SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League action which is underway at 12.30pm with CHELSEA v NORWICH at Stamford Bridge. All matches include a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
CHELSEA V NORWICH
12.30pm We have another fantastic Saturday ahead in the Premier League and all football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start the day with Chelsea hosting Norwich as the Blues start the weekend top of the table. Despite dropping points against Liverpool and Man City, they have dealt with the average sides very well and this should be a straightforward home win. The market is expecting an easy win too with Chelsea trading 1.2 at the time of writing. Norwich haven’t had the best of times this season – they had a very tough fixture list to start their season – now they have put together two draws and bump into Chelsea away! Perhaps this is a little harsh, but their two draws were 0-0 and that could be the best chance for Norwich as they haven’t been creating much.
I feel this is a case of how many goals with Chelsea score rather than will they win. Chelsea warmed up for this fixture with a 4-0 stroll over Malmo in the Champions League on Wednesday. They only conceded an xG of 0.07 too! It will be interesting to see what Norwich can do here, but judging by their xG figures lately they will really struggle to create chances and score. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.56, and that looks priced pretty well to me – I expect it to win, but there doesn’t look like there’s much value there. I much prefer the 1.66 on Chelsea to cover the 1.5 goal handicap. They have been excellent at beating the small teams this season, and this will be no different.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Chelsea -1.5 goals to beat Norwich at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQChenor
MATCH STATS
● Chelsea have won 10 of their last 12 Premier League games against Norwich (D2), last losing against the Canaries in the competition back in December 1994 (0-3).
● After winning their first two Premier League away games against Chelsea in 1992-93 and 1993-94, Norwich have taken just one point from their subsequent seven trips to Stamford Bridge (D1 L6).
● Norwich have lost each of their last 10 Premier League matches in London, last earning points from such a fixture with a 2-2 draw against West Ham in September 2015.
● Since Wolves beat Man Utd 2-1 back in February 2011, the side starting the day bottom of the Premier League table has lost 11 of the last 12 clashes with the side starting the day top (D1), including seven of the last eight without scoring a goal. Chelsea themselves have beaten the side bottom of the table more often than any other team since the competition was formed in 1992 (42).
● Excluding MD1 matches, this will be Norwich’s 38th consecutive Premier League game in the relegation zone. Only Swindon (40 in 1993-94) have ever had a longer such run in the competition.
● Norwich are winless in their last 16 Premier League away games (D3 L13), netting just four goals in that run. The Canaries are without a goal in their last 10 hours and 26 minutes of play on the road in the competition, since Emi Buendía netted against Watford in July 2020.
● No side has conceded fewer goals than Chelsea in the Premier League this season (3), while Norwich have the worst attack so far (2 goals scored). However, the Canaries are looking to keep three consecutive Premier League clean sheets for the first time since November 2012, the third game of which was a 1-0 victory against league leaders Manchester United.
● Of all goalkeepers with at least 10 starts in Premier League history, Chelsea’s Édouard Mendy has the highest clean sheet ratio, keeping a shutout in 20 of his 38 starts in the competition (53%). The Senegalese ‘keeper made six second half saves in the Blues’ 1-0 win at Brentford last time out.
● Ben Chilwell has scored in each of his last three Premier League appearances for Chelsea, having scored just twice in his first 26 appearances for the club in the competition.
● Romelu Lukaku scored three goals in his first three Premier League appearances following his return to Chelsea, averaging four shots per 90 minutes in these games. Since then, the Belgian has gone four games without a goal, averaging just 1.6 shots per 90 in this time.
CRYSTAL PALACE V NEWCASTLE
3pm We have some very competitive fixtures kicking off at 3pm and we start with Crystal Palace hosting Newcastle. I know Newcastle have a lot of money now that they have been taken over, but the reality is they are still in a relegation battle and they need to sort that out quickly. Obviously they have a lot of money, but they will have to pay over the odds for any players in the winter transfer window given their place in the table and they have to find a new manager too. The writing was on the wall for Steve Bruce when the takeover was announced, but to his credit he handled the situation very well and came out looking very well. He deserved his payout! It will be interesting to see how Newcastle perform here now he’s gone and what type of reaction we get from the players.
Neither side have performed well this season. I felt Crystal Palace would actually be lower than they currently are, however they fully deserved their only win of the season against Spurs and they have picked up five draws to their credit. They come into this game off the back of three draws against Brighton, Leicester and Arsenal. Palace have actually seen a lot of action in their games this season, and Newcastle have also saw Both Teams Score in all but one of their Premier League games this season. I feel Palace will get the job done, but they don’t jump off the page to me at around 2.0. I much prefer Both Teams To Score at 1.78. The stats really back this bet up and this game could have plenty of mistakes at the back.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCrynew
MATCH STATS
● Crystal Palace have won three of their last five Premier League games against Newcastle (L2), more than they had in their first 15 against them in the competition (W2 D5 L8).
● Newcastle have won just one of their last six away Premier League games against Crystal Palace (D3 L2), though it was in this exact fixture last season (2-0).
● Crystal Palace are looking to go unbeaten in their opening five home league matches of a season for the first time since 1996-97 in the second tier, last doing so in the top-flight back in 1990-91.
● Newcastle have failed to win any of their first eight Premier League matches of a season for only the third campaign, finally winning their ninth game in 2015-16 and their 11th in 2018-19. The Magpies were relegated at the end of that 2015-16 season.
● Newcastle have lost more Premier League away games in London than any other side in the competition (81). However, the Magpies have won six of their last 12 top-flight visits to the capital (D1 L5).
● Crystal Palace have drawn five of their eight Premier League games this season, including each of the last three in a row. It’s the most draws a team has had at this stage a Premier League campaign since 2014-15, when both Arsenal and Sunderland had five draws in their first eight.
● 90% of Crystal Palace’s Premier League goals this season have been scored in the second half (9/10), the highest ratio in the division. Meanwhile, no side has shipped more Premier League goals after half-time than Newcastle this term (11).
● Newcastle have kept just three clean sheets in their last 25 Premier League games, with each of these shutouts coming against the three relegated sides last season. The Magpies have conceded more goals than any other Premier League side so far this season (19).
● After netting in his first two Premier League games against Newcastle in 2013, Crystal Palace’s Christian Benteke has failed to score in his last nine against the Magpies in the competition.
● Newcastle striker Callum Wilson has scored five goals in his last five Premier League games, more than he had in his previous 18 (4). He’s looking to score in three consecutive league appearances for the first time since a run of four with Bournemouth in September 2019.
EVERTON V WATFORD
3pm From the 3pm games, Everton are the only side trading odds on at the time of writing and I make them the best bet of the day at 1.68. They face a very average Watford side here, and although their results haven’t reflected it Everton have been playing well this season. After last weekend, the xG table had Everton in the Top Four! The xG table also had Watford in the relegation zone in 19th, and I think that’s a fair reflect of both sides performances. Everton started the season very strongly, but their 3-0 loss to Aston Villa came from nowhere. xG said the game was pretty even, but they can have no complaints about the 1-0 loss against West Ham last weekend as they were outplayed for the first time this season. There’s a huge gulf in class between West Ham and Watford however, and Everton should be able to win this game with ease.
Watford were hammered last weekend by Liverpool, but I’m not going to read into that too much as Liverpool are in fantastic form at the moment and there was just too much class for Watford to handle. Watford have had a pretty reasonable fixture list at the start of the season, and they should drop down into a relegation fight when they start to play the top sides. They have been conceding a lot of chances this season, and only really deserved to beat Norwich who are bottom of the table. This one is all about the odds for me, and Everton look massive at 1.68. They have been playing much better football and Watford are there for the taking – at the odds they have to be a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Everton to beat Watford at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQEvewat
MATCH STATS
● Everton have never lost a home game to Watford in any competition (W13 D2) – it’s the most they’ve ever faced a side at home without defeat in their history.
● Watford have won three of their last eight league games against Everton (D1 L4), more than they had in their first 18 such meetings with the Toffees (W2 D3 L13). However, they lost home and away against them in their last Premier League campaign of 2019-20.
● Everton have lost eight home league games so far in 2021, with the Toffees last losing more at Goodison Park in a calendar year in 2005 (9).
● Everton have lost five of their last eight home Premier League games against newly-promoted sides (W2 D1), including two of their three last season (v Leeds and Fulham). Indeed, since 2018-19, this is the most such defeats of any side, with Leicester City next on three.
● Watford have lost nine of their last 10 Premier League away games (W1), failing to score on seven occasions in that run.
● Watford’s last six Premier League away wins have been against sides with an average position of 18th in the league table. The Hornets haven’t won away against a side in the top half of the Premier League since December 2018 (2-0 vs West Ham), drawing two, losing 13 and conceding 41 goals in their 15 such games since.
● Watford have had fewer shots than any other side in the Premier League this season (76), while they also have the lowest expected goals total so far this term (6.1). 41% of the Hornets’ xG this season came in one game against Norwich (2.5), which is the only game in which they’ve had an xG of more than one this term.
● This will be the seventh managerial meeting between Everton boss Rafa Benítez and Watford’s Claudio Ranieri, and first since Newcastle drew 0-0 with Fulham in December 2018. Both men have overseen two wins each against the other (with two draws), most notably a 3-1 win for the Spaniard over the Italian in the Italian Super Cup back in 2010 (Inter 3-1 Roma).
● Both of Richarlison’s two Premier League goals in this fixture have come at Goodison Park, netting firstly for Watford back in November 2017, before scoring against the Hornets for Everton in December 2018.
● Ismaila Sarr has had 26% of Watford’s total shots in the Premier League this season (20/76), the highest ratio of any player in the competition so far this term.
LEEDS V WOLVES
3pm Next we have a fascinating market as Leeds host Wolves. Leeds have started the season very poorly, and sit just above the relegation zone. They put in another very disappointing performance away to Southampton last weekend, conceding an xG of 2.13 and only creating 0.39. Leeds were always very dodgy at the back, but they covered it up with their excellent attacking play – that has gone this season, and now they are really struggling. When you can’t control possession and create chances, basically you’re just left with dealing with a dodgy defence and if they can’t turn things around they’re really going to struggle this season. After a brilliant first season they were talking about challenging for Europe, if they can’t sort out their issues at the back they could be in a relegation battle.
We have the most open market of the day here, and I still feel we aren’t at the right prices. Wolves have been fantastic this season – the xG table has them up in third at the start of the weekend and they have had some very unlucky results. They have been creating a lot of chances, and that’s just what you want to see against a side like Leeds. I accept we should have an open market here, but I wouldn’t have Leeds 2.64 and Wolves 2.92. I would actually have the odds the other way around given how well Wolves have been playing and poorly Leeds have been defending. The 2.92 on Wolves looks cracking value.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Wolves to beat Leeds at 2.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeewol
MATCH STATS
● Leeds have lost their last five league games against Wolves, scoring just one goal in the process. They’ve only had six longer such losing runs against an opponent, most recently against Derby County between 2006 and 2013 (9 in a row).
● Wolves have won their last three away league games against Leeds without conceding a single goal. They had only won three of their previous 25 league games at Elland Road before this (D4 L18).
● Wolves have won seven of their last 11 away league games in Yorkshire (D1 L3), including each of their last two against Sheffield United and Leeds. Wolves are looking to win three consecutive away top-flight matches in Yorkshire for the first time since December 1952 (two wins vs Huddersfield, one win vs Sheffield Wednesday).
● Six points from eight games marks Leeds United’s worst start to a league campaign since 1988-89 (also 6). Having scored 12 goals in their final four games in the Premier League last season (W4), Leeds have netted just seven times in their eight games this term (W1 D3 L4).
● Wolves have won four of their last five Premier League games, more than they had in their previous 16 before this (W3 D3 L10). Wolves are looking to win four consecutive top-flight matches for the first time since January 1972.
● After scoring just two goals from their first 85 shots in the Premier League this season, one of which was an own goal (2.4% conversion), Wolves have found the net with six of their last 18 attempts in the competition (33.3% conversion).
● Leeds have faced more shots on target than any other side in the Premier League this season (48). Meanwhile, the Whites are averaging just 3.9 shots on target per game this season, compared to 5.2 in the competition last term.
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, 66% of Wolves’ goals in the competition have come in the second half of games (94/142) – the highest ratio of any side to have had more than one campaign in the competition in that time.
● No side has conceded more second half goals in the Premier League than Leeds this season (11). Meanwhile, Wolves have the second-highest ratio of goals scored after half-time this term (88% – 7/8) and the outright lowest ratio conceded in the second period (38% – 3/8).
● All 11 of Rúben Neves’ shots for Wolves in the Premier League this season have come from outside the box, with the midfielder netting the winner against Aston Villa last time out. Only John McGinn (12) has had more shots in the competition this season without any being inside the box.
SOUTHAMPTON V BURNLEY
3pm We finish the 3pm games with a big game towards the end of the Premier League. Southampton fans won’t like me saying that, but they did only record their first win last weekend. In fairness to Southampton, despite hanging around the relegation places they haven’t been playing too bad and they were very impressive against Leeds last weekend. They did a complete number on Leeds dominating the game – xG finished 2.13 to 0.39. They have a great chance to add to their first win of the season with a follow up win here against an average Burnley side. Burnley are currently in the bottom three, and obviously with the takeover at Newcastle they’re going to come until immense pressure. Newcastle will likely jump over them at some stage, and then with Leeds in 17th and Southampton also starting to win games – who are they going to catch? I can see Watford dropping down, but other than that it’s going to be hard work for Burnley.
That makes games like this absolutely vital for Burnley – even this early in the season. I know Newcastle have to pull themselves out of the relegation zone and that won’t be easy given they haven’t added any new players yet and the new manager will also need time, but it does leave Burnley it a tough spot. They have been creating more chances than they usually do, and they won’t go down without a fight. They are bumping into a confident Southampton side here though, but I feel the odds are a little off here. I know Burnley are a limited side, but they actually haven’t been that bad this season. Like I said, they are creating more than ever. For example, in their 1-0 loss to Arsenal the game finished 1.11 to 0.99 on xG in Burnley’s favour. I feel they are grind out a result here, and the draw is worth a small bet at 3.6. Southampton look a little short at 2.06 in my opinion for what should be a close game.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSoubur
MATCH STATS
● Southampton won home and away against Burnley in the Premier League last season, as many victories as they’d managed in their first 10 meetings with them in the competition before then (D3 L5).
● Burnley have won two of their last four away league games against Southampton (D1 L1), as many as they’d managed in their first 25 away league meetings with them prior to this (W2 D10 L13).
● Southampton have kept two clean sheets in their last three home league games, after a run of 11 without one at St Mary’s. However, Saints have netted just twice in their last five Premier League games at home.
● No team in the top four tiers of English league football is on a longer current winless run than Burnley (11 – D3 L8), with the Clarets failing to score on seven occasions in that run.
● Southampton have conceded just one goal in the first half of Premier League games so far this season, with only Manchester City shipping fewer in the opening 45 minutes (0). However, Saints have only scored twice before half-time themselves so far this term.
● All five of Burnley’s Premier League goals this season have put them ahead in the match (including twice against Leicester). However, the Clarets are still without a win, dropping a joint-high 10 points from winning positions in the Premier League this term (along with Newcastle).
● Burnley have the oldest average starting XI age in the Premier League so far this season (29 years), while only Arsenal and Brentford have a younger average age among starters than Southampton (25y 301d).
● In their 1-0 victory against Leeds last time out, Armando Broja became the first ever Albanian to score in the Premier League, while he was also the youngest player to score on his first Premier League start for Southampton (20y 36d).
● Adam Armstrong has had 21 shots in the Premier League this season, at least six more than any other Southampton player. He scored with his second shot of the campaign on MD1 against Everton, but hasn’t found the net with any of his subsequent 19 attempts.
● Only Bryan Mbeumo (102) has made more targeted runs (a run off the ball in which a teammate specifically looks to find them with a pass) than Burnley’s Chris Wood in the Premier League so far this season (101). However, Wood has been flagged offside more than any other player so far this term (11).
BRIGHTON V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm We finish the day with Brighton hosting Man City and this should be a good game! Although City have suffered a few setbacks already this season, they have been playing superb football – they actually look unstoppable in their current form. I know they will likely suffer with bad luck and such throughout the season, but they are creating a huge volume of chances. Raheem Sterling made the headlines this week saying he would be open to leaving. That would be a shame for City, but when you look at the xG figures I’m not sure why Guardiola would want to change much at the moment. Even in the 2-0 loss to PSG in the Champions League – they were incredibly unlucky as the game finished 1.71 to 0.57 on xG to City. They just need to keep playing how they are playing – and perhaps add a striker in the transfer window! Ronaldo is scoring goals for fun at United, but could you imagine how many he’d score at City with that kind of service?
Onto today, and City have their work cut out here. Brighton have been playing some good football for a number of seasons now, but they’re finally starting to get results. They come into this game off the back of three draws but they were unlucky not to beat Arsenal here before the International Break. They bossed the game, and it will be interesting to see how they deal with City. I feel the 1.43 on City is too short to get involved with, but I expect them to get the job done. Both sides play an attacking style of play, and they could easily gel together for a fantastic game here. Over 2.5 goals looks the value play at 1.87 in what should be an open and entertaining game to finish the day!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBrimci
MATCH STATS
● Having lost their first seven Premier League games against Man City by an aggregate score of 21-2, Brighton came from 0-2 down to win 3-2 in their last such meeting in May.
● Manchester City have never lost back-to-back league meetings with Brighton, overall losing just four of their 22 previous such games against the Seagulls (W14 D4 L4).
● Brighton scored more goals in their last match against Manchester City (3) than they had in their previous eight games against them in all competitions (2).
● Each of Brighton’s last three Premier League games have finished level, with their last two finishing 0-0. Since their promotion to the competition in 2017, the Seagulls have had more draws (53) and more goalless draws (19) than any other side in the competition.
● Since their 3-2 defeat against Brighton in May, Manchester City have conceded just three further goals in their nine Premier League games (W6 D2 L1), keeping seven clean sheets in that run. Including that loss at Brighton, each of the Citizens’ last seven goals conceded in the competition have come in the second half of games.
● Between them, Manchester City (12) and Brighton (21) have faced the fewest shots on target in the Premier League this season, while they are also two of the three sides to have the lowest xG against totals in the competition this term (Man City 4.8, Brighton 8.1).
● Brighton have been shown more yellow cards than any other side in the Premier League this season (22), with no player picking up more bookings than Seagulls defender Joël Veltman (4).
● No player has created more chances from set plays this season than Brighton’s Pascal Groß (11), while of all players with at least 10 chances created this term, the German has the highest share from set piece situations (69% – 11/16).
● Man City’s Raheem Sterling has scored four goals in four Premier League starts against Brighton, netting a hat-trick on his last visit to the Amex Stadium in July 2020. However, Sterling has scored just once from 13 attempts in the Premier League so far this season.
● Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has scored in consecutive Premier League games for the first time since September 2020. Only once before has the Belgian scored in three consecutive appearances in the competition, doing so in September/October 2015.
