SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games starting with ARSENAL v NEWCASTLE at 12.30pm. All games previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
ARSENAL V NEWCASTLE
12.30pm We roll into another big weekend in the Premier League on Saturday and we have a very busy run coming up. We had Champions League action midweek, but next week we have a full fixture list of Premier League games before another next weekend. It’s certainly going to be a very interesting time as we run into Christmas, and we have an interesting day ahead here! All football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and we kick off Saturday with Arsenal hosting Newcastle. Arsenal were played off the park last weekend away to Liverpool, and although it was nice to land a four point bet on Liverpool, it really highlighted just how far away Arsenal are from the top clubs. I know most of us knew that, but they did go into that game on a winning run and playing with confidence. They find themselves in fifth which is fantastic given the way they have played at times this season, and in fairness given the issues at Manchester United you’d have to say they are in the battle for the Top Four this season.
Compare that situation to Newcastle who sit rock bottom after drawing with Brentford last weekend. It was a crazy game which ended 3-3, but it leaves Newcastle under immense pressure. I doubt they imagined that Norwich would go past them, and now they finished themselves two points behind Norwich! We all know they have almost unlimited money to spend after their takeover, but you have to start to wonder what kind of place they will be in with this squad at Christmas time. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but was it the right decision sacking Steve Bruce? He was getting something from the current squad and now it’s odds on Newcastle will go down even with all that money. Incredible. For today, I can’t see past an Arsenal win. I fully accept backing Arsenal comes with a wealth warning so I’ll keep stakes limited, however we have had some success on Arsenal in recent weeks against weaker opposition. Newcastle just aren’t playing well enough to put Arsenal under pressure, and when Arsenal have time on the ball at home they tend to win easily.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Arsenal to beat Newcastle at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQArsnew
MATCH STATS
● Arsenal have won 16 of their last 17 Premier League games against Newcastle, with the exception being a 2-1 away loss in April 2018.
● Since a 1-0 victory in November 2010, Newcastle have lost each of their last nine away league games against Arsenal, failing to score in each of the last five.
● Arsenal have scored at least once in each of their last 17 Premier League games against Newcastle. The Gunners have opened the scoring in their last 16 against Newcastle, the longest run one team has had scoring first against another in the competition’s history.
● Arsenal have never lost a Premier League home game against the side starting the day bottom of the table (W15 D6), winning the last eight in a row by an aggregate score of 23-2.
● Arsenal lost at Liverpool last time out, ending their eight-game unbeaten run in the Premier League (W6 D2). Indeed, the Gunners conceded as many goals in their 4-0 loss at Anfield as they had in their eight-game run combined.
● Newcastle are the only side still without a win in the top four tiers of English league football this season (D6 L6). Their current run of 12 Premier League games without a win is their longest since a run of 13 between December 2007 and March 2008.
● No side have conceded more Premier League goals than Newcastle this season (27), with the Magpies still yet to keep a clean sheet this term. However, they’ve scored more goals (15) than opponents Arsenal (13) so far this term.
● Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been involved in nine goals in his eight appearances for Arsenal against Newcastle in all competitions (6 goals, 3 assists), scoring in each of his last five against the Magpies.
● Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has taken just five points from 30 available in his Premier League meetings with Arsenal (W1 D2 L7), losing all five of his visits to the Emirates to face the Gunners.
● Newcastle’s Allan Saint-Maximin has carried the ball further than any other player in the Premier League this season (2952 metres), while no player has created more chances following a ball carry than the Frenchman (13, level with Jack Grealish).
CRYSTAL PALACE V ASTON VILLA
3pm What a difference a week makes in football! Spirits are high in the Aston Villa camp after their 2-0 win over Brighton last weekend and with the appointment of Steven Gerrard along with his first win, the club is bound to be full of optimism. That win moved Villa up to 15th, and if they had lost they’d be sitting in 17th just one point outside the relegation zone. I still feel that Villa are in the mix to go down, but in reality they are too good to go down and with the new manager coming in they only have to put a few wins together to shoot up this table. Gerrard will be a popular appointment too and very easy for the fans to get behind the team. The reality is however that they didn’t play that play against Brighton – it was a very even game and neither side created a lot – it could have easily been a draw. It will be very interesting to see how they get on here, as Palace come into the game on an unbeaten run, including a very impressive 2-0 win over Wolves in their last home game.
Palace have had their fair share of luck on their unbeaten run – they benefited hugely from Man City having a man sent off, but to their credit they took full advantage and won 2-0, and they were also lucky to draw 2-2 away to Arsenal. When you compare the home and away performances for Palace, it’s clear to see that they enjoy playing at home – they have put in a number of impressive performances here this season. They’ve yet to be beaten at home, and could have picked up more points – they should beaten Newcastle with the xG of that game finished 2.38 to 0.99. I’m not a huge fan of Palace by any means, but I feel this is a good time to back them. I know Aston Villa will still be on a high, but I’m going to need to see a proper performance from them to change my mind – they really need to create more, and it will be fascinating to see what Steven Gerrard can do.
The Striker Says:
One point win Crystal Palace to beat Aston Villa at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCryast
MATCH STATS
● Crystal Palace have won five of their last six home league games against Aston Villa (L1), including each of the last three in a row.
● Aston Villa have won three of their last five Premier League games against Crystal Palace (L2), as many as they had in their first 13 against them in the competition.
● When scoring at least once in Premier League games against Aston Villa, Crystal Palace’s record is P11 W7 D3 L1, winning the last six such games. However, the Eagles have failed to score in five of their last eight against the Villans in the competition.
● Crystal Palace are unbeaten at home in the Premier League so far this season (W2 D4). They last avoided defeat in their first seven home games of a league campaign in 1993-94 (second tier), while they last did so in the top-flight in 1990-91.
● Crystal Palace are without defeat in their last seven Premier League games (W2 D5), the longest current unbeaten run in the competition. The Eagles themselves last had a longer unbeaten run in the competition in December 2017 (8 games).
● Aston Villa got off to a winning start under Steven Gerrard against Brighton last time out – the only manager to win both of his first two Premier League games in charge of the Villans was John Gregory in March 1998.
● Aston Villa have lost their last three Premier League away games, last losing more in a row on the road in the competition between February 2016 and September 2019 (10).
● Christian Benteke’s last eight Premier League goals have either put Crystal Palace ahead (4) or been an equalising goal (4). Indeed, 71% of his overall Premier League goals have altered the result at that point in the match (61/86) – among players to score at least 60 Premier League goals, only Dion Dublin (72%) has scored a higher share of this type.
● Against no side has Aston Villa striker Danny Ings scored more Premier League goals than he has against Crystal Palace (5). However, after scoring (2) or assisting (2) four goals in his first five league appearances for the Villans, Ings has netted just once more (0 assists) in his last five games.
● As players, Crystal Palace manager Patrick Vieira and Aston Villa boss Steven Gerrard met nine times in the Premier League. Gerrard didn’t lose any of the first six such meetings (W3 D3), with Vieira winning two of the last three (L1).
LIVERPOOL V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm We have the shortest price of the day in this fixture as Liverpool host Southampton. The market is very confident on an easy home win here with Liverpool trading 1.32 at the time of writing. Liverpool have been absolutely fantastic this season, but they have had a number of setbacks – they had to settle for a 2-2 draw against Brighton having had a 2-0 lead and then lost 3-2 to West Ham prior to the International break. Southampton are down towards the bottom of the table, but they haven’t been playing badly. They are likely to put XI men behind the ball here and set out for a draw – they have been playing solid football, so you couldn’t rule out a shock here. They had pretty good momentum but that 2-1 loss to Norwich came from nowhere! It’s hard to see past a Liverpool win here to be honest, but I feel Southampton will make life pretty difficult for them.
There’s a number of ways to play this in my opinion. The simplest one is to lay Liverpool from a value point of view, expecting a closer game than the odds suggest. However I feel the better options are backing unders in the goals market and Southampton in the handicap markets. Under 2.5 goals looks very good value at 3.0 as the market is expecting an easy win for Liverpool, while Southampton are trading 2.08 with a 1.5 goal handicap. I much prefer the unders option here as it also allows for a 2-0 Liverpool win. I feel it’s unlikely that Southampton will score here – they haven’t exactly been banging in goals for fun against weaker sides, and Liverpool will have to grind out a win here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1-0 Liverpool win, even though they have had a couple of recent 2-0 wins.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 3.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLivsou
MATCH STATS
● Liverpool have won seven of their last eight Premier League games against Southampton, with the exception being a 1-0 away loss in January last season.
● Since a 1-0 win in September 2013, Southampton are winless in their last seven away league games against Liverpool (W5 D2), losing their last four at Anfield by an aggregate score of 12-0.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 25 Premier League games kicking off at 3pm on Saturday (W22 D3) since a 2-0 loss at Hull in February 2017. The Reds’ last such loss at home was against West Ham in August 2015 under Brendan Rodgers (W18 D5 since).
● Liverpool are the only team to have scored in all 12 of their Premier League games this season. The Reds have found the net in each of their last 22 league games overall, netting at least twice in 18 of those including each of the last nine.
● Liverpool have scored more goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (35), while only Norwich (7) have scored fewer than Southampton (11). Indeed, Liverpool have scored more first-half goals (16) and more second half goals (19) than Saints have in total in the Premier League this term.
● Southampton have lost 13 of their 17 Premier League away games in 2021 (W2 D2), conceding 43 goals in this run (2.5 per game). Indeed, Saints have lost more games and conceded more goals away from home than any other Premier League side in this calendar year so far.
● Excluding blocked shots, Liverpool have had the highest percentage of their shots go on target so far in the Premier League this season (55%), while only Newcastle (38%) have a lower shooting accuracy than Southampton (42%).
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has made 19 take-ons in the opposition box in the Premier League this season season, at least 11 more than any other player in the competition.
● No player has scored the opening goal in more different Premier League games this season than Liverpool’s Sadio Mané (4). In total he’s opened the scoring on 36 occasions in the Premier League since he’s been at Liverpool, with the Reds going on to win 28 of those games (D6 L2).
● Southampton’s Adam Armstrong has scored (1) or assisted (2) a goal in each of his last three Premier League appearances, more than he had in his first 23 games in the competition with Saints and Newcastle combined (1 goal, 1 assist).
NORWICH V WOLVES
3pm This is one of the more interesting markets of the day! Norwich have been boosted by two wins from two games, they’re suddenly off the bottom of the table and obviously have some nice momentum with the club on a high. If you look at the performances, I don’t see that they have improved – it’s more a case of their results have gone their way. When you look at the underlining numbers, nothing much has changed for Norwich. When they beat Brentford 2-1 they conceded an xG of 2.92 and created just 1.24, while when they beat Southampton it was a very tight game as they only created 0.53 and conceded 0.99. They have definitely been trying to keep games tighter recently, apart from the 7-0 loss away to Chelsea obviously, but they deserved draws against Brighton and Burnley, and Leeds too but they ended up losing that game.
That makes this one interesting from a betting point of view. Wolves have been excellent this season, but can they pick up the win here? It all comes down to the odds, and the 2.26 is too big to ignore in my opinion. Wolves have been fantastic this season, and they have been unlucky with their results too. The xG table puts them in fifth and I feel that’s a fair reflection of their form. Apart from the 2-0 loss away to Crystal Palace which came as a surprise, they have been rock solid. It is a worry that they haven’t been too good in their last two away games – they only created an xG of 0.32 away to Crystal Palace and then 1.03 away to Leeds while conceding 1.80. I still feel this game is there for the taking for Wolves, but I’m also happy to keep stakes limited given the small worries – the 2.26 is good value however.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Wolves to beat Norwich at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNorwol
MATCH STATS
● After a run of three consecutive wins against them between 2015 and 2017, Norwich are winless in four league games against Wolves (D1 L3).
● Wolves have won their last two away league games against Norwich, having lost four in a row at Carrow Road before this.
● Norwich City have won their last two Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 35 in the competition. They last won three consecutive games in the division back in December 2012.
● Norwich have scored as many goals (4) in their last two Premier League games as they had in their previous 20 combined. The Canaries are looking to score more than once in three consecutive top-flight games for the first time since August 2013.
● After losing four of their first five Premier League games this season (W1), Wolves have now won five of their last seven (D1 L1). Indeed, no side has taken more points over the last seven Premier League matches than Wolves (16, level with Chelsea and Manchester City).
● Norwich have scored (7) almost three goals fewer than their expected goals (9.7) suggests in the Premier League this season, while Wolves have netted (12) around four goals fewer than their xG (16.4) – only Southampton (11 goals, 15.7 xG) are underperforming in this category more so far this season.
● Norwich manager Dean Smith has already lost at home to Wolves this season, a 3-2 loss while he was at Aston Villa. Only four different managers have ever lost two home games against the same opponent in a single Premier League campaign – Gerry Francis vs Wimbledon (1994-95), Ron Atkinson vs Manchester United (1994-95), Steve Bruce vs Aston Villa and Man Utd (2007-08) and Mark Hughes vs Chelsea (2017-18).
● Norwich got off to a winning start under Dean Smith against Southampton last time out – in their history, Mike Walker is the only manager to win both of his first two top-flight league games in charge of the Canaries, doing so in August 1992.
● Teemu Pukki has scored in his last two Premier League games for Norwich, and is looking to score in three in a row in the competition for the first time since August 2019, when he netted in his first ever three Premier League appearances.
● 45.9% of Raúl Jiménez’s Premier League goals for Wolves have been the winning goal of the game (17/37), with all three of the Mexican’s goals this season proving decisive. Of all players with at least 30 goals in the competition, only Robert Lee (50%) and Mikel Arteta (46.3%) have scored a higher ratio of winners.
BRIGHTON V LEEDS
5.30pm We finish the day with another interesting game from a betting point of view as Brighton host Leeds. I think it’s fair to say that neither side will be happy with their recent performances. After an excellent start to the season, Brighton have been dropping plenty of points lately – they are still happily sitting in the middle of the table which is a nice change from a relegation battle, but they need to turn things around. They didn’t deserve to lose last weekend against Aston Villa, however it’s really just a sign of how things are going. While Leeds are too good to go down, they are in a relegation battle at the moment. They started the weekend sitting in 17th, and if results go against them this weekend they could easily find themselves in the bottom three. They started well against Spurs last weekend, but they let the game slip past them in the second half. Spurs were so poor in the first half, but when they improved in the second half Leeds had no answers.
The problem with Leeds is still the same problem they’ve always had. Their issues at the back will likely never go away! Spurs could barely put two passes together for the first half of the game last weekend, however when they upped their level in the second half they were still able to finish the game with an xG of 2.48. Given Brighton like to play an attacking game and create as many chances as possible, they’re going to get plenty of chances to score here. Leeds will always give away plenty of chances, and if they can’t keep the ball and control the game then they are going to be in big trouble. I am worried about Brighton not winning games recently, however Leeds are a side to take on so far this season. Until I see a change of form from Leeds, I am happy to be against them. With the recent run of Brighton, it’s shrewd to limit stakes but they should create more chances than Leeds here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Brighton to beat Leeds at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBrilee
MATCH STATS
● Brighton have won eight of their last nine league games against Leeds (L1), achieving the double over the Whites in the Premier League last season.
● Leeds have lost their last five away league games against Brighton without scoring a single goal, while their last away league win against the Seagulls was back in November 2009 in League One (3-0).
● Having won four of their first five Premier League games this season, Brighton are now winless in their last seven (D5 L2) – only bottom side Newcastle (12) are on a longer current run without a win than the Seagulls.
● In their first eight Premier League games this season, Brighton conceded just five goals (0.6 per game) and faced just 21 shots on target (2.6 per game). In their last four, the Seagulls have conceded nine goals (2.3 per game) and faced 23 shots on target (5.8 per game).
● Only Burnley (14) and Newcastle (12) have dropped more points from winning positions than Leeds (10) in the Premier League this season. It’s four more points than the Whites dropped in the whole of last season (6).
● Leeds have scored the highest percentage of their goals from outside the box in the Premier League this season, with five of their 12 goals coming from distance (42%). Meanwhile, the Whites are one of just two sides (along with Chelsea) yet to concede a goal from outside the box this term.
● Leeds have converted just 6.9% of their shots in the Premier League this season (12 goals from 175 shots) – only Norwich (5.8%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Marcelo Bielsa’s side this term.
● Brighton’s Neal Maupay has scored four goals in his six league games against Leeds, more than he’s netted against any other side in English league football.
● Since his debut for the club in October 2020, Leeds have won 45% of their Premier League games in which Raphinha has featured (18/40), but have won none of their six matches when the Brazilian has been absent (D2 L4).
● Leeds manager Marcelo Bielsa has won 65% of his Premier League games against English managers (13/20), compared to just 23% versus managers from anywhere but England (7/30).
