PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s busy Premier League fixture list which gets underway at 12.230pm with LEICESTER hosting MAN CITY. All matches previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats via FACTMAN.
LEICESTER V MANCHESTER CITY
12.30pm We have a blockbuster day on Saturday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! It feels like a race against time to get fixtures in before the World Cup, and we have a lot of action to get through before we break for the World Cup on the 13th of November. Not only do we have a busy run of things, and we had Champions League and Europa League this week, we also have to squeeze in a round of EFL Cup fixtures too. We have a massive fixture list today with eight games to enjoy, and we start with Leicester hosting Manchester City. We have the shortest price of the day here as City are trading 1.32 at the time of writing – they will be fully expected to win here, but Leicester have put a couple of wins together. Those wins were massive for Leicester from a relegation battle point of view, but there performances have been dreadful. It seems strange to say that about winning 4-0 away to Wolves, but they really took their chances that day! They still conceded an xG of 2.01 – that’s the highest xG Wolves have managed this season by a distance and we all know they have been pretty average going forward this season. It was a similar story in the win over Leeds here too – they won 2-0 but conceded an xG of close to double what they created.
Manchester City were held to a 0-0 draw midweek in the Champions League which was disappointing, but that point basically means they will top their Group. While their performance level hasn’t really dipped, City do come into this game with only one win in their last four games in all competitions which is obviously very unlike them! Leicester have been so poor this season it’s hard to see anything other than a City win here. I wouldn’t fancy lumping on the 1.32, indeed I would probably stay away from those odds even for an Acca, and I’m happy to focus on the side markets here. While Leicester have been scoring goals lately, they haven’t been from clear cut chances. In that department, they are still struggling and I feel City can keep a clean sheet here. I was surprised to see Both Teams To Score trading odds on at 1.88, and I’m happy to start the weekend with Both Teams Not To Score at 2.04. I’d expect to see City dominate the game and Leicester won’t see much of the ball.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiMci
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BOURNEMOUTH V TOTTENHAM
3pm We have a very busy afternoon with five games kicking off at 3pm! We start with Bournemouth hosting Spurs, and it’s fair to say Spurs are having a mini crisis at the moment. We obviously had VAR drama at the end of their draw with Sporting Lisbon midweek in the Champions League, and to be fair to Spurs they did create the better chances right throughout the game. It was just unlucky, and when you watch the fan videos from the stands you do understand the “VAR is sucking the fun out of football” debate. VAR is basically taking too long to decide in my opinion, and while there’s no getting rid of VAR they could speed it up to increase the fan experience. Spurs still sit top of their Champions League Group, but there’s only two points between all four sides now and they will be under immense pressure next week. They arrive into this fixture having lost their last two Premier League games, outplayed by Manchester United and Newcastle – the Newcastle result was definitely more disappointing given it came at home, but I think it’s fair to say that Spurs (and Conte!) just need something to do their way at the moment. If they failed to win here and got a dodgy VAR or Ref decision I could really see things blowing up – especially with Conte who stormed out of the press conference on Wednesday night.
From that point of view, it’s a good thing they are playing a side like Bournemouth. They will be expected to win, but that brings its own pressure on a poor run. Spurs have been reasonably poor away from home recently too. They managed to win at Brighton recently, but they conceded a higher xG figure than they created. Their last four away performances in the Premier League have finished with xG figures of 0.84, 0.63, 1.59 and 1.30. They have had to play Man United and Arsenal in that run, but Spurs finished ahead of them last season. After putting together a decent unbeaten run, Bournemouth have now lost back-to-back fixtures against Southampton and West Ham. They didn’t play too badly against Southampton here, but they deserved to lose against West Ham. I would expect them to try and keep things very tight here, and with Spurs struggling to create chances away from home I like Under 2.5 goals here at 2.0. Spurs also look a little short at 1.73, but Unders is the better value bet in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouTot
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BRENTFORD V WOLVES
3pm Next we have Brentford hosting Wolves as the pressure increases on Wolves with each passing week. They start this Matchday sitting in the bottom three and although they didn’t play badly against Leicester last weekend, the 4-0 loss really puts them in the relegation picture. Ironically, they created the highest xG figure of the season finishing the game with an xG of 2.01. They will be hoping to continue to create chances like that, but unfortunately figures like that have been too few and far between for Wolves these days. With Leicester picking up points with back-to-back wins, all the pressure goes to Wolves and Leeds in the relegation battle. Not only that, but Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have produced some results in recent weeks to give them new hope – they are still both odds on to go down, but one of them could easily survive meaning Wolves and Leeds are both in trouble. There aren’t many positive for Wolves this season, but their main issue has been conceding sloppy goals which will be music to the ears of Brentford fans. Brentford might not have got the results they have deserved at home in the Premier League since they came up, but you can’t knock their performances.
They would have been gutted to lose 4-0 to Aston Villa last weekend, but they played very well here against Chelsea in their last game. Last season they were very unlucky here against Chelsea too, and this time around they created an xG of nearly three times what they conceded in the 0-0 draw. They haven’t really put in a very disappointing performance at home this season – they were outplayed by Arsenal but Arsenal are having a great season – other than that we have had xG figures of 1.75, 2.57, 2.85, 1.81 and 1.47 from Brentford at home. With Wolves struggling to create chances so much this season, I can only see a comfortable home win here and I’m happy to take the 2.28 on Brentford to get the job done. With each passing week the pressure is only going to grow on Wolves unless they can get some results!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Brentford to beat Wolves at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreWol
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BRIGHTON V CHELSEA
3pm Graham Potter meets his old club next as Brighton host Chelsea. We have the most open market of the day here, and it is a fascinating situation. Brighton haven’t managed a win in their last five games but they have been playing some very good football. While Chelsea have put together an unbeaten run now under Potter, but their away performances have been worrying. Apart from the 2-0 win away to AC Milan in the Champions League, Chelsea just haven’t fired away from home. They grinded out a 2-1 away to Red Bull Salzburg midweek in the Champions League but again that wasn’t too impressive. As I said in the Brentford game, they conceded an xG of nearly three times what they created in that 0-0 draw and prior to that they conceded an xG of 2.65 to Aston Villa which was an incredible high figure to concede to a limited side like Villa – that was when Steven Gerrard was still in charge too. Brighton have had the opposite run – in fairness to them they have had to play Liverpool, Spurs and Manchester City within their last five games but they have been unlucky too! They took a 2-0 lead an Anfield, but probably would have been happy with a draw in fairness. They lost 1-0 to Spurs, but created an xG of nearly double what Spurs managed and then also finished the 2-0 loss to Brentford with a higher xG figure than they created. Their most unlucky result came here with the 0-0 draw to Nottingham Forest because they finished the game with an xG of 2.34.
It might be a surprise for some casual football fans to see such an open market here, but if you look at the underlining numbers I would actually have Brighton favourites here. Chelsea look a little short at 2.6 based on their away performances recently. It’s clear to me who is creating more, and while eventually you have to say Brighton must start to take their chances, I’m happy with the Chelsea lay here at the odds. Brighton have been playing like a top side this season and they can get a result here. The main negative is probably Potter obviously knows this Brighton side very well, so he will probably be able to set his Chelsea side up perfectly but their away performances have been so average I’m still happy with a small lay on the away win here.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Brighton at 2.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriChe
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CRYSTAL PALACE V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm When you look at all the fixtures in the Premier League today, this is the one that might get lost amongst all the drama. This is definitely only getting a brief highlight package on Match Of The Day! Despite that view, it’s a big game for Crystal Palace and Southampton who aren’t far away from the relegation zone. With Nottingham Forest and Leicester collecting a few points recently, all the sides in the bottom three started the weekend with nine points. Southampton only have 12 and Crystal Palace 13 – they aren’t sitting comfortable anyway. You would expect Crystal Palace to have too much quality in their squad to go down, but Southampton will be involved in the relegation battle at some stage this season. You could argue that they are already in it given they started the weekend sitting in 16th. They looked in big trouble a couple of week ago, but they have put together three results. They have been very lucky, but five points from three games is a massive boost for them. They conceded an xG of 2.05 to West Ham in the 1-1 draw and then conceded an xG of close to three times what they created in the draw against Arsenal. The game against Bournemouth was close, but to be fair to them they grinded out a 1-0 win.
Crystal Palace have been poor this season by their standards. They seem far more comfortable at home compared to away this season, and that could be a huge factor here. They have only lost to Chelsea and Arsenal here this season, and they didn’t play that badly against Chelsea either. Away from home they have thrown in some shocking performances, including conceding an xG of 4.17 and somehow getting a draw against Newcastle. It’s likely that Palace can shade this one, but I was surprised to see them trading as short as 2.0. It’s hard to make the case that they should be odds on here – I know Southampton are limited but Crystal Palace are hardly doing much impressive work either. I’m going to take a chance on the draw here at 3.65 between two sides who don’t really create much.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CrySou
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NEWCASTLE V ASTON VILLA
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Newcastle hosting Aston Villa. As I said last week in my preview of the Villa game, it was going to be fascinating to see the reaction of the players after Steven Gerrard got sacked after losing to Fulham. It was hard to tell whether or not he had lost the dressing room, but now we see the players weren’t giving max effort under him in my opinion. A 4-0 hammering of Brentford sends a huge message, especially given they completely bossed the game finishing with an xG of 3.48. That performance wasn’t even close to anything else they’ve produced this season, and it will be interesting to see can they follow it up now against a top class Newcastle side. Villa had another boost midweek when they confirmed Unai Emery had accept the offer to be manager – I felt they were aiming high when they were mentioning him but obviously he was happy to leave Villarreal behind after two years there. The next few weeks will obviously be very interesting from a Villa point of view, but the reality is that they are still in the relegation mix at the moment. They are definitely too good to go down, but they start the weekend only three points off the bottom three.
I have to say Newcastle have really impressed me this season. They started the weekend sitting just inside the Top Four and they could be even higher too because they have been unlucky at times. As I mentioned above they finished a 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace with an xG of 4.17! They have been very good at home this season – they are unbeaten and they could have better results too; they had to accept a 1-1 draw with Bournemouth but finished with an xG of 1.76 for example. They’ve only lost once all season, and that was away to Liverpool. Obviously we all know Newcastle have only improved because of the new owners and all the cash, but it has been a remarkably quick improvement – I thought it would take a few seasons before they started breaking into the Europa League spots. I’m going to limit stakes here because of the Villa performance after Gerrard was sacked, but Newcastle have been playing at levels above this Villa side this season and they should get the job done here. We landed a Max Bet on Newcastle recently, but three points feels the right stake here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Newcastle to beat Aston Villa at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewAst
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FULHAM V EVERTON
5.30pm We have two evening games this Saturday, the first of which is Fulham hosting Everton. At the start of the season many football fans would have called this fixture a relegation battle but it hasn’t turned out that way. Everton have definitely improved from last season, and Fulham have made a fantastic start to life in the Premier League again. They started the weekend sitting in 7th in between Manchester United and Liverpool – who would have thought that at the start of the season! Fulham come into this fixture full of confidence with six goals in two games, and they could have made that run better because they drew 2-2 with Bournemouth prior to beating Aston Villa and Leeds. They will view this fixture as an excellent chance to pick up another three points, but we have a pretty open market here. Fulham come into the game as favourites at 2.42 which is fully understandable given they have home advantage and have been playing well this season. The big worry about Fulham however is that they are conceding far too many chances – their current average xG conceded is 2.1 which is way too big. If they continue with stats like that they will drop out of the top half of the table.
Everton aren’t performing much better at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.8, but they are massively over-performing in that department. Their actual average conceded is 1.0 which is a huge difference. At some point sides are going to start taking their chances against Everton. It’s no surprise that we have an open market, but it was a surprise to see Over 2.5 goals trading as high at 1.92 given all the chances these two have been conceding. Fulham games have been very entertaining this season too, and I can see fireworks if we get an early goal here. On the face of it some football fans might complain that this fixture took one of the prime TV slots this weekend, but given they are both conceding so many chances I think we’ll see a very entertaining game!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulEve
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LIVERPOOL V LEEDS
7.45pm We have a late game to enjoy in the Premier League this Saturday as Liverpool host Leeds! Liverpool are trading at one of the shortest prices of the weekend, and everyone will be expecting a smooth home win here. As we know though Liverpool have been having major issues this season – they have been conceding so many sloppy goals and they just aren’t playing well enough to get results. Even though Liverpool fans will point to their xG figure of 2.52 against Nottingham Forest without scoring, they conceded an xG of 2.44 which is very high to be conceding against a side like Forest. Most of the Liverpool issues stem from being poor at the back this season, and it looks like the side lost a bit of confidence too. I wouldn’t be taking the 1.35 on Liverpool here and I wouldn’t recommend them for any Acca this weekend either. If Leeds were playing a little better, it might be an option to lay Liverpool at such short odds. Leeds arrive to Anfield without a win in their last eight games though, and they haven’t had a tricky fixture list either. They were unlucky to lose at home to Arsenal because they finished with an xG of 2.35 in a 1-0 loss, but apart from that performance they have been great lately.
Liverpool need a confidence boosting win in the Premier League in my opinion – something like a 3-0 or 4-0 win without any drama. Even in their 1-0 win over West Ham it was still chaos at the back conceding an xG of 2.63 which was more than they created. Leeds aren’t exactly the best side for a “quiet” game because they usually like to play an open game. With Liverpool trading so short in the match odds market, we’re going to have to look to the side markets for some value here. Over 2.5 goals is trading very short at 1.4 so the market is fully expecting goals here – although I feel we will see goals, I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.4! That looks a few ticks short to me to be honest. When you look at the Liverpool xG figures everything screams an open game, and Both Teams To Score looks worth a small investment at 1.7. Liverpool have been conceding so many chances this season Leeds can get on a score sheet at some stage.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivLee
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