PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games. Each match previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats via FACTMAN.
BOURNEMOUTH V LEICESTER
3pm The fixture are coming thick and fast at us now! We have another action packed weekend of Premier League action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It was an entertaining week with the Champions League, and it’s actually a very busy run for the big clubs now as we have Champions League next week, followed by a full Premier League fixture list midweek the week after. It’s a shame we have no TV 12-30pm game this weekend, but we kick the day off at 3pm as Bournemouth host Leicester. You could say Leicester finally started their season on Monday night with a 4-0 win over Nottingham Forest. That win was desperately needed because they looked nailed to the bottom of the table and their performances looked so poor too. Although it’s clearly an impressive win because they took their chances in front of goal – the signs for Brendan Rodgers’ side are still worrying in my opinion. The final xG figures were very even – it finished 1.44 v 1.43 towards Leicester, and it really was just a case of them taking their chances. The jury is still out, and although it was nice to get three points I still feel they have a lot of work to do. Away from home, against a side very likely to be in the relegation battle, it will be very interesting to see how Leicester perform here.
Another win here for Leicester would be huge. At the moment, you’d have to say that they are in the relegation battle so to beat a rival away from home would obviously be massive. It would also be a confidence boost too, because one result doesn’t change much. I noted last week that I am mainly interested in how the players behave because to see them fighting between each other after conceding goals isn’t a good look for dressing room morale. Bournemouth seem to have found some dressing room morale themselves though after the sacking of Scott Parker. While it did raise some eyebrows, Bournemouth have now gone four games unbeaten – they recorded a big win against Nottingham Forest in the relegation battle and grinded out three draws against Wolves, Newcastle and Brentford. They are still conceding more than they are creating, but basically to stay in the Premier League this season they are going to have to grind out results. They haven’t got the ability to do anything flashy. The xG figures from the Nottingham Forest win would worry me from a Leicester point of view, and although I am keeping stakes small here I’m happy to lay Leicester at 2.16. They have looked poor all season, and one result doesn’t change much – let’s see if Bournemouth can grind out another result.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leicester to beat Bournemouth at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouLei
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CHELSEA V WOLVES
3pm An interesting market here! Chelsea host Wolves with the home side trading 1.41. On first look, that does feel very short because at the moment you’d have to say that Chelsea just aren’t firing. However, what makes this game tricky from a betting point of view is that Wolves have been bang average this season and it’s hard to make a case to support them. If you look at the relegation betting you’ll see that Wolves are definitely in the mix – my opinion is that they are too good to go down, but that’s not to say that they won’t be in the fight. They have turned into a poor side in recent times and lost that ability to grind out results like they used to. From a tactical point of view, they have basically lost their strength at the back which has caused massive issues. They were never that talented going forward, and when you start conceding goals you’re going to run into issues. The reason why they were many football fans “dark horses” to go down this season was the fact they conceded an average xG of 1.6 per Premier League game last season. Their actual was just over 1 which wasn’t bad, but it’s clear they are giving away a lot of chances. I know Chelsea aren’t firing at the moment, but it’s hard to see Wolves stopping them.
Although I feel Chelsea will get the job done here, I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.41. That’s probably one match odds market to avoid today, and I wouldn’t be putting them in any Betdaq Multiple this weekend. It is actually fascinating to see what Graham Potter can do with Chelsea because you’d have to question can he improve them after Thomas Tuchel? Based on their performances in his opening games, I don’t think he has changed much. They are under pressure in the Champions League, although granted they can still finish strongly there but they equally had to work hard to grind out a win against Crystal Palace last weekend. I don’t think this game will be pretty, and Chelsea will have to grind out a win. I’m happy to keep stakes small on this game, but Under 2.5 goals stands out at 1.99. Wolves haven’t been scoring this season, and with Chelsea struggling to create chances I feel we’ll have a pretty boring clash here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.99 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheWol
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MANCHESTER CITY V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm We have the shortest price of the day next, indeed the whole Premier League weekend, as Manchester City host Southampton. At the time of writing, Manchester City are trading as short as 1.16 and to be honest it’s hard to see anything bar a comfortable home win here. It’s hard to make the case to be against City at the moment – and you just keep coming back to the same question – how can you stop them? Indeed, how can sides stop Erling Haaland? He really has proven to be the missing link for this City side; they always created a host of chances but now they have a natural born goal scorer to take advantage of them. I don’t think there is even a debate anymore on who is going to get the Golden Boot come the end of the season – the only thing stopping it is injury to be honest. Unfortunately for Southampton, when you’ve just lost a massive game last weekend in the relegation fight at home to Everton – away to Manchester City is probably the last fixture you want at the moment! It’s a case of how many goals can City score rather than will they win for me here.
At the moment, looking at the odds for relegation you have two clear favourites – Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth – but then you have Southampton and while it’s quite open after the top two, it’s clear Southampton are definitely going to be involved in the relegation battle this season. They have just conceded too many chances – their average xG conceded this season is 1.6 and against a side like City you really don’t want those figures. City have been banging in the goals for fun lately too – they were 4-0 up by half-time in the Manchester Derby last weekend, and Southampton’s best hope here is City just take this game for granted. I doubt that will happen though given they are sitting behind Arsenal, and they do have an easy Group in the Champions League too. I can’t see past the City win here, and while they can be included in any Betdaq Multiple this weekend, I fancy them to cover the 2.5 goal Handicap – that’s currently trading 2.04 and looks a cracking play.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -2.5 goals to beat Southampton at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciSou
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NEWCASTLE V BRENTFORD
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Newcastle hosting Brentford. We have a very interesting market here with Newcastle odds on. I’m sure we’ll have a lot of big opinions either side of the book on Newcastle at around 1.85. I saw a very interesting graphic on Twitter this week – it was basically a breakdown of each shot both for and against from an xG point of view – and the two sides that faired best were Brentford and Brighton. Ironically the two sides who are owned by once professional gamblers! Brentford clearly know how to pay good football, but they haven’t been getting results lately and come into this game with one win from their last six. Newcastle have the same stats though, finally getting a much needed win against Fulham last weekend. They deserved that because they had been playing some great football without results. Newcastle have actually been very impressive this season, they have only recorded an xG of under 1 twice this season, and one of those was away to Liverpool. A flick through their performances will see figures like 3.62, 4.17, 2.10, 2.30 and 1.98. The 4.17 here against Crystal Palace was one of, if not the most, unlucky results of the season in the Premier League – to not score from all those chances was criminal!
When you look at the underlining numbers, it’s clear to see Newcastle are a very good side this season. It’s easy to understand why they are starting odds on to win fixtures like this, and they will start winning more games too. Basically you don’t create an xG of 4.17 many times and don’t win games – it’s as simple as that. Old school football fans might not like xG but you can’t knock it for fully understanding how teams are playing. Brentford have been playing good football this season too however, and they have been unlucky as well. They had to settle for two draws against Crystal Palace and Everton but finished those games with xG figures of 2.14 and 2.57. I feel Newcastle are rightfully favourites, but I can’t back them as short as 1.85 to beat this Brentford side – we have two excellent attacking sides here and we should have a very entertaining game. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.83 which is very close to the Newcastle price but looks fantastic value.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewBre
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BRIGHTON V TOTTENHAM
5.30pm We finish the day with the most open market of the day as Brighton host Spurs. The sides aren’t far away from each other in the market – indeed, we aren’t far away from the magical 3.0 on all three outcomes, but Spurs come into the game as slight favourites. Spurs have clearly had their issues away from home recently – things appeared to be going well until the performance away to West Ham but since then they lost away to Sporting Lisbon and then obviously lost in the North London Derby last weekend. They were two massive setbacks, although their group in the Champions League is very open so all is not lost there. I have to say the loss to Arsenal at the weekend had to knock their confidence. As I said going into that game, there were so many questions about both sides and who would really “challenge” for what this season, and it’s a big setback for Spurs. I still don’t see Arsenal winning the title, but it’s likely Spurs will have to battle for that fourth spot with Chelsea. I know Liverpool have started the season poorly, but surely they will turn things around soon and head up the table. Although they are a cracking side, not many football fans would have thought Brighton would get a result away to Liverpool last weekend.
Brighton might have even been disappointed with the 3-3 draw having gone 2-0 up early. As I said prior to that game, Liverpool looked very short and it’s always nice to land a lay like that. Brighton should be more comfortable at home here today; although I have to say I was very impressed with Kane and Son in the first half against Eintracht Frankfurt midweek regardless of the result. In the match odds market, I would definitely lean towards laying Spurs at around 2.7 – I would just have them a little bigger in the market and Brighton a little shorter. It’s only marginal though, and the bet that stands out here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.96. Both sides have had a huge amount of goals in their games this season, and I would expect another very end-to-end game here. Brighton have actually been one of the most entertaining sides in the Premier League this season, and I can’t see Spurs making this game dull either. I’d be very surprised if we didn’t get goals here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriTot
⚠️ CHECK FACTMAN STATS ON SATURDAY’S PREMIER LEAGUE
