SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games starting with the 12.30pm KO between WOLVES and BRENTFORD. All previews include a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
WOLVES V BRENTFORD
12.30pm We have another bumper day of action on Saturday in the Premier League, and all football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have some massive favourites today, but we also have some fascinating markets. We start the day with Wolves hosting Brentford and I’m sure there will be some big opinions on the Wolves price at 1.97. Both sides had very different fortune last weekend as Wolves recorded their first win of the season and Brentford recorded their first loss. That win was coming for Wolves however as they have been fantastic without winning. They have recorded xG figures of 1.66, 1.82, 2.55 and 2.53 now. They had a tough fixture list having had to play Leicester, Spurs and Man United but they were exceptionally unlucky to lose all three games 1-0.
Brentford have made a very bright start to their Premier League campaign, and based off what I have seen so far I would be reasonably confident that they will stay up this season. They were unlucky to lose an incredibly tight game last weekend against Brighton. So far it seems that they will keep games very tight, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see plenty of football punters laying Wolves here at odds on because of that. Brentford have been rock solid at the back – they have only conceded xG figures of 1.19, 0.62, 0.84 and 0.17. That’s a pretty impressive start to the Premier League. I have to say I would lean towards the Wolves win here because they have been excellent, but under 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 1.6 – neither side play an open game and we should see unders collect to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWolbre
MATCH STATS
● Wolves have won three of their last four league games against Brentford (D1), winning 3-0 at Molineux in their last such meeting in January 2018.
● Brentford have won just one of their five away league games against Wolves in the 21st century (D1 L3), winning 2-0 in a Championship match in October 2015.
● None of the 10 top-flight meetings between Wolves and Brentford have been draws (5 wins each), with Brentford winning home and away in the last campaign in which the sides met in the top tier (1946-47).
● Since their return to the top-flight in 2018-19, Wolves have won six of their eight home league games against promoted sides, drawing with Sheffield United in 2019-20 and losing to West Bromwich Albion last season.
● Wolves’ 2-0 win at Watford last time out ended a run of six straight league defeats. However, Wolves have lost each of their last three home league games, last having a longer run of league losses at Molineux in October/November 2016 (4).
● Only Norwich (8) have had fewer shots on target in the Premier League this season than Brentford (9), with the Bees managing just one effort on target last time out against Brighton. However, at the other end of the pitch, only Manchester City (2.2) have a lower expected goals against number than Brentford (2.7).
● Wolves are averaging 17.8 shots per game and five shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, both their highest numbers in a single campaign in the competition.
● Brentford have conceded just twice in their four Premier League games so far – only one of the 49 other teams to play in the competition have conceded just two goals in their first five games in the competition; Everton in 1992-93.
● Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez has had more shots without scoring than any other player in the Premier League so far this season (13), while teammate Trincão has had the most attempts on target without finding the net so far (7).
● Hwang Hee-Chan came off the bench to score on his Premier League debut for Wolves last time out – no player has ever scored in both of their first two appearances for the club in the competition.
BURNLEY V ARSENAL
3pm We have some very interesting games at 3pm, and we start with Burnley hosting Arsenal. Burnley find themselves under a little bit of pressure sitting in the bottom three even so early in the season; they just need a win to settle into the season but you’d have to imagine they will be involved in a relegation battle. I have to say I enjoyed all the relegation six point banter for Arsenal last weekend, and you could argue the same could be applied to this game with Arsenal only two points ahead of Burnley! Arsenal put in an excellent performance last weekend against Norwich but we have seen the same thing happen with Arsenal time and time again. They always look good against the weaker sides at home, and then they always struggle when their backs are against the wall away from home.
This is a tricky away tie on paper, and Arsenal tend to struggle in these type of games. Burnley will know that, and they will be pressing Arsenal all day long. Arsenal don’t have the class in their squad anymore to create moments of magic to get out of these tricky situations, and I’m happy to have a small lay on them at 2.1. It’s almost ironic that they hounded out Wenger for not having a backbone in the side away for home, but they have yet to solve that issue after years and years of change! This will actually be a good game to see where Arsenal are at going forward – I feel they will come up short.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Burnley at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBurars
MATCH STATS
● After a run of 10 consecutive league defeats against Arsenal, Burnley are now unbeaten in their last three against the Gunners (W1 D2).
● Arsenal are unbeaten in their last nine away league games against Burnley (W4 D5), last tasting defeat at Turf Moor in December 1973 (1-2).
● Burnley are winless in their last 12 home league games (D6 L6), their longest run without a victory at Turf Moor in their league history.
● Burnley haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last seven Premier League games, losing six of these (D1) and scoring just three goals in the process.
● Arsenal had 30 shots in their 1-0 victory against Norwich last time out, more than they’d managed in their first three Premier League games this season combined (29).
● Arsenal have won 14 of their last 16 Premier League games when scoring the first goal (D1 L1), though one of those failures was in a 1-1 draw at Burnley last season. However, when conceding first, the Gunners have lost 15 of their last 21 league matches (W3 D3), including each of the last four in a row.
● Arsenal have conceded more first-half goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (6). Meanwhile, 88% of the goals Burnley have conceded have come in the second half (7/8).
● Burnley have dropped eight points from winning positions in the Premier League so far this season, more than any other side. Indeed, the Clarets have scored first in three of their four games so far, but have failed to win any of them (D1 L2).
● Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored eight goals in his seven Premier League appearances against Burnley – only against Hamburg (9) has he scored more league goals in his top-flight career.
● Aaron Ramsdale has kept a clean sheet in both of his appearances for Arsenal in all competitions so far (6-0 vs West Brom, 1-0 vs Norwich). The last goalkeeper to record a clean sheet in each of their first three starts for the Gunners was Wojciech Szczesny, whose first three games all came in the League Cup between 2009 and 2010.
LIVERPOOL V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Next we have two massive home favourites, and we start with Liverpool hosting Crystal Palace. Liverpool have started the season in superb form, and as Gary Neville remarked on Sky Sports, if they can keep the main starting XI fit they are the best side in the Premier League. I believe that is true, however they run into massive problems if someone gets injured. They just don’t have the strength in depth like the others in the Top Four. That’s why they are only third in the Outright betting, but they absolutely bossed the Chelsea game prior to the International Break and I would have them shorter than Chelsea. The game might have finished 1-1, but Liverpool created an xG of 3.35. They cruised to a 3-0 win last weekend against Leeds, and now they have recorded xG figures of 2.03, 2.75, 3.35 and 4.57 in their first four Premier League games. Impressive.
It’s fair to say Crystal Palace would have surprised more than a few football fans when beating Spurs 3-0 last weekend. As I noted when laying Spurs, we knew they were playing very poorly but getting results and a loss like that was coming. I kept stakes low because I wasn’t fully expecting it to come against Crystal Palace, I just laid Spurs because I felt they shouldn’t be odds on. Crystal Palace dominated the game creating an xG of 2.88 to 0.10 in one of the most one sided games last weekend! This fixture will bring them back down to earth however, as they had been playing average football up until then. With home advantage and playing superb football, Liverpool should cover the handicap here. The 1.63 -1.5 goals is worth backing.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Crystal Palace at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLivcry
MATCH STATS
● Liverpool have won their last eight Premier League games against Crystal Palace, scoring 24 goals and conceding just five.
● After winning three consecutive Premier League away games against Liverpool between 2014-15 and 2016-17, Crystal Palace have lost each of their last four visits to Anfield in the competition.
● Liverpool are on the longest current league unbeaten run in the top four tiers of English football, going 14 league games without defeat since a 1-0 home loss against Fulham in March (W11 D3).
● Crystal Palace earned their first Premier League win of the season against Tottenham last time out. So far under Patrick Vieira this term, the average starting place of the Eagles’ opponents in the Premier League has been 3rd, with Liverpool also starting the day of this match in third position in the table.
● Liverpool have had more shots than any other Premier League side this season (100). Their 30 attempts against Leeds last time out brought up their 100, making them just the second side since 2003-04 to have 100+ shots in their first four games of a season, after Chelsea in 2009-10 (109).
● Liverpool’s Sadio Mané has scored in each of his last eight Premier League appearances against Crystal Palace – no player has ever scored in nine consecutive games against a single opponent in the competition.
● Liverpool defender Trent Alexander-Arnold has created more chances than any other player in the Premier League so far this season (20), with a league-high four of these also being big chances. He’s created at least five chances in each of his last three Premier League appearances – since 2003-04, only three players have ever done so in four or more consecutive appearances in the division: Mesut Özil (November 2015), Emiliano Buendía (December 2019) and Kevin De Bruyne (September 2020).
● Odsonne Édouard has been directly involved in 21 goals in his last 24 league appearances (17 goals, 4 assists), netting twice on his Crystal Palace debut last time out.
● Crystal Palace striker Christian Benteke has scored five goals in four Premier League games at Anfield as an opposing player, more than he did in 13 games at the ground when playing for the Reds (4). Only Andrew Cole (8) has ever scored more goals as a visiting player against Liverpool in the competition.
● Odsonne Édouard scored twice from the bench on his Premier League debut for Crystal Palace last time out. The only player to score in each of their first two Premier League appearances for the Eagles is Bakary Sako in August 2015.
MANCHESTER CITY V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm Next we have the shortest price of the day as Manchester City host Southampton. I have to say Southampton have started the season reasonably good form – they are playing solid football and while they obviously have limited ability, teams will have to work hard to beat them. It’s hard to see them stopping an in-form Manchester City side however who put six goals past RB Leipzig in the Champions League midweek. City have started the season on fire – they have created xG figures of 2.41, 2.51, 4.22, 3.02 and 2.79. Those are just incredible figures – you could say they haven’t been fully tested by a top side yet, but that doesn’t apply to Southampton either. I can see why they are trading 1.17!
Without much value in the match odds market, this game is going to be about the side markets. I feel Southampton can keep the score line respectable here as I said above, they have been playing solid football. They created an xG of 3.42 away to Newcastle, and then kept West Ham down to an xG of 0.74 last weekend. They were lucky to draw against Manchester United, but they grinded the game out under a lot of pressure. Any Other Home Win (Manchester City to score four or more and win) is trading 2.86 in the Correct Score market and I’m happy to lay that price. City win for me, but Southampton keep the score line respectable.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Any Other Home Win at 2.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMcisou
MATCH STATS
● Manchester City have won eight of their last nine Premier League meetings with Southampton, with the exception being a 1-0 defeat at St Mary’s in July 2020.
● After winning three consecutive away league games against Man City between March 2001and April 2004, Southampton have lost nine of their last 10 visits to Etihad (D1). Saints have only failed to score in one of their last 16 away league games against the Citizens, but also haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 11.
● Man City have won each of their last three home Premier League games by a 5-0 scoreline – only two top-flight teams have won four consecutive home matches by a 5+ goal margin (Everton in 1931 and Aston Villa in 1899).
● Southampton are winless in their last six Premier League games (D3 L3), drawing each of the last three in a row. The last time Saints had four consecutive draws in the top-flight was in March 2002.
● None of Manchester City’s last 30 Premier League games has ended in a draw, with the Citizens winning 25 and losing five since a 1-1 draw against West Brom last December. Only once before have they had a longer run without a draw in their league history, going 31 games between October 2018 and August 2019.
● Manchester City have faced just four shots on target in the Premier League this season, with three of those coming in their opening match against Tottenham.
● Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been directly involved in more Premier League goals against Southampton than he has any other opponent in the competition (11 – 4 goals, 7 assists). The Belgian averages a goal or assist every 63 minutes against Saints.
● New signing Jack Grealish has been directly involved in more of Manchester City’s shots than any other player in the Premier League this season (21 – 8 shots, 13 chances created), while across the whole division, only Trent Alexander-Arnold (20) has created more chances for teammates than the England midfielder (13).
● Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has scored in his last two away league games against Man City, doing so in November 2019 and March 2021. The last player to score in three consecutive Premier League away games against Man City was Tim Cahill, doing so between 2008 and 2010.
● Man City’s Raheem Sterling is three goals away from scoring 100 in the Premier League. He has been directly involved in 11 Premier League goals against Southampton (7 goals, 4 assists), only registering more against West Ham in the competition (14 – 8 goals, 6 assists).
NORWICH V WATFORD
3pm We finished the 3pm games with a massive tie for Norwich and Watford. Both these sides were always going to face a tough season after coming up from the Championship, and it looks certain they will be involved in the relegation battle this season. It’s very early days, but this is already a relegation six pointer and both sides will know that. Norwich are nailed to the bottom with four losses after four games, and they will have to work really hard to shake the tag of an “up and down” side because they went straight back down the last time they came up to the Premier League too. They can’t let morale dip because they have had a very tough fixture list – they’ve had to play Liverpool, Manchester City, Leicester and Arsenal – a lot of sides would lose four games with that fixture list, the most winnable probably Arsenal but then Arsenal had home advantage where they are more comfortable.
Watford made a bright start to their season with a 3-2 win over Aston Villa but they have lost their three games since. Their xG figures going forward are a little worrying – they created just 0.47, 0.67 and 0.26. It’s early days, but I feel they will have to grind out a lot of draws this season to stay up. They look very limited going forward – they will likely focus on keeping games as tight as possible this season, and I’m surprised to see under 2.5 goals trading as big as 1.75 here. Norwich are pretty limited themselves, and with this being such a big game for both sides I can’t see either attacking early. The draw is a tempting bet at 3.5 too, but unders looks the value call at 1.75.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNorwat
MATCH STATS
● Norwich have lost each of their last four league meetings with Watford, with both meetings in the Championship last season finishing 1-0 to the Hornets.
● Watford have won six of their last nine away league games against Norwich (L3), as many as they had in their previous 40 visits to the Canaries (W6 D10 L24).
● In the Premier League, Watford have won three of their four meetings with Norwich (L1), with the Hornets netting exactly two goals in all four games.
● Norwich have lost each of their last 14 Premier League games, scoring just twice and conceding 35 goals in this run.
● Watford have lost nine of their last 10 Premier League away games (D1), including each of the last eight in a row. Each of the Hornets’ last four away wins in the competition have been against sides eventually relegated that season (Cardiff and Huddersfield in 2018-19, Norwich and Bournemouth in 2019-20).
● Norwich have mustered just eight shots on target in the Premier League this season, fewer than any other side. Meanwhile, Watford have the lowest xG total in the competition this term (2.3).
● Norwich have had fewer high turnovers than any other Premier League side this season (15). However, five of these have led to a shot, the joint-highest ratio in the competition so far (33%).
● Norwich could become just the fifth team to lose each of their first five matches in a Premier League campaign, though two of the previous four did go on to avoid relegation – Southampton in 1998-99 (survived), Sunderland in 2005-06 (relegated), Portsmouth in 2009-10 (relegated) and Crystal Palace in 2017-18 (survived).
● In his English league career, Norwich striker Teemu Pukki has faced Watford more often without finding the net than any other side (4 games). He’s also ended on the losing side in each of those four appearances.
● Watford have committed more fouls than any other Premier League side this season (53), with striker Emmanuel Dennis the worst offender in the division (13). However, teammate Ismaila Sarr has been fouled more times than any other player so far this term (16).
ASTON VILLA V EVERTON
5.30pm We finished the day with another fascinating market as Aston Villa host Everton. I have to say I was very worried about how Aston Villa would play without Grealish this season but after losing their opening game against Watford they haven’t done too badly. They lack his creativity in midfield, but that was always going to be the case. They lacked a spark in the 1-1 draw with Brentford for example, and I can see that happening to them a lot this season. Even though they lost 3-0 to Chelsea last weekend, they actually didn’t play that badly however I feel the odds are all wrong here. I know we have an open market, but I still feel Aston Villa are way too short at 2.48. They are playing average football at the moment, and while that will be good enough against a lot of sides like Newcastle and Brentford, I can’t see it being good enough against Everton.
The Toffees have started the season in good form with three wins from four games and a 2-2 draw with Leeds. They aren’t playing massively impressive football, but they are getting the job done. They are creating enough to win games – for example their xG figures are 2.19, 1.86, 1.5 and 1.87. Not figures that would jump off the page, but we have to remember they aren’t at the same level as Liverpool for example! Villa aren’t creating the same volume of chances and against an in-form and confident Everton side I expect the home side to come up short. I’m surprised to see 2.48 as I feel that’s very short based on where Villa are at the moment and I’m happy to have a confident lay.
The Striker Says:
Four points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Everton at 2.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAsteve
MATCH STATS
● Aston Villa are unbeaten in four league games against Everton, winning two and drawing two. They’d only won two of their previous 15 Premier League meetings with the Toffees (D7 L6).
● Everton have won three of their last six away league games against Aston Villa (D1 L2), as many as they had in their previous 29 visits to Villa Park (W3 D12 L14).
● Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last four Premier League home games (W2 D2), last going longer without defeat at Villa Park in the competition in January 2015 under Paul Lambert (5 games).
● After a run that saw them keep 10 clean sheets in 17 Premier League games (14 goals conceded), Aston Villa have recorded just two shutouts in their last 16 in the competition (26 goals conceded). However, both of those clean sheets came in home games, including one against Everton in May.
● Everton have lost just two of their last 17 Premier League away games (W10 D5), with those defeats coming at Chelsea and Manchester City last season. The Toffees have recorded seven clean sheets in their last 10 away league games, as many as in their previous 33 on the road.
● Everton are unbeaten so far this season, winning three and drawing one of their four games. The Toffees were unbeaten in their first five league games last term, but have never done so in consecutive campaigns in their league history.
● Aston Villa striker Danny Ings has scored five Premier League goals against Everton – against no side has he scored more in the competition. The Toffees are the only club against which Ings has scored for all three of his previous top-flight clubs (Burnley, Liverpool and Southampton).
● Everton manager Rafael Benítez has lost just one of his 17 games against Aston Villa in all competitions (W10 D6), while the Spaniard has never lost against them at Villa Park (W4 D5).
● Andros Townsend has been involved in three goals in his four Premier League games for Everton this season (1 goal, 2 assists), as many as he had in his previous 31 for Crystal Palace in the competition (3 assists).
● Abdoulaye Doucouré has been involved in four goals in his four Premier League games for Everton this season (1 goal, 3 assists), just one fewer than he managed in 29 appearances last season (2 goals, 3 assists).
