SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League action which includes SPURS v MAN U at 5.30pm. All matches include a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
LEICESTER V ARSENAL
12.30pm We have a proper Super Saturday this week in the Premier League and all football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! Saturday is a day when we have it all, interesting fixtures, interesting markets and plenty of talking points. Obviously the manager situation at Man United will make the headlines, but we start with a huge game as Leicester host Arsenal. After having a poor start to the season, both sides come into this game on a winning run. Brenden Rodgers was never quite under pressure, but he was coming close to feeling the heat before Leicester beat Manchester United, while Arsenal have put together a confidence boosting unbeaten run. As always with Arsenal though a loss is never far away, and they have had a relatively easy fixture list.
You can easily understand why we have a pretty open market here. Leicester deserve to be favourites though as Arsenal always tend to struggle away from home in these types of games. We have landed some nice bets on Arsenal in their last two games, but I’m happy to switch back to being against them. As I said at the time, they played Aston Villa and Leeds at a good time and you only have to skip back a few games to see they were lucky to get a 0-0 draw away to Brighton. It seems Arsenal just don’t cope with pressure and that’s what Leicester will apply here. Even though Leicester have had a very slow start – they are still level on points with Arsenal and they have been creating some better chances in recent games. I feel this is a good time to back Leicester, and they look good value at 2.54 to beat an average Arsenal side.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Leicester to beat Arsenal at 2.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeiars
MATCH STATS
● After a 22-game winless run against Arsenal in the Premier League between 1995 and 2018, Leicester have won four of their last seven against the Gunners in the competition (D1 L2).
● Arsenal won twice away against Leicester last season – 2-0 in the League Cup and 3-1 in the Premier League. They’ve not won three consecutive away games against the Foxes in all competitions since September 1925.
● Leicester have won their last two Premier League games, beating Manchester United and Brentford, and are looking for three consecutive league wins for the first time since winning their first three games in 2021 against Newcastle, Southampton and Chelsea.
● Having lost consecutive away Premier League games at the start of February (vs Wolves & Aston Villa), Arsenal have since lost just two of their 11 league games on the road (W6 D3). However, Arsenal have won just one of their last 12 away Premier League matches on a Saturday that have kicked off before 1pm (D5 L6), beating Fulham 3-0 on MD1 last season.
● Arsenal have scored just one goal in their four Premier League away games so far this season, with only Norwich (6) having fewer attempts on target on the road than the Gunners (9).
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored more Premier League goals against Arsenal than he has vs any other side in the competition (11). In fact, only Wayne Rooney (12) has netted more against the Gunners in the competition than Vardy.
● Four of Brendan Rodgers’ five league wins against Arsenal have come on home soil, winning once with Swansea, once with Liverpool and three times with current club Leicester.
● Despite playing just 84 Premier League minutes this season – all as a substitute – Patson Daka has been directly involved in two goals for Leicester (one goal, one assist), scoring in his only appearance at the King Power Stadium. The only two Foxes players to score in their first two home Premier League appearances for the club are Julian Joachim (1994 at Filbert Street) and Leonardo Ulloa (2014).
● Two of the four players aged 21 or younger to create more than 10 chances in the Premier League this season are Arsenal duo Emile Smith Rowe (13) and Bukayo Saka (14), with Smith Rowe assisting in two of his last four Premier League appearances.
● Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been involved in five goals in his last six Premier League appearances (4 goals, 1 assist). However, all of these have been in home games, with his last goal away from the Emirates coming at Newcastle in May.
BURNLEY V BRENTFORD
3pm We start the 3pm games with the most open market of the day! Both sides are actually trading the same price at the time of writing – easy to know the market expects a close game. Although a draw against Southampton kept Burnley in the bottom three last weekend, they wouldn’t have been unhappy with the result. They might have been a little unhappy with the performance however as Southampton created a much bigger xG than them, however that result keeps them within touching distance. They desperately need a win soon though because Southampton and Leeds will start to pick up points soon, and we all know Newcastle will spend money in the transfer window. Burnley are under immense pressure, and they need to pick up points in games like this.
Although Burnley desperately need a result here, I don’t see them getting it. Brentford have been excellent since coming up from the Championship and I would have them as favourites for this game. They were unlucky to lose their last two Premier League games against Chelsea and Leicester, and it was nice to see them bounce back with an away win against Stoke in the Carabao Cup midweek. Their loss against Chelsea was one of the most unlucky results of the season – they created an xG of 2.16 and conceded 0.31! They have been playing some excellent football in general this season, and although Burnley have been better than the bottom three, Brentford should have too much attacking firepower for Burnley here. The 2.82 is too big in my opinion, and it’s a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Brentford to beat Burnley at 2.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBurbre
MATCH STATS
● Burnley have won their last four meetings with Brentford in all competitions, most recently beating the Bees home and away in the 2015-16 Championship campaign.
● Brentford have won just one of their last 12 away games against Burnley in all competitions (D5 L6), winning 2-1 in a third-tier match in December 1996. This will be the first ever top-flight meeting between the two sides.
● Burnley haven’t won any of their last five home league games against promoted sides (D3 L2), having won six of their eight such games before this (D2).
● Burnley have opened the scoring in five different Premier League games this season but have yet to win any of them (D3 L2). Indeed, the Clarets have dropped more points from winning positions than any other side in the Premier League this term (12).
● For the fourth time in top-flight history, Burnley have failed to win any of their opening nine games of a campaign, also doing so in 1889-90, 1970-71 and 2014-15. In each of those three campaigns, the Clarets also failed to win their 10th game of the season and finished in bottom two of the table each time.
● Brentford are yet to lose away from home in the Premier League this season (P4 W2 D2), with Hull City the last team to go unbeaten in their first five away Premier League games in 2008-09. The last team to win as many as three of their first five away games in the competition was Blackpool in 2010-11.
● Brentford are unbeaten in their last 10 away league games (excl. play-offs), last enjoying a longer run between October 2013 and March 2014 (11 in a row). The Bees are also looking to record three consecutive away top-flight wins for the first time in their history.
● Burnley have allowed their opponents more touches in their box than any other team in the Premier League this season (286) with three of the four instances of a team having 50+ touches in their opponent’s box coming against the Clarets – Liverpool (50), Leicester (50) and Man City (52).
● Maxwel Cornet has scored three goals in four league games for Burnley this season, having netted just twice in 36 top-flight appearances for Lyon last term.
● Brentford defender Zanka has scored in four Premier League matches (three for Huddersfield Town, one for Brentford) and ended on the losing side in all four, the worst 100% losing record of any player in Premier League history.
LIVERPOOL V BRIGHTON
3pm Next we have two very short odds favourites, I am sure plenty of football punters will have Liverpool and Man City in their BETDAQ Multiple today! Liverpool have the more tricky fixture than City however, as they face a Brighton side who have been playing good football this season. They have been finally starting to get some results, although they do come here without a win in their last five in all competitions, with four of those games finishing a draw and then they lost 4-1 to City last weekend. Liverpool have been in fantastic form and if everyone can stay fit then Liverpool will be hard to beat for the title this season. Mo Salah is definitely the best player in the world at the moment, and he bossed the show in Old Trafford last weekend. Although the 5-0 win made a huge amount of headlines, we can’t get too carried away – United were terrible in midfield and tougher tests will come for Liverpool.
Although Brighton won’t roll over and they’ll be a tough challenge for Liverpool, it’s impossible to see past a Liverpool win here given the form they are in at the moment. The volume of chances they have been creating in recent weeks has been very impressive and after a disappointing season last season, they have bounced right back to their title winning form. If everyone stays fit, Liverpool will top the table by the New Year in my opinion. For today, I can see them scoring early and staying ahead. Liverpool/Liverpool Half-Time/Full-Time looks excellent value at 1.8 and this should be a one way traffic win for the home side.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Liverpool/Liverpool Half-Time/Full-Time at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLivbri
MATCH STATS
● Having won their first six Premier League meetings with Brighton, Liverpool picked up just one point in their two meetings with the Seagulls last season, losing 1-0 in this exact fixture in February.
● Following their 1-0 win at Anfield in February, Brighton are looking to secure back-to-back victories against Liverpool in all competitions for the first time. Indeed, the Seagulls have won just five of their previous 33 meetings in total against the Reds (D9 L19).
● Liverpool have won 5-0 in their last two Premier League games, beating Watford and Man Utd. They are looking to become the fourth side to win three top-flight games in a row by 5+ goals, after Aston Villa in 1899, Chelsea in 2010 and Manchester City in 2017.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 19 Premier League matches (W14 D5). They’ve had two previous runs of 20+ unbeaten games in the Premier League under manager Jürgen Klopp (21 games between May and December 2018 & 44 games between January 2019 and February 2020) and Klopp could become the third manager to have three separate such runs, after Sir Alex Ferguson (six) and Arsène Wenger (four).
● Brighton conceded four goals for the first time in 43 Premier League matches against Man City last time out, shipping as many goals in that 4-1 loss as they had in their previous seven league matches combined.
● Liverpool have scored 27 goals in their nine Premier League matches this season, their best tally at this stage of a top-flight season since 1987-88 when they’d scored 28 and went on to win the title.
● Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in nine goals in his eight Premier League games against Brighton (5 goals, 4 assists), only failing to score or assist against the Seagulls twice (2-1 in November 2019, 0-1 in February last season).
● Liverpool forward Sadio Mané has never scored in six Premier League meetings with Brighton – the Seagulls are the only side he’s faced more than once in the competition without ever finding the net.
● Mohamed Salah’s hat-trick at Old Trafford last week took the Liverpool forward to 10 Premier League goals after just nine games this season, only the third player to reach double figures before their side’s 10th game of a campaign after Les Ferdinand (Newcastle) in 1995-96 and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton) last season.
● Brighton’s Alexis Mac Allister has scored two goals in his seven Premier League games this season, having netted just once in his first 30 appearances in the competition. All three of the Argentine’s Premier League goals have been scored as a substitute.
MANCHESTER CITY V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Next we have the shortest price of the day in the Premier League as Manchester City host Crystal Palace. It was an end of an era on Wednesday night as Manchester City crashed out of the Carabao Cup – that’s the first time they’ve been knocked out since 2017! At least it gives someone else a chance of a trophy – a Cup win for Spurs or Arsenal would be massive this season given how poor they have been in the Premier League for example. In the grand scheme of things, Guardiola won’t be too fussed about the Carabao Cup but he will want a bounce back win here. City will start today two points behind Chelsea and one point behind Liverpool – they have a lot of work to do in the Premier League. Chelsea really came up short against both City and Liverpool when the sides met, but they are putting the smaller sides to the sword and Liverpool look in incredible form. City can’t afford any slip ups in games like this.
Crystal Palace come into this game after putting four draws together, and they were actually very unlucky not to beat Newcastle last weekend – they had to settle for a 1-1 draw but they created an xG of 2.38. That was a good performance, but we must remember Newcastle are in the bottom three. It’s almost impossible to see City not winning here, and it’s probably a case of how many goals rather than will they actually win. There’s plenty of options here, but I can only see a smooth City win – it just depends how you want to play it. I like City -1.5 goals on the handicap at 1.54. I feel Palace will set up very negatively and try to grind out a draw, but City should win by two or more.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Crystal Palace at 1.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMcicry
MATCH STATS
● Manchester City have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace (W9 D2), going down 3-2 at home in December 2018.
● Since they returned to the Premier League in 2013-14, Crystal Palace conceded 39 goals in 16 Premier League meetings with Man City, keeping just one clean sheet in the process. The Eagles have also failed to score in 11 of those 16 meetings.
● Man City have lost just one of their last 50 Premier League games that have kicked off at 3 o’clock on a Saturday (W43 D6), though it was a 2-3 defeat to Crystal Palace in December 2018.
● After losing 1-0 at Spurs on the opening weekend, Manchester City are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games (W6 D2). The Citizens are also yet to concede a goal at home in the Premier League so far this term.
● Crystal Palace have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last six away Premier League games (15 conceded) – they’ve never conceded 2+ goals in seven consecutive away matches in the competition.
● 91% of Crystal Palace’s Premier League goals this season have been scored in the second half of games (10/11), the highest ratio in the division. The Eagles’ only goal before half-time this season came in first-half stoppage time in their 1-1 draw against Brighton.
● This will be Man City boss Pep Guardiola’s 200th Premier League game in charge (currently W146 D25 L28). Whatever the result, the Spaniard has already won more of his first 200 in the competition than any other manager to reach the milestone.
● Crystal Palace striker Christian Benteke has made more Premier League appearances without scoring against Man City (13) than vs any other side. Following his goal against Arsenal, the Belgian forward now has five goals in his last 10 away league games, as many as in his previous 32.
● Gabriel Jesus has been involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League starts for Manchester City, scoring three and assisting six. The Brazilian has five Premier League assists in total this season, only providing more in a single campaign in 2019-20 (7).
● With two goals and one assist last time out against Brighton, Man City’s Phil Foden was involved in at least three goals in a Premier League game for the first time. However, the young Englishman has only had a hand in five goals in his last 21 Premier League appearances at the Etihad Stadium (2 goals, 3 assists).
NEWCASTLE V CHELSEA
3pm The fixture list doesn’t get easier for Newcastle’s new owners as they face Chelsea on Saturday afternoon! On paper, Newcastle had a brilliant chance to notch up their first win for their new owners against Crystal Palace last weekend however they had to “settle” for a 1-1 draw. I say settle in comma’s because Crystal Palace should have won – the game finished 2.38 to 0.99 on xG to Crystal Palace. Perhaps it was a reminder, in case we had forgot, that Newcastle can’t bring in any new players yet and they still have the same squad that are in the bottom three. You’d imagine things will change in the New Year, but it will be interesting to see where they are actually starting from. It would be remarkable scenes if they actually went down!
They face a Chelsea side here that are in superb form. I won’t read too much into their midweek League Cup game, but they hammered Norwich 7-0 last weekend and then put four past Malmo in the Champions League prior to that. As I said above, they came up well short when they bumped into Liverpool and Man City but they have been dealing with the smaller sides easily. That spells trouble for this Newcastle side, who despite the obvious investment coming they are an average side at the moment. This should be a smooth win for Chelsea, and they are overpriced at 1.41 too. I wouldn’t usually back 1.4ish shots, but Chelsea are worth it here with 0% Commission.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Chelsea to beat Newcastle at 1.41 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNewche
MATCH STATS
● Newcastle have lost five of their last six Premier League meetings with Chelsea, winning the other 1-0 in January 2020.
● Chelsea have won two of their last three Premier League away games against Newcastle (L1), more than they had in their previous seven visits to St James’ Park (W1 D2 L4).
● Since the start of last season, Newcastle have conceded more home league goals (43) and kept fewer home league clean sheets (two) than any other ever-present Premier League side over the two campaigns. The Magpies are yet to keep a league clean sheet at St. James’ Park this season.
● Newcastle are without a win in their nine league games so far this season. Only twice in their history have the Magpies failed to win any of their opening 10 games to a league campaign, though they avoided relegation at the end of the season both times (1898-99 and 2018-19).
● Chelsea are looking to win four consecutive Premier League matches under Thomas Tuchel for the second time. They previously did so in February, with the fourth game in that run coming against Newcastle United.
● Chelsea have already had 14 different goalscorers in the Premier League this season, the earliest in a campaign any team has ever had as many players score for them in the competition (excluding own goals).
● Chelsea have the best difference between goals scored (23) and expected goals (15) in the Premier League this season, netting eight goals more than their xG suggests. At the other end, Chelsea have conceded (3) almost eight goals fewer than their xG against (10.7), also the best difference in the division.
● Mason Mount has been involved in more Premier League goals for Chelsea under manager Thomas Tuchel than any other player at the club (11 – 7 goals, 4 assists), with the England midfielder netting a hat-trick against Norwich last time out.
● Newcastle striker Callum Wilson has scored six goals in his last six Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 21 in the competition. He’s looking to score in four consecutive appearances in the competition for the second time, previously doing so in September 2019 with Bournemouth.
● Ben Chilwell has scored in each of his last four Premier League appearances for Chelsea (4 goals). He’d only scored two goals in his first 26 games for the club in the competition.
WATFORD V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm We finish the 3pm games with a massive game towards the bottom of the table. We have an open market, and we should have a pretty close game too. Although Newcastle haven’t gained any points yet since their takeover, the injection of cash does mix things up down the bottom of the table. Southampton are probably too good to go down, but they are definitely in the mix looking at the sides below them – you’d assume Leeds will turn things around too. I feel Leeds and Southampton, and possibly Newcastle with all their money can jump up the table so that leaves the likes of Watford and Crystal Palace in trouble. Particularly Watford to be honest looking at their xG figures – however they managed to beat Everton 5-2 last weekend which came from nowhere!
Everton took the lead twice, but Watford scored four goals in the last 12 minutes to bag a massive three points. Southampton have also been picking up points lately – they drew 2-2 with Burnley last weekend but they were the better side and they beat Leeds prior to that. Despite where they are in the table, Southampton have actually been playing some decent football this season. They have been the best side towards the bottom, and don’t really deserve to be there. I know Watford shocked us last weekend, but I’d have to see more to change my opinion on the. Southampton can grind out a win here, and they are worth backing at 2.4.
The Striker Says:
One point win Southampton to beat Watford at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWatsou
MATCH STATS
● Watford have won just one of their last 13 league meetings with Southampton (D6 L6), beating them 2-0 at St Mary’s in September 2017.
● Southampton haven’t lost an away league match against Watford since September 2007 in the Championship (W3 D4 since), beating them 3-1 in their last such visit in June 2020.
● Watford are looking to win back-to-back Premier League matches for the first time since July 2020 (vs Norwich and Newcastle). The Hornets scored more goals in their 5-2 win against Everton last time out than they had in their previous seven league games combined (4).
● After losing 5-0 to Liverpool in their last home league game, Watford could lose back-to-back Premier League games at Vicarage Road for the first time since November 2019. Meanwhile, the Hornets are without a clean sheet in nine home Premier League games, conceding 20 goals in this run (2.2 per game).
● Southampton have won just one of their last 17 away league matches (D4 L12), beating Sheffield United 2-0 in March of last season. Saints are winless in nine away league outings overall (D2 L7), last going 10 without a win on the road in September 2015.
● Since Ralph Hasenhüttl’s first game in charge in December 2018, Southampton have dropped more points from winning positions than any other side in the Premier League (64), with Saints dropping a further two points against Burnley last time out.
● Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has scored more Premier League goals against Watford than any other side (four), netting a direct free-kick against them in both meetings in 2019-20.
● Fresh from his hat-trick against Everton last time out, Watford’s Josh King is looking to score in back-to-back Premier League games for the first time since January 2019. However, the Norwegian has netted just one goal in his 11 top-flight appearances against Southampton.
● 20-year-old Armando Broja has scored in both of his Premier League starts for Southampton so far – if he starts and scores here, he’d be the first player under 21 to score in each of his first three starts in the competition.
● Southampton’s 18-year-old defender Valentino Livramento has started each of their first nine Premier League games this season – since the turn of the millennium, the only two 18-year-olds to start the first 10 matches of a Premier League season are Micah Richards in 2006-07 for Manchester City and Phil Jones in 2010-11 for Blackburn Rovers.
TOTTENHAM V MANCHESTER UNITED
5.30pm This is the game that makes the headlines today! The only question is what will they be? Will everyone be shouting Ole In or Ole Out? Spurs away is always a tricky tie for Manchester United, but in fairness they couldn’t have asked for a better time to meet Spurs. The London side have been very poor this season, Harry Kane is woefully out of form or he’s just given up on Spurs and is waiting for a transfer. We all know United have a number of issues themselves, but surely they can beat this Spurs side who are equally as bad as United at the back. United definitely look a shade of value here at 2.46, however the big question for me is, would over 2.5 goals at 1.8 be a better selection given these two are terrible at the back? It will be fascinating to see does Ole change tactics after the embarrassing 5-0 defeat to Liverpool last weekend.
My thoughts are that he won’t change his tactics and we’ll see another very open game here. United will continue to have a number of issues at the back – they can beat this Spurs side, but what damage will Man City do to them in a couple of weeks? This is a huge game for both sides here looking at the table – they are going to start the day in 6th or 7th but both have had a difficult time. The loser is under immense pressure in the Top Four race after today. Although I feel United will come out on top, I have to go with over 2.5 goals as my best bet here. United games are packed with goals at the moment because of their midfield issues, and Spurs have been conceding a lot of chances this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 4-2 or 3-3 score line, and overs looks too big at 1.8.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQTotmun
MATCH STATS
● Tottenham have lost more Premier League games against Manchester United than they have versus any other side in the competition (36).
● After a six-game winless run away to Tottenham in the Premier League (D3 L3), Manchester United have won two of their last three visits to Spurs in the competition (D1).
● Just one of the last six Premier League matches between Tottenham and Manchester United have been won by the home side, with Manchester United winning 2-1 at Old Trafford in December 2019.
● Manchester United have lost three of their last four Premier League matches (D1), as many as in their previous 37 league games (W23 D11). The Red Devils have not lost three Premier League games in a row since December 2015 under Louis van Gaal.
● Manchester United’s record 29-game away unbeaten run in the Premier League ended in their last match on the road against Leicester. They last lost consecutive away games in the competition in the two matches that preceded their unbeaten run – against Arsenal and Liverpool in January 2020.
● Nuno Espírito Santo has lost four of his first nine Premier League matches as Spurs manager (W5) – the only manager to lose more than four of his first 10 Premier League games in charge of Tottenham was Christian Gross in 1997-98, who lost five.
● Manchester United have conceded 10 Premier League goals this October, more than any other side. They have only conceded more than 10 in two calendar months, shipping 11 in October 1996 and December 2018. They have also conceded 4+ goals in their last two league games (2-4 vs Leicester, 0-5 vs Liverpool), last doing so in more consecutive league games in December 1961 (three in a row).
● Tottenham’s Son Heung-min had a hand in four goals in his two games against Manchester United last season (3 goals, 1assist), having failed to register a single goal involvement in his first eight appearances against the Red Devils.
● Mason Greenwood has scored five goals in his last seven away Premier League appearances and nine overall on the road for Manchester United – at 20 years and 29 days on the day of this game, he could become the youngest player to score 10 away Premier League goals since Wayne Rooney (19y 21d) in November 2004, with Rooney scoring his 10th goal away at Newcastle for Manchester United.
● After netting three goals in his first two Premier League appearances for Man Utd this season, Cristiano Ronaldo hasn’t scored in any of his last four league matches, his worst run since November 2017 for Real Madrid (also four in a row). He hasn’t gone five in a row without a goal since a run of nine for the Red Devils between November 2008 and January 2009.
