PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games with extended match stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The action is underway at 12.30pm with TOTTENHAM v BRIGHTON.
TOTTENHAM V BRIGHTON
12.30pm All eyes might be on Wembley today for the FA Cup Semi-Final between Manchester City v Liverpool, but we also have a cracking afternoon ahead in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have four games to enjoy today and there’s plenty of talking points to get through. We start the day with Spurs hosting Brighton as they have become big favourites for that fourth spot since the International break. Prior to the International break it looked like Arsenal’s to lose, and indeed they have gone on to lose it! Two losses against Crystal Palace and Brighton has left the door wide open for Spurs and they have ran through it. They were very impressive last weekend winning 4-0 away to Aston Villa – that followed on from their 5-1 win over Newcastle and you have to say they are peaking in front of goal at the right time. Although Arsenal still have a game in hand on Spurs, goal difference is going to be a huge factor for Spurs as they have a ten goal advantage there so the three point gap is quite important. It’s going to be a fantastic finish to the season whatever happens – I’m sure Arsenal will join them at some stage, but Arsenal need Spurs to slip up somewhere.
In that sense, every game is a must win game for Spurs from here. After doing Spurs a massive favour last weekend, Brighton will be hoping to take it back here! That win against Arsenal broke a reasonably long run without a win for Brighton, but as I said before that game they weren’t playing too badly. They have still been creating chances and just results weren’t going their way. For example they finished the game against Norwich with an xG of 2.86 but couldn’t convert their chances and had to take a 0-0. I think this fixture comes at a good time for Spurs, they are riding a huge wave of confidence after the last two weeks, but I do feel that the price at 1.58 isn’t too appealing. It’s hard to argue that they should be shorter, and although I feel they will get the job done I wouldn’t be rushing to put them in a BETDAQ Multiple today. I feel the stand out value bet here is over 2.5 goals at 1.94. Both sides have been playing very open games recently and Spurs are on fire in front of goal too. I feel this will be a very end-to-end game and I’m very surprised to see overs trading this big. I think it’s a good ten ticks out and with such a big difference I’m happy to have a five point Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotBri
MATCH STATS
● Tottenham have won all four of their Premier League home games against Brighton – only against Bournemouth (5/5) do they have a better such 100% record in the competition.
● Brighton have won just one of their nine away league games against Spurs (D2 L6), losing each of the last five in a row since a 1-0 victory in October 1981.
● Tottenham won the reverse fixture against Brighton 2-0 and have also beaten the Seagulls in the FA Cup this term. The last English club Spurs won three games against in a single season were Aston Villa in 2013-14.
● Brighton won 2-1 at Arsenal last week – the only team in Premier League history to win away at both Arsenal and Spurs in consecutive Premier League matches are Hull City in October 2008.
● Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last seven Premier League games – only once have they had a longer such run, doing so in 11 consecutive games between September and December 2011.
● Each of Brighton’s last three Premier League victories have come away from home. Meanwhile, the Seagulls are unbeaten in all five of their league games in London this season (W2 D3) – they last remained unbeaten in the capital across a full league campaign in 2016-17, while they’ve never managed to do so when playing at least five such games.
● Tottenham are looking to win five consecutive Premier League games for the first time since December 2018. Having beaten Newcastle 5-1 and Aston Villa 4-0, Spurs could become just the fourth team to win three consecutive Premier League games by 4+ goals, after Aston Villa (April 2008), Chelsea (August 2010) and Manchester City (September 2017).
● Tottenham’s Harry Kane has seven Premier League assists in 2022, the most of any player and two more than he registered in 36 games in 2021 (5). He has also scored in his last three league games against Brighton and has five Premier League goals in total against the Seagulls, with only Jamie Vardy and Mohamed Salah (6 each) scoring more against Brighton since 2017-18.
● Since Dejan Kulusevski’s first Premier League start for Spurs in February, no player has more Premier League assists than the Swede (6, level with Harry Kane). Kulusevski could become the first player to assist seven goals in his first 10 Premier League starts, with his six currently the joint-most.
● Enock Mwepu has been involved in five goals in his last three Premier League starts for Brighton (1 goal, 4 assists), with the Seagulls winning all three games. Indeed, Brighton have won 50% of their Premier League games the Zambian has started this season (4/8), compared to just 17% when he hasn’t (4/23).
MANCHESTER UNITED V NORWICH
3pm Obviously with the FA Cup weekend, we have a shortened Premier League fixture list today. We have three games kicking off at 3pm, and they are three very interesting games too! We start with Manchester United hosting Norwich – the home side are trading the shortest price of the day and it would take a brave punter to back this United side at 1.25! Losing to Everton last weekend was a surprise, but not a total shock given how poor United have been recently. I don’t think this poor form comes from the manager too, it looks like the players have just given up on this season and their performance level reflects that. The new manager, which looks like Erik ten Hag at the moment if you believe the press, really has his hands full here. The only way out I can see for United is a complete clear out – they might miss out on Champions League football again next season but it’s for the greater good. How long did it take Liverpool to come back to the top after all? And how long did it take Klopp to find a squad that could deliver his tactics? That’s the way United have to be thinking, but the big problem is football is so fast these days. The fans won’t be happy with 6th again, and that piles the pressure on and then the media get involved, the whole situation can turn toxic very quickly. Whatever you feel about United, you have to admit it’s a very interesting season ahead.
As I said, I wouldn’t be touching this United price at 1.25. They should beat this average Norwich side, but you just can’t trust this United side at the moment. They could only manage an xG of 0.80 last weekend against Everton. Apart from some Ronaldo magic against Spurs, United have been bang average and they have had reasonably low xG figures too. They were unlucky not to score against Watford here in February but it will be interesting to see what tactics Norwich go with it here. Norwich are going down this season, so do they just play an open game here and enjoy it, or put XI men behind the ball? We could easily see an end-to-end game here so I’m not going to get involved in the goals market – it’s hard to know what to expect from this United side after all. I feel the best option here is Norwich on the handicap. They are trading 1.52 +2.5 goals which is a very appealing bet – United haven’t been creating enough to record a big win here. They might grind out a win, but I can’t see them hammering any club at the moment.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Norwich +2.5 goals to beat Manchester United at 1.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunNor
MATCH STATS
● Manchester United have won 12 of their last 15 Premier League games against Norwich (L3), winning each of their last four in a row against the Canaries.
● Norwich have won just one of their last 12 away games against Manchester United in all competitions (D1 L10), winning 2-1 in the Premier League in December 2015.
● Manchester United have lost two of their last four home Premier League games against sides starting the day bottom of the table (W2), after losing just one of their first 21 such games in the competition (W16 D4). Those two most recent defeats came against West Brom in April 2018 and Sheffield United in January 2021.
● Manchester United have lost two of their last four Premier League games (W1 D1), having lost just one of their previous 15 following Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s departure (W8 D6). The Red Devils last lost consecutive league games in November 2021.
● Norwich beat Burnley 2-0 at Carrow Road last time out, just their fifth Premier League victory of the season. However, their previous four victories came in two lots of consecutive wins, including one home win and one away win both times.
● Five of Manchester United’s eight league defeats this season have come on Saturdays. Only in 2018-19 have the Red Devils lost more Premier League games on a specific day of the week (6 Sunday games).
● Norwich manager Dean Smith won 1-0 at Old Trafford earlier this season with Aston Villa. This will be the eighth time a manager has taken charge of two different clubs away at Man Utd in the same top-flight campaign, with none of the previous seven managing to win both visits.
● Cristiano Ronaldo has been on the losing side in seven of his 25 Premier League appearances for Manchester United this season. Only twice has he lost more league games in a single top-flight campaign – in 2002-03 with Sporting CP (8) and 2003-04 with Man Utd (8).
● Norwich’s Mathias Normann has had 20 shots in the Premier League this season, with all of them coming from outside the box. It’s the most shots a player has had in the competition this term without having a single one from inside the box.
● Teemu Pukki scored his 20th Premier League goal for Norwich against Burnley, becoming only the third player to do so for the Canaries after Chris Sutton (33) and Grant Holt (23). It was Norwich’s 20th Premier League goal of the season, with Pukki accounting for 45% of those (9), the highest such ratio in the division.
SOUTHAMPTON V ARSENAL
3pm Southampton host Arsenal next and you have to say this is the most interesting game of the day from a betting point of view. We’re going to have some big opinions on the Arsenal price at 2.02 on either side of the book. I always feel that backing Arsenal away from home should come with a wealth warning – especially in games like this when they have to grind out a result against a rock solid side like Southampton. However, when they are trading odds against, and although it is only marginal today, they can become a tempting bet if conditions are right. As I said before this season, Arsenal will never be a Max Bet because you just can’t trust them but there are times to back them – it’s just about picking the right moments! Arsenal didn’t play badly last weekend against Brighton, but they took a lot of the headlines as they lost 2-1 and handed the advantage to Spurs in the Top Four race. They will know how Spurs got on in the early kick off before this game, and the door could be open again or they’ll be under even more pressure. As we all know too, Arsenal usually don’t do well under pressure, especially away from home.
Although Southampton are usually a tough side to beat, they are in poor form. They were hammered 6-0 here last weekend by Chelsea. They are without a win in their last five Premier League games, and although they have been unlucky at times it was disappointing to see them lose to Watford and Newcastle here. Both times they finished with the higher xG figure but it’s still disappointing. I feel what I said above about Arsenal stands here – you simply can’t trust them with a big stake, however this seems a good time to back them at 2.02. I will be limiting stakes because Arsenal away from home will always have that little wealth warning, but Southampton seem there for the taking at the moment and you also have to consider that Arsenal didn’t play badly last weekend, they were just unlucky with the result. They can collect three points here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Arsenal to beat Southampton at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouArs
MATCH STATS
● Southampton have lost their last two Premier League home games against Arsenal, as many as they had in their previous 10 against them at St Mary’s (W4 D4). Saints haven’t lost three consecutive home league games against the Gunners since a run of four between 1968 and 1971.
● Arsenal have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League games against Southampton (W7 D4), and are looking to complete their first league double over Saints since 2016-17.
● Since a goalless draw in February 2016, Southampton have scored first in seven of their 11 Premier League meetings with Arsenal. However, they’ve only gone on to win one of those seven (D3 L3), a 3-2 victory in December 2018.
● Southampton have conceded 10 goals in their last three home Premier League games (losing all three), as many as in their previous 13 at St Mary’s combined this season (W5 D7 L1). The Saints haven’t lost four in a row at home since November 2019.
● Arsenal have lost their last two Premier League games, last losing three in a row in their first three of the campaign in August. The Gunners lost 2-1 at home to Brighton last week, but haven’t lost a league game on consecutive Saturdays since November 2008.
● Three of the last seven occasions when a side has lost a Premier League match by six or more goals has been Southampton (0-9 vs Leicester, 0-9 vs Man Utd, 0-6 vs Chelsea), with all three coming under manager Ralph Hasenhüttl. It is only the third instance of a manager losing three games by 6+ goals with the same club, along with Danny Wilson at Barnsley and Roberto Martínez at Wigan Athletic.
● Only Chelsea and Manchester City (6 each) have conceded the first goal in fewer Premier League games this season than Arsenal (8). However, the Gunners have gone on to lose on seven of those eight occasions (88%), with only Norwich (90%) and Wolves (92%) having a higher loss rate when conceding first.
● Southampton have both scored and conceded in 19 different Premier League games this season, with only West Ham (20) doing so more often. However, only Wolves’ games (10) have seen both teams score less often than Arsenal (11) this term.
● Arsenal’s Alexandre Lacazette has been involved in seven goals in his last six Premier League appearances against Southampton (5 goals, 2 assists). Indeed, he’s been involved in more goals against Saints than he has any other side in the competition.
● Bukayo Saka leads the way for both shots (72) and chances created (56) for Arsenal in the Premier League this season. In fact, the 20-year-old is the only English player to have registered both 50+ shots and 50+ chances created in the competition this term.
WATFORD V BRENTFORD
3pm We finish Saturday in the Premier League early this Saturday! Watford hosting Brentford is our final game, and it’s also the most open market of the day. It wasn’t so long ago that Brentford were one of the sides that could have got dragged into a relegation battle when you looked at the games in hand situation, but they have responded to that so well. They have won four of their last five games to shoot themselves away from the bottom four and they have no relegation worries. I am pleased by that too as they have had a great approach to games in the Premier League. They came up from the Championship and tried to play football rather than just hang on and draw games hoping to stay up. They have played proper football. They are an appealing bet here too at 2.62 – it’s not a surprise that we have an open market with Watford having home advantage, but I feel this fixture lands at a perfect time for Brentford and we should take full advantage.
Watford are going down to the Championship and morale must be pretty low at the moment. Although it’s understandable to have an open market here because Watford are at home, I don’t feel that there’s a usual “home advantage” for Watford. They have been woeful in front of their own fans this season, and their home form is a major reason why they are sitting in the bottom three. They have only managed seven points from 15 games at home this season which has them nailed to the bottom of the home form table – Norwich are even five points ahead of them! Brentford arrive into this fixture in top form too, and this fixture seems to be an ideal time to back them. They were superb away to Chelsea in the 4-1 win, and then controlled the game last weekend to beat West Ham 2-0. If we see a performance even close to those two wins, they should easily beat this Watford side. Given the form of Brentford, and how poor Watford have been at home this season, I feel the 2.62 is worth a Max Bet on Brentford.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Brentford to beat Watford at 2.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WatBre
MATCH STATS
● Watford have lost their last two league games against Brentford, as many as they had in their previous 16 (W9 D5). They last lost more consecutively against the Bees between 1929 and 1931 (5).
● Brentford are looking to complete their first league double over Watford since 1976-77 in the fourth tier. However, they’re winless in their last seven league visits to Vicarage Road (D2 L5).
● Watford have lost their last nine home Premier League matches and could become only the third team to lose 10 consecutive top-flight home games in a row, after Birmingham City in February 1986 and Sunderland in August 2005. Birmingham are the only top-flight team to lose 10 in a row within the same season.
● After picking up just four points in an 11-game run between December and February (W1 D1 L9), Brentford have won four of their last five Premier League games (L1) and are looking to win three in a row in the top-flight for the first time since September 1946.
● Watford have suffered 12 home Premier League defeats this season, with every other top-flight team to lose 12 or more in a single season going on to be relegated (20 previous occasions). Only 32% of their points this season have come at home (7/22), the lowest percentage by a team in an English top-flight season in history.
● Brentford have conceded a league-high 11 goals from outside the box this season. However, Watford are the only side yet to score from distance in the Premier League this term, while only three teams have ever gone through a whole campaign without such a goal – Man City and Middlesbrough in 1995-96, and Watford themselves in 2019-20.
● Watford have kept fewer clean sheets than any other side in the Premier League this season (3), while at the other end of the pitch, only Norwich (17) have failed to score in more different games than the Hornets this term (16).
● Since Roy Hodgson’s first home Premier League match in charge of Watford, the Hornets are the only Premier League side without a single home point, losing all four games under Hodgson at Vicarage Road. The last manager to lose his first five home games in charge at a club was Chris Ramsey with QPR in 2015.
● Bryan Mbeumo has assisted in each of his last three Premier League appearances for Brentford (four in total), with those four assists all for different players (Wissa, Janelt, Eriksen and Toney). The only player in Premier League history who has assisted in four consecutive Premier League appearances for a promoted side is Chris Waddle in March/April 1997 for Sunderland.
● Brentford’s Ivan Toney has been involved in 10 goals in his last eight Premier League appearances (8 goals, 2 assists), with only Spurs duo Harry Kane (15) and Son Heung-Min (13) involved in more goals in 2022 so far.
