A fantastic Super Saturday ahead in the Premier League with some massive games in the race for a Top Four finish! It’s fair to say that by the end of today we should have a good idea who will be getting Champions League football next season, and we can also enjoy 0% Commission on all football bets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today! We start the day with Liverpool hosting Newcastle is desperate need of a win as they start the weekend in 7th. After Leicester won on Thursday night it now seems certain they will finish in the Top Four, so that only leaves one spot between Liverpool, Spurs, West Ham and Chelsea. Liverpool start the day two points behind Chelsea and West Ham, however with the two of them playing later this is a good chance to get right back in the driving seat as we close in on the final day.

There’s bound to be drama on the final day, and there could easily be a lot of drama here. Newcastle found themselves under pressure in recent weeks at the bottom of the table, but they have put together two massive back-to-back wins and now they can enjoy the run-in. That isn’t ideal for Liverpool, as Newcastle can play with freedom and they have been scoring a lot lately. Liverpool look too short to me here at 1.28 as they haven’t been playing good football recently. I wouldn’t be a big fan of Newcastle, but I can respect the fact they have played well lately under pressure and scored goals. We landed our Liverpool lay midweek against Leeds and I feel a small Liverpool lay is a good value bet again here.

The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Newcastle at 1.28 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQlivnwc

MATCH STATS

  • Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 24 home league games against Newcastle (W20 D4) since a 0-2 loss in April 1994.
  • Newcastle’s goalless draw against Liverpool in the reverse fixture ended a run of five straight defeats against the Reds. However, the Magpies remain winless in their last eight league meetings with Liverpool (D3 L5) since a 2-0 home win in December 2015.
  • There have been 3.12 goals-per-game in Premier League meetings between Liverpool and Newcastle (159 goals in 51 games), the highest ratio of any of the 31 fixtures to have been played at least 50 times in the competition.
  • Newcastle have won just one of their 25 Premier League away games against reigning champions (D7 L17), losing the last five in a row by an aggregate score of 20-3 since beating Manchester United 1-0 in December 2013.
  • Liverpool have dropped 13 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, two more than they had across the last two campaigns combined (6 in 2018-19, 5 in 2019-20).
  • Newcastle United have won their last two Premier League games, as many as in their previous 19 (D6 L11). The Magpies last won three in a row in November 2018 under Rafael Benitez, while current manager Steve Bruce last registered three top-flight wins in a row in January 2009 with Wigan Athletic – this is Bruce’s 254th Premier League game since then.
  • Liverpool have conceded the first goal in each of their last seven home league games, though they did come back to win their last such match vs Aston Villa (L6). The last team to concede the first goal in eight consecutive Premier League home games was Sunderland between March-August 2008.
  • Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold has been involved in three goals in his last three Premier League appearances (1 goal, 2 assists), as many as in his previous 24 in the competition. He last scored or assisted a goal in four consecutive league games between April-August 2019 (6 assists across 5 consecutive games).
  • Joe Willock has scored three goals in nine Premier League appearances for Newcastle, having netted just once in 40 league games for Arsenal. Willock’s three goals have been worth five points to Newcastle, with only Callum Wilson’s goals more valuable to the Magpies this term (9).
  • Newcastle have won 37% of the games when Allan Saint-Maximin has played in the Premier League this season (7/19), compared to 15% without him (2/13).

WEST HAM V CHELSEA

5.30pm A massive game! I’m really looking forward to this one, and the pressure is really on in the race for a Top Four finish. It’s fair to say that both sides suffered big setbacks in their recent games, with West Ham losing 3-2 to Newcastle last weekend and Chelsea only drawing with Brighton. West Ham threw away the game against Newcastle with some terrible errors, including a reasonably early sending off. They still managed to get back to 2-2 after being 2-0 down at half-time but then went behind again. After that setback for West Ham, then Chelsea had a superb chance to take the upper hand and failed midweek. Both sides will have an eye on the Liverpool result earlier in the day, as Leicester went four points ahead of both these sides on Thursday night.

As always, it’s all about the odds for me and while I fully respect Chelsea might be able to outclass West Ham, I can’t agree with the odds here. The Hammers look excellent value to me at 5.1. They have been excellent going forward this season, and I know they made some huge errors last weekend against Newcastle, but perhaps it’s a sign of how good they are playing that they managed to come back to 2-2 from being 2-0 down at half-time with a man down too. My worry is that they have conceded a lot of goals lately, and maybe the Chelsea lay is a better option and I would consider that, but the 5.1 is simply too big to ignore. Chelsea haven’t exactly been creating chances for fun lately, and they have also been giving away chances so I expect West Ham to make their odds look far too big here.

The Striker Says:
Two points win West Ham to beat Chelsea at 5.1 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwhuche

MATCH STATS

  • West Ham have won three of their last five home league games against Chelsea (D1 L1), as many as in their previous 14 against them. They last won back-to-back home league games against the Blues in May 2003.
  • Chelsea are looking to achieve their eighth Premier League double over West Ham, something they’ve only managed as many times in the competition against Man City (10), Sunderland (8) and Tottenham (8).
  • West Ham are unbeaten in their last five home Premier League London derbies (W3 D2), last having a longer such run between January 2006-January 2007 (6 games).
  • Only Manchester City (38) have won more points in Premier League home games this season than West Ham (31). Indeed, West Ham have won nine of their 16 home league games this season (D4 L3), last reaching double figures in a top-flight campaign back in 2001-02 (12).
  • Both teams have scored at least twice in each of West Ham’s last four Premier League games – the last time that happened in five games in a row for a club in the top-flight was the Hammers themselves in March/April 2016, with that run including a 2-2 draw with Chelsea.
  • Chelsea are unbeaten in all nine of their away games under Thomas Tuchel in all competitions (W7 D2) – no manager has ever remained unbeaten in their first 10 on the road in charge of the Blues.
  • West Ham manager David Moyes’ last four Premier League wins against Chelsea have seen a different manager in the opposite dugout – Carlo Ancelotti (May 2011), André Villas-Boas (February 2012), Antonio Conte (December 2017) and Frank Lampard (July 2020).
  • West Ham have had a player score a goal and an own goal in two of their last four Premier League matches (Tomas Soucek vs Arsenal, Issa Diop vs Newcastle). Before this, just two players had done so in the Hammers’ 948 Premier League games (Frank Lampard v Leicester Nov 1998 and Carlton Cole v Fulham May 2010).
  • West Ham’s Jesse Lingard has scored in each of his last five Premier League appearances for the Hammers, with only Diafra Sakho ever scoring in six in a row for the club, doing so in September/October 2014.
  • Jesse Lingard has been involved in 12 Premier League goals in his first 10 appearances for West Ham (9 goals, 3 assists). Only three players have had a hand in more goals in their first 10 appearances for a club – Mick Quinn at Coventry City, Les Ferdinand at Newcastle United and Bruno Fernandes at Manchester United (all 13).

SHEFFIELD UNITED V BRIGHTON

8pm We end the day with Sheffield United taking on Brighton and while most football fans won’t look forward to this fixture, I have my most confident bet of the day here. Brighton look massive at 1.8 to beat a very poor Sheffield United side. Sheffield United were confirmed as relegated after losing to Wolves this week but the writing has been on the wall for some time. It’s actually quite a remarkable fall from grace – think back to before lockdown last season and they were pushing for a Europa League spot! They came back from lockdown a different team, finished the season in an ambulance and they were pretty poor this season. They started off playing well but losing, and they never had any confidence since December.

Brighton might be towards the bottom of the table, but they play like one of the better sides in the Premier League. They create a huge volume of chances and while they have been held to only one goal in their last three games – those games came against Manchester United, Everton and Chelsea – now against a side who leak goals for fun they should enjoy themselves. It’s hard to see how Sheffield United can stop Brighton scoring given the way they have played lately. If you look at their xG figures, they have been giving away chances for fun and they just look like they have given up on their season since losing in the FA Cup. Granted even before that, they conceded an xG of 4.36 to Leicester! Brighton look great value at 1.8 and they are a very confident bet.

The Striker Says:
Four points win Brighton to beat Sheffield United at 1.8 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQshubha

MATCH STATS

  • Sheffield United have lost just one of their last 11 league games against Brighton (W6 D4), with the Blades scoring at least once in every game in this run.
  • Brighton haven’t won an away league game against Sheffield United since January 2005 (2-1), though this will be just their third visit to Bramall Lane since then (1-3 in January 2006, 1-1 in February 2020).
  • Brighton have won just four of their 24 Premier League games against sides in the relegation zone (17%) – the lowest win rate of any club in the competition (min. 10 such games).
  • As well as being the lowest scoring side in the Premier League this season (17), Sheffield United have failed to score in the most different games (18) and kept the fewest clean sheets (2) in the competition this term.
  • Sheffield United’s 26 defeats this season is already the joint-most they’ve suffered in a single league campaign, while their 12 home defeats is the outright most they’ve ever had in a season.
  • Sheffield United have suffered 16 one-goal defeats in the Premier League this season, the most in a top-flight season since Ipswich Town in 1985-86 (also 16). The last team to have more were Crystal Palace in 1980-81 (18).
  • Sheffield United have lost all 11 of their Premier League games played on Saturdays this season – only Sunderland have had a longer losing streak on a specific weekday in the competition’s history, losing 16 Saturday games in a row between January 2003-September 2005.
  • Paul Heckingbottom has lost all four of his Premier League games in charge of Sheffield United so far – the last manager to lose his first five in the Premier League was Scott Parker in April 2019 with Fulham.
  • Sheffield United boss Paul Heckingbottom won six of his first eight top-flight matches as a manager when taking over at Hibernian in February 2019 (D2). Since then, he’s won just one of his 20 matches in top-flight football (D8 L11).
  • David McGoldrick is Sheffield United’s top scorer in the Premier League this season with six goals, accounting for 35% of the Blades’ total this term. Only Fulham and Wolves have lower scoring top scorers in the competition this season (5).