SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games starting with the 12.30pm cracker at Stamford Bridge between CHELSEA v MAN CITY. All games include a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
CHELSEA V MANCHESTER CITY
12.30pm We start the Premier League weekend with a bang! What a fixture to begin with as Chelsea take on Man City on a brilliant day of action. All football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange!, and we have a fantastic day ahead. I know it’s still very early in the season, but I feel this fixture will give us an excellent guide as to whether or not Chelsea can challenge for the title this season. They might have come away from Anfield with a 1-1 draw against Liverpool, but they were totally outplayed and didn’t deserve the draw. Liverpool finished the game with an xG of 3.35 and although Chelsea have been impressive against average sides – and I would include Arsenal and Spurs on that list – this is the acid test for them – can they stop Man City with home advantage?
Although Man City are still my clear favourites, and I’m sure many peoples, for the title they already find themselves three points behind Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Untied at the top of the Premier League after they were held a 0-0 draw against Southampton last weekend. They obviously couldn’t cope with being down to ten men, and as I said before the game (not expecting Southampton to actually get a result) Southampton had to played reasonably OK and wouldn’t be a pushover. City started the game around 1.17 and money buyers got their fingers burnt. We have an exceptionally open market here with both sides trading around 2.8. I have to say, I’d much rather back Man City at the odds here – I know they have had setbacks this season, but you can see looking at the xG figures they are playing some impressive football. That Chelsea game at Liverpool does worry me about Chelsea, and City can win here in my opinion. 2.8 looks great value.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City to beat Chelsea at 2.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQChemci
MATCH STATS
● Chelsea have won their last three meetings with Man City in all competitions, in the FA Cup, Premier League and Champions League. They last had a longer winning run against the Citizens between December 2005 and March 2009 (8 games).
● Manchester City have won three of their last six Premier League away games against Chelsea (L3), more than they had in their previous 23 visits to Stamford Bridge in the top-flight (W2 D8 L13). The Citizens are looking to win back-to-back away top-flight games vs Chelsea for the first time since January 1955.
● None of the last 12 Premier League meetings between Chelsea and Manchester City have been drawn, with Chelsea winning five to City’s seven.
● Chelsea and Manchester City have the joint-best defensive records in the Premier League this season, with just one goal conceded each (also level with Liverpool). Meanwhile, the Blues have an xG against figure of 5.5, conceding over four goals fewer than would be expected based on the quality of chances faced – the best such difference in the division this term.
● Chelsea have kept 15 clean sheets in 24 Premier League games under Thomas Tuchel, more than any other side since the German took charge.
● Manchester City have failed to score in two of their five Premier League games this season, as many as they had in their previous 30 in the competition. They’ve not failed to score in as many as half of their first six games in a Premier League campaign since 2006-07.
● Excluding own goals, Chelsea have already had 10 different goalscorers in their five Premier League games this season. Only Arsenal in 2009-10 have played fewer games before reaching 10 different scorers in a single campaign in the competition (4).
● In his managerial career, Man City boss Pep Guardiola has lost more games against Chelsea than he has vs any other opponent in all competitions (8). Indeed, the Blues could become the first team to win four consecutive matches against the Spaniard.
● Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has scored in each of his last three Premier League appearances against Chelsea – only Craig Bellamy against Newcastle (between 2007 and 2011) has scored in four consecutive games against a specific club they’ve previously played for in the competition.
● Man City’s Jack Grealish has been pressured (closed down by opponent) with the ball more often than any other player in the Premier League this season (195).
MANCHESTER UNITED V ASTON VILLA
12.30pm We have two Premier League games at 12-30 today as Manchester United host Aston Villa at the same time. It’s a shame we can’t watch both games, as I’m sure everyone will be watching Chelsea v Man City! Everyone except Ronaldo fans of course, but Man Untied have turned into the Ronaldo show since he arrived. How could they not with him scoring all the time, and he will fancy his chance of scoring again against this Aston Villa side. Villa surprised me when beating Everton 3-0 last weekend, I know the xG figures had the game closer than the score line suggested but I was still very disappointed with Everton. For me Villa just haven’t been as good without Grealish – which is in fairness is to be expected; how can you replace a player like that. However, when I look at Villa now they just seem there for the taking.
Usually you would be a little worried about United going into games like this because they have made so many errors in these type of games since Ferguson left. I can see them improving this season however, and you can see looking at the xG figures they are quickly becoming a very impressive side. I feel if they can buy a defensive midfield, almost like Roy Keane (if ever that was possible!), their side would be complete and really challenge for the title. You could see there are still weaknesses there when they went a man down against Young Boys – they created nothing and you could almost feel it going wrong for them. I can’t see them being under that type of pressure here, with 11 men hopefully! United have created so much in the Premier League this season they are worth backing here 1.44 – I don’t like this Villa side, and this should be a smooth win for the home side.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester United to beat Aston Villa at 1.44 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMunast
MATCH STATS
● Manchester United have won 18 of their last 21 home league games against Aston Villa (D2 L1), failing to score on just one occasion in that run.
● Aston Villa have picked up just one win in their last 45 Premier League games against Manchester United (D11 L33) and are winless in their last 17 against them since a 1-0 win at Old Trafford in December 2009.
● In Premier League history, no side has won more games against an opponent than Manchester United’s 37 victories against Aston Villa.
● Since a goalless draw with Manchester City last December, Manchester United have scored in each of their last 15 Premier League home games (44 goals in total). However, the Red Devils have also conceded in each of their last seven league games at Old Trafford, last having a longer top-flight home run without a clean sheet in February 1972 (8 games).
● Manchester United are the highest scorers in the Premier League so far this season with 13 goals. With an expected goals total of eight, the Red Devils are also overperforming their xG more than any other side this season (5 goals more).
● Aston Villa have lost both of their Premier League away games this season, conceding three goals in each defeat. Indeed, the Villans have lost five of their last eight away league games (W2 D1), more than they had in their previous 15 on the road (W7 D4 L4).
● No side has had more direct attacks in the Premier League this season than Aston Villa (15). A direct attack is one that starts just inside a team’s own half, with at least 50% of movement towards the opposition goal that ends in a shot or touch in the opposition box.
● Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes has scored in all three of Premier League games against Aston Villa, with all three of his goals coming from the penalty spot. Only one player has scored more goals against an opponent with 100% of them being penalties in the competition – Troy Deeney against Man Utd (4).
● Since the start of February (when he joined West Ham on loan), only Kelechi Iheanacho (12) has scored more Premier League goals than Jesse Lingard (11). Lingard is looking to score in three consecutive league games for Man Utd for the first time.
● Man Utd’s Cristiano Ronaldo has the shortest average shot distance from goal of the 23 players to have had at least 10 open play shots in the Premier League this season (12.6 metres – excluding headers).
EVERTON V NORWICH
3pm We start the 3pm games with Everton hosting Norwich! Everton suffered their first loss of the season last weekend away to Aston Villa. I have to say that came as a surprise to me because they had been playing well. They lost 3-0 in the end, but the game was quite even on xG. That was still very disappointing, but they have an excellent chance of bouncing back with a win here against this Norwich side. There’s no getting away from the fact that Norwich are under pressure now. They did have a very tough start to the season – they had to play Liverpool, Manchester City, Leicester and Arsenal in their first four games, but then last weekend they lost 3-1 at home to Watford. I don’t think many doubted they would be bang in the relegation race this season, but there’s no doubt now and they are nailed to the bottom of the table.
Before losing 3-0 to Aston Villa, Everton were in very good form. They were creating enough chances to win games – their xG figures were 2.19, 1.86, 1.5 and 1.87 for example. They really should win here, and the 1.61 looks massive. I know Norwich have been playing slightly better than their results show, but I still don’t expect them to be able to live with a side like Everton. I have to say the 3-1 loss to Watford was very disappointing from a Norwich point of view, they had played OK against Liverpool and Leicester, but Watford deserved to win 3-1. Everton should outclass this Norwich side and the 1.61 is worth a confident bet, although not quite a Max Bet!
The Striker Says:
Four points win Everton to beat Norwich at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQEvenor
MATCH STATS
● Everton have only lost one of their last seven home league meetings with Norwich (W4 D2), though it was the last time the sides met at Goodison Park in November 2019 (0-2).
● After winning three of their first four Premier League meetings with Everton (D1), Norwich have won just two of their subsequent 14 against the Toffees in the competition (D6 L6).
● Everton have lost three of their last four home league games against sides starting the day bottom of the table (W1), including a defeat against Norwich in November 2019. The Toffees had only lost three of their previous 17 league matches at Goodison Park against bottom placed sides before this (W10 D4).
● Everton have won each of their last three home league games, last winning more consecutively at Goodison Park between March and September 2019 under Marco Silva (6).
● Norwich have earned just six points from their last 72 available away from home in the Premier League (W1 D3 L20), and are winless in 14 on the road since beating Everton 2-0 in November 2019.
● Everton are averaging 3.6 sequences of 10+ passes per match in the Premier League this season, with only Burnley (2.6) averaging fewer. Under Carlo Ancelotti last season, the Toffees were averaging 10.7 such sequences per game, ranking 10th overall in the competition.
● Norwich City boss Daniel Farke has lost his last 15 Premier League games – this is the longest losing run by a specific manager in English top-flight history.
● Norwich goalkeeper Tim Krul has been on the losing side in 99 of his 198 Premier League appearances. Only three players have ever suffered their first 100 defeats in fewer than 200 games in the competition – forward Steven Fletcher (185), defender Paul Robinson (192) and forward Matthew Jarvis (193).
● No player has scored more Premier League goals for Everton this season than new signing Demarai Gray, with his three goals coming from just three shots on target so far. Only in 2018-19 has Gray scored more goals in a single top-flight campaign (4).
● Over their last two Premier League seasons, Teemu Pukki has scored 46% of Norwich’s Premier League goals (13/28), netting both of the Canaries’ goals so far this campaign.
LEEDS V WEST HAM
3pm Next we have a very interesting fixture as Leeds host West Ham. It’s very early days in the season, but would it be fair to say both sides look to have gone backwards this season? In fairness, how could West Ham top last season! But Leeds have definitely started on the backfoot this season and they are still searching for their first win. They only have three points after six games, and they are just barely outside the relegation zone. After making big plans to jump from mid-table to challenging for European football, they could find themselves in a relegation battle. They are too good to go down, but if they don’t start firing going forward they won’t collect many points with the amount of chances they give away at the back. It was disappointing that they couldn’t beat Newcastle last Friday; again they just didn’t create as much as they did last season.
West Ham lost to Manchester United, but they played well in a very entertaining game. Their xG figures have also been lower recently – they only created 1.44 v Crystal Palace and 0.74 v Southampton which is worrying, but they played well against United in defeat. As Gary Neville remarked on Sky Sports recently, if you’re a striker you want to play Leeds. Perhaps that is what will be the difference here, as both sides are struggling a little going forward – Leeds will make more mistakes at the back and give away more chances. We have a very open market here as you would expect, but West Ham edge it for me in a very close game. This is a game for small stakes, but I like the Hammers at 2.56.
The Striker Says:
One point win West Ham to beat Leeds at 2.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeewhu
MATCH STATS
● Leeds lost this exact fixture 2-1 last season – they’ve never lost consecutive home league games against West Ham in their history.
● West Ham won both league meetings against Leeds last season, as many victories as they’d managed in their previous 28 against the Whites (D8 L18). They’ve not won three in a row against the Yorkshire side since August 1949 (a run of four).
● Leeds are without a win so far this season (D3 L2) – only once in their history have they failed to win any of their first six games of a top-flight campaign, doing so in 1935-36.
● Leeds have conceded five goals in their two home Premier League games this season, as many as they had in their previous nine at Elland Road.
● West Ham’s defeat against Manchester United last time out ended their seven-game unbeaten run in the Premier League (W4 D3). Since the start of last season, the Hammers have only lost consecutive league games twice – vs Newcastle and Arsenal in September 2020 and vs Newcastle and Chelsea in April.
● Leeds have faced more shots on target than any other Premier League side this season (35), with only Newcastle (13) and Norwich (14) shipping more goals than the Whites so far. At the other end, 47% of Leeds shots have come from outside the box (33/70), with no team having a larger share of their attempts from distance than Marcelo Bielsa’s side.
● Since the start of last season, West Ham have scored more goals from crosses than any other side in the Premier League (20), with the Hammers leading the way for cross-assisted goals in both 2020-21 (16) and this term (4).
● West Ham’s Michail Antonio has never scored in nine previous league games against Leeds – he hasn’t faced an opponent more often without scoring in the English league.
● West Ham manager David Moyes has lost 199 of his 588 Premier League games, and could become the fourth different manager to lose 200 games in charge in the competition (Harry Redknapp 238, Sam Allardyce 214 and Steve Bruce 209).
● West Ham’s Saïd Benrahma has been directly involved in five goals in five Premier League games this season (3 goals, 2 assists), just two fewer than he managed in 30 appearances last season (1 goal, 6 assists).
LEICESTER V BURNLEY
3pm This fixture might get lost between all the superb matches today, but I have to say I find it one of the most fascinating fixtures of the day, certainly close to Chelsea v Man City! I feel we’ll find out a huge amount about Leicester today. I noted before Super Sunday that ahead of those three games involving Leicester, Man United and Chelsea that we would know a lot more about the Top Four race and if Leicester could challenge. I think we know our answer to that already as Leicester lost 2-1 to Brighton, but not only that, they have dropped so many points already this season. Their performances have been poor, and you can really see looking at their xG figures that they are struggling. Even in their wins over Wolves and Norwich, they created less than two sides – they conceded an xG of 1.66 to Wolves in their 1-0 win and they were very lucky to win.
I’m fascinated to see how they perform at home against a side like Burnley, in a game that they really should be winning. They already find themselves in the bottom half of the table, and they run the risk of missing out on European football next season. That would be a huge drop considering they lost Champions League football on the run-in twice in a row. They are trading 1.58 to win here and I don’t think you can back that price with confidence. Burnley sit in the bottom three, but they haven’t been playing that badly. They have been losing tight games – for example they created an xG of 1.99 in a 2-1 loss to Brighton and their losses to Everton and Arsenal were very even on xG. I’m very tempted to lay Leicester because I feel they are too short, but under 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 1.99. I can’t see anything other than a very close game – Leicester are struggling going forward and Burnley like to keep games tight. Unders looks a very good play here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.99 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeibur
MATCH STATS
● Leicester are unbeaten in their last 10 home league games against Burnley (W6 D4) since a 1-0 loss in the Championship in November 2007.
● Burnley have won just three of their 12 Premier League meetings with Leicester (D3 L6), with all three such victories coming at Turf Moor.
● Leicester have lost six of their last nine Premier League games (W3), more than they had in their previous 24 before this (W13 D6 L5). However, the Foxes have won each of their last six league games against sides starting the day in the relegation zone by an aggregate score of 15-2.
● Burnley have lost their last three away league games, last losing more consecutively on the road in February 2017 (7). Overall, the Clarets have taken just one point from their last 24 available home and away in the Premier League (D1 L7), netting just three goals in that run.
● Burnley have already dropped a league high eight points from winning positions in the Premier League this season. Only the top two sides Chelsea (5) and Liverpool (4) have opened the scoring in more of their games than the Clarets in the division this season (3).
● Burnley have used fewer players than any other side in the Premier League this season (17), with the Clarets also having the division’s oldest average starting XI so far this term (29y 135d).
● Burnley have made more open play crosses than any other Premier League side this season (105), with two of their three league goals this term being assisted by a cross. Among players, Dwight McNeil has made more open play crosses than any other player in the division (36), finding a teammate 25% of the time but yet to register an assist.
● Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has won all five of his home games against Burnley in all competitions – in his managerial career, he’s only got a better 100% home win ratio against Motherwell (6/6).
● Jamie Vardy has been directly involved in six goals in his last six Premier League games for Leicester (5 goals, 1 assist), with these involvements accounting for 86% of Leicester’s total goals in that run (6/7).
● Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored four Premier League goals against former side Leicester, only netting more against West Ham (7) and Wolves (5) in the competition. The New Zealand striker has scored in his last two league visits to the King Power Stadium.
WATFORD V NEWCASTLE
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Watford hosting Newcastle in what could be a massive game at the bottom of the table when we look back in a couple of months. Watford recorded a massive three points when beating Norwich last weekend, and if they won here it would be another huge win for them. Newcastle have yet to win a game from their five thus far, however they played alright last Friday night in a 1-1 draw with Leeds. They didn’t really deserve their other draw against Southampton; the game finished 2-2 but Southampton created an xG of 3.42! Watford will be very happy with two wins from five games considering their main goal this season will be to stay up, and they will be looking at this game as another excellent chance for three points.
I have to say I’m not a fan of Newcastle. They are just a poor side in my opinion, but they will do enough to stay up this season – they always do! They will likely be in the relegation battle, and probably in the bottom three on the xG table, but they will grind out enough points to stay up. That’s a skill in its own right in fairness, but I just can’t warm to them. Their performances this season have been pretty poor and they have obviously had a slow start to the season. This is a game for small stakes for me, but with home advantage I feel Watford can get the job done here. Their performance against Norwich was very good, and if they can repeat that they should win.
The Striker Says:
One point win Norwich to beat Newcastle at 2.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWatnew
MATCH STATS
● Watford have won five of their 12 Premier League meetings with Newcastle (D4 L3) – no side have they beaten more in the competition. Indeed, their 19 points against the Magpies is more than they’ve earned against any other opponent in the Premier League.
● Newcastle have won just one of their last nine away league games against Watford (D4 L4), while they’ve never won a top-flight match at Vicarage Road before (D5 L5).
● Watford have won 13 of their last 15 home league games (L2), losing their last such match at Vicarage Road 2-0 against Wolves. They’ve not lost back-to-back home league games since November 2019.
● Newcastle have failed to win any of their five Premier League games this season (D2 L3). They could become the first team to fail to win any of their first six on as many as six different occasions in the competition, with the Magpies previously doing so in 1999-00, 2003-04, 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2018-19.
● Newcastle won 2-0 at Fulham on the final day last season – they’ve not won consecutive Premier League matches against promoted sides since November 2015, while they haven’t done so away from home since winning all three such games in 2013-14.
● Newcastle have faced more shots than any other side in the Premier League this season (93), and also have the highest xG against total in the competition this term (11.95).
● Just one of Watford’s 21 corners in the Premier League this season has led to a chance, fewer than any other side in the competition. Meanwhile, only Manchester United (8), Brighton (11) and Liverpool (12) have had more corners leading to an attempt than Newcastle (7).
● Newcastle have made fewer presses than any other Premier League side so far this season (56), with a press being defined as two or more defending players applying pressure at the same time to one or more opposition players.
● As well as being Watford’s top scorer in the Premier League with three goals this season, Ismaila Sarr has created the most chances (9), had the most shots (13) and completed the most dribbles (16) of any player for the Hornets this term.
● Allan Saint-Maximin has been directly involved in three goals in his last three Premier League games for Newcastle (2 goals, 1 assist), as many as in his previous 12 for the Magpies. This is the first time in his Premier League career he’s been involved in a goal in three consecutive appearances.
BRENTFORD V LIVERPOOL
5.30pm We finish the day with Premier League new boys Brentford hosting Liverpool! Brentford will be delighted to be sitting in mid-table after five games and it seems likely they will stay up this season. I didn’t expect them to beat Wolves last weekend but they performed very well – they created an xG of 2.11 and that was an impressive performance away from home too. Wolves had been playing well prior to that game too. I know everyone will expect a comfortable Liverpool win here, but I wouldn’t fully right off Brentford here. It’s nice that this is a TV game as I feel it will be a very enjoyable watch. Brentford’s owner are big into xG figures and underlining numbers, and to employ those tactics you can’t really approach games negatively – we could have a very entertaining game here. Liverpool will be expected to win, and they are trading around 1.5.
As I said last weekend, if Liverpool can keep their main XI fit then they have the best side in the Premier League, but the problem for them is their squad is so thin. It’s really the owners fault there is no investment, and I’m sure they will run into issues towards the middle of the season, around Christmas time again when the fixture list gets tough. That’s what happened last season, and it could easily happen again this season. I don’t expect Brentford to sit back here and they should play their usually game – however I feel that will fit into Liverpool’s game perfectly. They will counter attack superbly well here and they could actually score three or four here. Obviously the handicap prices are very appealing, but I’m going to stick with the Liverpool win at 1.5.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Liverpool to beat Brentford at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBreliv
MATCH STATS
● This will be the first league meeting between Brentford and Liverpool since May 1947. The sides played out a 1-1 draw at Griffin Park, which resulted in the Bees’ relegation from the top-flight, while Liverpool went on to win the title.
● In all competitions, Liverpool have won their last four meetings with Brentford, scoring 14 goals and conceding just twice. However, this is the first meeting between the sides since a 4-0 win for the Reds at Anfield in the FA Cup in March 1989.
● Liverpool have scored exactly four goals in each of their last three meetings with Brentford in all competitions, though all of these games took place between 1983 and 1989. The Reds have scored 4+ goals in more consecutive matches vs three opponents – Rotherham Town (4 between 1894-1896), Crewe Alexandra (5 between 1895-1992) and West Ham (4 between 2017-2018).
● Liverpool have lost just one of their last 27 Premier League games against promoted sides (W22 D4), going down 1-0 at home to Fulham last season. Meanwhile, the last time the Reds lost their first ever Premier League meeting against a side was in October 2010 (1-2 vs Blackpool).
● Brentford Community Stadium will be the 60th different ground at which Liverpool have played a Premier League game. The Reds have won at 57 of the 59 they’ve played at so far, more than any other side in the competition.
● Brentford lost their last home league game against Brighton, thanks to a 90th minute winning strike. They’ve not lost consecutive home league games since a run of three in December 2018.
● Liverpool are on the longest current unbeaten run in English league football (15 – W12 D3). Away from home, the Reds have won their last five games by an aggregate score of 15-3, including 3-0 in each of their last three on the road – in top-flight history, only Liverpool themselves have won four consecutive away league games by 3+ goals each time, doing so in December 2017.
● Brentford striker Ivan Toney has the most goals (2), goal involvements (3), joint-most shots (12) and joint-most chances created (7) for the Bees in the Premier League this season.
● Only Steven Gerrard (13) has scored more Premier League goals in London for Liverpool than Mohamed Salah (12), with the Egyptian netting six in his last five visits to the capital. Meanwhile, no Liverpool player has scored in more different stadiums in London than Sadio Mané (6).
● Mohamed Salah has scored 99 goals in 150 Premier League games for Liverpool. A goal here would see him become the fastest player to score 100 top-flight goals for the Reds, with that record currently being held by Roger Hunt (152 games).
