SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League matches starting with MAN U v EVERTON at 12.30pm – all previews include a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
MANCHESTER UNITED V EVERTON
12.30pm We’re all set for another fantastic weekend in the Premier League with all football bets 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Saturday! We start the weekend with Manchester United hosting Everton and this should be a very interesting game. It hasn’t been a good time for United fans recently, they lost to Young Boys in the Champions League and that brought the club back down to earth after all the Ronaldo hype; and then they suffered a huge setback when losing to Aston Villa last weekend. I don’t think anyone really believed they would lift the Premier League title this season, but losses like that really highlight United are going to come up short again this season. The prices are quite similar to the Aston Villa game here, except Everton have actually been playing better football and this should be a good test for United.
You have to consider United did miss a late penalty against Aston Villa, and they did finish the game with an xG of 2.45. It’s not all doom and gloom, because the underlining figures are actually quite promising. They just have a lot more work to do, and I think this is a good time for Everton to play them. Everton have been very impressive thus far this season, and got back to winning ways with a smooth 2-0 win over Norwich after surprisingly losing 3-0 to Aston Villa. That loss came from nowhere, and the xG figures said they didn’t deserve to lose by that much. I expect a pretty close game here and Everton to make life difficult for United, so I’m happy to have a reasonable lay on United at 1.55 which looks very short.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Everton at 1.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMuneve
MATCH STATS
● Manchester United have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League meetings with Everton (W6 D5), going down 4-0 at Goodison Park in April 2019.
● Having won their first ever Premier League away game against Manchester United in August 1992, Everton have emerged victorious in just one of their subsequent 28 trips to Old Trafford (D7 L20).
● Manchester United have conceded at least once in each of their last eight Premier League home games, with the Red Devils last having a longer run without a home clean sheet in the top-flight between September 1970 and February 1971 (10 games).
● Each of Manchester United’s last eight Premier League defeats have come in home games – it’s the longest run of defeats without suffering an away loss in top-flight history.
● Everton have conceded 10 goals in their last four Premier League away games, as many as they had in their previous 14 on the road. The Toffees lost 3-0 at Aston Villa in their last away league game, but haven’t lost consecutive games away from Goodison Park since November 2020.
● Everton manager Rafael Benítez has lost seven of his nine Premier League away games against Man Utd, winning the other two. His victories came with Liverpool in March 2009 (4-1) and Chelsea in May 2013 (1-0), and he could become the first ever manager to win a top-flight away match against the Red Devils with three different clubs.
● If he plays, this will be Cristiano Ronaldo’s 200th Premier League appearance (87 goals). He would be the 24th different player to reach this milestone with the Red Devils, at least eight more than any other side in the competition.
● Andros Townsend has been involved in seven goals in eight games in all competitions this season (4 goals, 3 assists), more than any other Everton player. Townsend opened the scoring for Crystal Palace in their 3-1 league win against Manchester United at Old Trafford last season.
● No player has created more chances in the Premier League this season than Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes (21), with 10 of these coming in the Red Devils’ 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa last time out.
● Man Utd’s Paul Pogba has had more shots without scoring than any other player in the Premier League this season (15). However, the Frenchman has provided seven assists so far this term, more than double that of any other player.
BURNLEY V NORWICH
3pm A massive game for both sides. We’ve only had six games in the Premier League this season, but this is already a relegation six pointer. Norwich have had a very difficult start to life in the Premier League having lost their opening six games, while Burnley have managed two draws from their six games. They sit in 19th and 20th in the table, and not only is this a massive fixture in terms of the table – it’s massive in terms of morale. Norwich have a woeful goal difference, but you have to remember that they have had to play Leicester, Manchester City, Leicester and Arsenal already, and Everton away isn’t an easy fixture either. In fairness to Burnley, they have also played Liverpool, Everton, Arsenal and Leicester too., but tougher games will come.
Sometimes these games are tricky to call because both sides have been losing to teams at a higher level than them, and it’s hard to call who is playing the better football. This is where the xG figures do come in very handy, and it’s clear to see that Burnley are playing better. Norwich have been playing some decent football, and I wouldn’t say that they are that bad – however Burnley are creating more chances this season than they ever did, and with home advantage they should get the job done. The 1.96 is worth a small investment – losing here would be a massive blow for Norwich, but Burnley should be able to outclass them.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Burnley to beat Norwich at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBurnor
MATCH STATS
● Burnley have only lost one of their last 11 league meetings with Norwich (W8 D2), winning both of their Premier League games against the Canaries.
● In their league history, Norwich have won just one of their 18 away games against Burnley (D3 L14), losing each of the last six in a row at Turf Moor since a 5-3 victory in April 2004.
● Burnley have never failed to score in their 18 home league games against Norwich, while their win rate of 77.8% in home league games against the Canaries is their highest among any opponent they’ve faced 15+ times at Turf Moor.
● None of the 43 meetings between Burnley and Norwich City in all competitions has finished 0-0 – it’s the most either side has ever faced an opponent without having a single goalless draw in their respective histories.
● Burnley are winless in their last nine league games (D2 L7), their longest such streak since a run of 10 between April and September 2018.
● Burnley are without a win in their last 13 home league games (D6 L7). Even against promoted sides, Burnley are winless in their last five league games at Turf Moor (D3 L2), since beating Norwich 2-0 in September 2019.
● Norwich have made the worst start to a Premier League campaign at this stage, with 0 points and a goal difference of -14. In top-flight history, just five teams have lost each of their first seven games to a season – Liverpool in 1899-00, Bolton in 1902-03, Manchester United in 1930-31, Portsmouth in 2009-10 and Crystal Palace in 2017-18.
● Burnley have dropped more points from winning positions than any other side in the Premier League this season (10). However, Norwich are the only side yet to take the lead in any of their six Premier League games so far in 2021-22.
● Norwich have the lowest expected goals total (5.3) and the lowest shot conversion rate (3.3%) of any side in the Premier League this season.
● Burnley striker Chris Wood has scored five goals in his four league starts against Norwich, including three in two Premier League meetings with the Canaries.
CHELSEA V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm Chelsea are looking to bounce back against Southampton in the next 3pm kick off after suffering their first loss of the season against Manchester City. I couldn’t help check the Outright prices last weekend for the Premier League title because it was a massive weekend for Manchester City. Liverpool could only draw and with Manchester United and Chelsea losing, it was the first big weekend of swings at the top of the table. Chelsea are still clear favourites but I feel the prices are all wrong at the moment. Liverpool should be second favourites for me, but I fully take on board they have big issues if players get injured. Chelsea are talked about as big title challengers but I just don’t see it – they may have got a draw with Liverpool at Anfield but they were completely out played – they gave away an xG of 3.35 and then never lay a glove on City last weekend even with home advantage.
The thing about Chelsea this season is they will be good at winning games like this against Southampton, but I can see them coming up short in the big games. They will be hoping the other top sides drop points along the way, but we’ve already saw that happen so you never know – they couldn’t be lifting the title and prove me very wrong. Southampton were one of the sides to take points off Manchester City with a 0-0 draw, and they have generally been keeping their games very tight. I expect Chelsea to win here but with a busy week and a big Champions League game against Juventus, this game might have a cagey start. Under 2.5 goals looks better value at 2.16 compared to Chelsea at 1.4. Southampton are generally solid at the back and that can continue here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQChesou
MATCH STATS
● Chelsea are winless in their last three league games against Southampton (D2 L1), last having a longer winless run against them between October 1990 and December 1993 (7 games).
● Southampton have taken 19 points from 22 Premier League away games against Chelsea (W4 D7 L11) – only at Aston Villa (27) and Crystal Palace (21) have Saints earned more away points in the competition.
● Three of Chelsea’s four Premier League defeats under Thomas Tuchel have come in home games. The Blues haven’t lost consecutive league games at Stamford Bridge since December 2019, the second game of which came against Southampton.
● Southampton have failed to score in five of their last eight league games, including each of the last three in a row. Saints have had seven separate runs of failing to score in 4+ consecutive Premier League games, most recently a run of five in October 2018.
● Southampton are one of five teams without a win so far in the Premier League this season – only twice in their top-flight history have they failed to win any of their first seven games to a campaign, doing so in 1996-97 and 1998-99.
● Chelsea are over-performing their expected goals total more than any other Premier League side this season, with the Blues scoring 12 goals compared to an xG of 8.4 (3.6 difference). Southampton meanwhile are one of the more under-performing sides in this regard (-3.1 – 4 goals, 7.1 xG).
● No side has scored more first-half goals than Chelsea in the Premier League this season (6, level with Liverpool). However, Southampton are one of just two sides (along with Man City) yet to concede before half-time in the competition this term, with all seven goals against them coming in the second half.
● Chelsea striker Romelu Lukaku has scored nine goals in his 12 Premier League games against Southampton, against no side has he netted more in the competition (also 9 vs West Ham).
● Of all keepers to play more than once in the Premier League this season, Chelsea’s Édouard Mendy has the best save percentage (90%). He’s conceded a goal on average once every 225 minutes this season, with those strikes coming against Liverpool and Manchester City.
● Adam Armstrong has had more shots than any other Southampton player in the Premier League this season (19). With six chances created on top of this, he’s been involved in 33% of Saints’ total attempts so far this term (25/75).
LEEDS V WATFORD
3pm We have another massive game towards the bottom of the table here as Leeds take on Watford. Leeds impressed a lot of football fans last season with their attacking flare going forward, but we all knew they had issues at the back. They haven’t solved those issues, and now they have started the season slowly in front of goal. Not creating chances and scoring when you have major issues at the back is never going to go well, and they start the weekend sitting in the bottom three with just three points of six games. Gary Neville comment on Sky Sports always sticks in my head when thinking about Leeds. He said “if you’re a striker you want to play against Leeds” and he’s right – Leeds will always give away a lot of chances, and it will be very interesting to see how they do today.
I don’t believe that Leeds are bad enough to go back down to the Championship, but their xG figures have been very poor this season and it’s clear they have major issues at the back. I think if they lose today they are in the relegation battle. We have a very interesting market – Leeds are trading 1.81 and I’m sure there will be some big opinions on that price. I am in the lay camp – I know Watford are a limited side but Leeds just aren’t playing good football this season, they are giving away chances for fun and creating little. Until I see more from Leeds I can’t have them at these prices.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Leeds to beat Watford at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeewat
MATCH STATS
● Leeds have won both of their previous top-flight meetings with Watford, winning 2-1 away and 3-1 at home in the 1999-00 Premier League campaign.
● Watford have won their last three league games against Leeds, just one fewer than they had in their first 17 against them (W4 D6 L7, excl. play-offs). This is the first league meeting between the sides since February 2015 (Leeds 2-3 Watford).
● Watford are unbeaten in their last five away league games against Leeds (W3 D2), netting 16 goals in these five matches since a 2-1 loss in February 2006.
● Leeds have never kept a clean sheet in their 10 home league meetings with Watford – the Hornets are the only side to have played at least four away league games against Leeds while finding the net every time.
● Leeds remain without a win so far in the Premier League this season (D3 L3) – they’ve never failed to win any of their first seven league games in any of their previous 94 campaigns in their history.
● Leeds have already dropped five points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, drawing at Newcastle before losing at home to West Ham. The Whites only dropped six points when leading in the whole of 2020-21.
● Watford’s 3-1 win at Norwich in their last away game ended a run of eight consecutive away defeats in the Premier League. The Hornets last won consecutive top-flight games on the road back in September 2017 (3).
● Since the start of last season, Leeds have scored more Premier League goals from outside the box than any other side (17), including three of their six strikes this season. Meanwhile, only Crystal Palace (4) have shipped more goals from distance so far this term than Watford (3).
● No player has had more shots from outside the box in the Premier League this season than Leeds’ Raphinha (14), with 74% of the Brazilian’s total attempts this term coming from distance (14/19).
● Only Mohamed Salah (15) has had more shots on target than Watford’s Ismaila Sarr so far in the Premier League this season, with 11 of the Senegalese’s 16 total attempts being on target so far (incl. 4 goals).
WOLVES V NEWCASTLE
3pm With Norwich, Burnley, Leeds and Newcastle all playing at 3pm today, there’s bound to be some swings at the bottom of the table! Wolves will be very confident of winning this fixture, and I am very confident too. Wolves have been one of the most unlucky sides in the Premier League this season, and the xG table actually puts them in fourth heading into this weekend. They have been incredible unlucky – two examples are their 1-0 loss to Manchester United when xG finished 2.55 to 0.86 to Wolves and then losing to Leicester with xG having the game 1.66 to 0.55 to Wolves. They created more than Spurs too when they lost. We know Newcastle are a limited side, but they will grind out enough points to stay up again this season.
Newcastle will likely make life difficult for Wolves as they try to grind out another result here. They have yet to win a game this season, but they have drawn three of their six games. They have conceded a lot of chances though – they have given away xG figures of 3.15, 1.35, 3.42, 2.89, 1.58 and 1.16. They haven’t had a majorly tough fixture list, with their toughest game being Manchester United away. I think Newcastle will struggle again this season, but ultimately stay up. The 1.71 looks a nice price on Wolves given how impressive they have been going forward this season and how many chances Newcastle have given away. Styles make games and it looks a great chance for Wolves.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Wolves to beat Newcastle at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWolnew
MATCH STATS
● Wolves haven’t won any of their last seven home league games against Newcastle (D5 L2), since a 1-0 victory in the second tier in April 1993.
● Newcastle have won just one of their last nine league games against Wolves (D6 L2), winning 1-0 at Molineux in February 2017 in the Championship.
● Both teams have scored in all 12 Premier League meetings between Wolves and Newcastle, making it the most played fixture in the competition not to see a clean sheet. Eight of those 12 matches have finished 1-1, including each of the last five in a row.
● Wolves have lost each of their last four Premier League home games, last losing more consecutively at Molineux between January and April 2012 (9).
● Wolves are the only side without a home goal in the Premier League so far this season. Only four teams have ever failed to score in any of their first four home games in a top-flight campaign – West Bromwich Albion in 1921-22, Everton in 1998-99 and both Crystal Palace and Huddersfield in 2018-19.
● After winning five of their last eight league games in the 2020-21 campaign, Newcastle are without a win in their six games so far this season (D3 L3).
● Wolves are yet to score a goal in the first half of a game in the Premier League this season. Indeed, over their last 25 Premier League matches, Wolves have scored in the first half on just four occasions.
● Wolves striker Raúl Jiménez scored his first Premier League goal in almost a year in their 1-0 win against Southampton last time out. His last goal at Molineux in the competition came against today’s opponents Newcastle, back in October 2020.
● Allan Saint-Maximin has either scored (2) or assisted (3) five of Newcastle’s seven Premier League goals so far this season (71%), registering a goal involvement in each of his last four appearances in the competition.
● Newcastle midfielder Joe Willock scored in each of his last seven Premier League appearances in 2020-21, playing 389 minutes in these games and averaging a goal every 56 minutes. So far this season he’s played 431 minutes across five games, but has yet to find the net for the Magpies this term.
BRIGHTON V ARSENAL
5.30pm What an interesting fixture to finish an intriguing Saturday! After playing some great football for a few years, Brighton are finally starting to win games and they start the game four points ahead of Arsenal in the table. Arsenal won a massive North London Derby last weekend and although they have the bragging rights over Spurs, it’s still clear to see both London clubs have major issues. Arsenal come into this game off a run of wins now, but the first two came against Norwich and Burnley who started the day in 19th and 20th, and I still look at fixtures like this and just don’t fancy Arsenal. In days gone by Arsenal might be close to 2.0 for this game but this still look short at 2.6.
Brighton have been excellent this season, and sit in the Top Six starting the weekend. I have to say though it was disappointing to see they couldn’t beat Crystal Palace on Monday night, the game was very even and a 1-1 draw was the right result. I felt they could have beaten Palace, however those derbies are always close games. Arsenal should come into this game with confidence, but Brighton have been creating enough chances to get a result here. I believe this is a game for small stakes as we have such an open market and it should be a very close game, but I don’t fancy Arsenal in these tricky away games and the 2.6 is a lay for me. What a brilliant day ahead though, it should be a cracker.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Brighton at 2.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBriars
MATCH STATS
● After a five-game unbeaten run in the Premier League against Arsenal (W3 D2), Brighton lost home and away against the Gunners last term.
● Arsenal are looking to win back-to-back away league games against Brighton for the first time since April 1981, following their 1-0 victory at the Amex Stadium last term.
● This is just the second time Arsenal are facing Brighton in the top-flight while below them in the table, with the previous match being a 0-0 draw at Highbury in January 1982 (Arsenal 10th, Brighton 9th).
● Brighton have won three of their last four Premier League home games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 22 at the Amex Stadium (W3 D10 L9). The Seagulls have kept seven home clean sheets so far in 2021, with only Manchester City and Chelsea (9 each) keeping more at home this calendar year.
● Arsenal are just the third side in Premier League history to lose their opening three games of a campaign and then win their next three, after Wimbledon in 1996-97 and West Bromwich Albion 2002-03. The Dons won their seventh game in that campaign, while the Baggies lost theirs.
● Starting with a 1-0 victory at Brighton in December 2020, Arsenal have won nine of their last 15 away league games (D2 L4), with only Manchester City (13) and Liverpool (10) winning more Premier League games on the road in that time.
● Arsenal’s last eight Premier League goals against Brighton have been netted by just three different players – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (3), Alexandre Lacazette (2) and Nicolas Pépé (3).
● Brighton forward Danny Welbeck has scored in each of his last three Premier League appearances against Arsenal, with these strikes coming between 2011-12 (twice with Manchester United) and 2019-20 (with Watford).
● Neal Maupay has scored half of Brighton’s Premier League goals this season (4/8), and is looking to score in three consecutive league games for the first time since October 2020. Maupay has also scored the winning goal in two of his three Premier League appearances against Arsenal.
● Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored five goals in his last five appearances in all competitions, more than he had in his previous 17 for the Gunners (4).
