THE STRIKER Sat: Premier League Preview

PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games. It’s back with a bang and the North London Derby at 12.30pm as ARSENAL face TOTTENHAM at The Emirates. Each match previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.

ARSENAL V TOTTENHAM

12.30pm The Premier League is back on Saturday! Talk about coming back with a bang on BETDAQ Betting Exchange after the International break! Not only do we start with the North London Derby, but we have a bumper day of action with seven fixtures to enjoy. I can’t wait. We’ve had some huge North London Derbies over the last while after we went a couple of years without them meaning much. Last season we had a ding-dong battle between these two for the final Champions League spot and it was Spurs who sent a massive message to Arsenal with a 3-0 win in May. They did have home advantage that time though, and Arsenal ran out 3-1 winners when they sides met here last season. Although neither side are expected to lift the title this season, they are call themselves contenders for the time being. Arsenal sit top of the table on 18 points, and Spurs are just behind on 17 points – the same amount as Manchester City. Obviously a win here for either side would be massive, but from a mental point of view it would be a big blow for the loser. Especially if that was Arsenal after essentially being bullied by Manchester United at Old Trafford. Arsenal have been winning the games you’d expect them to, and another loss here would basically mean they’ve lost every time they’ve come up against top six opposition. Not a good look.

As you would expect, Arsenal come into the game as favourites given home advantage. I’m not sure I’d have them as short as 2.06 though – Spurs have been playing some nice football under Conte and look a lot more solid at the back. It is Spurs, and they aren’t without fault but with Kane and Son on fire they arrive into this game in top form. It was a shame for the International break to come when it did given they banged six goals past Leicester – but then again Leicester have been terrible this season. This Arsenal side definitely have more of a backbone than previous years, and there’s no doubt that we’ll have a ding-dong battle again here but I like the Arsenal lay at the odds. 2.06 is just too short in my opinion and I really don’t see much between the sides. Spurs have been creating enough to get a result here, and they have also looked more solid at the back for Conte. Another big test for Arsenal, let’s see how they get on – it’s fantastic to have the Premier League back!

The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Tottenham at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsTot

BOURNEMOUTH V BRENTFORD

3pm As I said above, we have a massive day of action this afternoon with seven games in the Premier League. Five of them kick off at 3pm and we start those fixtures with Bournemouth hosting Brentford. I have to say at the time I thought the sacking of Scott Parker was a shocking decision – however Bournemouth have collect five points in three games since, and you can’t knock those results. They have had to grind out draws against Wolves and Newcastle of course and the performances haven’t been pretty but they have worked hard. We know now too that the Scott Parker decision wasn’t really based just on losing heavily to Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool – it mainly for his comments after the Liverpool game about the squad. You basically can’t tell the media you feel the squad you have isn’t up to Premier League standard, even if you think it! The players wouldn’t have played for him anyway after that I suppose, and it’s probably best for all parties. It will be interesting to see can they grind out another result against this attacking Brentford side. Brentford would have been bitterly disappointed to lose at home to Arsenal prior to the International break – especially considering they usually create a lot at home. They will view this as a good chance to get back to winning ways now, and I feel they are worth backing at 2.24 too. If you’re a fan of xG figures like me, Brentford really stand out today.

So far this season Brentford have taken headlines for beating Manchester United 4-0, but they’ve also produced some shock results like losing 3-2 to Fulham straight after the United game! In their last four games however they have created xG figures of 2.57 v Everton, 2.14 v Crystal Palace, 2.85 v Leeds and then 0.51 v Arsenal. They’ll be disappointed with the Arsenal performance, but then this is a massive drop in class. I know Bournemouth have managed to grind out results recently, but each time they have conceded a higher xG figure than they created. It’s nice to get a run of results, but if you’re performance level doesn’t improve then the results will only turn one way. I’m not going to go mad with the stakes here because obviously Bournemouth do have a new found confidence, but this really should be three points for Brentford. I’d have them closer to 2.0.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Brentford to beat Bournemouth at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouBre

CRYSTAL PALACE V CHELSEA

3pm Chelsea return to Premier League action as they travel to take on Crystal Palace. It’s a shame this isn’t a TV game, the FA probably could have moved it to the 5-30pm game to be fair! It is Graham Potter’s first Premier League game in charge – it took his first game in charge in the Champions League before the International break and had to settle for a disappointing 1-1 draw with Red Bull Salzburg. That actually leaves Chelsea under immense pressure in that group considering they lost their first Champions League game to Dinamo Zagreb. Plenty of word to do! They have plenty of work to do in the Premier League as well as they start today eight points behind the league leaders, although they do have a game in hand. I was still shocked to see Tuchel sacked because there wasn’t even a hint that he was under pressure, but the best way of describing Chelsea this season is that they haven’t been firing. Their xG figures have been 2.08, 1.71, 0.72, 1.69, 1.60 and 1.31. Consistent, but not impressive. The fact that they conceded a higher xG than they created against Leicester was also very worrying but I still expected them to let Tuchel sort things out. Things more very quickly in football though!

They face a Crystal Palace side here who aren’t far away from the relegation battle at the moment. They are too good to go down of course, but they are sitting in 16th at the moment. Although they do have a game in hand on all the teams around them. Fair to say that they have been playing some pretty average football this season – they were outclassed by Arsenal and Manchester City, and could have easily lost to Liverpool, Brentford and Newcastle looking at the xG figures. They managed to grind out three draws but they conceded xG figures of 2.36, 2.14 and 4.17. That 4.17 to Newcastle is very worrying in my opinion, and Palace aren’t showing the signs that they are a decent team at the moment – they clearly have major issues at the back. It’s hard to be confident about Chelsea at the moment so I’ll be keeping stakes small, but you have to admit Crystal Palace are there for the taking at the moment. The 1.92 on Chelsea is worth backing – even with their own issues.

The Striker Says:
One point win Chelsea to beat Crystal Palace at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryChe

FULHAM V NEWCASTLE

3pm We have the most open market of the day next as Fulham host Newcastle. I’m not being too harsh saying this game could easily get lost this afternoon with all the other talking points today, but it is an interesting fixture. Fulham have adjusted to life in the Premier League better than most English football fans expected. They have picked up 11 points from seven games and started this weekend sitting in the top six. They have had a massive drift in the relegation market, and to be honest at the moment it looks like they won’t even be close to a relegation battle. They started the season with a confidence boosting draw against Liverpool and haven’t looked back picking up wins against Brentford, Brighton and Nottingham Forest. They will be a little worried about the amount of chances that they are conceding but they have scored enough to make up for it. From an xG point of view, they should be conceding more than they have and they shouldn’t be scoring as much so that is a worry – they have to return to their performance level at some point. From example, they have created an average xG of 1.4 but scored an average of 1.7. While they have conceded an average xG of 2.0 but only actually conceded an average of 1.6.

Fulham clearly have issues at the back, but for the time being they are playing with confidence. Newcastle are turning into draw specialists after getting five draws from their last six games. Of course they will be delighted with the 3-3 draw against Manchester City, but they can say they have been very unlucky too. They created an xG of 1.97 against Brighton in the 0-0 draw, then 2.1 away to Wolves in a 1-1 draw and 1.76 at home to Bournemouth before the International break. Those three weren’t even that unlucky compared to the xG of 4.17 against Crystal Palace in a 0-0 draw – how they didn’t score at some stage in that game I do not know! Newcastle have been really impressive going forward this season when you look under the hood, and given how open Fulham have been I feel this game screams goals. I was very surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as high as 1.95 when I clicked into the market and it’s a confident bet at very appealing odds.

The Striker Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulNew

LIVERPOOL V BRIGHTON

3pm Now we have the shortest price of the day in the Premier League as Liverpool host Brighton. The home side will be a popular bet for any Acca this afternoon, but I have to say the 1.36 just feels too short for me. It’s clear that Liverpool haven’t fired yet this season, and I wouldn’t be comfortable backing them at such short odds to beat a solid side like Brighton at the moment. The International break could have come at a good time for Liverpool given the amount of issues they have had this season. In that sense, you can never know what an International break can do – sometimes it breaks the run of form, and allows the manager time to fix things from a technical point of view. When you watch back the defending against Napoli in the Champions League, it’s clear to see that Liverpool have major issues at the back. Given the amount of chances Brighton usually create, they will surely cause Liverpool some issues here. Obviously it will be interesting to see how Brighton play now they start life without Graham Potter, but you don’t become a bad side overnight – they will still play their usual attacking style of play. This should actually be a very entertaining game.

Brighton have been playing some fantastic attacking football this season. They have created an average xG of 2.0 per game which is clearly impressive. Not only that, but they have just been conceding an average xG of 1.1. You can see why they are “dark horses” for the top six, however things will change now Graham Potter has moved on. With Liverpool giving away so many silly goals this season, I really feel that they shouldn’t be as short as 1.36 here. I know getting a result at Anfield is very tough, and it’s a huge ask for Brighton however betting is all about getting value and I 100% feel we’re getting value laying Liverpool. I just can’t see this being a one way traffic win, and I wouldn’t even be surprised to see Brighton win given the chances they are creating. They are worth supporting here, and I’m happy to lay Liverpool at the odds.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Brighton at 1.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivBri

SOUTHAMPTON V EVERTON

3pm We finish the 3pm games Saturday afternoon with Southampton hosting Everton. The big question heading into this game is – is this a relegation battle? I had a quick look at the relegation odds before looking at this fixture and these two are definitely in the mix. You have Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth odds on to go down, then you have Leicester who have been woeful this season and then these two. Obviously if there is a loser in this fixture they move under pressure, and the winner gets some breathing space. I wouldn’t say that these two have been playing bad football, it’s just things are so competitive towards the bottom of the table and they are both pretty average. It would only take a poor run to see either of them in trouble, even though on paper given the size of the clubs you’d say that they are “too good to go down.” Everton got a much needed win at home to West Ham before the International break – it wasn’t deserved because they actually created very little – but it was badly needed. I have to say it was very disappointing to see Southampton lose to Wolves and Aston Villa in their two games prior to the International break – they were two sides they could have easily beaten and although the Wolves game was pretty even, Aston Villa outplayed them which is a worry. Villa haven’t looked good either this season.

After starting the season well fancied to go down, it looked like Southampton were moving away from the relegation discussion after wins against Leicester and Chelsea, plus they didn’t deserved to lose against Manchester United, but those two losses have indeed brought them back into the mix. They will be much more comfortable at home however, and let’s not forget just how poor Everton were away from home last season. They only managed ten points all season which was the joint worst return with Norwich. I know Everton are very limited, but I also feel that Southampton look too short to back here at 2.28. It’s hard to make the case that they should be shorter to be honest, even allowing for the Everton issues. I can only see a very close game here between two pretty evenly matched sides – there won’t be many chances, and the draw is worth a small bet at 3.5.

The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouEve

WEST HAM V WOLVES

5.30pm We finish an intriguing day in the Premier League with West Ham v Wolves. As I said above, it might have been nice to have Chelsea on the TV slot given the change in manager, but you can’t say that this isn’t an interesting fixture too. Both sides have really struggled at the start of the season, and indeed at the moment you could call this a relegation battle. West Ham start the day sitting in the bottom three with Wolves just above them in 17th. I don’t think the alarm bells are ringing at either club, however it’s been a bitterly disappointing start to the season for West Ham considering they have been fighting for the European spots for two seasons now. At times they have even been involved in the Top Four race when Manchester United, Spurs and Arsenal were busy throwing points away last season! Despite being two points ahead of West Ham at the moment, Wolves are far more likely to go down given their performance level. As I said when looking at their stats recently, they are just conceding too many chances and they have lost that ability to grind out results. When you don’t create much or score many goals, you have to be solid at the back. If you lose that, then you’re in trouble and that’s where Wolves are at the moment.

Despite a poor start to the season from Wolves, there has been signs of improvement. I’m happy to overlook the Manchester City game because it’s hard to expect anything from Wolves there. However, against Bournemouth they were unlucky to draw as they created an xG of 1.88 and the game finished 0-0, and while they did concede a marginally higher xG figure against Southampton it was good to see them grind out a win. Almost like old times, and much better than their performances at home to Fulham and Newcastle. Obviously it is worrying Bournemouth are odds on to go down, and perhaps this game will give us a better idea where Wolves stand. West Ham might have been very unlucky to lose against Everton and Chelsea before the International break, but that’s the breaks at this level. They haven’t played badly, they have just been unlucky. The thing is though, I don’t feel the 2.04 is big enough to get involved on West Ham. I much prefer the draw at 3.5 from a value point of view – both sides haven’t fired and although West Ham deserve to be the favourites, I wouldn’t have them this short.