PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. The action starts at 12.30pm with Everton v Aston Villa at Goodison.
EVERTON V ASTON VILLA
12.30pm It’s the last Saturday in the Premier League before we take a little break and we have a cracking day in store. All football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange so hopefully we can find some winners. We start the day with one of the biggest talking points of the week as Everton start life without Rafa Benitez. I have to say I was surprised when he decided to take the job, and lasting only six months has left him in a very awkward position. It will be a while before we see him in another high profile league in my opinion, and he might take a big money offer in somewhere like America or China again. He leaves Everton in 16th and while they aren’t in a relegation battle because the bottom four are a little adrift, they actually aren’t far away from it. That’s just how poor they have been this season, and seemingly Benitez did a lot of damage with positions in the backroom staff too, so there’s a lot to mend at Goodison.
Both these clubs come into the game on very different paths. Aston Villa have employed Steven Gerrard and they have been given a massive boost since he arrived. They have managed to attract Coutinho which is obviously a massive win for the club and their results have been very positive too. They created a higher xG than Manchester United in their 2-2 draw last weekend, and they were unlucky to lose to them in the FA Cup as well. They finished the game against Brentford with a higher xG and you’d have to say they were unlucky there too. They are due a bit of luck to be honest, and it will be very interesting to see what type of performance we get from Everton here. Did Benitez lose the dressing room and we can expect a much improved performance? That’s the big question here and I’m happy to keep stakes small – we have a very open market but I don’t see Villa as favourites to be honest, I’d have the prices priced the same almost and I’m happy to back the draw at 3.4.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQEveast
MATCH STATS
● Everton lost this exact fixture 2-1 in May last season – they’ve not lost back-to-back home league games against Aston Villa since March 1998.
● Following their 3-0 win at Villa Park in September, Aston Villa are looking to secure their first league double over Everton since 2000-01.
● Everton were joint-fifth in the clean sheet rankings in the Premier League last season, recording 12 shutouts overall. This season, only Newcastle and Watford have kept fewer clean sheets than the Toffees (3).
● Everton have taken just five points in their last 12 Premier League matches (W1 D2 L9), the fewest they’ve won across a 12-game span since earning four points over 12 games between August and October 1994.
● Aston Villa have conceded seven goals in their last three Premier League games (D1 L2), more than they had in their previous seven in the competition (6).
● Everton have scored fewer first-half goals than any other Premier League side this season (5). The Toffees have failed to score before half-time in their last five games in the competition, last having a longer such run between December 2017 and January 2018 (6).
● Everton have conceded the first goal in their last eight Premier League matches (W1 D1 L6), their longest run in Premier League history. Their previous longest was a seven game run between April and August 1997.
● As a player, Aston Villa manager Steven Gerrard was on the winning side against Everton more often than he was against any other opponent in the Premier League (16) and lost just four of his 30 games against the Toffees. Only against Villa (12) did Gerrard score more Premier League goals than he did against Everton (9).
● Jacob Ramsey had a hand in both of Aston Villa’s goals against Manchester United last time out, scoring one and assisting Philippe Coutinho’s equaliser. Ramsey had only been involved in two goals in his previous 39 Premier League appearances for the Villans (2 goals).
● Philippe Coutinho scored in his first Premier League appearance for Aston Villa against Man Utd last time out, with only four players scoring in their first two games for the Villans in the competition: Dalian Atkinson (1992), Dion Dublin (1998), Ross Barkley (2020) and Danny Ings (2021).
BRENTFORD V WOLVES
3pm We have three fascinating games kicking off at 3pm from a betting point of view and we start with Brentford hosting Wolves. Brentford were once again desperately unlucky at home midweek against Manchester United. They created an xG of 2.87 in their 3-1 loss, an xG higher than Manchester United but that has been the story of their season at home thus far. They lost 2-0 to Chelsea here and finished the game with an xG of 2.16 and only conceded 0.31, while they finished the game with a higher xG to Leicester when they lost and outplayed Liverpool in a 3-3 draw. They have been fantastic at home to be honest, but they just haven’t got the results. Wolves will be hoping that continues as they arrive here in good form. They have put three wins together this year after their break because of Covid19 and they have been playing solid football in those three games. They still aren’t creating as much as I’d like, and they are grinding out results more so than doing anything flashy.
Wolves will likely employ the same tactics here. They will sit back and grind out a result. I feel Brentford will create more than Wolves, however the big question is can Brentford stop giving away silly goals. That’s obviously a big worry, but I feel the odds are appealing enough to take a chance on Brentford here at 3.25. I know the Wolves lay is tempting at 2.66 to have the draw on your side, but Brentford have been creating so many chances at home they are due an impressive win. You can’t keep creating xG figures of over 2 and not win games at home all season! I’d have Brentford a little shorter here given their performance level, and the 3.25 is worth a small investment.
The Striker Says:
One point win Brentford to beat Wolves at 3.25 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBrewol
MATCH STATS
● Brentford are looking to secure the league double over Wolves for the first time since 2015-16, though this is just the third different campaign in which they’ve met since then.
● Wolves have failed to score in three of their last four away league games against Brentford (W1 D1 L2), having found the net in each of their previous eight such visits before this.
● Wolves have lost just one of their last nine Premier League away games against promoted sides (W5 D3). Brentford could become just the second promoted side to complete the Premier League double over Wolves, after Birmingham City in 2009-10.
● Wolves have lost three of their last four Premier League games in London (W1), as many as they had in their previous 18 top-flight visits to the capital (W7 D8).
● Brentford have won just one of their nine Premier League games on a Saturday this season (D4 L4), while they’re winless in their four such games at the Brentford Community Stadium so far (D1 L3).
● Having lost four of their first five Premier League games this season (W1), Wolves have lost just three of their last 15 (W8 D4). Only Manchester City (13) have conceded fewer goals than Wolves this term (15), while Bruno Lage’s side are the only team not to concede as many as three goals in a match so far.
● Wolves have only conceded one goal in open play in their last nine Premier League matches, a Divock Origi winner for Liverpool in December. The other two goals they’ve conceded in that time have been a Raheem Sterling penalty for Man City and James Ward-Prowse free-kick for Southampton.
● Wolves haven’t conceded a first-half goal in any of their last 13 Premier League matches, facing 64 shots and 20 on target without conceding. The last side to go 14 consecutive top-flight matches without letting in a first half goal was Arsenal between January and May 2015 (15 in a row).
● Adama Traoré scored his first Premier League goal of the season in the 90th minute of Wolves’ 3-1 win over Southampton in their last match; the Spaniard has scored the most goals in Premier League history without ever scoring in the first half (8 goals), and only Chris Eagles (4/7, 57%) has scored a higher percentage of his goals (5+) in the 90th minute than Traoré (4/8, 50%).
● Wolves goalkeeper José Sá has only conceded 15 goals in his first 20 Premier League starts, the fewest in a goalkeeper’s first 20 starts in the competition since Alisson in December 2018 (8 conceded); Sá has saved 24 of the last 25 shots on target he has faced in open play in Premier League matches.
LEEDS V NEWCASTLE
3pm A few weeks ago this would have been a massive game in the relegation battle, but two recent wins as saw Leeds move away from the bottom and it’s become a bottom four consisting of Watford, Norwich, Newcastle and Burnley. That 3-1 win over Burnley was obviously massive for Leeds – at the time a loss would have put them in big trouble but they managed to follow that up with a 3-2 win away to West Ham which was an excellent bonus. They conceded a higher xG than they created in that game, but they won’t be complaining! Newcastle fans will have a massive interesting in Watford v Norwich for Friday Night Football but they need to just focus on getting points themselves. The point against Manchester United recently was obviously a nice bonus, but the 1-1 draw with home advantage against Watford would have been bitterly disappointing for them. They are trying to do transfer business at the moment, and the players coming in need to believe that they have a good chance of staying in the Premier League.
I have to say it’s a fascinating situation isn’t it? We haven’t really had a major takeover with lots of cash with a team in the relegation zone – usually it’s towards the top of the table. The Newcastle owners are at the same level as Manchester City and PSG, but the clubs are worlds apart! Leeds have shown some promising signs going forward in recent weeks. They created an xG of 2.10 v West Ham, 2.01 v Burnley, 1.62 v Arsenal and 1.92 v Chelsea. Their issues haven’t been fixed however, they are still shipping goals for fun at the other end and they are still giving away too many chances. It is positive though that they are improving going forward – the issues at the back aren’t new, and they had success last season by simply outscoring teams. I feel that’s what will happen here as Newcastle give away a host of chances too. This will be an open game, and Leeds will create more in my opinion. The 2.06 on the home win is tempting, but over 2.5 goals is too big to ignore at 1.73. This game screams goals and mistakes at the back from both sides.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeenwc
MATCH STATS
● Leeds have earned seven points from their last three Premier League games against Newcastle (W2 D1), two more than they had in their previous nine against them in the competition (W1 D2 L6).
● Newcastle lost this exact fixture 2-1 against Leeds last season but haven’t lost consecutive league games at Elland Road since a run of three between 1970 and 1972.
● After winning just three of their first 18 Premier League matches this season (D7 L8), Leeds have won each of their last two and are looking to record three in a row for the first time since winning their final four games of the 2020-21 season.
● Following wins over Burnley and West Ham in their first two league games in 2022, Leeds United are looking to win their first three league matches in a year for the first time since 1973 under Don Revie.
● Newcastle United have won just one of their 20 Premier League matches this season (D9 L10); only one of the last 12 sides to have one won one of their opening 20 top-flight games in a season has survived relegation, with West Brom staying up in 2004-05.
● Leeds have scored three goals in each of their last two Premier League matches, 3-1 and 3-2 wins over Burnley and West Ham respectively. The Whites last scored 3+ goals in three consecutive Premier League games in December 2001, while they last won three in a row while scoring at least three back in November 1997.
● Newcastle have scored first in 10 Premier League games this season and only gone on to win one of those (D6 L3) – that win ratio of 10% is the lowest by any side in Premier League history in a single season when scoring first.
● Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has lost six of his seven league games against Leeds (W1), including all four at Elland Road. This is his first meeting with the Whites since January 2015, a 1-0 away loss with Bournemouth in the Championship.
● Raphinha has scored in his last two Premier League appearances against Newcastle for Leeds; the last Whites player to score in three consecutive league appearances against the Magpies was Albert Johanneson in October 1967.
● Jack Harrison has scored four goals in his last two Premier League games for Leeds, one more than he managed in his previously 32 games combined (3). In all competitions, the Whites have won 19 of the 21 matches Harrison has scored (90.5%), the joint-highest win percentage of any player to have scored in more than 20 games for the club, along with Tony Yeboah (also 19 wins in 21 games).
MANCHESTER UNITED V WEST HAM
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Manchester United hosting West Ham, but this is a cracking fixture and deserves a big TV slot this weekend. It’s a better fixture than the 12-30pm and 5-30pm games in my opinion. Manchester United recorded a much needed 3-1 win over Brentford midweek, but the score line doesn’t tell the full story as they conceded an xG of 2.87 and created less. That was their worst performance at the back since Rangnick arrived, and while the win might take the headlines you can clearly see that they still have major issues. I don’t see Rangnick as being the problem, and they clearly have major issues with the squad and their work ethic. It will be interesting to see what happens in the summer. Obviously the Ronaldo incident took the headlines but I don’t see Ronaldo as being the problem – I feel he more than likely outworks the rest of the squad in training and he just always wants to play 90 minutes. West Ham have been fantastic this season, and you get the feeling this is a huge game for them.
They will be feeling the pressure after Spurs beat Leicester 3-2 in a remarkable comeback during the week. That leaves Spurs one point behind West Ham with three games in hand. I said it at the time, but West Ham really couldn’t afford to lose that game against Leeds if they wanted to have a shot at the Top Four. Spurs will go past them soon, one of their games in hand is against Burnley for example. The Hammers need something here to let the squad believe they can fight for that Top Four and complete with the big sides. This is an ideal time to get a result too – United are there for the taking when you look at the underlining figures. Obviously it’s going to be difficult for West Ham here as it always is at Old Trafford, but the value is with the United lay at 2.0. I fully expect play on pitch to make those odds look very short – United just aren’t playing good football at the moment.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat West Ham at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMunwhu
MATCH STATS
● Manchester United have won 20 of their 25 Premier League home games against West Ham (D3 L2) and are unbeaten in their last 13 against them at Old Trafford since a 1-0 loss in May 2007.
● West Ham have already won away against Man Utd this season, beating them 1-0 in the League Cup. Only three teams have ever won twice away against the Red Devils in the same season – Aston Villa (1919-20), Tottenham Hotspur (1989-90) and Chelsea (2004-05).
● Since the start of last season, Manchester United have lost three of their eight Premier League home games against London sides (W3 D2), though the Red Devils have won both such games this term. Teams from the capital had won just three of their 38 league visits to Old Trafford between 2013-14 and 2019-20.
● This is just the fifth time in Premier League history West Ham are facing Manchester United while above them in the table, with the Hammers failing to win any of the previous such games; 1-2 in August 1995, 0-0 in August 1998, 1-2 in September 2014 and 1-3 in December 2020.
● Having lost their first home Premier League match of 2022 against Wolves, Manchester United are looking to avoid losing their first two home league games in a year for the first time since 1985, when they lost to Sheffield Wednesday and Coventry City under Ron Atkinson.
● Last season, West Ham had the second-best home record in the Premier League (34 points), accounting for 52% of their total points last term. This season, the Hammers have the fourth best away record in the competition, with their 20 points on the road accounting for 54% of their overall points so far this term.
● Manchester United have lost their last two Premier League games kicking off at 3pm on Saturday, going down 4-2 against Leicester and 4-1 against Watford this season. The Red Devils have never lost three consecutive matches in this kick-off slot in the competition before.
● Former Manchester United manager David Moyes has never won an away Premier League match against the Red Devils in 14 attempts (D4 L10), with only Harry Redknapp managing more games at Old Trafford without winning in the Premier League era (15 games).
● Cristiano Ronaldo has been involved in seven goals in his last five Premier League appearances against West Ham (6 goals, 1 assist), with these involvements accounting for 70% of the total goals Manchester United have scored in these games (7/10).
● West Ham forward Jarrod Bowen has been directly involved in 13 goals in his last 18 Premier League matches (6 goals, 7 assists) and has netted in each of his last two. However, Bowen has only scored three goals in 43 away top-flight appearances, converting 4% of his shots (3/69), compared to 12 goals in 37 home games, converting 18% of his efforts in those games (12/68).
SOUTHAMPTON V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm We finish the evening with Southampton hosting Manchester City. It was nice to land a Max Bet on Manchester City last weekend when they beat Chelsea 1-0, it was a pretty close game but City control the game only conceding an xG of 0.43. We’re almost at the stage now when you run out of things to say about how good City are. They have been fantastic this season, and they are now 11 points clear at the top of the Premier League. City are top of the table on basically every metric except for offense where Liverpool are one point ahead. City are top of the defense table which is what wins the league really isn’t it – it’s all well and good scoring loads but you just have to be solid at the back in the big games. We saw that last weekend against Chelsea. The market is expecting another smooth win here with the Champions trading 1.29 at the time of writing. It’s very hard to see past a City win to be honest – Southampton had put together a decent run prior to losing to Wolves but there’s a huge gulf in class here between the sides.
I feel it’s a question of how many goals will City score rather than will they win. Southampton have actually being playing an open game lately, and that could spell big trouble against an in-form City side. They picked up a 1-1 draw here recently against Spurs but that score line doesn’t tell the full story as they conceded an xG of 2.90. They were exceptionally lucky to draw that game, and it’s hard to see them not conceding an xG like that here. Obviously it’s tempting to go with the handicap here, but I am going to go for a nice price instead. Any Other Away Win, which is City to score four or more and win, is trading 3.9 in the Correct Score market and I feel that’s worth a small investment to finish the day. If Southampton play their usual open game here, I can see City running riot.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Away Win Correct Score at 3.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSoumci
MATCH STATS
● Southampton drew 0-0 in the reverse fixture against Man City earlier this season but haven’t avoided defeat in both league meetings with the Citizens since the 2002-03 campaign (W2).
● Manchester City have won eight of their last 10 Premier League games against Southampton (D1 L1). However, the Citizens have failed to score in two of their last four against Saints in the competition, having found the net in each of their previous 16 against them.
● Southampton have won their last two Premier League home games against sides starting the day top of the table, beating Everton and Liverpool last season. The last side to win more consecutive home league games against the league leaders were Tottenham, who did four in a row between January 2015 and January 2017.
● Southampton are unbeaten in their last seven home Premier League games (W3 D4), their best unbeaten run at St Mary’s since a run of nine between March and October 2016.
● Manchester City have won their last 12 Premier League games in a row by an aggregate score of 34-7; since losing 2-0 to Crystal Palace in October, they have won 36 points, 13 more than any other Premier League side.
● After keeping five clean sheets in eight Premier League games between September and November, Southampton have conceded in each of their last 10 matches in the competition, shipping 21 goals in the process.
● Manchester City have opened the scoring in more different Premier League games than any other side this season, going on to win all 17 games in which they scored first.
● As well as having the tightest defence in the Premier League this season with just 13 goals conceded, Manchester City have also shipped the lowest ratio of their goals before half-time this term – just two of their 13 goals conceded have come before half-time (15%).
● Southampton striker Armando Broja has scored in his first four home Premier League starts, netting one goal each time. In Premier League history, the only player to score in his first five home starts is Gary Penrice for Queens Park Rangers between September and December 1992.
● Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in 11 goals in his last 14 Premier League starts (9 goals, 2 assists), scoring the winner against Chelsea in their last game. De Bruyne has assisted in all three of his league starts at St Mary’s (4 in total), with only Harry Kane assisting more goals at St Mary’s as an away player (5).
