PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s games all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. The action starts at 12.30pm with Leeds v Spurs.
LEEDS V TOTTENHAM
12.30pm We have another fantastic Saturday in the Premier League, and all football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We start the day with two clubs who are in a bit of trouble at the moment. It’s fair to say that not many would have expected Leeds to get something at Anfield during the week, but the manner in which they conceded six goals and Burnley beating Spurs leaves them under intense pressure towards the bottom of the table. There’s no question now they have been dragged into the relegation battle, and perhaps the only good news for them is that with Watford losing midweek there’s only one spot left to fill in the bottom three as Watford and Norwich look adrift now. Although Leeds start the weekend ahead of Everton, Newcastle and Burnley all three have games in hand on Leeds, and don’t forget about Brentford too who are ahead of Leeds but they have played the most games of anyone from 12th down. So, there’s definitely panic in the Leeds camp but there also appears to be panic in the Spurs camp!
We all knew what a tough job Conte had when he came to Spurs, but the early signs were very positive. He got them playing good football, seemingly sorted the issues at the back and had them creating good chances. A couple of weeks ago they were in pole position for that fourth spot but since then everything has gone wrong. Losses against Southampton, Wolves and Burnley have thrown away their position of strength in the Top Four race. Conte came out after the Burnley loss midweek and basically said he can’t fix how bad Spurs are which is a very odd thing to say to be honest. In true Spurs fashion, sandwiched in between those losses is a 3-2 win away to Man City! You couldn’t write that! Although Spurs are rightfully favourites in the match odds market, this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.68 and given both playing such an attacking game but at the same time are so poor at the back, we could see plenty of goals here. Spurs were very poor away from home to Burnley midweek, and I couldn’t put anyone off a lay at odds on but it’s over 2.5 goals for me to start the weekend.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeetot
MATCH STATS
● Leeds have won just one of their last eight Premier League games against Tottenham (D1 L6), though it did come in this exact fixture last season (3-1).
● Spurs have won just two of their 13 Premier League away games against Leeds (D3 L8), with those victories coming in May 1996 (3-1) and January 2004 (1-0).
● Spurs won just 21% of their first 19 Premier League matches against Leeds United (4/19) but have won 75% of their last eight against the Whites (6/8).
● West Ham United (2-1 in September) and Arsenal (4-1 in December) have both won at Elland Road this season in the Premier League. The last time three sides from London all won away at Leeds in a season in the league was in 1995-96 (QPR, Arsenal and Spurs all winning).
● Leeds United have lost three of their last four Premier League home games, as many as they had in their previous 17 at Elland Road. They’ve not lost three consecutive top-flight home games since November 2003.
● Leeds United have lost their last four Premier League matches on Saturdays and have won just one of their 11 games on this day this season (D3 L7), a 1-0 home win over Watford in October.
● Tottenham have lost eight of their last 12 Premier League matches that have kicked off at 12:30pm (W3 D1), with one of those defeats a 3-1 away defeat at Leeds last May.
● Of all managers to have taken charge of at least 10 such games, Tottenham boss Antonio Conte has the best Premier League win rate in games played on Saturdays (76% – W28 D3 L6). Meanwhile, all six of the Italian’s defeats on this day have come in London, all while he was Chelsea boss (home against Crystal Palace, Burnley and Man City, and away to Arsenal, Crystal Palace and West Ham).
● Raphinha has scored 40% of Leeds’ Premier League home goals this season (6/15). Indeed, the Brazilian and Rodrigo (2) are the only Leeds players to score more than one league goal at Elland Road so far this term.
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored 10 goals in his eight Premier League games played in Yorkshire – only Alan Shearer (16) has scored more as a visiting player in the county than the England captain.
BRENTFORD V NEWCASTLE
3pm We have a busy afternoon with four games kicking off at 3pm, and we start with the most important fixture today as Brentford host Newcastle. I know there’s a lot of narratives around the Leeds v Spurs game, this game is absolutely huge in the relegation battle. On the face of it, Brentford might seem relatively safe starting the weekend sitting in 14th, but when you look at how many games they have played compared to the rest you can see that they might be in danger. That being said, you have to remember that games in hand don’t equal points – just ask Spurs that! A loss here would see Newcastle one point ahead of Brentford though with two games in hand, Everton and Burnley start the weekend with three games in hand over Brentford and then Leeds also have a game in hand over them. Basically what that all means to me is this fixture is vital. If Brentford win, they definitely ease that pressure and depending on the Leeds v Spurs result earlier in the day, all the pressure turns to Leeds. While Newcastle are still involved in the relegation battle, they have become the most likely side in the bottom seven to stay up given all their signings in the January transfer window and how they have been playing since. Things seem to be working at the moment and they have good momentum.
Newcastle have put five games together unbeaten, and although they had a reasonably easy fixture list they played pretty well away to Leeds last weekend. They gave away very little at the back and a 1-1 draw was a very fair result. What is going to be a huge factor here is Brentford having home advantage – they have been fantastic at home this season and they have created some excellent xG figures. The only problem is they haven’t been taking their chances and they have had some very unlucky results. As a result, you have to go back to the 2nd of January to find their last win, and they’ve only had that one win in their last ten Premier League games. Of course, they can say they were unlucky – for example they created a bigger xG figure here against Crystal Palace, Wolves and Manchester United while failing to win. They also finished with a bigger xG against Norwich, Leicester, Chelsea, Liverpool and Brighton here without winning! Morale must be getting low at Brentford though given their poor run, and I feel this fixture lands at a good time for Newcastle – Brentford look a little short for me at 2.56 and that makes the draw good value for me at 3.35.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.35 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBrenew
MATCH STATS
● This is the first time Brentford have hosted Newcastle in a top-flight match, with all four previous such games coming in the second tier. The Bees won the first two (1935 and 1948), while Newcastle have won the most recent meetings (1992 and 2017).
● Newcastle are unbeaten in their last five league meetings with Brentford (W4 D1), netting 15 goals across these five games in a run stretching back to October 1992.
● This will be Newcastle’s 150th Premier League game in London – the Magpies have lost more away games in the capital than any other side in the competition (82).
● Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six Premier League games against promoted sides. However, five of those games have finished level (W1), including all four of their meetings so far this season.
● Brentford are winless in their last seven Premier League games, drawing one and losing six. No side is on a longer current run without a victory in the competition than the Bees.
● Newcastle are unbeaten in six Premier League games, winning three and drawing three. The Magpies last had a longer unbeaten run in the competition between May and November 2011 (14 games).
● Including penalties, both Brentford (44% – 12/27) and Newcastle (42% – 11/26) have scored over 40% of their Premier League goals from set piece situations this season.
● Brentford striker Ivan Toney scored against Newcastle in the 3-3 draw at St James’ Park earlier this season; the last players to score home and away against the Magpies in a Premier League season, having previously played for them in the competition, were Abdoulaye Diagne-Faye and Craig Bellamy in 2008-09.
● Newcastle striker Chris Wood has netted nine goals in his last 13 Premier League appearances against promoted sides, including a strike against Brentford for Burnley earlier this season. However, the New Zealander is yet to get off the mark for the Magpies (5 games).
● Allan Saint-Maximin has the most combined goals and assists (8 – 5 goals, 3 assists) for Newcastle in the Premier League this season. The Frenchman has also had the most shots (47) and created the most chances (37) for the Magpies this term.
BRIGHTON V ASTON VILLA
3pm We have another very interesting fixture here as Brighton host Aston Villa. Given the importance of Brentford v Newcastle and the fact that Burnley and Manchester United are in action in the other 3pm games there’s a good chance this one gets a little “lost” in amongst the action. You couldn’t really blame football punters for that, this is basically a fixture between too midtable sides who can’t achieve anything this season. Brighton fans will be delighted with their season however as they have been much improved on last season – although their manager publicly criticised the fans after booing a draw earlier in the season! Villa have played average football for a large part of the season, but they did ride a wave of good momentum and confidence when Steven Gerrard took charge. That has burnt off now with only one win from their last seven Premier League games, and the losses to Watford and Newcastle were obviously very disappointing – they did even play well, they created an xG of just 0.54 at Newcastle and then 1.19 at home to Watford while conceding 1.88. If they put in a similar type of performance here it’s hard to see them getting a result.
Although Aston Villa arrive into this fixture in poor form, you could hardly be confident about Brighton. They lost 3-0 to Burnley here last weekend, and although the xG figure they conceded wasn’t high, losing 3-0 to Burnley is a big red flag. While they had an excellent start to the season, they haven’t really kicked on from that. They tend to play better against the better sides in my opinion, and sometimes they get dragged down a level when playing the average sides. They’ll be hoping the same doesn’t happen here, but one thing I will say about Brighton is they have been excellent scoring late goals to get a result this season. Most of them have been for draws, but they are definitely a side to finish strong. They have scored most of their goals in the final 15 minutes this season – a total of 15. This is a game for small stakes in my view because I don’t have much confidence in either side, Brighton are a little short but I don’t want to lay them – I feel the best option here is a small bet on the draw in what should be a close game.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.35 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBriast
MATCH STATS
● Brighton are winless in their last five home league games against Aston Villa. However, the last four of these meetings has ended level, including both such games in the Premier League.
● Following a 2-0 win in November in Steven Gerrard’s first game in charge, Aston Villa are looking to complete the league double over Brighton for the first time since 1981-82.
● Aston Villa limited Brighton to just six shots in this season’s reverse fixture in November (a 2-0 win). Only against Brentford in September (4) have the Seagulls had fewer attempts in a Premier League game this season.
● Brighton have lost their last two Premier League games by an aggregate score of 5-0, having lost just two of their previous 14 in the competition (W3 D9). The Seagulls last lost three in a row in March 2021, while they last lost three in a row without scoring in April 2019 (a run of four).
● Brighton have scored just 10 goals in their 12 Premier League home games this season, with four of the Seagulls’ six league defeats this term coming at the Amex Stadium.
● After winning four of their first six Premier League games under Steven Gerrard, Aston Villa have won just one of their subsequent seven (D2 L4) – a 1-0 away win against Everton.
● No side has scored fewer Premier League goals in the opening 15 minutes of games this season than either Aston Villa or Brighton (2 each). Meanwhile, Aston Villa have conceded the highest share of their goals in the competition this term in the same timeframe (22% – 8/37).
● Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has scored five goals in 10 Premier League appearances against Aston Villa – his most against a single opponent in the competition. Four of those have come in his most recent four league games against them.
● Neal Maupay’s has scored 26 goals in the Premier League for Brighton – one more strike will see him become the Seagulls’ highest goalscorer in the competition (currently level with Glenn Murray).
● Since their Premier League debuts for the club on 15th January, no Aston Villa player has had more shots in the competition than Philippe Coutinho (12), while no player has created more chances for the club than Lucas Digne (10). Coutinho also has the joint-most goal involvements for the Villans since he joined (2 goals, 2 assists).
CRYSTAL PALACE V BURNLEY
3pm Burnley have turned their season around in the last week, and you have to say that they have an excellent chance of picking up more points as they travel to take on Crystal Palace. Although Crystal Palace beat Watford 4-1 midweek and did Burnley a favour in doing so, they didn’t really boss the game. It was a good result, but I still feel that they are worth taking on at the moment. Their xG figures aren’t impressive, and they seem there for the taking. The big question here can Burnley perform well enough to get a result, and I believe the answer is yes. I know Burnley have been very average this season, but they must arrive into this fixture full of confidence – they’ve just had two wins to get them right back into the mix to stay up and they put in one of their best performances of the season against Spurs on Wednesday. Even allowing for the fact that Spurs played average football, Burnley controlled the game and they could have scored more. I feel Crystal Palace are way too short here at 2.0, and I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest.
It seems silly to say Palace have been struggling to score goals lately, but if you take away the Watford game this has been true. I don’t want to change my opinion on Palace based on one game against Watford too who have been really average this season – apart from their surprise win over Aston Villa recently they have been playing badly and losing plenty of games. Prior to the Watford game, Palace created xG figures of 0.85, 0.53 and 1.41. You can see that they aren’t playing good football at the moment and creating chances, while I feel that this fixture is probably the best time Burnley have had this season. They played superbly against Spurs, and I accept that fixture came at home but I can see Burnley getting a result here. The 2.0 on Palace is woefully short in my view, and I’m happy to have a max lay.
The Striker Says:
Five points lay (liability) Crystal Palace to beat Burnley at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCrybur
MATCH STATS
● After four straight Premier League victories against Burnley between January 2018 and November 2019, Crystal Palace are now winless in their last four against the Clarets in the competition (D1 L3).
● Burnley have won their last two Premier League away games against Crystal Palace – in their top-flight history, the only London side the Clarets have won three consecutive away games against is Tottenham Hotspur, doing so between 1953 and 1955.
● Burnley have won five of their last 10 Premier League games in London (D2 L3), having won just 10% of their first 30 visits to the capital in the competition (W3 D4 L23). The Clarets have kept six clean sheets in these 10 games, double the amount they had in their first 30.
● Having lost just one of their first 10 home league games under Patrick Vieira, Crystal Palace have now lost each of their last three at Selhurst Park. They last lost more consecutive home league games between December 2016-February 2017 (5).
● Crystal Palace have scored at least once in 11 of their last 12 Premier League home games, though the exception in this run was their last such game (0-1 vs Chelsea).
● Burnley picked up their first away league win of the season in their last game on the road, beating Crystal Palace’s rivals Brighton 3-0 at the Amex Stadium. The Clarets last won back-to-back away league games in May.
● Burnley netted as many goals in their last Premier League away game (3) as they had in their previous six on the road combined. Only once have the Clarets scored 3+ goals in consecutive away games in the competition, doing so in November 2009 (3-3 v Man City, 3-5 v West Ham).
● Only Norwich (101) have had fewer shots in Premier League away games this season than Burnley (104). However, the Clarets have registered at least 10 attempts in four of their last five away league games, having done so in just one of their first seven on the road this season.
● Odsonne Édouard has scored in each of his last three Premier League home games for Crystal Palace – no player has ever scored in four in a row at Selhurst Park for the Eagles in the competition.
● Burnley’s Aaron Lennon has scored in two of his last four Premier League away games, netting against Manchester United and Brighton. Before this, he hadn’t netted in 46 consecutive games on the road in the competition, while he’s never scored three away goals in a single Premier League campaign.
MANCHESTER UNITED V WATFORD
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Manchester United host Watford. United fans wouldn’t have enjoyed the last ten minutes between Arsenal and Wolves on Thursday night as they would have much preferred a Wolves win when you look at the table. That leaves United starting the weekend just one point ahead of Arsenal, but Arsenal have two games in hand. In those ten minutes, Arsenal became massive favourites for that fourth spot. From a United point of view, they must win games like this and keep winning. They still have to play Liverpool and Manchester City, two games they are very likely to lose so they can’t afford anyone slip ups against average sides. Up until now you’d say Ralf Rangnick has had a reasonably easy fixture list but that hasn’t stopped United dropping points. There is a lot wrong at the club at the moment, and I still feel that they need a summer clear out. We won’t learn much about United today as they should beat this average Watford side, but the problem with United these days is you never know what type of performance you’re going to get.
Watford gave themselves a fighting chance of staying up with a win over Aston Villa last weekend, however they lost 4-1 to Crystal Palace midweek and with Burnley beating Spurs that probably means they are going down. It’s highly unlikely they will stay up, but it’s not impossible yet. United were busying grinding out a 1-1 draw midweek in the Champions League against Atletico Madrid – a result they will be delighted about, and although there was plenty of drama in the win against Leeds when they lost their two goal lead in the space of a minute, they bounced back well to win. I wouldn’t put United in any BETDAQ Multiples given how unreliable they are, but there’s a good chance they hammered this Watford side. I feel a small bet on a big win for United is the best option here, Any Other Home Win is 5.3 and that’s big enough to take a chance on.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win at 5.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMunwat
MATCH STATS
● Manchester United have never lost a home league game against Watford (W11 D2) – no side have they faced more at home in their league history without suffering defeat (also 13 vs Hull).
● Watford are looking to complete their first ever league double over Manchester United; they’ve won two of their last three against the Red Devils in the league, having won just one of their previous 15 before this (L14).
● Claudio Ranieri was manager of Watford for their 4-1 win earlier this season over Man Utd, while Roy Hodgson will take charge of this game. Should the Hornets win, they will be the first team to complete a league double over Manchester United with a different manager in charge for each game since Bolton Wanderers in 1950-51 (Walter Rowley and Bill Ridding).
● Manchester United have lost just one of their last 21 Premier League home games kicking off at 3pm on Saturday (W16 D4), though that loss did come against Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace in August 2019 (1-2).
● Manchester United are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games (W4 D3), with no side currently on a longer run without defeat in the competition than the Red Devils. Manchester United have lost just one of their 14 league games since Ole Gunnar Solskjær left the club in November (W8 D5).
● Following their 1-0 win at Aston Villa, Watford are looking to win consecutive Premier League away games for the first time since a run of three in August/September 2017 under Marco Silva.
● Just 7% of Manchester United’s Premier League goals this season have come from set-piece situations (excluding penalties), the lowest ratio in the competition this term. However, they did net their first goal from a corner this season in their 4-2 win at Leeds last time out.
● Watford manager Roy Hodgson has won his last two Premier League away games against Manchester United, winning there with Crystal Palace in 2019-20 and 2020-21. Pep Guardiola is the only manager to win three consecutively away against Man Utd in the Premier League, while only three managers have ever won consecutive top-flight visits to Old Trafford with different clubs – Alf Ramsey (1963 with Ipswich, 1978 with Birmingham), Joe Mercer (1970 with Man City, 1972 with Coventry) and Brian Clough (1973 with Derby, 1977 with Nottingham Forest).
● Only against Everton (8) has Watford’s Josh King scored more Premier League goals than the five he has against Manchester United.
● Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes has been involved in seven goals in his last seven Premier League appearances (4 goals, 3 assists), though all but one of these goal involvements have come away from Old Trafford.
EVERTON V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm We finish a superb Saturday with the shortest price of the day as Manchester City travel to take on Everton. The market is very confident of a Manchester City win here as they are trading 1.3 at the time of writing, however they were more or less the same price to beat Spurs last weekend and we all know what happened there! That Spurs loss will hurt City because it would have been nice to have no pressure on in the Premier League heading into the latter stages of the Champions League, but after Liverpool beat Leeds 6-0 midweek there’s only three points between them at the top of the table and now Liverpool have a better goal difference too. The good news for City fans is that they should hammer this Everton side – Everton have been very poor this season, and changing managers doesn’t seem to have had any instant impact. The 3-0 win against Leeds was very important when you look at the table, but they were very poor against Southampton and you have to say that they have been dragged into the relegation battle now after Burnley beat Spurs midweek. Everton fans will definitely be keeping an eye on results earlier in the day! The only thing Everton have in their favour is they have a few games in hand on the likes of Brentford and Leeds, but that means little the way they are playing at the moment.
Although the City loss to Spurs last weekend was a big shock, it’s hard to see any shocks here. At least Spurs have Conte as manager and Harry Kane up front who put in a superb display – what have Everton got going for them? I feel this is a case of how many goals will City score rather than will they win. They always have a very busy schedule, but they had the whole week off this week so they should come into this fixture feeling fresh and in great form. Apart from Harry Kane magic, they were unlucky to lose to Spurs and prior to that game they had been banging in the goals for fun. When you look at what Everton have been conceding, I feel it’s worth backing Any Other Away Win here at 4.2 in the Correct Score market. City can run riot here, and pile the pressure on Everton in the relegation battle.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Any Other Away Win at 4.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQEvemci
MATCH STATS
● Everton have won just one of their last 17 Premier League games against Man City (4-0 in January 2017), losing each of the last eight in a row.
● Manchester City have won each of their last four away Premier League games against Everton, as many as they had in their first 20 visits to Goodison Park in the competition (W4 D5 L11).
● Everton have lost their last eight league games against Manchester City – only against Portsmouth (13 between 1947 and 1956) and Manchester United (9 between 1999 and 2004) have they ever lost more consecutively in their league history.
● Everton have lost 13 of their 23 Premier League games this season, as many defeats as they suffered in the whole of 2020-21. 12 of those defeats have come in their last 16 games in the competition (W2 D2).
● Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League away games (W10 D2) since a 1-0 loss at Tottenham on the opening weekend. The Citizens have shipped just eight goals on the road in the Premier League so far this term, with no side shipping fewer.
● No side has scored fewer first half goals in the Premier League than Everton this season (8), with just 29% of the Toffees’ goals this term coming before the interval (8/28). Manchester City have scored more first half goals (30) and second half goals (33) than Everton have in total this term (28).
● Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has won 24 of his last 25 Premier League games against English managers, since a 2-1 loss to Frank Lampard’s Chelsea in June 2020. The only exception in this run was a 3-2 loss against Graham Potter’s Brighton in May last season.
● After scoring in all three of Everton’s Premier League games in August, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has failed to find the net in any of his five appearances since returning from injury in January, despite playing the full 90 minutes in four of those five games.
● Since the start of November, Raheem Sterling has scored 12 goals in 18 appearances in all competitions for Manchester City – his previous 12 goals for the club came across a 58-game spell between October 2020 and October 2021.
● Manchester City’s Riyad Mahrez has been involved in 25 goals in 30 appearances in all competitions this season, scoring 18 and assisting seven. In his career in English football, only in 2015-16 (18 goals, 11 assists) and 2019-20 (13 goals, 13 assists) has he registered more goal involvements in a single campaign.
